Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 11

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 neutral site games. Gonzaga is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-5)

Game 511-512: James Madison vs. Northeastern (7:00 p.m. EST)
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Game 513-514: Western Kentucky vs. Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
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Game 515-516: Central Michigan at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 47.103; Buffalo 58.284
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 11
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-7 1/2)

Game 517-518: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 40.566; Eastern Michigan 47.524
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 7
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+8 1/2)

Game 519-520: Miami (OH) at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 46.961; Bowling Green 51.705
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+7)

Game 523-524: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 69.025; Gonzaga 75.956
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 7; 134
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 5; 138
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-5); Under

Game 525-526: IPFW vs. South Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST)
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Game 527-528: North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois (9:30 p.m. EST)
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Game 529-530: College of Charleston vs. Davidson (7:00 p.m. EST)
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Game 531-532: Manhattan vs. Iona (9:00 p.m. EST)
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Game 541-542: Savannah State vs. MD-Eastern Shore (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 46.420; MD-Eastern Shore 35.739
Dunkel Line: Savannah State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Savannah State by 12
Dunkel Pick: MD-Eastern Shore (+12)

Game 543-544: Morgan State vs. South Carolina State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 53.488; South Carolina State 37.442
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 16
Vegas Line: Morgan State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (-13)

Will update later

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Knicks at Golden State WarriorsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Golden State WarriorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Warriors host the Knicks in a non-conference clash Monday night, Golden State will take the floor looking to avenge an earlier loss this season at Madison Square Garden, while returning home off a disappointing 10-point home loss to Milwaukee Friday night. Meanwhile, New York begins the first of a 5-game west coast road swing off a 23-point home win over Utah. With the Warriors 16-10 ATS against Eastern Conference competition this campaign, including 4-0 ATS when off a SUATS loss against a foe off a SUATS win, look for the Warriors to improve to 7-1 ATS in this series as they get their revenge here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Rob Vinciletti

Eastern Michigan -8½

Eastern Michigan is 8-2 ats vs losing teams of late and has covered the last 3 when playing with 1 or less day of rest. Against tams that scored less than 65 per game they have won and covered 3 of the last 4. They are also 6-2 ats off a conference loss. Tonight they take on a Northern Illinois teams that is 0-5 straight up and ats vs opponents that average 64 or less points per game. When playing fellow losing teams they are 1-7 ats. In the series they lost both games this season to Eastern Michigan. However its not that they lost, but how they lost. Both losses were by double digits 12 and 17 point decisions. In those games NIU was held to under 25% shooting twice, one of the time shooting just 13% and scoring 25 points, which is unheard of. I look for another Double digit win here for Eastern Michigan.

Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Gonzaga -5½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While it can be difficult to beat a team three times in the same season, I believe Gonzaga is up to the challenge. The Bulldogs two wins in the regular season over St. Mary's are nice, but this is the one that really matters to them. Gonzaga lost 74-78 in overtime against the Gaels in last year's WCC Championship Game. The key here is that Gonzaga has been getting better and better, which was evident in the most recent meeting between these two teams. After narrowly escaping with a 83-78 home win over the Gaels, Gonzaga went on the road and easily beat St. Mary's 77-60. The Gaels may be able to keep this one close early, but I look for Gonzaga to take control in the second half and win this game by double-digits.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Manhattan vs IonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: IonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Considering how miserably they've shot the basketball through the first two games of the MAAC Tournament, it's kind of amazing to see Manhattan still alive. Not only that, the Jaspers are now a mild upset away from punching a ticket to the Big Dance. There are going to be a load of Cinderella stories over the next handful of days, and some remarkable story lines have already been written. But I see the clock clanging midnight for Manhattan here (I know it's supposed to be the clock striking midnight, but if you've watching this team play, you'll agree clanging is probably a better word.) Iona is equipped to handle pressure they will see from the swarming Manhattan defense, the Gaels should be able to draw plenty of fouls and with the memory of a loss to this team in the last meeting, I can't see any way Iona takes this for granted. Nothing would shock me as far as Manhattan is concerned at this point. They are somehow winning games in about the ugliest fashion I have ever seen. But unless Iona has a bad game or Manhattan suddenly figures out how to make a shot every now and then, I just cannot envision the upset taking place. Iona minus the points to advance to the Dance tonight.

Jim Feist

Knicks at Warriors
Pick: Under

The Golden State Warriors seem to be sputtering of late, losing six of their last eight games and covering just 1 time in the last six and just four times in the last 17 games! The offense has been missing also, scoring 97 or fewer points in five of the last six games and six of the last eight. The Knicks have been up and down with the scoring, totally 113 in their win over the Jazz last time out. However, before that game they broke the century mark in just two of their previous 11 games. The Knicks have gone UNDER in five of their last six games. Injuries have played a part on both teams. Forward David Lee has been nursing a injured knee. Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony also has knee problems and both players are questionable for today's contest. The Knicks are already without forwards Amar'e Stoudemire (knee) and Rasheed Wallace (foot) who are both out. Looking to play UNDER here on Monday, especially if Anthony is out. Neither team will look to push the pace in this one. Take the UNDER.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pistons +9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jazz aren't playing well enough to lay this many points even to a weak foe such as the Pistons. Utah is 1-7 in its last eight games. The Jazz just finished an 0-4 road trip that ended at New York this past Saturday. This is their first home game in 10 days so their minds might be distracted.
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This marks Utah's third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Jazz have been a strong home team, but are just 3-3 during their past six at EnergySolutions Arena. Utah also might be missing underrated Paul Millsap, who missed the Knicks' game this past Saturday with a sore knee. He's a game-time decision.
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The Pistons shouldn't lack for motivation. They were embarrassed, 129-97, by the Clippers last night in Los Angeles. Both Greg Monroe and Jose Calderon expressed frustration with the loss with Monroe saying his team played with no effort. That's a strong criticism that should light a fire. The Pistons also have revenge for blowing a 15-point lead in a 90-87 home loss to Utah.
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Detroit is 3-3 in its last six road matchups defeating Milwaukee, Charlotte and much-improved Washington. The Pistons, when motivated and catching a less-than-elite foe in a slump and in an unfavorable situational spot, can hold its own. Note, too, that the Jazz are just 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami (OH) vs. Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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Miami Ohio is coming off a 58-54 loss at Ohio on the 9th. Will Felder had 20 points; Jon Harris had 13 points and nine boards.
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Bowling Green is coming off a 76-65 win over Buffalo on the 8th. Jordan Crawford had 26 points.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Miami Ohio is just 8-21 SU overall, and a dismal 3-13 away from friendly confines.
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Note that Bowling Green is only 13-18 SU overall, but there's no doubt that it's a "different" team in front of the home town crowd, going 11-4.
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Pick Analysis
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These teams split the season series, with each team winning on its home floor. I believe this strong trend continues here. The RedHawks have lost nine straight. Bowling Green enters the MAC Tournament opener off a convincing effort. I simply can't see Miami Ohio matching the production of the Falcons on the offensive end (BGSU has scored 94 points in the paint over the past two games). The Falcons have also outrebounded five of their last six opponents, and are +52 during the six-game stretch. Consider laying the points on the "better" team!

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Calgary vs. Los AngelesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When we think of these two teams, we think of hard-hitting, great goaltending, low-scoring affairs. That hasn't been the case so far this year. Calgary is 9-10-4 overall, and 3-5-2 on the road. The Flames' O/U is 12-9-2 (Calgary has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four). LA is 13-8-2, and 8-2-1 at home. The Kings' O/U is 10-8-5 (five of LA's last five have gone over the posted number). Four of these teams last five have gone under the number, but I believe this trend gets bucked tonight. In fact, when these clubs got together on March 9th, the Kings skated away with a 6-2 victory in Los Angeles. Two nights later these Western Conference foes are ready to do it all over again. I believe the table is set for another high-scoring shootout. Play on the over.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn at PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brooklyn -5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last season the Philadelphia 76ers were a playoff team. They thought they could live without Andre Iguodala, but they have now seen what an integral part of this team he was. The Sixers are just 1-11 in their last 12 games and lost yesterday at Orlando. They have taken on the look of a team that is just playing out the string. Brooklyn has begun a long needed run as they have taken their last three in resounding fashion. The Nets have won those last three by an average of 16.3 ppg and appear to be a team ready to go on a long run. They have played well on the road of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six. The Sixers have struggled mightily without rest, where they are a woeful 6-20 ATS in their last 26. Play this one on Brooklyn.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver vs. PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I used the Suns Saturday night (a 10* release) as they upset the Rockets here at home. I followed that with a 2-0 Sunday sweep in the NBA and finished 7-2 this weekend in hoops. Back to this game, while Denver is a stronger opponent than Houston, I still feel the road team is overvalued here and I'll take the points as Phoenix looks to spring a second consecutive home upset......
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The Nuggets have won eight straight and have covered the spread in the last five. They have averaged 111.3 PPG during the win streak and have emerged as a dark horse NBA Finals candidate, though we know the reality is they won't get there. With back to back home games coming up against more marquee opponents, New York and Memphis, don't be surprised to see the Nuggets overlook tonight's matchup. The Knicks represent a shot to play former teammate Carmelo Anthony while Memphis is the team they're battling with for home court advantage in the first round.
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While Denver may have won four in a row on the road, they still have a losing record away from home on the season and are giving up 104.3 points per game. This includes a 110-100 loss here in Phoenix early in the year. As I mentioned in my writeup Saturday, Phoenix is a far more competitive team here at home where they've basically played .500 ball all season. I think they can easily stay within the number tonight. Laying this many points on the road, for any team, is dangerous territory.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Marys at GonzagaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: St. MarysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We would have liked a higher line in this one, and if we had we would have likely released St. Mary's as a premium selection. But we still feel there is line value for an underrated St. Mary's team that is playing with double-revenge from two losses against the Zags this season, and we feel they have a shot to win this game outright, or at least keep this one close down to the final moments of the game. St. Mary's fell apart at home against Gonzaga, but they played very well on the road where they lost by just five points despite a poor shooting effort both from beyond the three-point arc and at the free throw line. Gonzaga couldn't have had an easier path to the finals, playing just once and that was against the worst of the WCC (Loyola Marymount) that was playing their fourth game in as many days. They didn't even play that well, winning by just one point at halftime before fatigue set in and the Zags pulled away in the second half. St. Mary's has another crack at the top-ranked team in the country, and after beating Gonzaga last year in this tournament, they play them down to the wire again this year.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah Jazz -9½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jazz have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. They are 22-8 straight up at home and are facing a Detroit team that is really struggling right now having lost 8 of their last 9 games. Detroit has been horrible on the road with an 8-23 record allowing 101.2 points per game.
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The Detroit Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning home record. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Western Conference opponents. Utah is coming off a bad loss to New York and they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a loss by 10 or more points.
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The Pistons have a long history of under-performing against Utah. They are 3-13 ATS in the last 17 head to head meetings between these teams. Utah finally received a day of rest after a four game road stretch and now it is Detroit who will be going through that same kind of agonizing run. The Pistons are playing in a back to back game after getting crushed by the Clippers last night. The well-rested home team is the smart play in this matchup.

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Mary's +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St. Mary's Gaels are gong to be highly motivated for a victory tonight against arch rival Gonzaga in the WCC Championship Game. Not only do they want to erase any doubt about getting into the NCAA Tournament, the Gaels really want payback tonight.
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Gonzaga has won both regular season meetings with St. Mary's. The Bulldogs won 83-78 at home in their first meeting on January 10th before embarrassing the Gaels on the road 77-60 on February 14th. There's no question that St. Mary's has a sour taste in their mouths from those two defeats, so I look for them to dig down deep tonight in the 3rd and final meeting.
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This play falls into a system that is 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on neutral court teams as an underdog (ST MARYS-CA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
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Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons. Randy Bennett is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more as the coach of St. Mary's. Bet the Gaels Monday.