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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 1,2010

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SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(11) Georgetown (19-8, 12-11 ATS) at (8) West Virginia (22-6, 11-16 ATS)

The struggling Hoyas make the trek to WVU Coliseum in Morgantown, W.Va. for a Big East showdown with West Virginia.

Georgetown has dropped three of its last four (SU and ATS), including Saturday’s 78-64 home loss to Notre Dame as a 10½-point chalk. The Hoyas allowed the Irish to shoot 57.1 percent from the floor and got outrebounded 26-15. Georgetown’s lone win in the last two weeks was a 70-60 victory at Louisville, cashing as a four-point pup.

The Mountaineers have won three of four overall (2-2 ATS) and are coming off Saturday’s hard-fought 74-68 home win over Cincinnati, falling well short as a 13-point favorite. West Virginia lost a week ago tonight at UConn, 73-62 as a 2½-point road chalk, and it has struggled to stop teams lately, allowing 75.2 points per game over the last five.

The Mountaineers halted a three-game SU and ATS losing skid to the Hoyas last season, winning 75-58 and cashing as five-point road ‘dogs to end a 3-0 ATS run by Georgetown in this series. Prior to that, West Virginia had gotten the cash in five of the previous six clashes.

Georgetown has struggled to cash in Big East play, currently 10-24 ATS in its last 34 conference games and 2-6 ATS in its last eight Monday contests, however the Hoyas are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover. The Mountaineers are on ATS slides of 1-4 on Monday and 0-4 at home against teams with winning road records.

For the Hoyas, the under is on several surges, including 4-0 on the road, 7-1 on Monday, 4-1 in Big East action and 35-17 on the road against teams with winning home records. West Virginia has topped the total in five of seven overall and five of six after a non-cover, but it is on “under” runs of 5-2 on Monday and 5-2 at home against teams with winning road records.

In this series, the under has been the play in three of the last four meetings in Morgantown.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Oklahoma (13-15, 9-16 ATS) at (21) Texas (22-7, 10-15 ATS)

Oklahoma will try to end its freefall when it visits the Erwin Center in Austin, Texas for a Big 12 game against the rival Longhorns.

The Sooners have dropped six straight (1-5 ATS) since a Feb. 6 victory over Texas in Norman, Okla. On Saturday, Oklahoma fell 70-63 to Baylor, coming up short as a 4½-point home pup. The Sooners have struggled offensively of late, scoring just 68.4 ppg and shooting just 40.9 percent from the floor over the last five contests while allowing 81.6 ppg and 52.1 percent shooting.

Texas had its brief two-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) halted on Saturday when Texas A&M delivered a 74-58 drubbing to the Longhorns as a one-point home favorite. In its most recent home game Wednesday, Texas prevailed 69-59 over Oklahoma State, cashing as a nine-point favorite. The ‘Horns are much more comfortable at home, where they’re 14-2 SU, averaging 84.6 ppg and limiting the opposition to 63.1 points and 36 percent shooting. Despite those strong numbers, though, Rick Barnes’ squad is just 4-9 ATS in lined games at the Erwin Center.

Oklahoma upset the Longhorns back on Feb. 6, winning 80-71 at home as a 6½-point underdog. The host has won each of the last four regular-season clashes, but Texas has gotten the cash in six of the last eight. The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in the last five series clashes in Austin and the favorite has covered in four of the last five overall.

It’s been all bad news for the Sooners at the betting window, as they’re on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 16-36-3 on the road, 4-10 after a non-cover and 24-51-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Texas has cashed in 27 of 38 Monday games, but is currently on ATS skids of 3-13 overall, 6-21-1 in Big 12 action, 2-5 at home and 3-9 coming off a non-cover.

Oklahoma has topped the total in five of six Monday contests but stayed under the posted number in 19 of 29 roadies against teams with winning home marks. The Longhorns have stayed below the number in 18 of 26 on Monday and four of five after a non-cover. Finally, the under has been the play in five of the last six series meetings between these rivals in the Lone Star State.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER

NBA

Atlanta (37-21, 34-24 ATS) at Chicago (31-28, 30-27-2 ATS)

The Hawks, who have taken six of seven from the Bulls, looking to continue their dominance of Chicago when they visit the United Center.

Atlanta needed overtime to beat the Bucks at home on Sunday, winning 106-102 but failing to cover as an 8½-point favorite. Josh Smith led the charge with 22 points, 15 rebounds and six assists. The Hawks are just 14-14 on the road this season, but have cashed in 16 of those 28 contests.

Chicago comes in off Saturday’s 100-90 road loss at Indiana, failing as a three-point pup. The Bulls had won two in a row (SU and ATS) and six of seven (SU and ATS) before the loss to the Pacers. Derrick Rose had 27 points on Saturday and Luol Deng had 13 points and 18 rebounds but Chicago turned the ball over 21 times and gave up 30 points and eight boards to the Pacers’ Danny Granger.

The Hawks are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS – including 2-1 SU and ATS this year – against Chicago dating back to 2008. However, the last time these two met in Chicago on Dec. 19, the Bulls scored a 101-98 win as a four-point ‘dog. Back on Feb. 5, the Hawks got a 91-81 home win as eight-point favorites. In this rivalry, the chalk has cashed in 17 of 25 overall and the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in the Windy City.

Atlanta is on ATS slides of 1-5 overall and 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 17-9-1 against Central Division teams, 7-2-2 on Mondays and 5-3 against Eastern Conference squads. Chicago is riding ATS runs of 4-0 at home, 6-2 overall, 7-2 after a day off and 13-6 against Eastern Conference teams.

The Hawks have stayed below the total in 10 of 14 Monday games while the Bulls are on “under” streaks of 4-1 on Monday and 4-0 against Southeast Division teams. Chicago has topped the total in four straight at home and five of six against winning teams. In this series, the over has been the play in six of the last seven meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA

Denver (39-20, 27-28-4 ATS) at Phoenix (37-24, 35-26 ATS)

Two teams coming off Sunday road losses look to get back in the win column when the Nuggets visit US Airways Center for a showdown with the Suns.

Denver was outscored 52-37 in the second half in Los Angeles yesterday and fell to the Lakers 95-89, pushing as a six-point pup. The Nuggets, who shot just 36 percent in defeat, held Kobe Bryant to just 14 points, but Lamar Odom came off the bench to score 20 points and grab 10 rebounds for the Lakers. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) for the Nuggets, who are now 14-15 (12-14-3 ATS) on the highway.

Phoenix had its five-game winning streak halted in San Antonio on Sunday, losing 113-110, but cashing as a four-point underdog. The Suns got a season-high 41 points and 12 rebounds from Amare Stoudemire, but the Spurs had three players score 20 points or more, led by Tim Duncan’s 21 points and 10 rebounds. Phoenix is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five at home, and 17-12 ATS in front of the home fans this season.

The home team has dominated this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and cashing in 10 of the last 13, but it was the Suns who broke the streak back on Feb. 3 when they scored a 109-97 win in Denver, cashing as 5½-point underdogs. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes in the desert, and the favorite has cashed in seven of the last 10.

Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Monday games and 0-3-1 in its last four games on the second night of a back to back, but it is on ATS runs of 4-1-2 on the road and 3-0-2 on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Suns are on ATS streaks of 10-2 against the Western Conference, 6-0 overall and 4-0 at home.

The Nuggets have topped the total in four of six overall and four of six on the road, but they’ve stayed below the total in 24 of 35 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Phoenix is on several “under” runs, including 9-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-3 against Western Conference teams and 4-1 on the second night of a back-to-back.

In this rivalry, the under has been the play in four of the last five clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:02 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

Portland at Memphis
The Grizzlies are coming a 120-109 win at New York and look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU win by 10 or more points. Memphis is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1)

Game 701-702: Dallas at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.892; Charlotte 120.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1); Over

Game 703-704: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 121.332; Philadelphia 122.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Over

Game 705-706: New York at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.488; Cleveland 122.383
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 210
Dunkel Pick: New York (+12); Over

Game 707-708: San Antonio at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 117.568; New Orleans 122.788
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 5; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Atlanta at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.538; Chicago 125.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 711-712: Portland at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 116.079; Memphis 120.969
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 195
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); Under

Game 713-714: Toronto at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.184; Houston 121.000
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 7; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 715-716: Denver at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.556; Phoenix 124.499
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 223 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: Utah at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.206; LA Clippers 115.166
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+6 1/2); Over

NCAAB

Georgetown at West Virginia
The Hoyas look to bounce back from their home loss against Notre Dame and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Georgetown is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Mountaineers favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+6)

Game 719-720: Georgetown at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 70.599; West Virginia 74.312
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+6)

Game 721-722: Oklahoma at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 59.216; Texas 75.111
Dunkel Line: Texas by 16
Vegas Line: Texas by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-13 1/2)

Game 723-724: Fresno State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 56.316; Utah State 70.973
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 15
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+15)

Game 725-726: Georgia Southern at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 47.722; NC Greensboro 49.286
Dunkel Line: NC Greensboro by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Greensboro by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+5 1/2)

Game 727-728: North Carolina A&T at Morgan State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 43.267; Morgan State 54.023
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 729-730: AR-Pine Bluff at Jackson State
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Pine Bluff 41.609; Jackson State 48.484
Dunkel Line: Jackson State by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

Detroit at Colorado
The Avalanche look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-5 in its last 6 road games. Colorado is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125)

Game 51-52: Detroit at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.290; Colorado 12.758
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Over

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:24 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Georgetown at West Virginia

Searching for consistency among these two teams is difficult to come by, however, the one constant seems to be WVU's perfect 6-0 against the spread mark when coming off back to back ATS losses. They beat Georgetown last year by 17 on the road. Also, they are 33-13 ATS at home off a home win (beat Cincinnati on Saturday). The Hoyas are 4-19 ATS coming off a game where they went Under and 1-11 ATS off back to back Unders

Play on: West Virginia

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:37 am
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Marc Lawrence

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavs

When the Knicks battle the Cavs at Quicken Loans Arena Monday night they will do so knowing Cleveland continually plays down to the level of competition this season as evidenced by its 18-7 ATS mark against .534 or greater opponents but just 10-16 ATS against losing foes. With the Knicks playing with same season double revenge and 21-10-4 ATS as dog in this series, look for more of the same here this evening.

Play on: New York

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:37 am
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BIG AL

New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: New York Knicks +12

The Cavs have won both meetings vs. New York this season, but each victory has been rather close. Cleveland beat New York 113-106 on February 6, as a 12-point home favorite, and also defeated the Knicks 100-91 at Madison Square Garden back in November. Overall, the Cavs have won seven straight in this series, but the last four have all been by single-digits. And I expect another close game tonight. Although the Knicks have dropped nine of their last 10 games straight-up, most have been close defeats, with only two of the 10 coming by margins larger than tonight's 12-point spread. And since 2006, New York is a solid 25-5 ATS as an underdog of +10 or more points, if its opponent is off a straight-up win, including a perfect 13-0 ATS if its foe won by 10 points or less in its last game. With Cleveland in off an 8-point overtime win at Toronto, this game falls into our 13-0 tightener. Take New York.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:38 am
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Craig Trapp

Oklahoma vs. Texas
Play: Oklahoma +14

Not sure if anyone can have any faith in Texas as they have put a new definition to struggle. TEX is 3-13 ATS in L16 games including a big upset to this same OKL team less than a month ago. OKL has not had the season they expected but recently they have shown stretches that look much better. Kansas could not beat this same OKL team by this # so can't imagine a struggling TEX team could. Oh don't forget this is a big rivalry game which usually spells closer than expected games. This one is won by TEX but not by double digits.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:38 am
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Sam Martin

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: New York Knicks

The Cavs received some bad news yesterday when they learned Shaquille ONeal will have surgery on his injured finger and could be out for the next four-to-six weeks. And after trading Big Z to acquire Antawn Jamison, the Cavs are left with Varejao as the only center on the roster (although he is really a power forward). That means head coach Mike Brown will have to play around with rotations once again, even though he still hasnt solidified the rotations with Jamison coming over and Leon Powe returning from injury. New York stayed within a similar number here in Cleveland a month ago, and that was when Cleveland was clicking on all cylinders. Too much going on for the Cavs to cover this big number well take the points and hold on! 5* Play on New York.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:39 am
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JIM FEIST

UTAH JAZZ / LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
TAKE OVER

This is the third meeting this season between the Utah Jazz and LA Clippers. The Jazz are nipping at the heals of Northwest division leader Denver. The Jazz have won seven of their last 10 games and and 15 of their last 18. Utah has also seen its last four games go OVER the total including their 133 point outburst at home over Houston on Saturday. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers are in third place in the Pacific division. That sounds pretty good, unless you consider that they are only ahead of the more inept Kings and Warriors. The Clips trail for the final 8th spot in the playoffs by nearly 10 games behind Portland. What I am looking at here on Monday is the OVER. These teams have played twice and both times the total was right at 202. Yet both games went OVER with the total points scored being 208 in LA and 209 in Utah. I am a bit surprised we didn't see a little more adjustment by the oddsmaker here by upping this total to 204 or 205. What we get is a 203 and that really isn't much of a adjustment. Utah is 6th in the league in points scored with a 102.39 average. And, if you look at the Jazz, they haven't scored under 100 points but four times in their last 20 games. I fully expect this contest to hold form of the previous games from this season and come in right around that 207-210 range. Take the over here on Monday.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:40 am
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EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Jazz are one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, but they are barely a .500 team on the road this season and it took a five game road winning streak to get them to that mark. In their last road game they were knocked off by the struggling Sacramento Kings and tonight they face a Clippers team that is a respectable 17-12 on their home court. The Clippers are 11-3-1 against the spread in their last fifteen home games and the home team is 19-7 against the spread in the last twenty six meetings between these two teams. Take the points.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 8:44 am
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INSIDER ANGLES

We are usually not fans of giving this many points inside the Big East, but we actually feel that the Georgetown Hoyas are overrated and the West Virginia Mountaineers are slightly underrated right now, and we are looking for a double-digit Mounties win at home.

West Virginia is 12-2 at home this season, outscoring their Division I home opponents by a nice average of +12.9 points per game. What makes this Mountaineers team stand out from the other West Virginia teams of recent years is that unlike previous versions, this is an excellent rebounding team, with a nice average rebounding margin of +6.6 rebounds per game, compared to +1.8 rebounds per contest for Georgetown.

In fact, West Virginia is the best offensive rebounding team in the country according to Pomeroy, with an offensive rebound percentage of 42.6 percent! Those same Pomeroy Ratings show that the Mountaineers are a very well balanced team, ranking fifth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency at 1.189 points per possession, and ranking 35 in defensive efficiency with a PPP of .910.

It is no small wonder then that West Virginia is ranked ninth in the country by Pomeroy despite their six losses. Comparatively, Georgetown is ranked 20 at 19-8, and they are coming off of a blowout loss at home vs. a Notre Dame team that is not an upper echelon team in the conference this year. In fact, the Hoyas have lost three of their last four games with the lone win coming vs. an equally disappointing Louisville team.

The bottom line here is that West Virginia is the much better team if using Pomeroy as a guide, and we are looking for yet another big home win as they look to improve their seeding in both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.

Pick: West Virginia -6

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 10:40 am
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Rocketman

Utah vs. Los Angeles
Play: Utah -6

Utah is 10-2 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. Utah is 16-5 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more. LA Clippers are 31-55 ATS last 3 years when playing in the 2nd half. LA Clippers are 40-69 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. LA Clippers are 17-33 ATS last 3 years against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more in the 2nd half of the season. LA Clippers are 111-156 ATS since 1996 and 14-38 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Utah is 8-1 SU and ATS overall vs LA Clippers the past 3 years. Utah has owned the LA Clippers since 1996 winning 43 of 55 games straight up. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 10:42 am
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Tom Freese

Fresno State at Utah St.
Prediction: Utah St.

Fresno St is 14-16 overall and 6-8 in League Play. Forward Paul George scores 16.8 points and 7.1 rebounds a game. Forward Sylvester Seay scores 14.8 points a game. Center Greg Smith scores 11.9 points a game. Guard Mychal Ladd scores 10.2 points a game. The Bulldogs score 67 points a game and they shoot just 67% from the foul line. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as road underdogs and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 meetings with the Aggies. Utah St is 23-6 overall and they are 12-2 in Conference Play. Forward Tai Wesley scores 13.1 points a game. Guard Jared Quayle scores 12.6 points a game while shooting 44.5% from behind the arc. Forward Nate Bendall scores 10.6 points a game. Forward Pooh Williams scores 9.1 points a game. The Aggies score 73 points a game and they shoot 77% from the foul line. Utah St is 6-1 ATS their last 7 home games and they are 16-5-1 ATS off an ATS loss. PLAY ON UTAH ST -

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 10:42 am
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Larry Ness

Dallas @ Charlotte Bobcats
PICK: Charlotte Bobcats

Michael Jordan agreed to purchase the Bobcats from Bob Johnson late Friday night and although the deal still needs to be approved by the league's other owners, it seems as if "all systems are go." MJ is hoping the Bobcats can make the postseason for the first time since the team joined the league in the 2004-05 season. The 28-29 Bobcats are currently in the eighth and final playoff spot, two games in the loss column ahead of the 29-31 Heat. The Okafor for Chandler trade in the off-season hasn't worked out but the early season pick-up of Jackson (21.1-4.9-3.9) was HUGE, while getting the 6-10 Tyrus Thomas from the Bulls around the trading deadline (12.8-7.0 in five games), may prove to be a 'steal.' Wallace (18.9-10.7) played in the All Star game this season plus Felton (12.0-5.2 APG) has developed into a solid PG. Diaw (10.9-5.0-3.8) is a truly versatile player while Mohammed (8.2-5.3) has helped fill the void that Chandler's left (6.2-6.6 in just 28 games). Mohammed's suffering from back spasms as of late (he's missed the last three games), which makes the addition of Thomas even more important. The Mavs know a little something about additions as well, as Butler and Haywood from Washington make the Mavs a real threat in the West. The Mavs are starting three forwards in Nowitzki (25.2-7.7), Butler (16.7-6.6) and Marion (11.4-6.5), center Haywood (10.0-10.4) for the injured Dampier and PG Kidd (10.0-5.5-9.2). Terry (16.8) is the first player off the bench while Barea (7.8-3.2 APG) has become a proven backup to Kidd. Dallas has won seven straight games and at 39-21, is just a half-game back of the Nuggets (39-20) for the West's No. 2 seed (Jazz are a half-game behind them). While the Bobcats are struggling to make their first postseason, the Mavs will cruise to their 10th straight postseason. Finally beating Dallas would be a good sign for Charlotte's postseason chances. The Mavericks are the only opponent the Bobcats have never beaten (0-11). They almost pulled it off on Dec 12, losing 98-97 in OT at Dallas. How about the 12th time being the charm? I'm taking a shot. The Bobcats have trouble scoring (rank 28th at 95.1 PPG) but allow the second-fewest points in the league (94.4) and are an impressive 20-7 SU at home. The Bobcats haven't played since Friday, while the Mavs are off a 108-100 home win over the Hornets last night. It's unofficially MJ's first game as the new owner and I'm calling for a win by the home team.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 10:43 am
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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Nuggets/Suns OVER 220.5

After being held to just 89 points Sunday in L.A., the Nuggets will be ready to get out and run against one of the NBA's premier uptempo teams. This solid system gives us a vote of confidence here. Plays Over on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, against an opponent after a loss by 6 points or less, are 52-24 the last 5 seasons. We are seeing teams combine for an average of 225.4 points in these spots. The Over is also a perfect 4-0 for Denver following a loss. We'll take the Over tonight.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 10:43 am
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Terron Chapman

Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Over 221

The Phoenix Suns return home from a disappointing 113-110 loss in San Antonio yesterday, to host the Denver Nuggets at US Airways Center tonight. Yesterday’s loss snapped a five game win streak for the Suns. The Nuggets enter following a 95-89 loss in Los Angeles yesterday to the Lakers.

This will be the third meeting this season between the two. They split two meetings in Denver, with the Suns winning the last meeting back on Feb. 3, 109-97. The Nuggets will be out for revenge, but I like the Suns playing at home where they are 22-7 on the season. However, the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent.

The previous two meetings this season failed to live up to expectations as both games fell UNDER the posted totals. However, this time around, I think we can expect to see more offense from these two high powered offenses. The pereception is since these two played last night, they’ll have tired legs, and therefore their offense will suffer, resulting in a slower paced game. But I expect quite the opposite. The last five times these two have gotten together in the land of the sun, they have combined to avg 235 pts/gm.

Tonight, I don’t think these two will put much emphasis on defending each other, as opposed to outscoring each other. Look for points to be in abundance tonight as these two potent offenses lead the way to a high-scoring affair that sails OVER the posted total. Play on the OVER for 1 unit.

 
Posted : March 1, 2010 11:21 am
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