EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors +4.5
The injury plagued Warriors are back in their most profitable home underdog role for this game against the Suns. As short handed as the Warriors are, Golden State is 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games that include wins against Toronto and New Orleans and close losses to the Portland and the LA Lakers. Overall the Warriors are 46-18-2 against the spread in their last sixty six games as a home underdog and Phoenix has struggled in their visits to Oakland. Phoenix is only 4-12 against the spread in the last sixteen games played at Golden State and the Suns are only 4-9-1 against the spread in their last fourteen road games against a team with a losing home record. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry should do enough damage to keep this one close all the way. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Wisconsin Green Bay vs. St. Louis
Eights and Threes are wild here as UWGB is Under the Total (8-3) ATS on the road, in Monday action and the past (11) as an underdog. Big Game James Patrick's Monday selection in College Basketball is Wisconsin Green Bay - St. Louis Under the Total in CBI Tournament action.
Tom Freese
Princeton at IUPUI
Play: Princeton
Iupui is 25-10 this year. Forward Robert Glenn scores 19.9 points and 6.4 rebounds a game. Forward Alex Young scores 18.4 points a game while shooting 39% from behind the arc. Guard Leroy Nobles scores 13.2 points a game while shooting 42% from behind the line the Jaguars score 74.7 points a game. Iupui 2-6 ATS off an ATS win. Princeton is 21-8 this year. Guard Douglas Davis scores 12.9 points a game while shooting 43% from behind the arc. Guard Dan Mavraides scores 11.4 points a game while shooting 36% from behind the arc. Forward Ian Hummer scores 6.6 points a game. The Tigers score 60 points a game. Princeton is 21-7 ATS their last 28 games overall and they are 20-6 ATS their last road games. PLAY ON PRINCETON +
Dunkel Index
Atlanta at Milwaukee
The Bucks look to build on their 6-0-1 ATS record in their last 7 games versus teams with a winning SU record. Milwaukee is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4 1/2)
Game 601-602: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 127.396; Philadelphia 113.630
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 14; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Miami at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 119.407; New Jersey 112.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 187
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Under
Game 605-606: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.516; Minnesota 109.840
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 5; 218 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5); Over
Game 607-608: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.650; Milwaukee 129.562
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 10; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4 1/2); Under
Game 609-610: San Antonio at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.380; Oklahoma City 124.456
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4 1/2); Under
Game 611-612: Houston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.811; Chicago 117.764
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over
Game 613-614: Dallas at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.564; New Orleans 115.058
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4 1/2); Under
Game 615-616: Boston at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.499; Utah 125.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 5; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+5); Under
Game 617-618: Memphis at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.156; Sacramento 117.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 2 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 208
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); N/A
Game 619-620: Phoenix at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 125.095; Golden State 115.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 239
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 244
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Morehead State at Boston U
The Eagles look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as an underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Morehead State is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+2)
Game 621-622: Nevada at Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 60.685; Rhode Island 63.656
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 3
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 8
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+8)
Game 623-624: Connecticut at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 68.535; Virginia Tech 71.759
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 3
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2)
Game 625-626: Kent State at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 60.630; Illinois 66.063
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+8 1/2)
Game 627-628: Dayton at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.803; Cincinnati 68.088
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3)
Game 631-632: College of Charleston at VCU
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 56.284; VCU 67.402
Dunkel Line: VCU by 11
Vegas Line: VCU by 13
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+13)
Game 633-634: Princeton at IUPUI
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.630; IUPUI 61.351
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: IUPUI by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+6 1/2)
Game 635-636: Morehead State at Boston U
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 60.962; Boston U 60.708
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Boston U by 2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+2)
Game 637-638: WI-Green Bay at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 57.518; St. Louis 64.615
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-6 1/2)
Game 639-640: Appalachian State at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 56.193; Marshall 68.426
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 12
Vegas Line: Marshall by 9
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-9)
Game 641-642: Fairfield at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 58.891; Creighton 61.816
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 3
Vegas Line: Creighton by 5
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+5)
Game 643-644: LouiSIAna Tech at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: LouiSIAna Tech 55.194; Missouri State 63.058
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 8
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LouiSIAna Tech (+8 1/2)
Game 645-646: Pacific at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 57.589; Northern Colorado 57.639
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 1
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+1)
NHL
Pittsburgh at Detroit
The Red Wings look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. Detroit is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140)
Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.580; Detroit 12.940
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 9.820; Montreal 13.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 3; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-140); Under
Game 5-6: Colorado at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.471; Los Angeles 10.839
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over
Matt Fargo
Coll Charleston vs. Va Commonwealth
Play: Coll Charleston +12.5
This line is extremely high for two teams that are not that far off from each other. Both College of Charleston and VCU won their first round games on the road and it is the Rams that get to host another game. Even though VCU won the first game in this CBI tournament, it is not especially happy about being here. It was far from a solid effort against George Washington as that game resembled one with two teams weren’t thrilled with looking for the win and it came down to who didn’t want to lose more. While winning that first game usually helps the motivating factor going forward, I’m not sure how much it will help here. The Rams were disappointed at being snubbed by the NIT and they were not shy about letting people know. The Rams tied for fifth in the CAA regular season and knew they had to win the tournament to make the NCAA field. After losing to Old Dominion in overtime in the CAA semifinals, finishing with an RPI of 66 and a strength of schedule of 142, the 32-team NIT seemed a certain fallback. Eleven at-large teams with RPI’s not as good as VCU’s were selected ahead of the Rams. "I'd say shock would be putting it mildly. Shock along with disbelief," VCU Athletic Director Norwood Teague said of his reaction. "I don't think there's any way that you can defend [that with] what we've done, after all the preaching we get at the mid-major level about our RPI and [11] at-larges had an RPI higher than ours.” The thing is that is actually costs the home team roughly $60,000 to host one of these games plus pay the expenses of the opponents so it is safe to say the Rams would rather be on the road. The Cougars were one of the last teams selected to have their season continue when they were chosen to the field for the CBI. While it isn’t the NCAA Tournament, which was the Cougars’ ultimate goal, head coach Bobby Cremins will be more than happy to get his seniors a couple more games, not to mention get some more court time for a couple of younger players. Charleston won at Eastern Kentucky in the opening round with a depleted roster as five players did not make the trip due to academic issues but most are back tonight even though the playing time for each is small. The matchup is pretty even and Charleston is 6-0 ATS this season coming off a road win as well as being 9-2 ATS this season coming off a win by six points or less. 3* College of Charleston Cougars
Rocketman
Appalachian St vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall -9
Marshall is 15-3 SU at home this year where they are scoring 89.1 points per game and have beat opponents by an average of 20.5 points per game. Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. Thundering Herd are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. My unique power ratings has Marshall winning this game by 18.98 points tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Marshall tonight.
Tom Stryker
DAYTON (+) over Cincinnati
Even though these two teams haven't met since December of 2005, Cincinnati has dominated Dayton to the tune of 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 battles. That may not be the case tonight. The Flyers are as deep as they come and they have more than enough talent on the floor to pull off this upset.
Quietly, the Bearcats have covered three straight against the Las Vegas number and that places them in an automatic "play against" situation here. Since the 1990-91 season, NIT teams coming off three or more pointspread wins are a dismal 62-88-2 ATS. If our side enters with momentum off a blowout victory of 10 points or more, this situation crashes to a woeful 24-39-1 ATS. With those two parameters applied and our "play against" side priced as an underdog or favorite of -4' or less, this system dips to a nasty 16-30-1 ATS! Cincinnati applies to all the pieces of this technical puzzle.
The Bearcats may own the higher seed. But, the Flyers have two solid senior guards in London Warren and Rob Lowry and they have "Wright" stuff to get the job done. Take Dayton.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
Yes, Minnesota has lost 12 in a row, but it comes into this contest with a lot of confidence after playing the Lakers to an 8-point game on the road to easily cover the 15 point spread. "I think it's easy to say that this was our best game, and lot of it had to do with our guys doing the right things," said coach Kurt Rambis. Toronto is struggling as well. It is coming off a road win, but it hasn't won two in a row on the road in more than two months. Plus, the Raptors have been a poor ATS team because of how bad they have been defensively, allowing an Eastern Conference-worst 105.8 ppg. Toronto is 0-7 ATS against Northwest division opponents this season. Fatigue figures to be an issue for the Raptors also. They are just 5-15 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. We'll take the Timberwolves and the points.
Stan Lisowski
MEMPHIS
The Grizzlies are fighting for a playoff spot in the West. They come into this at 6-1 SU as a road favorite, covering 5 of those games. The Kings are 5-16 outright when installed as a home dog.
Sac Lawson
Morehead St. +1.5 vs Boston
That aside, I know a lot of sharp minds will be all over Boston today, and quite frankly.. Here's why I disagree. A lot of Boston's game plan has to do with making three point shots.. and I'll give it to em.. they shoot jumpers quite well. Surprisingly enough though, Morehead is actually the BETTER three-point shooting team. I realize the home court advantage may skew some people to the Boston side when it comes to a jump shooting contest, but hear me out. "The Roof" as they call it, in Boston, is one of those gyms that has nothing behind the baskets. No big bleachers behind the hoops, just walls, and on top of it, the gym is actually pretty bright. I realize most people don't hold much weight to this kind of thing, but i'll tell you right now, in a gym where the scenery behind the hoop never changes, it's very very easy for road teams to adjust. It's like playing in a high school gym. From a former basketball player, trust me guys.. there are certain gyms that ANYONE can shoot in, and this is one of those. I have absolutely no reason to believe Morehead won't shoot to their season average tonight.
I'm 100% not sold on Boston's ability to play defense. I realize a lot of stat guys are going to disagree, but having ACTUALLY SEEN this team play 3 times this season, I know for a fact that their numbers are not indicative of their actual ability to contend jumpers. They play in a very very weak conference, and aside from Stony Brook and Vermont, there is not one team in that league with decent scoring threats. As a result, Boston's defensive stats are greatly skewed.
Two huge edges for Morehead... Rebounding, and Turnovers. Morehead is not an extremely tall team, but their one big man (Kenny Faried) is an absolute force, and their guards crash the boards with amazing efficiency as well. This is one of the best rebounding teams I've seen all year for the amount of size they have. Also, they're a team that is very scrappy and risk-seeking on defense. They force turnovers at a crazy rate, and you put that along with the rebounding edge, and it leads me to seriously think that Morehead could get 10 more shot attempts this evening. Anytime your opponent gets more FGA's, it makes it hard to win.. that's just the nature of the beast.
Listen guys, Morehead is more athletic, they have better scorers, they are 15-20 spots ahead of Boston in just about every power ranking out there. Do not be fooled by one good performance against Oregon State, this Boston team is not great defensively, they don't rebound too well, and their home court is very inviting (not just because of aesthetics, but because it only seats 1,800). Do not be surprised if Morehead goes into The Roof and wins this game by 20 points.
THE PREZ
Celtics vs Jazz
The Boston Celtics are finally healthy enough where their normal starting lineup is finally getting the bulk of their minutes, and this has shown with a return to the good Celtics defense that won them a championship two seasons ago. Look for that defense to keep the Utah Jazz in check here and key an Under.
The Boston Big Four of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo all started and played over 30 minutes in their upset win over the Mavericks at Dallas Saturday night, and with them all now mainly healthy, the Celtics can finally gain the consistency that they have lacked all season with all of the makeshift lineups that they have been forced to play.
The Celtics have now held their last four opponents below 100 points, with possibly the best performance coming in their last game Saturday when they held the red-hot Mavericks to 93 points in their own building. For the entire season, Boston road games are averaging 190.6 points per game, nearly 10 points less than this posted total, and they usually rise up to the challenge of slowing down Western teams, with the Under going 8-2 in their last 10 vs. the West.
The Jazz are one of those typical Western Conference high-powered offenses, averaging 103.6 points per game overall and 106.8 points per game at home. However, the Celtics did hold them to just 86 points when these teams first met in Boston this season, marking the their straight head-to-head meeting that Boston held Utah under 100 points.
Besides, for all of their offense, Utah home games have averaged 203.6 points this season, as the Jazz at least play some defense at home. You can probably shave at least five points off of that average tonight considering that the Jazz are facing a superior defense to what they are accustomed to.
The end result should be a safe Under in a game going no higher than 195ish.
Pick: Celtics/Jazz Under 200
Dave Cokin
Dayton vs.Cincy
Defense is something all teams can fall back on during tourney time, giving them a fighting chance. You can’t spell Dayton without a Big D and this team plays solid defense, 61.7 ppg for the season. They shut down Illinois State the last game, allowing 42 points in a blowout. This frontcourt is strong with Wright and Johnson and they face a city rival here. They have the frontcourt to push the ball into the low post on this Bearcat squad. Play Dayton.
John Ryan
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
3* graded play on Oklahoma City as they take on San Antonio set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that OC will win this game by more than 5 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 60-25 ATS since 2004 and is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and in a game involving two good teams winning between 60% to 75% of their games. Model also shows that OC will score between 99 and 104 points in this game. Note that they are already a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game this season. OC has done very well against similar strong shooting teams like SA. They are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. SA has not faired well against teams like OC, who are posting a +3 or greater scoring differential. SA is just 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Take the THUNDER.
MTi Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are 8-0 ATS at home after a loss in which Kevin Durant was not the Thunder's high scorer and the Spurs are 1-14 ATS with no rest after a loss in which Tim Duncan was not the Spurs' high scorer. Lay the points.
Steve Merril
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
Memphis is fighting for a playoff spot, so every game is huge for them going forward. The Grizzlies cannot afford to overlook the teams playing out the string, so with a trip to Sacramento tonight, we expect Memphis to come with a strong effort against the Kings in this spot. The Grizzlies have been terrific on the road lately as they’ve won and covered 7 of their last 8 games on the highway, and that streak should continue tonight. Sacramento may be without their best player, Tyreke Evans, for tonight’s game. Evans suffered a concussion and injured jaw in the Kings’ heartbreaking double overtime loss to Milwaukee on Friday night. Evans was injured with just about 2 minutes left to play in the game when Sacramento held an 8-point lead. Once he left the court, the Kings offense went stale and they allowed the Bucks to tie the game and win it in double OT. The Kings played terrific in their win at the Clippers yesterday afternoon. They were able to win by 13 points without Evans who did not play because of his injury. But we often see teams step-up in the absence of their best player in that first game. However, in the game that follows, we usually see that team suffer a letdown as they are unable to sustain the emotional high from winning without their best player. Evans is listed as questionable tonight as is the Grizzlies’ Marc Gasol, and since we haven’t been able to confirm either player’s status, we’ll just suggest Memphis as a free play for tonight.