Rocketman
New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: New Orleans +3
LA Clippers are 94-135 ATS last 3 years in all games. LA Clippers are 33-61 ATS last 3 years in the 2nd half of the season. LA Clippers are 16-34 ATS last 3 years and 2-12 ATS this year against Southwest Division opponents. LA Clippers are 148-207 ATS since 1996, 36-61 ATS last 3 years and 7-17 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. LA Clippers 42-68 ATS last 3 years and 11-25 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. LA Clippers have lost 7 in a row and 9 of their last 10 overall. New Orleans is 10-0 SU and ATS overall vs LA Clippers the past 3 years including 5-0 SU and ATS at LA Clippers last 3 seasons. We'll recommend a small play on New Orleans tonight!
Matt Fargo
Detroit @ Boston
Pick: Detroit +9.5
The Celtics were once again handed a big loss which was their third loss in four games following a four-game winning streak to begin March. Coming off a loss against the Cavaliers, this will be a tough one to get up for and a big number to cover. Boston is just 19-12 at home this season and putting that record into perspective, the Celtics went a combined 70-12 in the two previous seasons at home which shows just how much they are struggling. They are one of only two teams in the entire NBA that has more wins on the road than at home, the other being New Jersey of all teams. Because of the dismal record at home, the Celtics have not been able to cover many games as they are just 8-22-1 ATS at home and as a favorite of five points or more, they are a money-burning 11-29 ATS on the year. The Pistons are no prize on the road at 7-25 but they have done well against the number in a big price range as they are a profitable 8-5 ATS when getting eight or more points. Detroit has been one of a few teams in the league that have played the Celtics tough this season. The Pistons won the first meeting in Detroit and then dropped the second meeting which was at home also by just five points, missing the cover by only a half-point. This is the second of a back-to-back set for the Celtics who are 5-8 ATS this season when playing with no rest and this is also the fifth game in seven nights which can be very tough for a team like Boston that is one of the oldest teams in the NBA. It sets Detroit up a great situation as well. Play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are playing their 5th game in seven days and playing a losing team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1996. Boston has not fared well in the past in this situation either as it is a miserable 5-18 ATS in home games when playing its fifth game in seven days. Detroit has covered six straight games when playing with one day of rest and it will stay within this big number again on Monday. 3* Detroit Pistons
Dave Price
1 Unit on Nuggets/Rockets UNDER 216.5
Here's the key: Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 130-81 since 1996, including 63-32 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 205 total points scored in these spots. Plus, Houston is 16-6 Under versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
New York +1.30 over PHILADELPHIA
The question is which Knicks team are we going to see here. Is it going to be the one that just beat the Hawks and the Mav’s, the latter in Dallas by 32 points or will we see the Knick squad that lost by 20 at home to the Nets, among other sickening losses? One thing for sure is that the Knicks are feeling pretty confident after some excellent performances while the 76ers seem to be playing out the string. Mike D’Antoni expects 100% every game and there’s no denying the fact that the Knicks are on the verge of something good. The 76ers have dropped nine of its last 10 including four straight at home. They actually have more wins on the road this season than they do at home and for a team that has just 23 wins, that’s rather remarkable. They’re not comfortable at home and who can blame them, as the fans in Philly are among the harshest in the world. So, there should be a strong Knick contingent in the house and the Knicks are playing harder and about 10 times better than the host. Play: New York +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
NEW JERSEY -½ +1.07 over Boston
Against Montreal not once but twice, in its two most important games after the break, the Bruins lost them both. They also lost to the Maple Leafs twice after the break and whatever swagger this Bruin team carried with them last season they have lost this one. The B’s will now play its sixth consecutive game on the road and one has to question both their state of mind and their heart. Both are fragile, especially after that loss on Saturday night. At least when they went on that 11 game losing streak they were running into some bad luck, whereas now, inferior talent is simply outplaying them. The Devils have won its last two at home by scores of 6-3 and 3-1. They played the Bruins twice this year and beat them twice by the exact same 2-1 score. However, both those games were way back in October and November and now the Bruins are a lot worse off while the Devils are a lot more offensively loaded. The Bruins are hanging onto that eighth and final playoff spot for dear life ad things surely do not get any easier here. Play: New Jersey -½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Over
Not much defense being played by these teams as the Sixers allow 101 points a game. They shoot 77% from the foul line. Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, and Elton Brand all score double digit points a night. The Sixers score 97.5 points a game. Philadelphia is 5-2 OVER off a straight up loss and they are 8-3-1 OVER on Monday New York scores 101.8 points a game and they allow 104.8 points a game. Al Harrington, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, and Tracy McGrady all score double points. The Knicks are 9-2 OVER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 7-2 OVER their last 9 road game. What we here is two teams just playing out the string and their will be little or no defense played in this game. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pistons/Celtics OVER 195
Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive end. Boston has allowed 103 or more points in its last 3 games and defending will be no easier tonight after playing a tough one in Cleveland Sunday. The Pistons have allowed 107 or more points in 3 of their last 4 and 105 or more points in 5 of their last 7. In recent years, these have been two or the better defensive teams in the NBA, but the fact is that they are aging, making it tough to defend on a nightly basis. In fact, these two teams combined for 205 total points with the line set at just 187 the last time they met. With this number still 10 points under the total score in the last meeting, I think the Over is showing some pretty solid value. In fact, we've seen Boston struggle defensively down the stretch each of the last two seasons as its veterans have worn down. As a result, Boston is 21-8 Over in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing 201.3 points scored in these games on average. It is also worth noting that Boston is 18-7 Over in home games versus poor defensive teams, allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing 202.7 points in these spot on average. We'll bet the Over here tonight.
Larry Ness
HOU +3 vs DEN
The Denver Nuggets have won six straight, including the first three games of their current four-game road swing. Denver is three games behind the Lakers for the West's best record and three games up on the Jazz in the Northwest but just a half-game up on the Mavs for the overall No. 2 seed in the West. The Rockets are 33-31, leaving them in 10th-place in the West, just three games in the loss column behind the Blazers in the West (Portland owns the 8th-seed) but 5 1/2 games behind overall, as the Blazers have played five more games than the Rockets at this point and own 41 wins to Houston's 33. Martin is averaging 22.8 PPG in his 11 games since coming over from the Kings but Houston is just 5-6 in those games. The Rockets have been led all year by the trio of Brooks (19.8-5.2 APG), Scola (15.5-8.9) and Ariza (15.3-5.6-3.7) and have likely been regulated to the role of 'spoiler' the rest of the way. The Nuggets will be short-handed again tonight, a Kenyon Martin (11.8-9.6) is not expected back until mid-April while rookie guard Lawson (9.0-3.3 APG) is not expected back any time soon (so say reports). The team's 'energizer bunny' Andersen (6.3-6.3), is listed as probable but the Nuggets just may be vulnerable on this final game of the trip. The Nuggets last swept a four-game road trip back in April of 2005 and haven't swept a season series with the Rockets since the 1977-78 season. I'm taking the home dog.
Teddy Covers
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia
PICK: New York Knicks +3
Things have fallen apart in Philadelphia since the All Star break – the Sixers are officially in ‘tank’ mode these days. They’ve lost nine of their last ten games. Eight of those losses came by nine points or more, largely non-competitive affairs. Their only win during this span came in a true ‘outlier’ performance at Toronto; a game in which the Sixers shot 55 percent from the floor and 75 percent from three point range.
Speculation is running rampant that first year head coach Eddie Jordan will not be back for a second season at the helm. GM Ed Stefanski – the guy who hired Jordan, overpaid to keep Andre Igoudala from bolting in free agency and signed free agent bust Elton Brand to a huge long term deal – is also widely expected to be fired in the not-too-distant future. Nobody’s job is safe; this roster will be completely re-built between now and the start of next season. That means that the lack of effort and chemistry in Philadelphia is likely to continue over the final month of the season.
The crowd at the Wachovia Center is opening rooting for the Sixers to lose, in order to improve their chances in the draft lottery. And this half-full arena certainly isn’t providing Philly much of an edge, even against lesser foes like the Knicks. The Sixers lost by 27 points in their last try as a home favorite. This team is just 7-14 ATS as chalk this season, and a truly woeful 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games. They lost outright to New York here in Philly the last time these two teams met. Expect a similar result tonight from a team that simply cannot be favored over anyone these days. 2* Take New York.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -2.5
This game will likely be very competitive most of the way, but when it's all said and done, I just don't think the Rockets have enough fire power to keep the Nuggets from covering this small number. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER), an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a blowout win by 15 points or more, are 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, Denver is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams, scoring 99+ points/game, in 2nd half of the season this season. Take the Nuggets.
Info Plays
3* on New Orleans Hornets +2.5
Reasons why the Hornets cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. This is a 49-22 ATS System hitting 69% over the last 5 seasons. The Clippers are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and they should not be favored tonight. The Hornets have much more to play for. Bet New Orleans on the road.
Black Widow
1* on Denver Nuggets -2.5
The Rockets have been brought back down to reality in the second half of the season. Houston has lost 9 of their last 15 games, and their victories came against the Nets, Wizards, T'Wolves, Raptors, Bucks and Spurs. So really they only have 1 impressive victory dating back to early February, and that was a home win over San Antonio. Denver has won 6 straight games, including 3 straight road wins all by 8 points or more. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games this season. Denver is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Denver and lay the points.
Jack Jones
Knicks/76ers OVER 210
New York has picked it up offensively, scoring 120 points/game in their last 2 games, both on the road. But the Knicks remain a terrible defensive team, giving up at least 102 points in 14 of their last 18 games overall. In fact, they have given up 110 or more points in 12 of their last 18 games. Even Philly should be able to get their offense going tonight. But so will New York as the 76ers have allowed 100 or more pionts in 5 straight games, and 100 or more in 10 of their last 12 overall.
This play also falls under a system that is 36-11 (77%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on any team (NEW YORK) - off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Roll with the OVER tonight.
Jimmy Moore
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver -3
Denver is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games and they are over .500 on the road SU this season. Houston's motivation has to be in question since they are far back in the playoff hunt. Lay the short number with the Nuggets to get the win and cover in this one.
O.C. Dooley
Celtics -9
This is a rare case where an NBA team has a shot at revenging a loss on "consecutive" days in front of National-TV cameras. Yesterday Boston failed to cover the spread at Cleveland in an ABC telecast where viewers got to see the Celtics allow the great LeBron James score 24 points in the second half alone. It was last Wednesday in front of their home fans with the Celtics were humiliated 111-91 against an opponent who is currently out of the playoff picture. The national perception of Boston right now is a team that is too old and tiring down the stretch. But the bottom line is that the Celtics who play in front of the ESPN cameras tonight are facing a struggling opponent who does NOT play solid defense. My database research indicates that ever since Doc Rivers has been head coach Boston has successfully covered the spread 56-PERCENT of the time (147-118 ATS) against "poor pressure" defensive opponents who on average force less than 15 turnovers per game. Not only is Detroit coming off a "double digit" road loss on Saturday, they are dealing with INJURIES as well as forward Chris Wilcox (back) has been downgraded to "doubtful" for this evening while veteran center Ben Wallace (knee) is questionable. The Pistons continue to play without guard Rodney Stuckey who collapsed on the bench in a nationally televised game more than one week ago. While Detroit's roster for tonight is depleted, the veteran Celtics are relatively healthy