Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday March, 19

NCAAB

Middle Tennessee State at Tennessee
The Blue Raiders look to build on their 12-3-1 ATS record in their last 16 non-conference games. Middle Tennessee State is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Volunteers favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+5)

Game 613-614: Middle Tennessee State at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 62.171; Tennessee 65.277
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 131
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+5); Under

Game 615-616: Minnesota at Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 64.209; Miami (FL) 71.304
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 7; 138
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 4 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-4 1/2); Over

Game 617-618: Illinois State at Stanford (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 60.569; Stanford 69.969
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 9 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Stanford by 7 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-7 1/2); Under

Game 621-622: Princeton at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 62.583; Pittsburgh 66.261
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+7 1/2); Under

Game 623-624: Butler at Pennsylvania (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 59.984; Pennsylvania 58.096
Dunkel Line: Butler by 2; 127
Vegas Line: Pick; 123
Dunkel Pick: Butler; Over

Game 625-626: TCU at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 59.294; Oregon State 66.631
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 7 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9 1/2; 161
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+9 1/2); Under

Game 627-628: Wyoming at Washington State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 61.300; Washington State 61.203
Dunkel Line: Even; 121
Vegas Line: Washington State by 3; 126
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+3); Under

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

The Warriors host the Timberwolves in a Western Conference clash Monday night with Golden State looking to get back on the win track following a mini two-game losing skid tonight. The good news for the Warriors is their 10-2 ATS mark this season in games off back-to-back defeats, and its 6-1 SU and ATS recent mark in this series. With Minnesota in off a visit to Sacramento last night, and most likely more concerned with a bigger look ahead to San Antonio up next, we'll stay at home with the Warriors here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks

Have to lay a little bit of juice here, but for good reason as the Sharks host a slumping Anaheim team that has fallen out of playoff contention. Meanwhile, San Jose is just one point out of the playoff picture and off back to back huge home victories over Nashville and Detroit. The Ducks have struggled mightily on the road this year with only 11 victories away from "The Pond." They are just 1-4-1 the last six games overall and we look for the Sharks to get the two points here.

Rob Vinciletti

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets -3.5

We want to play against a Cavaliers team that has lost 15 of the last 16 on the road with no rest. All teams the last 2+ years on the road with no rest that scored 90 or less at home with 3 or more prior days of rest are 1-10 straight up and ats losing by an average 100-90 score. Look for the Nets to bounce back here and get the cash tonight over Cleveland.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Maple Leafs @ Bruins
PICK: Under 5.5

Toronto is 32-32-8 (16-19-2 on the road). Boston is 41-27-3 (21-13-2 at home). The last time these teams played, Boston beat the Leafs 5-4 in Toronto on March 6th, 2012. Note that four of the last five games in this series have gone "over" the posted number.

Toronto won 3-1 in Ottawa on Saturday. Goaltender James Reimer had 29-stops. Phil Kessel had a goal and an assist. Dion Phaneuf and Tim Connolly also tallied markers. It was the Leaf's second straight win.

Boston beat Philadelphia 3-2 in a shootout on Saturday morning. Tyler Seguin scored in regulation, and also in the shootout. Tim Thomas made 27-saves; “Sometimes when you lose in a shootout, you take it personally. But if you win you feel real good,” said Thomas. “That was a hard, 65-minute effort today.”

Toronto was in a free-fall until Reimer suddenly got his game untracked; he's carried shutouts into the last two minutes of his team's last two victories. This team is reenergized, and has a chance to finish its current five game road trip 3-2; win or lose, it's safe to say we can expect a similar three period effort from Toronto that we've seen from it over its last two outings.

It may come as a surprise to learn that the Bruins win on Saturday snapped a four-game losing streak; "We needed that immensely," goalie Tim Thomas said. "We needed to show up and have a good game at home."

"It's important that we bring that kind of effort, that kind of game, night in and night out," said coach Claude Julien, "because first of all we want to be part of the playoff scene, second of all we want to be in the best position possible, and thirdly you want to make sure you're playing your best hockey once the playoffs start. You have to build towards that, and we've got a lot of building to do."

These teams have a knack of putting the biscuit in the basket at a prodigious rate whenever they get together, but with each side desperate to build momentum as they head into the final stretch, I expect a very hard-fought game from the opening face-off until the final horn, and for this total to stay "under" the posted number this time around!

Bryan Power

Washington Capitals @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings return home following an 0-3-1 road trip and are now not only eight points back of league leading St. Louis, but tied w/ Nashville for second place in the division. They are also in danger of not even having home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. As you are probably aware, Detroit has been remarkable at home this season, going 28-4-2 overall including setting the league record for most consecutive home victories at one point. They have dominated Washington here at Joe Louis Arena through the years, taking 10 of 12, and have big time revenge for a 7-1 loss suffered very early in the season in the Nation's Capital. Meanwhile, the next time Washington wins a big game will be the first. The Caps enter off back to back losses as they have a precarious two point lead for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The road record (13-20-3) is poor and I see the visitors coming up small in this big spot.

David Chan

Dallas @ Denver
PICK: Denver -4

I bet value where I see it and am expecting the home side to lay the hammer down on the defending champions.

Dallas is 26-20 and is coming off a 106-99 win over San Antonio on Saturday.

Dirk Nowitzki scored 27-points. It was an emotional win for the defending the champs:

“He probably doesn’t get enough credit for being the competitor that he is, and for being so tough-minded,” remarked Lamar Odom of Nowitzki's performance. “There’s nothing soft about Dirk. He’s tough.”

“It was a playoff battle. Anytime we see the Spurs it’s a fun game, great atmosphere, both teams really trying to get the win. As expected, it was a physical game,” Nowitzki said. “They went small some, tried to mix it up. At the end they were double-teaming some. I thought as a team, we always made the right play, find the open guy. That was definitely big.”

Jason Terry had 17-points and Rodrigue Beaubois chipped in 16.

The Nuggets are coming off a 98-91 win over Boston on Saturday.

Danilo Gallinari scored 20-points; Kenneth Faried chipped in 18-points and 16-boards.

Arron Affalo added 15.

Both teams have tomorrow off, but a quick look at their next three games sees the Mavericks hosting the Lakers on Wednesday, and then a back to back road set at San Antonio for the rematch Friday, and then at Houston the following night.

In the same time span, Denver has just two games; it hosts Detroit on Wednesday, and then is at Utah on Friday.

The "revenge factor" comes into play here, as the Mavs hammered the Nuggets 102-84 in Dallas on February 15th.

After three straight home victories, I look for Dallas to finally suffer a letdown here in its first game back on the road.

There are enough external factors working in favor of Denver tonight to warrant a second look at the home side in this situation!

Jim Feist

Cavaliers vs Nets
Pick: Over

Two teams just looking for a few wins before the end of their respective seasons meet tonight as the Nets host the Cavs. One thing I like about the Cavs is that they can score points. Cleveland has scored over 100 points in four of its last six games. Conversely, the defense is pretty awful, allowing 98.8 ppts (25th in the NBA). Equally inept at defense is the Nets, which allow 98.8 ppg also. Though the Nets don't have as much offense as the Cavs, they have still gone OVER in six of their last 10 games. Two bad teams, two bad defenses, I think it's just best to play this one over and see who comes out on top when the dust clears. I'm taking the OVER here on Monday.

Free CBB Play For 3/19/2012: Princeton +7 over Pittsburgh. We like the Tigers to keep it close, and possibly even advance once again in the College Basketball Invitational tonight. At 18-16 SU and 13-16 ATS, the Panthers should not be so heavily favored in this matchup. Princeton is just not getting any respect from the oddsmakers here, coming from the Ivy League. Still, the Tigers are 9-1 SU in their last ten, and 9-0 ATS in their last nine. They did display an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort in the CBI opening round against Evansville. But including that 86 point allowance, the Tigers have still allowed their opponents to just 40% shooting and 60.6 points/game. We expect them to bounce back with stronger defensive play tonight against the Panthers. Note that Pitt is 4-6 ATS this year against good defensive teams (allowing <64 points/game). In that same five game stretch, Princeton has scored an average of 77.4 points/game, sinking an outstanding 57% of their field goals. Pittsburgh advanced from the first round over Wofford with a quick 16-0 first half run, and a barage of 3-point shooting. We don't expect that to happen again against the Tigers who outscore their opponents by an average of 31.6 to 28.5 on the road this year. Pittsburgh only recorded 1,449 fans for that game, a record-low for the Peterson Events Center. The Panthers are just 5-9 ATS at home this year, and one would have to wonder how much of a home-court advantage they'll have in this matchup. The Tigers check-in at 9-2 ATS as an underdog this year, and a solid 10-2 ATS vs the twelve teams they've faced with winning records. We'll side with Princeton to keep this one within the numbers. *Our free plays are now 183-100-1 all-time. View our entire free play history on facebook.com/I.See.Winners, or sign up on our website to get all of our free picks via email.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +134 over N.Y. RANGERS

Much prefer confident and surging Devils taking back a tag over a laboring Rangers club spotting juice. Rangers have just two wins over their past seven games and both wins, over the Islanders in OT and Carolina, were not overly impressive. Hosting the Avalanche on Saturday night and coming off a statement game against Pittsburgh in which they failed miserably and were outshot 44-14, the Rangers lost again, 3-1. Suddenly, the Rangers arrow is pointing the wrong way as playoffs approach. New Jersey has won six of nine with only losses over that span coming against the Islanders (1-0), Flyers and Penguins. They played the Rangers on March 6 and defeated them, 4-1. Prior to losing 5-2 to Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon, the Devils had allowed one goal or less in six of their past seven games. Juicy offering with the team playing at a much higher level is more than worthy of this endorsement. Play: New Jersey +134 (Risking 2 units).

Buffalo -109 over TAMPA BAY

This one is contingent on Dwayne Roloson starting for the Lightning. He’s the projected starter and as long as he’s in net, the Bolts are a great fade. Roloson is 0-3-0 with a 4.81 GAA over his last four appearances and 0-7-2 with a 4.05 GAA in nine career matchups with Buffalo. To make matters worse for the Lightning, they’ve currently lost four of their past five home games and the offense is struggling. In two games against the Maple Leafs and Blues this past week, Tampa scored with 26 seconds left against Toronto and with four minutes left against the Blues. The lone goal against St. Louis was scored by Brendan Mikkelson, which was his first tally in 116 games. Finally, the Bolts have won all three games against Buffalo this year and they’ve never swept the season series vs the Sabres. With Roloson in net and with a struggling offense, they won’t sweep them this year either. Again, this is only a play if Roloson starts and we’ll update this as soon as the starting goaltender is confirmed. Play: Buffalo -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

Pass NBA/CBB

Jack Jones

Orlando Magic +1

The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog at home to the Chicago Bulls tonight. While they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing to Miami yesterday, the Magic are still in much better shape than Chicago heading into this one.

I could see how this would be the line if MVP Derrick Rose was playing for the Bulls tonight, but he likely won't be. Rose is listed as doubtful with a groin injury. Chicago is also playing without guard Richard Hamilton, so they are short-handed.

The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. The Magic are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog, and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a home dog of 4.5 points or less. Orlando is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central foes. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Magic Monday.

John Ryan

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -9½

5* graded play on the Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the Charlotte Bobcats set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game by 12 or more points. The 76ers still lead the Atlantic division of the Eastern Conference, but Boston is closing in steadily over the last few weeks. Boston is just 1 ½ games behind and the 76ers need to focus their attention completely on winning the games they should win, like this one, for example. Head Coach Doug Collins has kept his team on solid footing despite a rough stretch and I believe that the 76ers are about to begin a strong winning streak. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-27 ATS for 67% winners since 2006. Play against home dogs that are tired teams playing six or more games in 10 days and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their game son the season and is now playing a team with a winning record. Take Phialdelphia.

Jimmy Boyd

Charlotte Bobcats +10

The 76ers will be motivated here following 3 consecutive defeats, but the Bobcats will be equally motivated following losses in the season's first two meetings.

Winning in Charlotte hasn't come easy for the 76ers. They won by 9 points in Charlotte last month but have dropped 10 of their last 12 there.

The 76ers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bobcats, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Charlotte hasn't lost by more than 9 points at home in nearly a month (5 games). Look for the Bobcats to keep this one to single digits as well.

Dave Price

Orlando Magic -2

The Magic will be hungry following last night's loss in Miami and should be able to bounce back strong here against a Chicago squad that is expected to be without Derrick Rose. The Magic defeated the Bulls 99-94 Mar. 8 in Chicago with Rose in the lineup and should be able to handle the Bulls at home without him playing. The Magic are 12-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.