Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 18

Will Rogers

Carolina vs. NY Rangers
Pick: NY Rangers

The New York Rangers were one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup heading into the season. The addition of Rick Nash to a team that was so successful last year, was expected to put the Rangers over the hump.

It hasn't worked that way for New York, and after 27 games played, they sit three points back of eighth place Carolina, out of the playoff picture in the East. They will host the Hurricanes on Monday, and they are in desperate need of a victory.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Situational/Motivational - The Rangers know that a loss in this game would not only see them fail to make up ground on the teams they are chasing in the standings, but also give one of the teams in front them points, making the gap even greater. This game is the definition of a must win, and it has the potential to be the turning point in their season.

2: Recent History - The Rangers have had plenty of success against the Hurricanes recently, winning five straight head to head meetings. While the Rangers have lost three straight on the road, they have won three of their last four on home ice. New York has been solid on home ice all year, with a record of 9-5 at MSG.

3: X-Factor - Henrik Lundqvist hasn't been as dominant this year as he has been in previous seasons, but he's not the one to blame for the Ranger's struggles. Lundqvist is more than capable of shutting the door on the opposition if his teammates play solid defense in front of him, I expect a solid performance from the Rangers veteran netminder in this game.

Bryan Power

Denver vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago

While I have a tremendous amount of respect for the Denver Nuggets, there can be no debating the point that George Karl's team is not the same on the road compared to their incredible play at home. They actually come into Monday with a 15-19 SU away record despite having won 11 in a row overall. Tonight, they host a Bulls team still trying to erase the stench of a bad loss to Sacramento last week.

I like the Bulls, as a home dog, to cover here. Like Denver, they were off this weekend. They probably needed it after a three-game West Coast swing. While things ended very well, with a blowout win over Golden State, they lost to both the Lakers and Kings to start the trip, the latter loss coming in very embarrassing fashion. Additionally, they will be highly motivated to avenge a 32-point loss to the Nuggets, suffered in Denver, back on February 7th.

Denver is 10-1 ATS during its 11-game win streak, but I think they're due to drop one. The only three road games they've played during this stretch came at Portland, Sacramento and Phoenix, three bottom of the barrell teams in the Western Conference. They have dropped four of their last five non-conference road games with the only win coming over Charlotte. In the four losses, they surrendered an average of more than 115 points per game.

Art Aronson

San Jose vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim

These teams have played each other twice this year: San Jose won 3-2 at home on January 29th. Anaheim won 2-1 at home on February 4th. San Jose is 12-9-6 overall, but just 4-8-2 on the road. The Sharks are coming off a listless 5-2 loss at LA on Saturday. San Jose goaltender Antti Niemi was pulled in the second period after allowing 4 goals on 18 shots (Niemi actually allowed a goal on the first shot of the game). Anaheim is 20-3-4 overall, and 11-1-0 at home. The Ducks will be looking to bounce back after a 2-1 overtime loss at St. Louis on Saturday. A bit of an unfortunate setback for surging Anaheim, as it did in fact outshoot the Blues 28-20 in regulation. Goaltender Jonas Hiller had given up just two goals on 65 shots over two games previous to that. Anaheim came into that game having won five straight, outscoring the opposition 14-4 in the process. The Ducks get the nod in net tonight (Niemi is actually just 1-2-1 in his last five starts, posting a sub-par 3.64 GAA), and I definitely feel that the home side is worth the price of admission on Monday night.

Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Colorado
Pick: Chicago

After breaking an NHL record for the longest unbeaten streak in regulation, the Blackhawks lost back to back games to Colorado and Edmonton. Chicago won in a shootout over Columbus on Thursday, and followed that up with an 8-1 blowout win over Dallas on Saturday. Suffice to say, the Blackhawks are right back on track after just a minor blip on the radar.

It was Colorado that ended the Hawks unbeaten run, and Chicago will have an opportunity to get a little payback against the Avs on Monday night. The Avs have lost three straight, and they have allowed 15 goals in those three losses.

Chicago sits 25 points clear of Colorado in the standings, and they have more than twice as many wins. One might think that such a superior team should be a heavy favorite, and I don't see any reason why they are not. The Blackhawks aren't getting a lot of respect, and I will take Chicago as a small favorite on most nights, but especially against a team that sits dead last in the Western Conference, with a starting goalie that has allowed eight goals in his last two starts.

David Chan

Denver vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago

Situational Analysis

Denver is coming off an 87-80 home win over Memphis on Friday. The Nuggets have won 11 straight, but with a tough game tomorrow night in Oklahoma City, I simply can't see how the they won't be caught looking ahead to that one.

Chicago is coming off a momentum building 113-95 win at Golden State on Friday. It snapped a two-game slide.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Denver is 45-22 overall, but just 15-19 SU away from friendly confines.

Note that Chicago is 36-29 SU overall, and 18-14 in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

These teams played on February 7th, and the Nuggets would win 128-96 in Denver, making the "revenge factor" a significant angle tonight. I believe there are overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side to warrant it a second look in this matchup.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Pistons +4.5

You should always play on home underdogs like Detroit when they are playing a double revenge game against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. This system is 64-30 (68.1%) in favor of that home underdog. This trend is particularly important because the Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double digit loss at home.

The Pistons are averaging 96.3 points per game at home while the Nets are scoring a mere 93 points on the road. Brooklyn is not a team that forces a lot of turnovers averaging just 13 per game while committing 14 of their own. The Nets defense has been horrible lately allowing over 51% shooting in their last three games. The Pistons may not have a great overall record, but they are playing on their home court and if the Nets allow over 50% shooting in this game the Pistons will pick up a home win.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats

Yes, I cringed when I typed in Charlotte. However they apply to a solid system that has cashed 11 straight times and plays on rested home dogs of 5 or more that scored 90 or less as a road dog of 5 or more, and are taking on an opponent that was favored in their last game and scored 120 or more with 25 or more assists. The Wizards are 1-3 off 3+ wins. I would have to really reach to find positive angles on he Bobcats, which is why they are not unit rated despite the solid system. However they have won 2 of 3 vs the Wizards this season. So we will back them as the free play here tonight.

Dave Cokin

New York Knicks at Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz

The Knicks are not only losing everything in sight right now, they are also a team that could be fairly accused of simply going through the motions at times. Tonight, they're in a spot that's lousy even for a squad that's clicking on all cylinders. Playing the second of back to back away games in Salt Lake City is no picnic under any circumstances. It gets even worse for a team that just doesn't appear to care a whole lot right now. No number on this contest as I'm writing this, but I'll assume it's in the high single digit range, probably right around -9. It's a setup where the Jazz are going to enjoy all the advantages, and I can easily see this being a wire to wire romp. I'll tab Utah minus the points for the Monday free opinion.

Jim Feist

Portland Trailblazers at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers finished up a modest three game home stand with a 2-1 mark. Now Portland begins a five game road swing with a stop in Philly. The Blazers have been a good bet in recent times, evidenced by their 8-3 spread mark their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Sixers look to build on their last win, a home triumph over the Pacers, 98-91. Wins have been few and far between of late for Philly, going just 3-13 S/U their last 16 games. Philly hasn't done well against the West either, posting just a 6-16 ATS mark the last 22 times they have left their own conference. Blazers hold a modest 3-1-1 ATS mark the last five meetings between these clubs. Portland is the much better team and Philly has struggled to win games. Take the visitor here on Monday.

Bruce Marshall

Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning

We don't mind backing the Lightning, which ended a recent drought at the Tampa Bay Times Fourm in Saturday's 4-1 win over Carolina. Tampa Bay had lost an uncharacteristic five straight at home prior, but got back on track qw Tyler Johnson notched his first NHL goal and had an assist in his second game in the league. Ondrej Palat also recorded his first NHL goal in his seventh career game. But the real attraction here os to go against Philadelphia on the road, where they Flyers are a woeful 4-11-0 this season and have dropped their last three away games by a combined 12-4 score. Ilya Bryzgalov continues to perform erratically in goal, and the Flyers are winless (0-4-1) in their last five at Tampa Bay, including a pair of 5-1 losses in their two most-recent visits. Play Lightning on Money Line

JEFF BENTON

Monday's freebie will be the Indiana Pacers as the road choice over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

What's up with Indy?

The Pacers hit Cleveland with straight up losses in two in a row and four of their last six.

I expect them to shake off their recent "lull" with a big win and cover tonight at Cleveland. The Cavaliers are limping along with just two wins in their last eight games, although they are 4-4 against the spread in that span.

No contest tonight, as Indiana must string together some wins to move up in the East standings. The Pacers have controlled this series with four straight wins (three straight covers) and wins in nine of the last ten series meetings overall.

Have to lay it with slumping Indiana, as they get things moving back in the right direction this Monday night at the Quicken Loans Arena.

4* INDIANA

CRAIG DAVIS

Monday's free play winner is the Atlanta Hawks.

Okay, maybe I'm giving up on the Mavs.

After they've won me and my clients a lot of money, it's time to go against them.

The Atlanta Hawks are easily in the playoffs in the East, but that doesn't mean they are content with their current position. It's possible they could find themselves in a tie for fourth place in the East with a win tonight... and if they win they'll cover the three points.

Atlanta (37-29) is currently sitting in 5th place in the conference, a comfortable 11 1/2 games in front of the 8th place teams (Toronto and Philly) with 16 to go.

With a three-game homestand looming and a much-needed 12-point road win at Brooklyn Sunday (Brooklyn sitting in 4th place right now), the Hawks not only have a chance to tie tonight but actually take sole possession with two wins in a row. Brooklyn opens an eight-game road trip at Detroit tonight.

Atlanta last beat Dallas a month ago, 105-101, when Al Horford had 21 points on 10-of-14 shooting, while adding 10 boards, three steals and two blocks. Josh Smith had 26 points, 13 rebounds and six assists in that meeting.

Dallas's playoff hopes fell hard last night vs. OKC, losing another close game in which they had the lead several times but blew it down the stretch. It's not looking good, as Dallas is 11th in the conference, four games back of the Los Angeles Lakers for the eighth and final position.

Take Atlanta minus the small number to win and cover as your free play of the day.

2* ATLANTA

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +141 over VANCOUVER

Prior to losing at home to Detroit on Saturday night, the Canucks had won two straight games, defeating Columbus (in OT) and then Nashville by a 7-4 count. In the latter game against the Preds, Vancouver was outshot 33-22. Prior to winning that pair, the Canucks had lost four in a row and six of seven. This past Saturday, the Red Wings came in here playing their third game in four days and beat Vancouver 5-2 after defeating them back in Detroit on Feb. 22 by a score of 8-3. Vancouver has plunged to seventh in the West and they’re just four points up from being in 13th place in the West. Vancouver is grossly overpriced here against one of the NHL’s hottest teams.

Minnesota is tied with Vancouver with 32 points but the difference is that the Wild are shooting up the standings while the Canucks are plunging. Minnesota has also won nine of its past 13 games. Three of its four losses during that stretch have occurred against the top two teams in the NHL, Anaheim (twice) and Chicago once. The Wild had the league’s biggest turnover in the off-season and it has taken them a little time to gel. That’s no longer an issue, as the Wild are looking as sharp as anyone right now, they’re scoring goals at a good rate and their ascension up the standings is not an aberration. Playing with much more confidence than the Canucks and taking back a price, the Wild have all the appeal in this one.

Minnesota +141 over VANCOUVER

Prior to losing at home to Detroit on Saturday night, the Canucks had won two straight games, defeating Columbus (in OT) and then Nashville by a 7-4 count. In the latter game against the Preds, Vancouver was outshot 33-22. Prior to winning that pair, the Canucks had lost four in a row and six of seven. This past Saturday, the Red Wings came in here playing their third game in four days and beat Vancouver 5-2 after defeating them back in Detroit on Feb. 22 by a score of 8-3. Vancouver has plunged to seventh in the West and they’re just four points up from being in 13th place in the West. Vancouver is grossly overpriced here against one of the NHL’s hottest teams.

Minnesota is tied with Vancouver with 32 points but the difference is that the Wild are shooting up the standings while the Canucks are plunging. Minnesota has also won nine of its past 13 games. Three of its four losses during that stretch have occurred against the top two teams in the NHL, Anaheim (twice) and Chicago once. The Wild had the league’s biggest turnover in the off-season and it has taken them a little time to gel. That’s no longer an issue, as the Wild are looking as sharp as anyone right now, they’re scoring goals at a good rate and their ascension up the standings is not an aberration. Playing with much more confidence than the Canucks and taking back a price, the Wild have all the appeal in this one.

Wunderdog

New York at Utah
Pick: Utah -10

The Knicks are in trouble as they now have Wallace, Stoudemire, Anthony and Chandler all out. This will be even more challenging as the shortened Knick's rotation has to play in the high altitude at Utah. They will be placying against a Jazz team that is exceedingly tough to beat here to begin with. The Knicks have dropped four straight on this road trip and they have lost them by a combined 80 points or an average of 20 a contest. The Knicks have no offense, no go to guy and the last four show them averaging just 81.8ppg. That simply isn't enough to keep them competitive here vs. a strong home team. Play on Utah.