Rob Vinciletti
Warriors vs. Spurs
Play: Under 210.5
This game fits a 90% system that dates to 1995 and is illustrated below for your viewing pleasure. What we want to do in this game is play the under for rested home favorites that scored 100 or more in their last game if they were favored by 10 or more points and are now taking on an opponent that scored 80 or less as a road dog of 5 or more in their last game. If the posted total is 190 or higher these games have gone under the total 9 of 10 times with 2 games landing on the number for a push. The Warriors have to take on the Spurs one night after getting pasted by the Dallas Mavericks. We note that the Warriors are have gone under in 10 of 13 games off 3 or more losses, 5 of 7 times as a road dog from +9.5 to +12 and 10 of 14 times in the second of back to back nights. The Spurs have played under in 6 of 7 games this season when the posted total is 210 or higher. Look for this one to play under the total here tonight.
Larry Ness
Duquesne @ Oregon
PICK: Oregon -1
Duquesne's Ron Everhart had some high expectations heading into the 2009-10 season but the Dukes disappointed with a 16-16 mark. Despite returning a veteran team again for 2010-11, Everhart downplayed expectations and the Dukes were the A-10's "story of the year" as of February 1. Duquesne was a modest 7-5 in its pre-conference games but opened A-10 play 8-0 after beating George Washington 84-59 on Feb 2 while also adding a non-conference win over Houston Baptist (team stood at 16-5). The team goes with a seven-man rotation, six of them guards. The 6-5 Clark (16.3) leads the team in scoring and is joined by three other guards in the starting lineup, Monterio (11.7), McConnell (10.7-4.3 APG) and Talley (7.1). Johnson (9.4) and Evans (5.0) are the two other guards with the lone inside player of note being the 6-7 Saunders (12.7-7.9). Maybe the team's lack of balance and any real inside presence caught up to them, as Duquesne fell apart after Feb 2, losing SEVEN of its last nine games, going a woeful 1-8 ATS. This is the Dukes' third straight postseason appearance but each of the last two have ended in first-round exits, last year in the CBI, the previous year in the NIT. This Pittsburgh-area school got to visit beautiful downtown Missoula, Montana last Wednesday where the Grizzlies had gone 13-1 SU this season, entering that game on a 10-game home winning streak in which they had outscored the opposition 72-2-to-56.8 PPG. Go figure. The Dukes won 87-76, the school's first postseason victory since defeating Charlotte in the first round of the 1994 NIT. Five players scored in double digits with the team shooting 54.2% for the game. Can that really happen again? Duquesne is again “out West,” this time in Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks. There have been lots of ‘growing pains’ in Dana Altman’s first season at Oregon with the Ducks finishing the regular season just 14-16. However, the Ducks beat ASU in the Pac 10’s opening round and then ‘spanked’ UCLA 76-59, before losing 69-51 to Washington. Oregon’s 68-59 win at home over Weber St in the first round of the CBI gets them back to .500 on the season (17-17). A pair of 6-6 forwards, Catron (15.2-6.4) and Singler (11.6-5.6) plus the 6-8 Nared (5.2-3.9) give Oregon an advantage up front but Altman’s backcourt will be tested here by Duquesne's deep group. Starters Armstead (8.5) and Sim (7.9) are joined by Strowbridge (9.6) off the bench. The good news for Oregon fans was the team committed just nine turnovers plus made 23-of-26 FTs. Duquesne may be the better team (not by much) but playing again far from home makes this a tough venue. Dana Altman is a quality coach and I give him the edge in this one. The Ducks quack at home.
Steve Janus
1* Miami -4
I am a big fan of taking the home team in the NIT, and I think the Hurricanes are the clear choice in tonight's matchup against Missouri State. Miami may have a worse record, but they are 12-4 on their home floor this season, losing to North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, and Clemson, all teams that made it to the NCAA Tournament, and three that are in the Sweet 16!
When the oddsmakers go against Missouri State they normally lose, as they are 16-30 ATS as an underdog since 1997. Missouri State is also just 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Bet Miami!
Black Widow
1* on Denver Nuggets -12.5
The Denver Nuggets have been the best covering team in the NBA over the last month. It would be foolish not to continue to back them until they prove otherwise. The Nuggets are 10-4 SU & 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Their only losses have come on the road, and even then they've proven they can play with the best. Denver lost by 1 point at Portland, by 3 points at Orlando and by 5 points at Miami. They covered the spread in every one of those contests. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, winning by 13, 14, 10, 40 and 30 points. So as you can see, they have not only won five straight at home, they have embarrassed the competition in the process. The Toronto Raptors are playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th in 6 days. After a shocking win at Oklahoma City last night, the Raptors are in for an emotional letdown. Meanwhile, the Nuggets come in motivated from back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Magic and Heat. The Raptors are 6-27 on the road this season while Denver is 27-7 at home. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* Grizzlies -8
Reasons why Memphis will cover:
1) The Grizzlies have dominated their last two home games against bad teams, beating the Clippers by 23 and the Pacer by 21. The Jazz have looked ugly in a number of road games of late, and we look for them to come out flat against the Grizzles, as they had to play a tough high-scoring game against the Rockets yesterday.
2) Memphis plays like an elite team on their home court. They are 24-10 SU and 21-12 ATS, including a 7-2 run over their last nine games at home as a favorite.
3) Utah is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 203
Plays Under om home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - after going under the numbers by 30 or more total points in their last three games, provided they have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team, 69-29 since 1996. We have only seen a total of 198.8 total points scored on average in this situation. I must also mention that this system is 34-7 the last 3 seasons and 6-1 already this season. Bet the Under.
Ray Monohan
Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings
Play: Calgary Flames
Flames vs. Kings tonight from LA. The playoffs are coming and the NHL is amping up the intensity. The Flames are 3-1-1 in their last five meetings with the Kings and 7-2-1 in the last 10 matchups. Calgary missed an opportunity on Sunday to tie for 8th – instead the team that beat them in OT occupies that spot. Every point is crucial for the Flames – they have played at least 1 more game that all of the teams that they are battling with in the West. LA is certainly one of the bigger NHL Betting underachievers of the season – they are a talent latent squad that has struggled to put it all together. Calgary has been one of the better teams in the NHL since January 1st and I expect them to remain in the hunt right until the bitter end. Trends I like for this one include the Flames are 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Kings are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite, and are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. Flames are 24-9-2 in the last 35 meetings.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -1.5
Tied atop the East with Chicago, Boston knows it can ill-afford to coast down the stretch. The Knicks and Celtics have played some close games in recent years, but Boston has managed to win 6 of the last 7 and 14 of the last 16. Also, plays against home teams (NEW YORK) that havr lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing on back-to-back days, are 163-110 ATS (60%) over the last 5 seasons. Bet Boston.
OC DOOLEY
Missouri State +4.5
If you look at the seeding for this contest (#2 hosting #3) we should have a competitive NIT Tournament tilt even though Miami-Florida won with ease in front of their home fans last week in an opening-round contest. Actually both sides involved in this tilt won with ease in their initial NIT outings last week including Missouri State's 89-76 against the same Murray State squad that one year ago at this time actually pulled off a pair of upsets in the NCAA Tournament. One of the few early round upsets in this year's Big Dance saw Morehead State eliminating Louisville and the Eagles just happen to be from the same conference (Ohio Valley) as the Murray State squad that last week was dominated by tonight's road underdog. Missouri State not only won the regular-season title from the Missouri Valley Conference, they made it all the way to postseason league championship game before ending up missing the Big Dance card. The leading scorer for Missouri State is forward Kyle Weems whose per game averages (16 points, 7 rebounds) make him a dangerous presence in the paint. But the big news is that Missouri State's next 4 lead scorers after Weems all just happen to be SENIORS who desperately want to extend their collegiate careers for at least one more game. As mentioned earlier Miami-Florida won with ease in the NIT opening round recording "double digit" home victory #8 on the campaign and they have a dynamic backcourt of guards (Malcom Grant, Durand Scott) who have made a combined 273 trey's from behind the arc which is a school record. Miami also has am impact player at the center position (6'10" and 303 poiunds) who can wreak havoc down low in the paint, so it comes as no shock that they have been cast as a prohibitive favorite. But the fact of the matter is that the "hot head coach" in this tilt is Missouri State's Cuonzo Martin who is one of the lead candidates for the currently vacant Georgia Tech job, so this ESPN national appearance is important. My research indicates that Miami-Florida has traditionally had problems handling prosperity going a dreadful 1-9 ATS long term after successfully covering the spread 4 times in a five-game span