Frank Jordan
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: San Antonio Spurs -2.5
San Antonio is coming off a big win at home over the Suns despite Amare Stoudemire going for 42 points. New Orleans was getting blown out of the gym last night at Dallas by 25 in the second half but made a run to cut it to four before eventually losing by 8. New Orleans is just trying to tread water before CP3 comes back and they put together a run to try and make the playoffs. San Antonio with this group of players is looking to make one more playoff run at a title and to avenge their horrible showing last year in the playoffs to Dallas. Look for San Antonio to build off yesterdays win and make it two in a row. Play San Antonio
Nelly
Chicago - over Atlanta
Chicago lost in Indiana on Saturday but the Bulls have won six of the last eight games and four consecutive home games. Atlanta has now had to play back-to-back overtime games in the past three days and the Hawks are back on the road after three consecutive home games. The Hawks have lost ATS in five of the last six games and Atlanta is just 3-7 ATS in the last ten meetings in Chicago. The favorite has had overwhelming success in the recent history of this series and the Hawks are just 14-14 S/U in road games this season. Derek Rose and Luol Deng are a banged up a bit but both are expected to play tonight and the depth of the Bulls should prove important in tonight's game. Chicago has been a strong ATS home team and -2 home favorites in the NBA have been exceptionally profitable this season. Look for the Bulls to continue a solid run of recent play as they are in a much better situation tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +4/+1.51 over ORLANDO
Interesting night indeed starting with this one. The Orlando Magic are regarded as one of the elite teams in the NBA. They’re 20-40 and they’re coming off a 16-point win over the Heat, not to mention a very recent nationally televised win over the Cav’s. They’ve now won three of four and they’ll play a team regarded as one of the NBA’s bottom feeders. Furthermore, the 76ers return home tonight after a four-game trip with the latter three games being on the west coast. It’s not easy to make a case for the 76ers here but recognizing a “trap” is one way of doing so and that’s the basis for this choice. The Magic look too easy and you can bet the mortgage that Orlando is going to take a ton of action in this matchup. This line was designed to attract Magic money and that’s precisely what it’s going to do. Being on the same side as the books will usually work out well and with that in mind the right side here is the 76ers. Wait until later in the day to make this wager. This line will only move one way and thus, we’ll update it later in the day to the line we’re playing it at. Play: Philadelphia +4 (Risking 1.06 units to win 1) Play Philadelphia +1.51 (Risking 1 unit).
CHARLOTTE –3 over Dallas
This is the second game tonight that smells like a rat. Here we have the red-hot Mav’s that have won seven in a row and have beaten the likes of Orlando, Atlanta and the Lakers among others. The Mav’s are an upper echelon club from the West and they’ll face an under .500 team from the East. The Cats have dropped three of four and five of its last seven and they also return home from a four-game trip tonight. Since the trades that Dallas made and its subsequent seven game winning streak, its stock has soared through the roof and now they’re a pooch to this under .500 club? Surely, the books could have made this one a pick-em or even made the Mav’s a slight favorite, perhaps a point or two, and not swayed a single wager. You have to be nuts to lay points with the Cats over the Mav’s, no? Again, playing the side that the books need to make money on is seldom a bad idea. Play: Charlotte –3 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
NEW ORLEANS +1.35 over San Antonio
This is a great spot for the Hornets, a team that remains undervalued because of its non-popular status and because of the loss of Chris Paul. However, this team is playing well indeed and has adjusted to life without Paul in a very positive manner. The Hornets have lost three of four but they’ve also split its last six games. The losses came to Cleveland, Dallas and Milwaukee and Milwaukee and Dallas are on fire at the moment while the Cav’s are one of the top three teams in the league. The Hornets also have recent wins over Orlando and Boston and they’re much better than advertised. Meanwhile, the Spurs are considered a top team and that perception makes them overvalued almost daily. They’re not nearly as good as advertised and the facts back that statement up. They have just 10 wins all year against teams over .500 and that includes a narrow home win yesterday over the Suns. The Spurs will now play its third game in four days and more importantly, this aging squad has not played consecutive home games since the end of January. In fact, this will be the 12 th straight game in which they’ve had to board a plane and travel to its next destination and that takes its toll more than playing. After that big win yesterday and travelling yet again today, the Spurs are in a very unfavorable spot here. Play: New Orleans +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +6 /+2.27 over HOUSTON
The Raps will play its third game in four nights and they’re in a bit of a funk with three straight losses but anytime we can get a take-back like this on a quality club against the Rockets it’s worth a close look. Yeah, Bosh is out but the Raps are perhaps the deepest team in the business and they played like garbage last night. You can rest assured that coach Jay Triano went berserk on them after that sup-par effort last night and there’s no way they don’t show up tonight. The Rockets really offer up very little as the chalk, as this teams’ downward spiral is showing no signs of ending soon. Houston has dropped four of five and seven of its last nine. Some of its recent losses include a 33-point loss to the Heat, an 18-point loss to the Grizzlies, a 28-point loss at Milwaukee, an 18-point loss to the Magic, a 10-point home loss to the Pacers and a 23-point loss on Saturday at Utah. The Raptors are the superior team in every way here and they’re in need of a win. The tag here on the Raps is simply insane, as its chances of winning are greater than the Rockets chances. Play: Toronto +2.27 (Risking 1 unit). Play Toronto +6 (Risking 1.03 units to win 1).
TEDDY COVERS
Utah @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Utah
The Jazz continue to be pointspread machines, entering tonight’s game with the NBA’s best ATS record. Utah is not a public team -- they don’t have any superstars and they don’t play on national TV every week. That has allowed them to retain their value for months on end. They’ve won and covered seven of their last eight road games dating back to mid-January, winning six of those contests by seven points or more.
As a road favorite, Utah has consistently and repeatedly taken care of business, 6-1 ATS in their last seven tries in this role. And the Jazz have absolutely owned the Clippers: 8-1 SU and ATS in the last night meetings, including 109-99, 89-73 and 109-93 wins and covers right here at the Staples Center.
The Clippers lost in Sacramento last night, and they’ve been awful on the second night of back-2-backs, losing by 18 at home against Atlanta and by 30 at Golden State in their last two tries. Kim Hughes squad has faced three opponents with a winning record since the All Star break. They’ve lost all three of those games by 13 points or more, simply non-competitive against quality foes. 2* Take Utah.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls -1.5
The Bulls are 19-9 at home this season, winning 4 straight on their home floor, including three by double-digits. Chicago is playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The home team has won 3 straight in this series, and Chicago will certainly be looking for revenge tonight after losing at Atlanta in early February. The Bulls allow just 95.4 points/game at home this season, which is impressive because teams that they have faced are averaging 99.7 points/game for the season.
This play also falls under a system that is 33-10 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 6 points or less. Roll with Chicago at home.
John Ryan
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -2
3* graded play on Phoenix as they take on Denver set to start at 9:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Phoenix will win this game by more than 3 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-11 ATS for 78% winners since 1996. Play against road dogs off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as a dog and in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 75% of their games. Phoenix is a sound scoring team and we see them hitting 48 to 51% of their shots based on the model projections. Note that Denver is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game this season. Phoenix is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game and in the 2nd half of the season this season. Take the Suns.
THE PREZ
The Utah State Aggies have now won 13 consecutive games and they are 15-1 straight up at home, where they are always tough, but those factors are built in to this inflated line when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.
Utah State has quickly become a rather public team lately, and this has been reflected in the fact that they are just 2-3 against the spread in their last five games, as they are being asked to cover bigger spreads. While they do have some big wins this year, the Aggies play at one of the slowest paces in the country, which makes them questionable investments laying this many points.
In fact, Utah States ranks 334 out of 347 Division I schools with only 61.7 possessions per game. To put that in perspective, the national average is 67.5 possessions per contest, and those six fewer possessions than the norm could prove fatal when trying to cover 15 points.
Fresno State is 14-16 overall, but the bottom line is that they are tied with San Jose State for fourth in the WAC with a 6-8 conference mark, meaning that the Bulldogs may actually have more motivation to win this game than Utah State does. Now Fresno is 3-10 SU on the road, but they are a respectable 6-6 ATS in their lined road games, due to the fact that they are generally not getting embarrassed away from home, losing by an average of -5.7 points per game.
While we still think that Utah State wins this game in the end, we feel that the final winning margin will be closer to 10 points than 15.
Pick: Fresno State +15
Bobby Maxwell
Utah (-7) at L.A. CLIPPERS
Sunday's push on the pro hardwood moved my FREE record to 60-27-2 with my last 89 selections as Dallas pushed at home with New Orleans. Tonight I have a comp winner as I lay the points with Utah on the road against the Clippers.
Utah absolutely owns the Clippers, no matter where the game is played. The Jazz have won six straight and eight of nine against Los Angeles and cashed in each of those.
Back on Feb. 9 the Jazz went to Los Angeles and scored a 109-99 victory, cashing as a five-point road favorite. Utah had an amazing show on Saturday when they lit up the Rockets for a 133-110 victory, easily cashing as a 9 ½-point favorite.
The Jazz have cashed in six of their last eight overall and this team is outrebounding everybody right now, getting the job done in the paint. Against Houston on Saturday, PG Deron Williams went off for 35 points, 13 assists and seven boards and every player in the starting five finished with double-digit points.
The Clippers had a nice three-game winning streak last week, but after last night’s loss to the Kings, they have now lost two straight and seven of their last 10. This team just doesn’t score enough to be able to hang with Utah.
In this series, the favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings – and that favorite is almost always Utah. I’m laying the chalk with the Jazz tonight as they will go to Los Angeles and win this one by 15.
5♦ UTAH
Derek Mancini
Utah (-6) at LA CLIPPERS
Had the Jazz not loss at Sacramento Friday, I might've played the Clippers in this spot. But after losing to the pitiful Kings, Utah won't get caugh overlooking their opponent tonight - you can count on that.
Jazz have dominated this series, winning 20 of their L24 meetings (with the favorite going 19-7 ATS), and I see no good reason that should change. Utah is one of the hottest teams in the NBA, (19-4 over their L23 games, scoring 106 ppg) and it's going to take a lot more than the Clippers to cool them down!
The Clippers been better at home, but wins over the Kings, Bobcats, and Pistons aren't exactly inspiring. Take a look at the last time Utah came to town, beating them by 10 (109-99), in a game that was all Jazz... Way would tonight be any different?
Utah beats the Clippers almost every time because they can't match up with Carlos Boozer, who's been en fuego of late. When you consider how well Deron Williams is playing (35 points, 13 assists, 7 rebounds against Houston Saturday), it hard to imagine a scenario where the Clippers keep this close. Lay the points with Utah, as it's deja vu all over again in this contest.
3♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Fresno State at UTAH STATE (-16)
G-Man gave you a Sunday winner on Temple to make it a 7-1 comp play run my last 8 releases.
For Monday night, suggest laying the big number with the surging Aggies of Utah State as they play host to Fresno State.
The Bulldogs are just 3-10 straight up away from home, and now must face a Utah State team that beat them earlier this year by 26 points at Fresno, part of a 13 game winning streak the Aggies are currently enjoying.
During their 13 game win streak, the Aggies have covered 10 times.
Utah State is also 15-1 straight up at home this year, with a 9-4 spread mark in their lined home games.
Series numbers show the Aggies with 6 straight wins, and covers in 5 of those 6.
Have to lay the points here, as Stew Morrill's team notches another convincing win in Logan.
4♦ UTAH STATE
Chris Jordan
Oklahoma at TEXAS (-14)
It's not the Red River Rivalry, per se, but we do have some bad blood here.
And with Texas in off a humiliating defeat, I'm betting it'll be ready to make amends and avenge Saturday's setback by blowing out its rival Sooners.
It's been a mighty fall from the top spot in the polls, not to mention a 17-0 start to the season, and it's time the Longhorns shake free from a funk that has seen the Longhorns lose seven of 12 and plummet to sixth in the Big 12.
Forget about this team losing to Texas A&M, that's nothing new, as the Aggies have won six straight over Texas in Reed Arena.
This is the right spot for Texas, as the Sooners have dropped six straight since an 80-71 victory over then-No. 9 Texas in Norman. Oklahoma has also lost nine of 11 to the bookmakers.
Add revenge to the factor, as the Longhorns will have payback on the brain tonight. Texas has covered six of the last eight meetings and will be ready to get back to the same style of play it needs to with just one week of regular-season play remaining.
2♦ TEXAS
Chuck O'Brien
Oklahoma at TEXAS
Take the Texas-Oklahoma Big 12 battle OVER the posted total on Monday.
The Longhorns were held to a season-low 58 points in Saturday’s ugly 16-point loss at Texas A&M, but prior to that, they had scored at least 68 points in 27 of their first 28 games, topping the 70-point barrier 25 times. For the season, they rank seventh nationally in averaging 81.7 ppg, and at home that number jumps to 84.6 ppg. The problem with Texas lately has been defense. It surrendered 74 points to A&M on Saturday and it gave up 80 point or more six times in an eight-game stretch from Jan. 23-Feb. 17. That includes an 80-71 loss at Oklahoma on Feb. 6 (and that game went over the total).
Speaking of poor defense, the Sooners have yielded 70, 81, 83, 77, 97, 72 and 71 points going back to the win over Texas, and they’re surrendering 77.3 ppg in their last 10 games (all in the Big 12). And in their seven conference road games (all losses), Oklahoma is allowing 78.6 ppg, including 81, 77 and 97 in the last three. On the offensive end, prior to Saturday’s 70-63 home loss to Baylor, the Sooners had been pretty consistent, notching between 67 and 80 points in six straight games. And those six contests had combined point totals of 143, 173, 143, 151 and 149 (the latter being last Monday’s 81-68 loss at Kansas).
Don’t expect much defense in this one, especially from Oklahoma which is allowing its last five opponents to shoot 52.1 percent from the field, including 48.8 percent from three-point range.
3♦ OVER
Stephen Nover
Georgetown (+6) at WEST VIRGINIA
Georgetown was flat and played uninspired in a 14-point home loss to Notre Dame this past Saturday.
But now there's some value to the Hoyas. Their leading scorer, Austin Freeman, played just 23 minutes against the Irish because of stomach flu.
I see the Hoyas bouncing back in this nationally televised matchup. They are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
West Virginia is shooting less than 43 pecent from the floor at home. The Mountaineers rank among the bottom four teams in the Big East in shooting percentage.
The Mountaineers defeated Cincinnati on Saturday. But this quick turnaround is not to their advantage. Georgetown is a hard team to game-plan because it runs a Princeton-style motion offense. West Virginia has only one day to study this.
The Mountaineers are 0-2 the past two times when playing on Monday following a Saturday game, losing to Connecticut by nine last Monday and by seven at home to Villanova two weeks ago following a Saturday game. Going back to their last five Monday games, the Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS.
West Virginia finishes its regular season on Saturday at Villanova. All Big East games are huge for West Virginia, but its last game against Cincinnati was especially big for Bob Huggins, who used to coach at Cincinnati. Certainly the game at Villanova is big, too, with revenge and possibly tournament seeding at stake.
Considering how bad Georgetown has been playing - three losses in its last four games - West Virginia might not take the Hoyas as serious as it should.
The Mountaineers' leading scorer, Da'Sean Butler is in a shooting funk. He's made just 9 of his last 34 shots from the field. He's missed 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc in the last three games.
2♦ GEORGETOWN
Michael Cannon
Georgetown (+6) at WEST VIRGINIA
Take the points with Georgetown on the road over West Virginia.
The Hoyas are a tough team to figure out. They can looked like world beaters when they knocked off the likes of Villanova at home and Louisville on the road, but then they inexplicably lose to vastly inferior teams like Notre Dame at home and Rutgers on the road.
My guess is the Hoyas bounce back tonight on the road against a top level team like the Mountaineers.
West Virginia isn’t a team without its faults.
The Mountaineers struggle from the free-throw line, fall in love with the 3-point shot too often and have been guilty of letting teams off the hook late in games.
Georgetown has the athleticism and talent to bounce back here and I feel like they’ll take this game down to the wire.
The Hoyas have revenge motive for last year’s 17-point home loss to West Virginia. Prior to that, Georgetown had won and covered the previous three meetings.
Take the points with Georgetown as they stay within the number.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Jeff Benton
Got a push with Sunday’s freebie on the Lakers. So I’m now on runs of 29-14-1, 19-8-1, 16-7-1 and 10-4-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Monday, it’s back to the college hardwood, and I’ll lay the points with Utah State at Fresno State.
The Aggies are riding a 13-game winning streak, with 12 victories coming in WAC play. Ten of those 13 victories were double-digit blowouts, and Utah State has won its six conference home games by an average of more than 18 points per game.
Fresno State comes into this one off Saturday’s 72-45 loss at San Jose State – and San Jose State (like Fresno) is just 6-8 in the WAC. That dropped the Bulldogs to 1-6 in WAC road games, and five of those six defeats have been by nine points or more.
When these teams met back on Jan. 11 in Fresno, the Aggies steamrolled to a 69-43 victory as a 2½-point road chalk. It was as thorough a beat-down as the final score indicates, as Utah State made 48 percent of its shots – going 12-for-21 from three-point land – and the Bulldogs made just 14 of 49 field goals (28.6 percent), including 4-for-17 from beyond the arc. Utah State also had a 33-28 rebounding edge.
The Aggies are now 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this rivalry. On top of that, they’re on ATS runs of 6-1 at home, 9-3 as a favorite and 5-0 as a chalk of 13 points or more. And even though Utah State failed to cash on Saturday at Hawaii (11-point win as an 11½-point road favorite), the Aggies haven’t had consecutive non-covers during their entire 13-game run. Lay the points, as Utah State needs this game to maintain a one-game edge over New Mexico State in the WAC standings.
4♦ UTAH STATE