Brett Atkins
I moved my free play record to 10-5 with Sundays' winner on Michigan State as the Spartans went to Purdue and got the upset win and easy cover over the Boilermakers. Tonight I have another college winner for you, grabbing the points with Georgetown as the Hoyas travel to take on West Virginia.
Huge loss for the Boilermakers when forward Robbie Hummel went down on Wednesday. He tore up his knee in the first half of Purdue’s 59-58 road win at Minnesota and that’s a big disappointment for them as now they are without his 16 points and seven rebounds a game.
This is just way too many points to give a Georgetown team that is cutting it kind of close when it comes to being a bubble team. The Hoyas didn’t do themselves any favors by losing to Notre Dame on Saturday at home and they need to step up the intensity.
Losing three of four suddenly has Georgetown needing a few more victories to really feel comfortable about getting in the big dance. Losses to guys like South Florida, Rutgers and Notre Dame definitely don’t help. But the win over Duke and Villanova just show that when these guys focus and don’t turn the ball over, they are dangerous.
Georgetown had a three-game winning streak over the Mountaineers until last year when they lost 75-58 as a five-point home favorite. The last time these two met in Morgantown, W.V., the Hoyas scored a 58-57 upset as a 3 ½-point underdog. So they know how to win in West Virginia.
Tonight we don’t need them to win, just get inside the number. The Hoyas normally respond well to adversity, as they are 5-1 ATS after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS after a straight-up loss. West Virginia is on ATS slides of 0-4 at home against teams with winning road records and 5-16 ATS as a favorite of up to 6 ½-points.
I’ll grab the points and play the Hoyas in this one.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Joel Tyson
Sunday comp play winner on Fairfield.
For Monday, lay the small road wood with San Antonio over New Orleans.
The Spurs are looking to end a 3 game road losing streak, and I like their chances, as San Antonio has won 3 straight, and 4 of the last 5 against New Orleans, while covering in 3 of those 5.
Looks to me like San Antonio has New Orleans' number, so mark me down for a play on the Spurs tonight.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Matt Rivers
Take the Bobcats for the home win and cover over the Mavericks.
Charlotte can be a tough team to play at home. They play good defense and seem to match up well with Dallas.
The Bobcats have won the last three meetings with the Mavs.
Dallas played last night in a nationally televised game, while Charlotte has been off since Friday.
Take the Bobcats as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ CHARLOTTE
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -6
The Jazz are 8-1 SU & ATS versus the Clippers the last 3 seasons and we look for this trend to continues tonight, especially when you consider that plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, are 30-9 ATS since 1996. Take the Jazz.
Black Widow
1* on L.A. Clippers +6.5
We'll back the Clippers as a big home underdog to the Utah Jazz as Monday's free pick. The Jazz are just one game over .500 on the road this season and should not be this heavily favored against a Clippers' team that is actually 17-12 at home this year. L.A. only gives up 96.2 points/game at home against teams who are averaging 100.3 points/game. The Clippers are 3-0 S.U. & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games. Utah is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games overall. Take the Clippers and the points.
Info Plays
3* on Knicks/Cavs OVER 212
Reasons why this game goes OVER:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Over - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CLEVELAND) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This is a 61-22 OVER System hitting 73.5% since 1996.
2.) The Knicks have quit playing defense. New York has allowed 110 or more points in 9 of their last 10 games. We fully expect the Cavs to put up a big number tonight as they are scoring 113 PPG in their last 3 games already. Cleveland also has to shift to a smaller, quicker lineup now that Shaq is out with a thumb injury. This will lead to more points for weeks to come, especially tonight against a soft Knicks' defense. Bet the OVER.