Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday June, 4

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona returns home following a 3-3 roadtrip which wasn't ideal but after losing the first two games, it did finish strong. The Diamondbacks have not been playing well at home but the schedule has been tough as they have played some very solid teams. They have won three of their last four at home and they have hit .261 on the season and the offense should again thrive tonight. The Diamondbacks are 24-9 in their last 33 home games against teams with a losing record. After a dreadful 5-17 run, the Rockies bounced back with a strong homestand, going 6-1 but the road has not been kind this season as they are 8-15 on the highway. Both pitching and hitting have been horrendous as Colorado is hitting .229 while the team ERA is 4.55, both of which are in the bottom eight in all of baseball. The Rockies have won only three road series openers on the year and they are 27-55 in their last 82 games as road underdogs of +150 or less. After a great start to the season, Joe Saunders has had a rough go of it as he has only one quality outing over his last four starts. He still has a solid 3.61 ERA through 10 starts with six of those being quality efforts. This is the perfect team to get things going again as he is 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against the Rockies with six of those being quality outings including the last four. The Diamondbacks are 10-2 in Saunders' last 12 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Rockies counter with Christian Friedrich who started his rookie season great but has faltered since. He opened with two straight quality starts, allowing just one earned run in each game but he has been hit hard over his last three starts. He has posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over those three games and while his control has been pretty spot on, he has allowed 27 hits over this stretch. None of this bodes well here as Colorado is 9-24 in the last 33 meetings at Arizona.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals

The Royals fit a nice system here that has won 11 of the last 14 times and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win and scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog win like the Twins are. The Twins have dropped 7 of 10 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 and have Devries making the start. He has a 5.40 road era in his lone road start. Tonight he takes on W. Smith who makes his first road start after a nice bounce back start at Cleveland last out allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings. Look for KC to take game one.

Ben Burns

Rangers @ Athletics
PICK: Over 7.5

Both these teams saw good starting pitching in their games on Saturday. The A's were on the wrong side of a 2-0 loss at KC. The Rangers are up 2-1 heading to the 6th inning, at LA, as I write this. I expect to see more runs on Monday night though and feel that the O/U line of 7.5 will prove to be too low.

Feldman is 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in four starts. The "over" is 2-1-1 in those games and he's averaged less than five innings. His last start was vs. Seattle and finished with a score of 10-3. His lone road start saw him allow five runs in 4 1/3 innings. That translates to a 10.39 ERA. Walking five in that short span didn't help matters.

Feldman can't be too happy to see the A's. In his last three starts vs. Oakland, he's allowed 20 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings. He took the loss in all three of those games. Each game produced a minimum of nine combined runs. Feldman allowed seven earned runs in each of his last two starts here at Oakland, those games finishing with scores of 7-6 and 12-3.

Parker has a much better ERA than Feldman. In fact, he's got an impressive 2.88 mark on the season. His 29/21 K/W ratio is less than impressive though and his WHIP (1.352) is only mediocre. I expect his ERA to start climbing and feel this may be the game that it does.

The "over" is 13-6-1 the last 20 meetings between these teams. Consider the Over.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Ryan Vogelsong just hasn't had it against the Chicago Cubs, as he is 3-5 with a 6.19 ERA against them. The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the National League West while the Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Chicago has a good young arm on the mound in Jeff Samardzija (5-3, 3.09 ERA), who has fanned 65 in 64 innings and faces a light hitting San Francisco team. Play the Cubs.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Never easy to go against Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers are struggling currently and I don't mind taking Vance Worley at plus money, especially at home. I'm going with the Phillies for Monday's free play.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

San Francisco/ Chicago Under 7: Jeff Samardzija has been pitching very well for the Cubs this year as he has a 3.09 ERA overall, while in his last 3 road starts he has allowed just 4 total ER's He hasn't faced the Giants before, which gives him the Edge here, plus the Giants are just not a good offensive team in their own park as they have averaged just 3.1 rpg at home this year. Ryan Vogelsong has been hot of late, as he has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of this last 6 games, while posting an ERA of 1.51 over that stretch. Ryan has also pitched well at home with a 1.31 ERA, while his home starts have averaged a mere 4.6 rpg. He should have no problems keeping those numbers intact vs a Cubs team that has averaged just 3.3 rpg on the road this year, while in this series they have put up just 4 total runs in the 3 games. Lets also note that not one of the last 8 in this series has put up more than 7 runs in a game. I expect a pitchers duel in San Fran this afternoon.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Oklahoma City/ San Antonio Over 202: Game 5 expects to be high-scoring again as the Thunder are putting up 101.5 PPG on 46.4% FG in the 2012 playoffs, while the Spurs are even more explosive at 102.2 PPG on 48.6% FG. Both teams have really been shooting the ball well in the series and they have really been looking to push the pace. 7 of the last 10 in this series has put up at least 203 points, while those 10 games have averaged 206.2 ppg, including an average of 211.5 ppg being scored in the last 4 games played here. The Spurs have averaged 106.3 ppg at home this year, while the Thunder has averaged 100.3 ppg on the road, so both teams really have the ability to hit the century mark in this one. Defensively the Spurs have struggled of late, allowing 103.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Thunder has allowed 99.3 ppg in their last 7 overall and 103.4 ppg in their last 5 road games if these playoffs. I expect this one to approach 210 points and go OVER the total with ease.

Oklahoma City +5 over SAN ANTONIO: I know the Spurs have outscored their foes by 12 ppg at home, but I believe the season is starting to take its toll on this team, especially on the defensive side as the Spurs have now allowed 103.8 ppg in their last 5 games. The Thunder have a great flow offensively and they know that the Spurs may be on the ropes here a bit right now, so they should really push tempo here and that should tire the Spurs out in the 4th. I expect the Thunder to come up more than enough offense to keep this one close or maybe even win it outright.

SPORTS WAGERS

LOS ANGELES -½ +114 over New Jersey

The Kings have shown a killer instinct throughout this post-season by winning crucial Game 3's in each round after after going up 2-0 in all of them. The Devils' psyche comes into question here after losing two games in OT and being unable to beat Jonathon Quick. Quick is so locked in right now that he’s in the kitchen of the Devils. New Jersey is passing the puck when they should be shooting because they’re not confident they can beat Quick. This is a frustrated Devils team that has their work cut out for them. The Devils have played two seven-game series, one six-game series and two in this set for a total of 22 games played in the playoffs. The Kings have one sweep, two five-game series and two games here for a total of 16 games played. That’s equivalent to an extra series for the Devils and it’s a factor, especially when traveling to Los Angeles and playing in front of an expected frenzied crowd. The Kings have the Devils by the throat. They have a big psychological edge, a big home ice edge, a significant goaltending edge and now it’s time to put this visitor away. No OT here. Play: Los Angeles -½ +114 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +117 over ARIZONA

Colorado has won six of seven and current hitters have some pretty sweet numbers against Joe Saunders that include a .296 BA, a .354 OBP and a .835 OPS in 135 combined AB’s. Saunders is a great example of a favorite that should be avoided in most instances. 2011 was pure hit% and strand%-driven luck. His xERA shows he's the same guy that hasn't delivered acceptable numbers for four years running. Saunders overachieving allows us another opportunity to fade him while taking back a tag and we’re not about to miss it. Christian Friedrich has a 5.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after his first five starts of the season. Those numbers are misleading. His skills have been fantastic with 32 K’s in 29 innings with just eight walks issued. Blame a 42% hit rate and 64% strand for his early struggles. Friedrich has significant profit potential and if all things are equal, it begins here. Play: Colorado +117 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +129 over SAN FRANCISCO

Ryan Vogelsong returned to the majors last season after spending four full seasons in Japan. This was as unlikely a return to MLB as we may ever see, as Vogelsong was better in his return than anything he showed in his prior MLB or Japan stints. Age, xERA and a poor history suggest that his success will be short lived. A 2.50/4.34 ERA/xERA split this year indicates high risk and not a situation to be backing him in this price range. The Cubs haven’t hit too many pitchers well but Ryan Vogelsong is one they have. Current Cubbies have 11 hits in 40 career AB’s (.275) versus Vogelsong with a .475 slugging % and a .808 OPS. While the Cubs have their struggles, Jeff Samardzija provides them their best chance to win. Samardzija has the second highest fastball velocity in the NL behind Stephen Strasburg. His 94.7 mph fastball has helped him strike out 65 batters in 64 frames. His 3.09 ERA comes with full skills support and you won’t find a pitcher in the league that is more under the radar than this outstanding young righty. Play: Chicago +129 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

LA Dodgers -127

Monday we go Los Dodgers - 127 as the Boys in Blue hang up # 6 right here for all!!!!!!!!!!!Tonight's first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM EST as the LA Dodgers visit the Philadelphia Phillies. Dodgers behind lefty Clayton Kershaw are a -127 fav, and he has surrendered more than "3" runs only twice in "11" starts. His mound foe Vince Worley has-been OK at late, but has been suspect to the log ball, allowing one every 6 & 2/3's innings. Dodgrs have lost three in a row for the first time and it ends tonight. Phillies are 6-9 vs.. any LHP, much less a good one like Kershaw!