Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 14,2011

Marc Lawrence

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

When the Spurs take on the Heat in Miami this evening San Antonio will take the court knowing they've won and covered each of the last four games in this series. The Spurs are also 7-3 ATS as dogs this season, including 6-1 ATS when the opponent if off a win. With the Heat as not-so-hot 1-6 ATS at home against teams from the Southwest division, look for San Antonio to improve to 7-0 ATS in its last seven Mondays here tonight.

Cajun Sports

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Golden State Warriors +1.5

This will be the third meeting between these two clubs this season with both games needing overtime to decide the victor. In each case, the Warriors were able to assert their will and take both meetings straight up and against the number. Golden State has dominated this series from a spread prospective going 5-1 ATS the last six meetings including five in a row. The Warriors average 100.4 points per game on the highway this season versus teams that allow just 99.4 points per game. Sacramento averages 97.4 points per game at home versus teams that would normally allow teams to score 99.5 points per game. On the defensive end of the floor, the Kings allow 100.8 points per game to teams that should only score 99.9 points per contest. It is difficult to consider the Kings with their star Tyreke Evans sidelined with Plantar Fasciitis and key contributors DeMarcus Cousins leg problems and Beno Udrih suffering from an illness that will possibly keep them sidelined as well. The Kings are 2-12 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game this season. Sacramento qualifies in several league-wide systems that are active for this contest. Play AGAINST NBA teams who went Over in their last game and are now at home in this price range because they are 9-20 ATS their last 29 games. Play AGAINST NBA teams that were underdogs in their last two games and now installed as a division home favorite, these teams are 33-60-1 ATS. Play AGAINST NBA teams that lost on the road as underdogs in their last two games and are now a division home favorite in this price range, these teams are 7-19-1 ATS. Golden State after going Under as a favorite in their last game and are now in this price range are 14-5 ATS their last 19 contests. The Warriors are 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors qualify in a powerful league-wide system that point to an easy victory for them in tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NBA home teams whom average 98 to 102 points per game facing a team that allows 102 or more points per game after two straight games where both squads scored at least one-hundred points. Playing against these home teams has produced a record of 51-19 ATS the last five seasons, 41-15 ATS the last 3 seasons and a blistering 13-3 ATS this season in the last 16 qualifying games. Our TPR Index projects a Warriors win by 4.1 points over the Kings on Monday night. The Math Model also favors the visitor with a positive point differential of 5.72 over the current line of Golden State +1. The basic power play ratings have the wrong team favored as those numbers show Golden State as a 2.0-point favorite over Sacramento. With solid technical, fundamental and power ratings advantages for the visitor we will back the Golden State Warriors here as a 3-Star Selection.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Boston @ New Jersey
PICK: Boston -5

For a number of different reasons I believe the Celtics will rout the Nets on Monday night:

Boston is 30-32-2 ATS this year; yesterday it barely broke a sweat, annihilating the Bucks 87-56 as 8-point favorites; that snapped a two-game losing streak.

On the other side of the court: New Jersey is 31-33 ATS this year; on March 11th it won its fourth straight 102-98 in overtime vs. the Clippers.

Bottom line: Boston set a franchise record for the fewest points allowed in the shot clock era yesterday; in fact it was the lowest score vs. the C's since 1955.

Their incredible defensive effort was highlighted by holding the Bucks to just 38-points through three quarters.

Ray Allen lead the way with 17-points; Nenad Krstic had 11 and 14 boards while Paul Pierce contributed 14.

Important to note that the entire starting lineup sat out the fourth quarter.

I look for Boston to build off that impressive effort and for the Nets to slide back into mediocrity after the uncharacteristic four-game win streak; consider a second look at the BOSTON CELTICS on Monday.

JIM FEIST

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS / SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The Warriors looking to improve on their modest two-game winning streak with another win here tonight as floundering Sacramento. The Warriors likely looking toward next season though they still could get 8th in the west but it's unlikely as they would have to climb over four teams. Though the Warriors play back-to-back spot here on Monday, don't expect them to be very tired as they had little effort in Sunday's easy win over Minnesota, 100-77. As for the Kings, well the shine is off their crown these days. With Tyreke Evans expected to miss three weeks this team will have little in the way to offer for bettors. The Kings are 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games. The Warriors have covered the last five in this series including both games this season. I don't see that changing here on Monday with Evans not in the lineup for the Kings. Too much offense for Golden State here for the Kings to match. Take Golden State on Monday evening.

Tom Freese

LA Clippers at Memphis
Play: Memphis

The Clippers are 26-41 straight up this year. The Clippers are 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 road games. The Clippers are 18-42 ATS their last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Los Angeles is 3-8 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Clippers are 16-34-2 ATS their last 52 Monday games. Memphis is 36-31 straight up this year. The Grizzlies are 17-5 ATS their last 22 games off a straight up loss. Memphis is 12-5 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Grizzlies are 23-6 ATS their last 29 Western Conference games. Memphis is 13-3 ATS their last 16 games off an ATS loss.

EZWINNERS

Phoenix Suns +6.5

I will gladly take the points here with a Phoenix Suns team that has won seven straight meetings against the Houston Rockets. Suns point guard Steve Nash will most likely miss this game, but that will give former Rockets point guard Aaron Brooks a chance to torch his old team. Houston may or may not have forward Luis Scola for this game who is nursing a sore left knee and the Rockets leading scorer guard Kevin Martin is averaging just 13.4 points in his career against Phoenix, his second lowest total against any opponent. The Suns are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record and Phoenix is 15-3 against the spread in the last eighteen meetings between these two teams in Houston. Take the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Sacramento Kings -1

The Kings have lost 6 in a row, but they have played some good teams very tough during this stretch. They played Orlando to a 4-point game at home, and they played San Antonio to a 5-point game on the road. As if 6 straight losses aren't enough motivation, 2 losses to the Warriors this season will add more fuel to the fire. The Kings were competitive in both of those games, especially the OT loss at Golden State in January. The Warriors are just 9-23 on the road and recent losses at Minnesota and New Jersey lead me to believe the Kings will have an excellent shot in this highly motivated spot. Plus, Golden State, which enters off back-to-back covers, is just 3-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. It is losing by an average of 9.8 points in this situation. The Kings have won 20 of their last 28 at home against the Warriors, and I expect them to come out on top again this evening.

DAVID CHAN

Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Minnesota Wild

I bet value where I see it and look for the Wild to upset the Canucks on their home ice this evening.

There are a ton of different factors working in Minnesota's favor here: it catches a Canucks team that is coming off a very satisfying five game road sweep; it plays with "revenge" here after losing 4-1 in front of the home town crowd back on February 15th to Vancouver, and is 20-16 (+9 units) this year when "revenging" a loss vs. an opponent.

And Minnesota will be desperate to return to the winners circle after back to back 4-0 road losses; it still has a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, as it currently sits in 11th spot in the West, just four points out of a post-season berth.

Fantastic line-value; look for the Wild to shock the Canucks tonight!

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay –101 over TORONTO

Leafs were victorious in critical game against Sabres on weekend but they caught Buffalo concluding a grueling seven-game road trip, who were without two of its offensive stars. For a team that hasn’t qualified for the post-season in past seven campaigns, this was the closest thing to a playoff atmosphere in Toronto in years. Now they’ll face a Lightning team that is rock solid and hugely dangerous. The Bolts are in a bit of a funk with just one win in its last seven but it was a difficult set with New Jersey, Boston, Montreal, Washington and Chicago on the docket. Losses to the Panthers and Sens in its last two are a somewhat disconcerting but the Florida game went into OT and the Panthers are playing well. This choice is more about fading the Leafs after their biggest win in some time. Play: Tampa Bay –101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

San Jose +131 over CHICAGO

The Sharkies have one regulation loss over their last 12 games. They’ve won 17 of their last 24 games and three of those other seven games they lost in OT, which means San Jose has picked up points in 20 of its last 24 games. The Sharkies have also played the Blackhawks three times this year and beat them all three times and outscored them 12-6. Now Chicago will return home from a four-game trip that ended yesterday with a 4-3 OT loss in Washington. That game was played at full speed and intensity and there’s also a good chance we’ll see Marty Turco in net. The Sharks are playing too good and they’re too dangerous to ignore in this spot with a tag like this on them. Overlay. Play: San Jose +131 (Risking 2 units).

Stan Lisowski

Golden State

The Warriors have won 4 of the past 5 meetings with the Kings, covering all 5 of those games. Sacramento is 2-8 straight up in their past 10 games overall, while they have a 3-7 spread record as a home favorite this season.

Rocketman Sports

Buffalo vs. Quinnipiac
Play: Buffalo -1

Buffalo is 8-2 ATS this year in non-conference games. Quinnipiac is 1-5 ATS in all ATS games the past 3 years. Quinnipiac is 1-5 ATS last 3 years after a conference game. Quinnipiac is 1-5 ATS in all tournament games past 3 years. Keep in mind, Quinnipiac is not a lined team. Buffalo has played well this year despite their 17-13 overall record. Quinnipiac comes from the Northeast Division. We'll definitely take the team from the tougher conference. We'll recommend a small play on Buffalo tonight! T

Wunderdog

Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets -3

The Hornets have run hot and cold all season. Right now they are hot, winners of four of their last five games. They have handled this Denver team in both meeting this season, picking up 9 and 6-point wins. The Nuggets have played well since the departure of Carmelo Anthony, and have taken eight of their last 10, but none of those wins were vs. the caliber of home team they will face tonight. The Nuggets are just 12-20 on the road this season, and just 5-15-3 ATS in their last 23 on the road vs. a team with a winning percentage of over .600. I’m playing New Orleans.

Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -4.5

This game would have made the late phone cut if not for the team trends of the Spurs. Miami fits a nice system that cashes 74% of the time that plays on home favorites of 9 or less off a win of 28 or more provided they were not a home dog of 8 or more prior to the big win. Miami has not fared well vs the top teams in the NBA This season. However this appears to be a statement game as they were blown to pieces by 30 points no too long ago in San Antonio. Miami is 13-0 this season after allowing 85 or less and 21-5 off a win of 10 or more points. The Spurs are just 3-7 ats in the second half vs winning teams. For the free play take the Miami Heat.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Washington Wizards +8

The Warriors plays the Thunder to a 7-point game on the road earlier this season. They have what it takes to give OKC another game tonight. Having played just 1 game in the last5 days, the Wizards will be very fresh. The Thunder, meanwhile, will be playing their 6th game in 9 days, and I expect them to feel the effects of that here. Laying this many points on the road with OKC has not been a smart move. The Thunder, in fact, are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Washington. Take the points as the much fresher Wizards keep this one closer than the odds makers think.