Steve Janus
Pittsburgh -7
The Princeton Tigers head into their game against Pittsburgh having covered nine straight games, as a result the public has jumped all over the Tigers and drove the line from Princeton +8 to +7.
With just seven games on schedule in college tonight, few will overlook this game. The oddsmakers understand that anytime the public sees a team has covered nine straight they will usually jump on looking for the streak to go to 10. However, I believe now is the time to go against the streak and take the Panthers.
It may seem like Pittsburgh is laying too many points, but oddsmakers created this line knowing the public was going to be all over Princeton. If they truly didn't think the Panthers would cover, they would have set this line a lot lower.
Black Widow
Boston Celtics +1.5
The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot right now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They have won two straight games, and they'll have a hard time matching the level of intensity Boston brings to the floor tonight. The Celtics will be looking to bounce back from two straight losses coming in. The Hawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic. Look for the Celtics to bring more intensity and more energy to the court tonight, which should result in a victory. Take Boston and the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh/ Princeton Under 134: Both teams had higher than normal scoring games inn their first round matchups, but I don't expect that here. Pittsburgh looks like a focused team in this tournament and they will get back to playing solid defense, while the Tigers have played great defense all year, allowing just 61.3 ppg overall. Neither team will look to run in this one and that should keep the scoring down as well. This one should finish in the mid 120's.
Stanford -8.5 over Illinois State: The Cardinal are playing at home in this one where they are 15-3 and have outscored their opponents by 11.5 ppg. Illinois State is just 4-9 on the road and they have been really bad on defense away form as they have allowed 74.9 ppg on the road this year. Cardinals should roll.
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington State/ Wyoming Under 125: A couple of other teams that have played higher than normal first round games, but they should go back to the norm here. Washington State has allowed just 61.5 ppg in their last 6 games, while Wyoming has been tough on defense all year, as they have allowed 56.7 ppg overall and 58.7 ppg on the road. The Cougars have had problems scoring of late as they have put up just 59.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Cowboys have averaged just 58.1 ppg on the road. This will be a defensive battle, with no more than 120 points being scored here.
NHL Predictions
Ducks / Sharks Under 5
The Sharks might have finally gotten back on track. San Jose has won two straight and 3 of their last 4 games after losing the previous 5 games and 11 of 13. The Sharks struggles to score are still there though, as they’ve scored just 8 goals in regulation over those past 4 games. The Sharks are averaging just 1.60 goals per game over their last 10 played. Not much is different for the Ducks who find themselves struggling to score again as well. The Ducks have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are averaging just 1.90 goals per game over their last 10. On the season the Ducks are scoring just 2.42 goals per game, and away from home just 1.97 per game. In their recent 5 losses Anaheim has scored just 6 goals all together, for a little better than 1 goal per game average. Sharks Antti Niemi will get the start after winning 3 of his last 4 starts. During those starts Niemi allowed 2, 1, 3, and 2 goals against. Take note that the UNDER is 3-0-2 in the Sharks last 5 games overall, and 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. The UNDER is 22-5-1 in the Ducks last 28 games overall, and 10-1 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 26-8-2 in their last 36 road games. The Ducks are playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and the UNDER is 6-2-1 in their last 9 in that situation. Also note that all 4 of these two teams meetings have fallen UNDER the posted total (although 2 games landed right at tonight’s total of 5). The UNDER is 25-10-5 in their last 40 meetings overall and 11-5-3 in their last 19 meetings in San Jose. With the way these two teams have been struggling offensively I like this game to go UNDER the posted total.
Andrew Lange
Minnesota at Miami-FL
Play: 1st Half Over 63.5
I expect a lot more intensity and effort from Miami after its lethargic performance against Valpo in the first round of the NIT. From watching the game, it was clear both teams had no interest in being there as Miami finally woke up in the second half with 42 points. Minnesota should do a better job at grabbing Miami's attention. The Golden Gophers played very inspired ball in their first round win over La Salle. They came out looking to push the pace, took a first half lead and slowed down the pace in the second half en route to a 70-61 win. With the exception of the win over Valpo, Miami has shown the ability to score and play at a faster pace in Coral Gables. In eight ACC home games, the Hurricanes scored 77, 78, 74, 64, 65, 69, 73 and 76 points. Both squads are solid defensively, but like a lot of these secondary tournaments, the first halves tend to play out loose as they feel one another out. Let's take a shot at playing the first half total OVER.
Atssportsline
Dallas vs. Denver
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a home win over Boston on Saturday, while Dallas has won three straight at home. This one is in Denver as the Nuggets host Dallas on Monday night at 10:35pmET.
ODDS: Oddsmakers have installed the Denver Nuggets as a 4-point favorite over the Dallas Mavericks, while the over/under sits at 202.5 points. Denver enters play with a 25-20 SU overall record and is 14-11 SU at home this year while Dallas is 26-20 SU overall and 8-13 SU on the road.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Nuggets opened as a 4-point favorite over the Mavs and the spread has remained at 4 in most sports books. The total has jumped from 201.5 to 202.5.
ATS NBA FREE PICK: Take the Denver Nuggets. According to the latest NBA trends, Dallas is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Denver is 16-7 ATS L23 in series. Dallas is not very good on the road. Before winning three straight at home, they lost three straight on the road. Denver's F Kenneth Faried is coming off a 18 points, 16 rebound effort against Boston. He gives the Nuggets a lot of energy up front. C Javale McGee arrives from the Wizards in the trade for Nene. He'll probably come off the bench to provide shotblocking for the Nuggets. Denver is never an easy place to play with the high altitude and they now have some momentum with McGee coming in and a healthy Danilo Gallinari.
ATS MONDAY NBA FREE PICK: Denver Nuggets (-4).
Atssportsline
Miami-Fla. vs. Minnesota
Miami-Fla. takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers from Miami in the second round of the NIT Tournament at 9pmET.
ODDS: Oddsmakers have installed Miami-Fla. as a 4.5-point favorite over Minnesota for tonight’s game, while the over/under sits at 132points. The Miami Hurricanes enter play with a 20-12 SU overall record and are 14-3 SU at home this season, while the Minnesota Golden Gophers are 20-14 SU overall and 4-6 SU on the road.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Hurricanes opened as 5-point favorites and the spread moved to 4.5 at most sports books. The total opened at 131 and moved to 132 at most sportsbooks.
ATS FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICK: Take Miami-Fla.. According to the latest college basketball trends, the Golden Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday games and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast. The Canes are Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Miami dominated Valpo in their opening game of the NIT, winning 66-50. Minnesota was a little too big for La Salle in their opening win but Miami can counter their frontcourt with big Reggie Johnson (6-10, 284), who had 11 rebounds against Valparaiso. Minnesota normally struggles on the road. Miami head coach Jim Larranaga will have his team ready for this big game. This is a good Miami team that was a win away from making the NCAA Tournament.
ATS FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICK: Miami-Fla. -4.5
Atssportsline
New Jersey vs. New York Rangers
The New Jersey Devils are looking to bounce back after losing to Pittsburgh 5-2 on Saturday. The Atlantic Division-leading NY Rangers have lost two straight and they host the Devils at 7:35pmET on Monday
ODDS: Oddsmakers have installed the total at 5 goals, while the NY Rangers are a -135 favorite. New Jersey enters play with a 41-26-5 overall and is 21-13-2 on the road. They are also 32-30 OVER this year and 16-15-5 OVER on the road. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 44-20-7 overall and 24-9-2 at home. They are also 27-29 UNDER overall and 17-14-4 OVER at home.
LINE MOVEMENT: The total has remained the same (5 goals), while the NY Rangers opened as –150 money line favorites and the line moved to -135.
ATS NHL FREE PICK: Take the UNDER 5 NY Rangers/NJ Devils. According to latest NHL trends, New Jersey is 2-6-1 Under last 9 vs. Atlantic Division. and 13-32-6 UNDER L51 Monday games. The Rangers are 7-18-2 Under last 27 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game and 15-35-3 UNDER L53 Monday games.When these teams get together, the score is usually low and goal tending tends to be dominant. In New York, in the last seven games, the UNDER has hit 5 times in this series, the OVER once and a push once. In the last two times they met in New York in the last 6 weeks, the Rangers won 2-0 on Feb. 27 and the Devils won 1-0 on Feb. 7. The Rangers are 3rd in the NHL in goals allowed at just 2.2 per game. The Devils are 11th in goals allowed at just 2.6 per game and 2nd in shots allowed at 26.9. This will be a low scoring affair with both defenses playing tough.
MONDAY ATS NHL FREE PICK:UNDER 5 NY Rangers/NJ Devils
Sharky Sports
Miami / Minnesota Over 131
I am putting in a large play on another Miami over, and there are many reasons that I am making this play. Earlier this week I took Miami/Valparaiso over 132 and it flew under only reaching 116. For this reason among others, I think this line is deflated today, however it will be a completely different type of game. Many things went wrong in the Miami/Valpo match-up which caused the game to be slow-paced, methodical, and end up way under. I think the exact opposite will be the case tonight. First off, right before game time, three of Valpo’s prominent players didn’t suit up because they all had the flu. As a result, Valpo is a team that normally plays very uptempo and runs the entire game relying on a deep bench to give their guys rest and constantly move guys in and out, but since they were only 6 deep they were forced to really slow the pace down and play deliberate. In the first half, they did not take one shot above 15 seconds left on the shot clock. Miami did not know how to respond at first to this slow and deliberate style as they never played a team like this in the athletic, run-and-gun ACC schedule, and therefore it took them a half to adjust.
Furthermore, I think Miami came out slow as it was a sort of let-down spot since they were a bubble team to make the tournament and just missed out. However, they fully showed their athleticism and potent scoring ability the second half, as Coach Larranaga adjusted with an all-guard line-up, and really pushed the pace like they are used to at home. In the second half against Valparaiso, Miami finally dictated the pace, and put up a ridiculous 42 points. Once they got into their comfort zone, it was all run and gun from there, as their offense usually involves a rebound, pass up the court, and a quick three or drive early in the shot clock. Miami finally played the style they are accustomed to, and even with a dreadful 47 point first half, this game was only 5 three’s away from going over when it was all said and done (and Valparaiso shot a season worst 5-27 from downtown). Therefore, I think this will be an extremely high-scoring affair tonight, as both Miami and Minnesota are athletic and play only one style: run and gun. This year at home, Miami is averaging an insane 71 ppg’s, and they really seem to thrive and make big shots with their home crowd behind them. Furthermore, in the second round of the NIT and from listening to a bunch of Miami press conferences, Jim Larranaga seems to really have gotten his boys to buy into where they are at in the post-season. Although it is not the NCAA tournament, his boys should be fired up tonight and come out of the gate blazing as opposed to last game where they came out as slow and inefficient as ever. I think the momentum from that explosive second half against Valpo will carry over into the game tonight.
Now let’s focus on Minnesota. Even though they had an inconsistent and disappointing season for a Tubby Smith team, this team can flat out score, and this is a type of uptempo game that they really thrive in. Tubby Smith has proven he can play any style throughout the season, but towards the end of the season he began going with a more guard-oriented offense and really attacking, and that is evident by the fact that in their last 5 games they are averaging 74 ppg’s. This team has a new motto of playing to their speed and athleticism, and they have found success with it going 4-1 over that stretch, so there is no way they’ll revert back to their old ways and slow the pace down tonight. Furthermore, Minnesota is one of those teams who is good at shooting the three, yet equally bad at defending it. For the season, they are shooting 35% from downtown, yet allowing opponents to shoot the exact same 35%, and anyone who has seen Miami play knows that this team is in love with the three. Throughout the entire season, it was either “make or break” from downtown and there is a direct correlation between games they shot well in and won, and games they shot poorly in and lost. Well even if their three is off tonight, the good thing about uptempo games with a lot of three’s is that missed three’s usually result in long rebounds, and long rebounds usually result in fast break opportunities for the opponent. So even if both teams are missing their shots, it should still lead to easy transition buckets. If both teams are hitting, this should fly over. Overall, the pace in this one will be fast, and unless both teams shoot really uncharacteristically poor, I can’t see this one not going over. I capped this as a mid-140 type game, as I think both teams can get to 70+. It should also be a close game, and there is a little added equity in this possibly going to overtime.