Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -1.5
Orlando is 15-5 in their last 20 games overall and are clearly the superior team in this showdown with the Memphis Grizzlies. Four of their five losses during this stretch came against the top teams in the league, and they aren't about to lose to a .500 team like the Grizzlies. The Magic have won each of their last two meetings with Memphis by 15 and 17 points, respectively. That 17-point victory came earier this season as they shut down the Grizzlies by a final of 89-72.
This play falls into a system that is 93-50 (65%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs (Memphis) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 75 points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Orlando is 27-15 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 54-29 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Take Orlando Monday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Louisville Cardinals +4.5
Louisville is an impressive 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games as a road underdog or pick, including 26-14 under Pitino. If valued as a road dog of 6 points or less, the Cards are a dominant 18-7 ATS under coach Pitino. They are only losing these contests by an average of 1.5 points. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series, and the road squad gets the call again tonight. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -8.5
The Pacers are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run at home in this series, winning these games by an average score of 120-104. The Pacers already own a 24-point home win over the Raptors this season. Revenge doesn't appear to be in the cards for Toronto tonight when you consider that plays against underdogs (TORONTO) looking to avenge a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, if they are an extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 75-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Indiana is an impressive 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 11.6 points. Expect the Pacers to play hard for interim coach Frank Vogel to get the win and cover tonight. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* Cavaliers/Heat UNDER 200.5
Reasons why Cavaliers/Heat will go under 200.5
1) Play under - all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Miami) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games, as its 33-8 over the last 5 seasons.
2) Miami is 12-2 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.
3) Under is 7-3 in Heat last 10 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Ray Monohan
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas -1½
Texas will snap their 6-game losing streak at Texas A&M tonight folks. This season Texas has been one of the best betting teams in the nation at 13-3 ATS. Texas is a tough and physical team that ranks 6th in the nation in RPG. These 2 teams played January 19th at Texas and the Longhorns won convincingly 81-60. In that game Longhorns out-rebounded A&M and shot a lights out 58% from the field. Texas A&M (17-3) has lost 2 of their last 3 games and tonight they host a Texas (18-3) squad that is in first place in the Big 12 and has yet to lose a conference game. A&M took a loss last game out to Nebraska and could be headed for a nose dive yet again. Texas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60% and Texas A&M is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Texas is easily the best team in the Big 12 and I'll gladly give the points in this matchup.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Clippers -3
It took Los Angeles (18-28) seven weeks to get going, but it's done exactly that behind Blake Griffin's emergence as one of the league's most dynamic players. The Clippers are 13-7 since a 5-21 start, and much of that turnaround has coincided with making Staples Center a legitimate home-court advantage. Saturday's 103-88 victory over Charlotte - highlighted by 24 points and 10 rebounds from Griffin - was Los Angeles' eighth in a row at home, tying the 1992-93 team for the longest streak since the team moved from San Diego. Not only are the Clippers 8-0 in their last 8 home games, they are also a very profitable 7-1 ATS. Getting them as just a 3-point home favorite tonight is an absolute gift from odds makers, and we'll gladly take advantage. Take the Clippers and lay the points.
Mark Franco
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -3
We know the Jazz have not been playing good ball and they could have star guard Deron Williams out again but the Utah cast will pick up their play tonight. Utah, which has won four straight overall versus the Bobcats, has also taken the last four home meetings by an average of 18.8 points. The Jazz are 12-3 at EnergySolutions Arena when holding teams to 100 points or less. Charlotte's 92.5 points per game scored on the road rank 27th in the league.
JR O'Donnell
Grizzlies +1.5
These 31-17 Orlando Magic check in here off an easy wire to wire 103-87 victory vs the poor Cleveland Cavs Sunday... They now take the show on the road & the #'s are a super strong play against tonight. They are laying that super short 1.5 # to a focused Memphis Grizzlies ball club. They are road weary & are playing 3 games in 4 nights. How about 4-8 ATS on back to back games & 9-14-1 ATS on the road. The 24-24 Grizzlies are 7-1 Su vs these Magic in this spot & 12-6 in the Series. The Grizzlies are the sharp side tonight. The O'ster feels that the public will lay the short spot {1.5} here and the sharps & Jr O will pound the home town boys. Jameer Nelson & G. Arenas are both banged up "knees" and that is a HUGE negative for the tired" Visitors" tonight.
Dan Bebe
NJ Nets +3
5th game in 7 days on the Nuggets road trip, coming off a streak-snapping loss in Philadelphia yesterday. Jersey looking to show they don't need Carmelo, and have been hot at home. Denver looking ahead to getting home and playing Portland.
Michael Cannon
Toronto at INDIANA (-8')
Take the Pacers as the big home chalk over the Raptors.
This series has been dominated by the home team, with the host winning and covering nine straight.
Indiana has won five straight over Toronto at Conseco Fieldhouse.
The Raptors are not a very good team to being with, and their level of effectiveness drops off considerably when they hit the road.
Lay the points with the Pacers for the win and cover.
3♦ INDIANA
Chris Jordan
Orlando (-1') at MEMPHIS
Right here tonight, for your complimentary winner, I'm playing a cheap number on Orlando against Memphis.
Since the Grizzlies are playing so well, it looks as if the oddsmakers are going to put up a number that favors the much-better Magic in this contest.
I agree, Memphis is putting in work - it overcame a 21-point deficit to win at Philly, 99-94, and then trampled Washington, 107-93, this past weekend - but I'm not going to fall into any trap with this one.
The Magic are out for a little revenge on this team, as the Grizzlies have won two straight against Orlando when the two meet in Memphis.
In fact, the home team is 5-0 the last five meetings, and 8-2 the last 10.
But in the teams' only meeting this season, it was all Orlando, winning 89-72 back in November.
And with the Magic in after yesterday's 16-point thumping of the Cavaliers, they should be warmed up for a Memphis team that will be playing its fourth game in six nights - including two on the road. Dating back to the 21st, this is this will be the seventh game in 11 nights spanning five cities.
Point blank - the Grizzlies are tired!
Lay the small road chalk here.
2♦ ORLANDO
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee (+4) at LOS ANGELES
I am 6-0 on my last six NBA free selections. I'm looking to run my hot streak to 7-0 backing the road underdog Milwaukee Bucks against the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers have won eight in a row at home. They are much improved thanks to Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, Gordon is out for probably at least another couple of weeks with a wrist injury. The Clippers are 1-2 without Gordon, who ranked eighth in scoring at 24.1 points a game.
The Bucks are playing better now with three consecutive victories. Brandon Jennings, their scoring leader and assists leader, returned in Milwaukee's last game - a 10-point victory against New Jersey - after missing more than a month because of a broken foot.
Jennings averages 17.9 points and 5.5 assists. He's a major upgrade on journeyman point guard Keyon Dooling. While the return of Jennings is the big story, the Bucks also recently welcomed back Carlos Delfino.
Delfino is a key for the Bucks because of his outside shooting. He had missed 32 games due to concussion-like symptoms and a neck strain. Delfino led Milwaukee in scoring against New Jersey with 21 points. It's just an added plus for the Bucks if John Salmons is able to play in this matchup.
Milwaukee surrenders nine fewer points per game than the Clippers. The Bucks rank fourth in defense and eighth in defensive field goal percentage.
Offense has been the Bucks' problem. But center Andrew Bogut should be able to exploit the Clippers' weak interior and with Jennings and Delfino back, look for the Bucks to put up a solid point total. Milwaukee has scored at least 98 points in four of their last seven games.
Milwaukee is 15-2 when scoring 96 or more points. Los Angeles gives up an average of 101.5 points a game. The Clippers have yielded at least 107 points during five of their past seven games.
1♦ MILWAUKEE
Scott Delaney
MIlwaukee at LOS ANGELES (-4)
Yes, the Bucks have won three in a row.
But the Clippers have won eight straight at Staples Center - which is more than I can say about their Purple and Gold roommates - and have the modern-day human highlight film.
What used to be Dominique Wilkins' nickname, can now be attributed to Blake Griffin, who has easily emerged as the league's most intriguing player.
Los Angeles opened the season a dismal 5-21, but has since won 13 of 20, including Saturday's 103-88 rout of surging Charlotte.
I'm well aware of the Bucks' goals before the All-Star Break, and know they're sitting just one-half game back of Charlotte for the eighth seed in the East, but they're treading in dangerous territory tonight, as 1111 South Figueroa Street has become a legitimate threat to visitors of the Clippers.
Lay the points.
2♦ LOS ANGELES
Derek Mancini
Orlando at MEMPHIS (+1')
Following an easy Free Play winner on the 76ers over the Nuggets last night, let's get tonight's comp selection...
In case you haven't noticed the Grizz are playing some damn good basketball, which explains why they are only slight dogs against one of the East's elite, the Magic, tonight. The public may be excited to get Orlando at this price, but I see right through this line... Oddsmakers are begging for Magic money, and I for one am not taking the bait!
In order to breakdown this match up, you have to understand why Memphis is playing better basketball, and it comes down to one thing: Defense. The Grizz are finally giving the kind of effort we've always expected from a nicely built roster full of solid athletes. Memphis is allowing just 91 ppg on 43% shooting over their L5 games, and what's scary is 4 of those 5 games were on the road, where the Grizz have traditionally struggled. Now back at home, they turned on the offense against Washington Saturday, and are now playing the kind of ball you need to play to compete with Orlando.
Two more things bother me about the Magic in this spot: 1. they're playing without rest, where they're just 4-8 ATS this season in that spot. And 2. They've got a huge match up with Miami on deck. So you've got both the fatigue factor and the lookahead factor coming into play tonight at Memphis. Bad situational spot and a line begging for Orlando money tells me that the play here is the Grizz. Take Memphis plus the points over Orlando Monday.
2♦ MEMPHIS
Karl Garrett
Louisville (+5) at GEORGETOWN
Your Monday free play comes out of the Big East tonight as I take the points with the Cardinals in their game against the Hoyas.
Both schools pulled off road upset wins on Saturday, as Louisville went overtime before upsetting Connecticut, while the Hoyas were able to leave Villanova with the underdog outright on Saturday.
Give me the points in this one, as the visiting team has won 4 of the last 6 series meetings outright, and it is the Cards that are on a 3-1 series spread run the last 4 times these teams have clashed.
The Hoyas have been on-fire of late, winning and covering their last 4, but they are just 3-5 against the spread their last 8 when laying points.
G-Man expects a close one tonight with the points and the visitor working at the ticket window.
Take the Redbrds in this one.
2♦ LOUISVILLE
Chuck O'Brien
Texas at TEXAS A&M
For Monday’s complimentary college basketball selection, play Texas-Texas A&M UNDER the total.
Let’s start with the fact that both these teams have been “under” machines all season long, combining for an 18-8-1 “under” record in lined contests. Breaking that down further, Texas has stayed low in seven of its first eight road games, while the under is 3-1-1 for the Aggies at home.
Since an 82-81 non-conference overtime loss to UConn on Jan. 8, the Longhorns have been playing unbelievable defense, giving up 52, 46, 60, 63, 46 and 58 points, all in Big 12 action. And their last four opponents (Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Missouri) are all solid teams.
Meanwhile, the Aggies have held seven of their last nine opponents to 57 points or less, giving up an average of 53.6 ppg in those seven particular contests. And A&M’s last two games resulted in final scores of 64-56 (home win vs. Kansas State) and 57-48 (road loss at Nebraska).
Now, it’s true that prior to its last two outings, Texas A&M got smoked 81-60 at Texas. And it’s true that that contest cleared the posted total (one of just a handful of “overs” each team has been involved in this season). However, prior to this year, this rivalry had been on a 4-1 “under” streak.
Texas is still on “under” runs of 5-1 since conference play started, 4-0 on the road and 14-5 in these national TV Monday games. A&M carries “under” streaks of 10-3-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home, 5-0 following a loss and 5-2 on Monday.
Two outstanding defensive squads take control of this contest, and barring overtime, I’ll be shocked if either of those squads gets to 60.
3♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Texas (-1') at TEXAS A&M
For my comp selection, Texas has been rolling in Big 12 action this season, winning its first six games, including a January 19 victory over rival Texas A&M at home, winning 81-60 as a 6½-point favorite. Now two weeks later these teams are squaring off again and I’m looking for the same sort of outcome – a big Texas victory. Lay the chalk and go with the Longhorns.
Texas crushed Missouri 71-58 on Saturday as a 7 ½-point favorite and this team is a perfect 3-0 on the road in the Big 12. The Longhorns have already gone to Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma State and walked away with victories. The nine-point win at Kansas was quite impressive, getting the job done as a seven-point underdog. This team also owns a win at Michigan State, a very tough place to play for a non-conference contest.
Texas A&M has dropped two of its last three and fell at Nebraska on Saturday, 57-48, as a 1 ½-point underdog. The Aggies are a perfect 12-0 at home this season, but Texas has no problem ending streaks on the opponents court – ask the Jayhawks.
The Longhorns are on ATS surges of 13-3 overall, 28-12 on Mondays, 6-0 in Big 12 play, 5-0 on the road and 5-0 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Texas has allowed just 54.6 points per game over its last five and held the opponents to 36.4 percent shooting. I like the way this team is going right now and will lay the points with them tonight. Play Texas.
3♦ TEXAS
Joel Tyson
Texas at TEXAS A&M (+1')
Free play tonight is to go with Texas A&M to hold serve at home versus Texas.
The Longhorns won 81-60 against the Aggies on January 19th in Austin to move the home team to a perfect 10-0 straight up the last 10 times these Big 12 rivals have met. The host is also 15-5-1 against the spread the last 21 times the schools have tangled.
Have to stick with the host to get some revenge here, as A&M is a perfect 12-0 straight up at home, going 3-1-1 against the spread in their lined home games.
Texas has been playing on another level of late, ripping off 6 straight wins and covers (including that 21 point win over the Aggies), but I feel they will not be able to sustain that high level of play this evening against the revenging host.
Take the Aggies as the small home dog.
3♦ TEXAS A&M