Dave Price
1 Unit on Memphis Grizzlies -2
The Grizzlies have actually been playing their best ball on the road where they have gone 7-1 SU & ATS in their last 8 road games. This is also a team that has handled weaker opponents, going 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Kings have lost 4 in a row ATS as a home underdog and they are an awful 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay this small number with the Grizzlies here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks +6
I know Milwaukee is playing some good basketball, and I know the Hawks just played a tough overtime game last night, but the Bucks are being overvalued here. I'll gladly take the points when you consider that the Hawks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, plays against home favorites (MILWAUKEE) in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game), a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 52-37 ATS this season. The last 5 seasons, the favorite has been favored by 7.2 points on average in these spots, but is only winning by 4.7 points on average. We'll take the points in what should be a close game.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago Bulls -2
Chicago ended their 10-game losing streak with the return of Derrick Rose on Saturday, winning at Philly 98-84. Joakim Noah is also back in the line-up, and the Bulls are making one final playoff push as we near the end of the season. This is the 1st of three straight home games, all must-wins for the Bulls. The Houston Rockets are a putrid 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Chicago has been a streaky team, as the Bulls are 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a game where they covered the spread this season. Houston is the more tired team, having won 116-112 in New York last night in a game that certainly took a lot out of them. The Rockets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. Take Chicago and lay the points.
Jack Jones
College of Charleston +13
Charleston is simply catching too many points in this match-up with Virginia Commonwealth. Charleston is 10-2 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Charleston has been going under the radar all season, going 18-9 ATS in their 27 lined games. Charleston is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a road win this season. They come in confident after beating Eastern Kentucky 82-79 on the road as a 3.5-piont dog. Charleston has now covered 5 of their last 6 against the spread, yet they aren't getting the respect they deserve from the odds makers tonight.
This play also falls under a system that is 32-0 (78%) over the past 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (VA COMMONWEALTH) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Take advantage of this gift by the odds makers and roll with Charleston Monday.
Matt Rivers
College of Charleston +12.5 at Virginia Commonwealth.
At first glance I could not believe that the Fighting Bobby Cremins were getting so many points here. I knew that VCU is one of the better teams in a decent enough Colonial Conference, which is a step above the Southern Conference, but a dozen plus seemed like too much.
I am not wavering from that feeling but fully trusting the Cougars on the road against a superior squad from a superior conference is asking a lot and too much to make a real play on.
Earlier in the season College of Charleston shocked North Carolina. Looking back now in late March that victory is obviously watered down as the Tar Heels have struggled mightily but they were a top 10 team at that point and the victory still shows enough about Cremins' squad. Also the Cougs did go 14-4 in conference and 21-11 overall and have a superstar in Andrew Goudelock that can dominate for stretches in this thing.
On Bracketbuster weekend C of C won on the road at a rival for VCU in George Mason. The Rams are certainly better than Jim Laranagga's boys this season but that should have been a confidence building win for this spot against another Colonial Conference opponent. The Cougars have also won six of their final 9 this season away from John Kresse Arena proving they just do not fold up shop when on the highway.
VCU is a very good 22-9 and Shaka Smart's team will probably grab victory number 23 here behind Larry Sanders and Joey Rodriguez. But for the Rams to be laying 13 or so in this spot seems a bit too hefty for me and I'm therefore going to make a small play on the visitors as they keep this thing within single digits, at worst, in the end.
Pick: Charleston +12.5