Dave Price
Philadelphia 76ers -1
I'll fade the Trail Blazers on the road tonight. Portland is just 9-23 this season on the road, including a dismal 2-12 in its last 14. The Blazers check in off back-to-back double-digit wins over New York and Detroit but are on a 10-25 ATS slide in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins and a 2-14 ATS skid in road games after a win by 10 points or more. They are also a soft 14-30 ATS the last 3 seasons as a road underdog of 6 points or less. The 76ers are playing their best basketball in a long time. They are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games with wins over Brooklyn and Indiana during this stretch. The loss came by only 4 points to the Miami Heat - the hottest team in the NBA. Lay the small number.
Sam Martin
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Great matchup for the visiting Nuggets, whose high-octane offense is a bad matchup for these Bulls. Denver crushed Chicago earlier this year in a dominating 128-96 victory, and while the Miami Heat haven't lost forever, the Nuggets have quietly put together an extended 11-game winning streak themselves - cover the spread in each of their last eight games overall. Chicago broke a streak of four straight games shooting under 40% from the floor in their big win in Golden State their last time out - also the first time they scored at least 100 points since February 22nd - a string of nine games in between those two high scoring affairs. Can't rely on Chicago to string back-to-back good offensive nights - even on their home court - and we look for Denver to run right past Chicago in another blowout win!
Steve Janus
Washington Wizards -6.5
This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Wizards on the road, but the Bobcats are one team where you can feel confident going against regardless of where the game is being played. Washington has been playing some of their best basketball of the season here of late and it's been a direct result of John Wall finally playing like his old self. These two teams just played nine days ago and the Wizards won convincingly 104-87 as a 10.5-point home favorite. The Bobcats are 1-13 S.U. and ATS over their last 14 games. That just goes to show you that they aren't any better at home than they are on the road. Each of their last 9 losses have come by double-digits. I'm not going to be betting a ton on this game, but I will fade the Bobcats at less than a 7-point underdog anytime the opportunity presents itself.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls +3.5
The Chicago Bulls should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Denver Nuggets. I'll take advantage and back the Bulls at a great price tonight.
Chicago comes in undervalued due to failing to cover four of its last five games overall. However, it got back on track with a 113-95 road victory at Golden State last time out as a 5-point underdog Friday night.
Denver comes in overvalued due to its 11-game winning streak heading into this contest, of which it has gone 10-1 ATS in the process. Most of those wins came at home with only four coming on the road.
All four of those road victories were against Charlotte, Portland, Sacramento and Phoenix, which are non-playoff contenders. The Nuggets are just 15-19 on the road this season. It's like night and day for this team home and away as they are a much better home squad.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series considering the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2006. The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Chicago wants serious revenge from a 96-128 road loss at Denver in their first meeting this season. Bet the Bulls Monday.
Jeff Alexander
Minnesota Timberwolves +13
Memphis will be looking to bounce back following back-to-back road losses, but it's on a 17-33 ATS slide in home games following 2 or more consecutive road defeats. The Grizzlies are also on a terrible 8-23 ATS slide as a favorite of 10 or more points. The Wolves have quietly been playing better ball at 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 with a win over the Spurs during this stretch. They got Andrei Kirilenko and Nikola Pekovic back yesterday and their presence was felt. These two really up Minnesota's level of talent. Thus, I feel the Wolves are being undervalued here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Dallas/ Atlanta Over 201: Both teams are playing with no rest and we all know that tied legs usually affects the defense more. Dallas struggles on defense anyway on the road, even without tired legs, as they allow 103.4 ppg away from home. Atlanta's offense is not spectacular, but they do average 99.8 ppg at home and have averaged 102.7 ppg in their last 3 games. The Dallas offense has been very good of late as they have averaged 102.5 ppg in their last 8 games, hitting the Century mark in 6 of hose games. Atlanta has played good defense of late, but still at home they allow 97.3 ppg and Dallas did put up 101 points on them in their lone meeting this year. That lone meeting did put up 206 points and this one should hit at least that much.
Utah/ New York Under 190: The Knicks have all sorts of injury problems to key offensive players and it really has hindered their offense of late, as they come in averaging just 81.8 pg in their last 5 games. The last good offensive output the Knicks did have was vs the Jazz, in a game in which they scored 113 points. That should fire this Utah team up to play some good defense in this one. Utah is not a bad defensive team, especially at home where they allow just 94.9 ppg on the year and they should be able to hold the offensively challenged Knicks to under 90 points. Just like the Knicks, the Utah offense also comes in struggling as they have averaged just 90.4 ppg in their last 5 games, and the Knicks held them to 84 points in their earlier meeting. The Knicks are not a great defensive team, but they have allowed just 94.7 in their last 10 games. Both offenses are struggling right now and I don't see this game as a full uptempo game. Really hard to see ether team hitting the 95 point mark.
Lakers/ Phoenix Over 200.5: The last two meetings between these teams put up less than 180 points, yet the OU line is 200.5. Well Id have to say that a big part of it is the fact that the Suns are starting to play defense like the Suns of old, as they have allowed 113.2 ppg in their last 6 games. Granted that 2 of those games were vs Houston and one was vs Denver, but they also allowed 127 points to Washington and 107 to Atlanta, which are both 28th and 17th in the league in scoring. Granted the Lakers will most likely be without Kobe for this one, but the did score 99 on Indiana's tough defense and 113 points vs the Kings in their last 2 games, so they can score points without him, especially vs this bad Phoenix defense. The Suns have struggled some on offense, but that's ok because the Lakers allow 104.2 ppg on the road. I expect the Suns offense to get going in this one. I also like the Lakers as you can see below, so I will call for a 107-99 final in this one.
Andre Gomes
Brooklyn Nets -3.5
Projected Line: Brooklyn by 7 points
Detroit's defense is a complete mess right now, as they have been averaging a defensive rating of 117.5 since the All Star break and 124.7 on their last five games! The Pistons have also (together with Phoenix) the worst 3pts defense in the league since the All Star break with 43% 3pts allowed, something ridiculous for a team that earlier on the season was even #1 in the league in 3pts% allowed at a certain time! Their interior defense isn't looking any better, with Greg Monroe refusing to defend anyone right now. Portland scored 54 points in the paint against them and it's only enough to see DeAndre Jordan's super dunk over Brandon Knight to realize how ridiculous is the defensive positioning of the Pistons's defense nowadays. By the way, Knight is by far their best perimeter defensive player and he is unfortunately out for tonight's game.
On the other side, Brooklyn lost yesterday against Atlanta and this wasn't a surprise for me, as I took the Hawks last night. Even though Brooklyn had a great spot with 3 days off to rest prior to this game, Atlanta's coach used the right starting lineup for this contest with Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague. With this kind of explosiveness, Brooklyn quickly got into deep trouble, as their roster is big and slow to handle Atlanta's quickness. Thanks to that, the Hawks scored 22 fast break points for a huge 11-17 FG in transitions for 1.35 PPP! Besides that, Atlanta's speed was evident also at the rim with 19-27 (71%) FG and this combination of good offensive numbers for Atlanta was simply too much for Brooklyn. The Nets had a huge rebounding edge, they had good post up numbers, but that wasn't enough for them to compensate their defensive inability to stop Atlanta's quick offense.
Tonight Detroit will offer a completely different matchup to Brooklyn. Besides Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum, Detroit is a slow team just like Brooklyn, without any kind of explosiveness. After all, four of their starters are slow footed guys: Jose Calderon, Kyle Singler, Jason Maxiell and Greg Monroe. Detroit's interior defense is non-existent right now, so Brook Lopez will pound the Pistons down low tonight. Detroit's post up defense has been horrible since the All Star break with 0.93 PPP allowed, their defensive rebounding is also in regression since Andre Drummond was injured, so Brooklyn will have another big edge tonight in here. The Nets have been shooting well from the perimeter lately and considering Detroit's horrible 3pts defense, Brooklyn will also have another edge in here.
But the key of this game has to go with the spots of both teams and the matchup between Detroit's offense and Brooklyn's defense. I know the Nets are on a back to back spot tonight, but their spot isn't that bad, as they had 3 days off to rest prior to yesterday's game. Their lack of speed won't get exposed today as Detroit isn't an explosive team, so I believe they will be fine. Regarding Detroit's offense, it's mostly based on pick and rolls from Jose Calderon, Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey, but Brooklyn is #5 on the league on pick and rolls defense with just 0.75 PPP allowed. The first two games of the season between these two teams were close contests, but Detroit's current level is very far from the level that they showed in those two games earlier on the season. Detroit is 0-8 on their last eight games and they are back to their level early on the season when they started their season with eight straight losses. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Nets tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning +106
The Flyers enter this one 13-15-1 on the year, but only 4-11 on the road. They enjoyed the weekend off after a Friday night 2-1 shootout victory, but they had lost 4 of their last 6 games. Tampa Bay is 12-15-1 on the season and 7-7-1 at home. They are coming off a 4-1 win at home on Saturday night, and have won 2 of their last 3 (3-3 in their last 6). These two teams have met twice this season, with Tampa Bay winning 5-1 at home and then losing 2-1 in Philadelphia a week later. Dating back to last season the Flyers are just 4-14 in their last 18 road games. While Tampa Bay has been in a funk lately I think they will have gained some confidence winning two of their last three. The Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 home meetings with Philadelphia and 7 of 10 overall. I will take Tampa Bay as a home underdog against one of the Eastern Conference's worst road teams so far this season.
Anaheim Ducks -133
San Jose is 12-9-6 on the season and just 4-8-2 on the road. Things have not been good for the Sharks lately, as they have dropped 5 of their last 6 games including a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles on Saturday night. The Ducks are 20-3-4 on the season and a stellar 11-1 at home on the year. They are coming off a 2-1 OT loss in St Louis, but had won 5 straight before that loss. The Ducks have allowed 2 or fewer goals against in 6 straight games and will be going with Viktor Fasth tonight in net who has a GAA of just 1.92 to go along with his 10-1-1 record. Dating back to last season the Sharks are just 17-35 in their last 52 road games, while the Ducks are 25-8 in their last 33 home games. They've met twice this season with San Jose needing a shootout to beat Anaheim at home, and then Anaheim winning 2-1 when they hosted the Sharks in early February. The Ducks have won 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Sharks overall, and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Anaheim. I'm going to lay a bit of chalk with one of the NHL's best teams so far playing at home against a team they've had success against.
Harry Bondi
PHILADELPHIA (-1) over Portland
Portland has been solid at home but lousy on the road going 2-12 in their last 14 road games. Sixers have been disappointing this year but have played well on this current home stand that has seen them cover 3 straight and win two out of three with their only loss by 4 to red-hot Miami. Good spot for Philly tonight.
Joe Gavazzi
Denver -4
The Bulls continue their season long struggle with injuries… Hamilton, Hinrich, and Gibson are all again expected to miss, along with Rose. The Bulls enter on a 7-11 SU Slide. Although they are off a road victory Friday night at GSW, Chicago is just 11-24 ATS following a win. That is a number just slightly better than their 9-23 ATS home court record. The Nuggets enter on an 11 game win streak by an average of 12 PPG. Denver now stands 29-15 ATS following a victory. Also, know that greater than .600 teams as fav are 61-27 ATS if they have won 80% or more of their previous 25 games. But before you take off the rubber band, note that none of those 11 wins were on the road vs a winning team. Nonetheless, Denver clearly the percentage side.