Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday March, 12

Lenny Del Genio

Milwaukee Bucks at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

With PG Deron Williams listed as questionable and C Brook Lopez out yet again, the Nets are impossible to back in this price range, even at home. Milwaukee comes to town having covered four in a row, and has begun to see its scoring pick up with an average of nearly 110 points per game. Their only SU loss over the last four games came on a last second buzzer beater to division rival Chicago. Even more impressive is a 9-0 straight up and against the spread run against New Jersey! Lay the short number. Take Milwaukee.

Vegas Experts

San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers
Play: San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have been swimming in murky waters of late with five straight losses, two of them being shutouts. They have dropped out of playoff position in the West, which is shocking, following a 3-0 loss to division rival Phoenix. Look for them to right the ship tonight at sorry Edmonton. Solid value here with San Jose being the visiting team. This is a double revenge spot for the Sharks against a team with the second fewest points in the league that has lost five of six (only win at San Jose). Two of the Sharks' recent losses came in shootouts, one to the Oilers. As a matter of fact, both losses this year to Edmonton came via a shootout. Take the better team.

Matt Fargo

Charlotte Bobcats vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The worst team in the Eastern Conference takes on the worst team in the Western Conference so while it may be unwatchable, it is not unbettable. Charlotte is coming off a 27-point blowout loss at Oklahoma City which isn't a big surprise and the road has been very unkind to the Bobcats in recent games as they have four road contests have resulted in losses of 27, 30, 15 and 35 points. Three of those games came against playoff teams while the other games was at Detroit which is playing a lot better at home. New Orleans is coming off a rare win on the road at Minnesota and victories have been few and far between and the Hornets have won only eight games since a surprising 2-0 start to the season. They have actually been a better team on the road as the Hornets are only 4-16 on their home floor. Because they are playing an even worse team, they are favored here and this is the most points they have been favored by this season. It has not been a good role as they are 0-5 ATS when laying points, losing all five games outright. Taking a look at the Hornets wins at home and you may be surprised as they have defeated Dallas, Utah, Orlando and Boston and with the exception of the Jazz, that is a very strong group. But what that does show is how much they have stepped down to the level of the opposition as they have not defeated any real bad teams at home. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record and the big line only hurt the chances of that improving. As bad as the Hornets have been, this might be the Bobcats' best chance at a road win the rest of the season and they certainly need it. New Orleans is 5-14 in its 19 games this season coming off a win against the number so it has followed up strong performances with bad one the next time out. This is the first meeting this season between the two teams and while Charlotte has not been good in this series over the years and especially in New Orleans, this is the worst Hornets team it has faced.

Rocketman

Nashville Predators vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Nashville Predators

Nashville is 70-42 last 3 years when playing with revenge. Phoenix is 1-5 this year in March. Predators are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Predators are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Predators are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games. Predators are 24-7 in their last 31 vs. Western Conference. Predators are 42-13 in their last 55 games playing on 1 days rest. Predators are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Predators are 18-6 in their last 24 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Predators are 28-10 in their last 38 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Predators are 39-15 in their last 54 games as a favorite. Predators are 18-7 in their last 25 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Predators are 5-2 in their last 7 overall. Predators are 36-17 in their last 53 games as a road favorite. Coyotes are 5-11 in their last 16 games as a home underdog. Coyotes are 3-9 in their last 12 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Coyotes are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. Central. Coyotes are 1-4 in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Coyotes are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Coyotes are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Coyotes are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite. Road team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Nashville tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Anaheim Ducks vs. Colorado Avalanche
Play: Colorado Avalanche

Colorado has won 7 of 10 this season at home when the posted total is 5 or less including a solid win here at home vs Anaheim on late February. Anaheim comes in tonight knowing they are a lousy 2-13 on the road when the posted total is 5 or less. They have lost 22 of 31 vs winning teams and 13 of 19 off a division game. In games off a loss by 2 or more goals they have followed up by losing 16 of 23. Look for Colorado to take another from Anaheim tonight.

Ben Burns

Boston @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: L.A. Clippers -5.5

The Clippers were upset by Golden State yesterday, scoring only 93 points in the process. That 97-93 final suited me just fine, as I won my *10* "Best Bet" on the "under." Having lost a game they were expected to win, the Clippers figure to be in a foul mood here.

The Celtics also lost a close one yesterday. They did cover the spread but suffered an "emotional loss" against the Lakers. I call it emotional in part as they rallied from a 15 point deficit only to blow it down the stretch. Also, Lakers/Celtics games are always a little extra "special" and yesterday's may well have been the final one with the current group of veteran stars playing against each other.

Ray Allen had this to say: "You come into this rivalry with the mindset that, 'This is it,' It's almost as if this is for the championship every time we play them. It definitely was an entertaining game. ... Competitively speaking, we always will go at each other and play hard. There's talent on both sides, so it's always a great matchup whenever we meet."

Off that emotional setback, the Celtics will now be playing the second of back to back road games, a situation they've been terrible in. I played against the Celtics the last time that they played on the road, after playing the previous day. That was at Philadelphia last Wednesday. Off a win vs. Houston the previous day, the Celtics got destroyed by 32 points.

Including that result, the Celtics are now 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) the last five times that they played the second of back-to-back games. That includes a 0-4 SU/ATS mark on the road. They lost those games by 32, 16, 9 and 12 points.

Even with yesterday's cover, the Celtics are still 4-7 ATS (3-8 SU) against teams from the West. On the other hand, the Clippers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) against teams from the East. With the Clippers also at 9-5 ATS (11-3 SU) the last 14 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, consider laying the points.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Canadiens @ Sabres
PICK: Over 5

Montreal is 27-32-10 (15-17-2 on the road). Buffalo is 32-29-8 (17-11-7 at home). The last time these teams played, Montreal won 4-3 in Buffalo on February 17th, 2012. That high-scoring game was a bit of an oddity though as the O/U is 1-3-1 over the last five in the series.

The Canadiens are coming off a big 4-1 win at Vancouver on Saturday, and will look to build upon that performance in what has pretty much been a miserable season for the team. It's interesting to note that it was still scoreless after the first period, a frame in which the Habs were outshot 15-5. Montreal would hit its stride in the second and third as Erik Cole potted two goals; so too did PK Subban.

The Sabres are coming off a 4-3 shootout win at Ottawa on Saturday. Tyler Ennis scored in regulation, and once in the shootout. Marcus Foligno and Nathan Gerbe also scored. Ryan Miller made 33-saves. With the win Buffalo moved into a tie for ninth place in the East with the Jets.

So while these two teams have historically played to lower-scoring affairs, I think this one does in fact set up nicely as a higher-scoring game.

Both teams have broken out of offensive slumps, and "recent form" has always played a big part in my handicapping repertoire.

Montreal is "hungry" for more positivity; Buffalo is fighting for a playoff spot.

This one sneaks above the posted number!

David Chan

Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes

The 40-21-7 Nashville Predators prowl into Phoenix to take on the 34-25-10 Coyotes.

Pekka Rinne is set to square off against Mike Smith between the pipes.

The Predators are coming off a 3-2 win at Detroit on Saturday.

Andrei Kostitsyn scored twice, with his brother Sergei assisting on both; Patric Hornqvist also scored:

“I feel comfortable because I know Sergei likes to pass to me and is more of a passer than a shooter,” Andrei said. “It’s fun to play together.”

The Coyotes are coming off a 3-0 win over the Sharks on Saturday (it's interesting to note that Phoenix is a near perfect 3-1/+2.4 units, after shutting out their opponent in their previous game this season).

Smith was brilliant, stopping 42-shots in his fifth shutout this year.

Mikkel Boedker, Raffi Torres and Michael Stone scored the goals.

“I did not played my best in the last week, and it’s a tough time of the year not to play up to your potential,” Smith said. “This was a gusty win for the team, and showed why we can be a good hockey team.”

The last time these teams played, the Coyotes won 3-2 in Nashville back on January 6th, 2011 (note that Nashville is 7-8/-1.2 units, when "revenging" a home loss vs. an opponent).

Both teams are jockeying for playoff position. Each is coming off a convincing victory.

In my opinion the difference is the "home ice advantage"; great line value here!

Jimmy Boyd

Wizards/Spurs Under 205½

After giving up 120 points in a home loss to the Clippers last game, expect the Spurs to tighten the screws defensively against a Washington squad that is only averaging 91.7 points away from home. This one should find its way under the number as a result.

San Antonio's defensive performance against the Clippers was somewhat of an aberration when you considering it is only allowed 91.8 points at home this season. The Spurs consistently good defensive play at home has led to 10 unders in their last 13 home games.

The Wizards and Spurs have played to the under in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Also, the under is 8-3 in the Wizards' last 11 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. We'll take the under.

Dave Cokin

New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls

The Knicks have been fading since Carmelo Anthony returned to the lineup. Whether or not that's his fault is anyone's guess, but there's no debating the results. When the Bulls are ready to play, they're real good and with this being the marquee game on tonight's slate, I like them to roll. Chicago minus the points.

Jim Feist

Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs
Pick: San Antonio Spurs

Usually don't like laying this many points, but this year more so than recent seasons there is a big discrepancy between the upper elite of the NBA and the really bad teams. The Spurs can be counted as one of the elite this year while the Wizards, for the most part, are in the really bad section. Washington had their big win a few nights ago with a stunner over the Lakers, 106-101. But those covers are few and far between. Washington has covered just five of its last 17 games. No doubt who the better team is here today, just have to determine if the Spurs will find enough motivation to cover this big number. The Spurs are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 against the Wizards, though this is the first meeting between them this season. With a day off tomorrow, I'm looking for the Spurs to cover here tonight.

JEFF BENTON

Your Monday freebie is the Washington Wizards and all of those points against the San Antonio Spurs.

One thing we have seen this compacted season is Greg Popovich giving his aging team rests in spots he feels are "safe" to do so. Tonight against the lowly Wizards will be one of those spots where the Spurs do not expend as much energy as they might if the Orlando Magic were coming to town. Oh wait, the Magic are scheduled for a Wednesday nighter in Alamo Town, so look for San Antonio to do just enough to win tonight's game, but look for the Spurs to leave the back-door ajar for a Washington cover.

The Wizards have covered three of their last four in the underdog role, while the Spurs have managed no better than a .500 mark of late when installed as the favorite, going 4-4-1 against the spread their past nine in that roll.

San Antonio has dominated the series, that is true, but with a Wednesday night showdown with the Orlando Magic up next, I don't see a blowout on the horizon tonight for the Spurs.

Take the Wizards plus the generous points.

2♦ WASHINGTON

MATT RIVERS

Monday night's free play is the Phoenix Suns at home over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Just when the T-Wolves looked like they had turned the corner, Minnesota loses star guard Ricky Rubio for the season to a knee injury. Don't expect things to run as smoothly as they had when the Spanish guard was in there, that is for sure.

The Wolves will take their lumps, and tonight is one of those times.

Phoenix has been quietly stringing together the "W's", as the Suns come into this home game with wins in their last pair of games, five of six, and seven of nine overall both straight up and against the spread.

The Suns did win and cover the first meeting against the Timberwolves, 104-95 at home on March 1st to make it nine straight series wins over Minnesota. With Rubio now out, cannot expect Minny to hang in their for the full four quarters and end that nine game slide.

Phoenix is also working on a five game home win and cover streak. Look for that mark to make it to six in a row both straight up and against the spread as the Suns handle their business versus Minnesota for the tenth straight time.

4♦ PHOENIX

Bryan Power

Charlotte @ New Orleans
PICK: Charlotte +6.5

If one were forced to jot down all the embarrassing accomplishments for the Charlotte Bobcats this season, you'd quite frankly be likely to run out of paper. On the hierarchy of "dubiousness," the opening line for this Monday matchup w/ the New Orleans Hornets has to rank quite high. What a slap in the face to open in this price range against what is certainly the worst team in the "other" conference. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend a play on the Bobcats tonight. New Orleans has been favored five times this season and failed to cover every time. In fact, they've lost outright every time! This is the most points they will have laid in any game all year and considering they are off a SU dog win over injury-riddled Minnesota Saturday night, it's also a letdown spot. Charlotte is off a humiliating loss to Oklahoma City the other night and should be ready to play for what is a steep drop in class.