Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 21,2011

Marc Lawrence

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

When the Cavaliers host the Magic at the 'Q' in Cleveland this evening Orlando will take the court off a same season revenge win over Milwaukee in its last game while the Cavs enter with same season triple revenge on their minds. With Orlando having cashed in only 13 of its 34 road games this season, look for double-digit NBA home dogs off loss with same season triple revenge-exact to improve to 24-11 ATS here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Rhode Island at UCF

The Knights were huge money burners during the regular season, but that was only in Conference USA. Remember that they were unbeaten at one point, starting 14-0 vs. the non-conference slate and tonight they'll entertain a Rhode Island group that is just 5-12 ATS off a SU win this season and 3-11 ATS off its previous 14 double digit wins. UCF just beat an A-10 team in first round CBI action, beating St. Bonaventure by 15. The Bonnies just beat the Rhodies three weeks ago.

Play on: UCF

David Chan

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

I bet value where I see it and believe we are in fact getting excellent line value here vs. a team that played (and lost) yesterday.

Detroit is expecting to have both Johan Franzen and Pavel Datsyuk back in the lineup tonight.

And that's good news as this is an important game for the home side; with the 3-1 loss to the Predators on Saturday, Detroit's bid for the No. 2 seed is still in flux; it owns a two-point lead over third-place San Jose, but could possibly fall out of first in the division with three crucial games vs. Chicago still remaining.

And with games vs. Vancouver, Toronto and Chicago all upcoming this week, the Wings will be looking to take advantage of this tired and discouraged Penguins team that fell apart in the third period yesterday, allowing four unanswered goals to the Rangers (and note that the Wings are 11-4 [+4.4 units] in non-conference games).

With two of their top offensive players scheduled to return to their line-up, and with two of the Penguins leaders still on the sidelines, consider a second look at the Detroit Red Wings tonight!

BIG AL

Missouri State @ Miami (FL)
PICK: Missouri State -4.5

Missouri State is 18-9 ATS in non-conference games. Additionally, Miami-Fla falls into a negative 20% ATS Tourney system of mine. What we want to do is play against any NIT, Insider or CBI Tourney team in the 2nd round of action if it's off 3+ pointspread wins, and its opponent is not. With Miami-Fla in off covers vs. Florida Atlantic, North Carolina and Virginia, we'll play against the Hurricanes on this Monday night.

Matt Fargo

Utah @ Memphis
PICK: Utah +8

So let's get this straight. The Grizzlies were favored by nine points over Indiana in their last game and now they are favored by eight points against Utah which is six games better than the Pacers and resides in the Western Conference. Memphis is two games ahead of the Jazz for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference so this is a big game for both sides. The Grizzlies need to win to keep hold while Utah needs to gain ground while keeping pace with the cluster of teams trying to get it.

Utah is coming off a two-point loss in Houston last night which was a tough one to take. However, there is no time for a letdown and that dropped the Jazz to just three games under .500 on the road which is actually the sixth best road record in the Western Conference and the 11th best road record in all of the NBA. The recent results have not been nearly as good but Utah is a respectable 5-5 both straight up and against the number in the second of back-to-back games when the second game is on the road.

Memphis has turned into a very tough team to beat at home as it is 24-10 overall. It is also one of the best teams in the NBA against the number but playing the role of a big favorite is something new and on the season, the Grizzlies are just 10-11 ATS as favorites of four or more points. Utah has been a dead even team as an underdog in terms of covering the number and despite the recent setback in the last meeting, the Jazz are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Memphis.

The good news for Utah is that it is healthy for the first time in a while and the return of Paul Millsap last night is big for the stretch run. Last night in addition to picking up his fifth 30-point performance on the season, Millsap had 10 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. Utah is 19-14 following a loss this season and 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Meanwhile the Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit victory. 3* Utah Jazz

Tom Freese

Golden State vs. San Antonio
Play: San Antonio -10½

Golden St is 30-40 straight up this year. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games off a straight up loss. Golden St is 2-8 ATS their last 10 Monday games. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. The Warriors 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as road dogs of 11 or more points. San Antonio is 56-13 straight up this year. The Spurs are 22-10 ATS their last 32 games off a win by more than 10 points. The Spurs are 8-2-1 ATS when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. The Spurs are 20-9-2 ATS their last 31 Monday games and they are 13-3 ATS their last 16 meetings in San Antonio with the Warriors

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI –4½ over Missouri St.

Missouri State was favored to win the Missouri Valley Conference once the conference tournament began but bowed out to the Sycamores right away and had to settle for this instead of an automatic bid to the big stage. That had to be disappointing and with almost a week off for it all to sink in the Bears could be in for a long night here. Missouri State’s best win this season came against, well, nobody. They didn’t beat a single tournament team (other than the Sycamores) and that’s the price you play when you schedule your non-conference games against nothing but cream puffs. The Bears had one of the easiest schedules in the country and now they’re going to Miami to face a Hurricanes team that went 13-4 at home. Miami never really had a chance to make the Big Dance so there is no disappointment of not making it. However, they had a lot of nice wins this season and a whole lot of close losses. Three of the teams that made it to the Sweet Sixteen, North Carolina, Duke and Florida St, the Canes faced twice each. They lost to the Tar Heels by two and three points respectively. Against the best defense in the country, the Seminoles, Miami lost by two points and six points. Against Duke they lost by nine and 10 points. They beat Va Tech, they beat bubble team Boston College twice, they beat Maryland by 14, they beat West Virginia and Akron and in the first round of this event they beat Florida Atlantic by 23. The Bears of Missouri State are likely in for a similar pounding. Play: Miami –4½ (Risking 2 units).

Duquesne +107 over OREGON

The Dukes have been solid on the road all season long with an 8-6 record and are coming off a win in Montana in the opening game of the CBI. This is a pretty decent team that played in the A-10 and that had a 16-5 record at one point. They hit a snag late in the season that ultimately prevented them from going to the Dance but they have a good résumé. Four of Duquesne’s first five losses were to Pittsburgh, Penn State, West Virginia and George Mason, all March Madness qualifiers. They also played other qualifiers, Richmond, Xavier and Temple and didn’t look a bit out of place against any of the aforementioned qualifiers, losing to GMU in double OT, to WVU by three, to Penn State by four and Pitt by 14. The Dukes had four players that scored in double digits in its last game and were first in the country in assists per game. The Ducks went just 12-9 at home. They’re really a very beatable team that ranked 270th in the country with a FG% of just .419 and ranked 380th in the country in rebounding. There’s noting in the Ducks résumé that suggests they can beat the Dukes and if the visitor is ready to play they’re very likely going to beat this host. Play: Duquesne +107 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Alabama Crimson Tide -5

Alabama was one of the teams that had a real argument to make the NCAA tournament but was snubbed by the selection committee. You never know if a team will come to play in the NIT when that happens, but it appears that the Tide are on a mission. New Mexico will step into what has statistically been the toughest place in the nation for opponents to score as Alabama’s home foes have averaged just 51.6 points per game and shoot only 34 percent from the floor in Coleman Coliseum. That defensive home court advantage is a big reason why the Tide is a perfect 17-0 and a win over the Lobos in this game would set the school record for home wins in a season. New Mexico has not been a great road team this season and the Lobos are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Alabama is 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven games as a home favorite. Lay the points.

Rocketman

Golden State @ San Antonio
Play: San Antonio -11

Golden State is only 9-26 SU on the road this year where they are allowing 107.1 points per game. San Antonio is solid at home with a 32-3 SU record this year. San Antonio is 10-0 SU and 8-1 ATS overall vs Golden State the past 3 years. San Antonio has dominated Golden State at home going 25-2 SU since 1996. San Antonio is 22-10 ATS last 32 games after a SU win of more than 10 points. Favorite is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Warriors are 7-18-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Warriors are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. We'll recommend a small play on San Antonio tonight!

JIM FEIST

SACRAMENTO KINGS / CHICAGO BULLS
TAKE: CHICAGO BULLS

The Bulls are fighting for the top spot in the NBA east with the Celtics as both teams are tied at 49-19. The real reason though for beating out the Celtics and Heat for the best record in the East is so that the Bulls will hold home court during the playoffs. That can be big in an eastern conference with the Celtics, Heat and Magic. The Bulls have been hot too, going 15-3 SU their last 18 games. Bettors have made money on this team too, going 10-3 ATS their last 13 games. The Bulls have been golden at home too, going 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 games at the United Center. As for the Sacramento Kings, well, they have only won 33 games less than the Bulls. The Kings will still pull out a win here and there, evidenced by their win last Monday at home over Golden State, 129-119. However, since February 1st the Kings have just four wins. No one is going to be delusional enough to think the Kings win here tonight. But they will be getting a lot of points and that's what we care about. The problem the Kings have tonight will be scoring. They face a Bulls team that is second best in the NBA in points allowed. The Bulls have held four of their last seven opponents to less than 80 points. That's what I expect tonight, a Kings team that will be lucky to hit that 80 mark and therefore the Bulls should have no trouble covering the big line.

Lenny Del Genio

Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been phenomenal against the pointspread since dealing away Carmelo Anthony, covering all but one game, and tonight they face a sorry Raptors team that they have dominated, winning seven straight, including a 123-116 win earlier this season 'North of the Border.' Here, they are catching Toronto off a SU dog win yesterday over Oklahoma City and they are just 4-14 ATS revenging a home loss. Take Denver.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on NY Knicks +2

Boston has dropped 3 of its last 4 on the road, and it will have its work cut out for itself against a Knicks team motivated by back-to-back defeats. With each of the last 3, and 5 of the last 6, meetings being decided by 4 points or less, I won't hesitate to grab the points here. In addition, plays on home teams when the line is +3 to -3 off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 56-26 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 4.1 points. Also, New York has been exceptional in the underdog role. The Knicks are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Since the Knicks just played Sunday, it is also worth noting that they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games when playing without a day of rest. It must also be mentioned that Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a road favorite. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York. Take the Knicks.

Tony George

Davidson vs. Creighton
Play: Davidson +7

Taking the points here as dogs continue to dominate the post season. I like teams who can score points and while the defenses are somewhat even here, Davidson is the team with the high octane offense. Both teams won with ease in Round 1 and I expect this to be down to the wire game and free throws may in fact be a huge deal in this games, as both teams play aggressive defense and Davidson is far better from he charity strip and given 7 points with this 2 pronged scenario, I am taking the visitor to cover the number in a down to the final buzzer type game.

MTi Sports

Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (+9.2 ppg) with rest after a loss in which Derrick Rose took more than 20 shots and 11-0 ATS (+12.1 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-11.4 ppg) as a dog after a road win in which they had at least thirty assists. Consider laying the big number.