DAVE COKIN
BOSTON CELTICS AT BROOKLYN NETS
PLAY: BOSTON CELTICS +4
As far as anything pertaining to the NBA title is concerned, this game between the Celtics and Nets has no meaning. But for two teams just on the outside looking in as far as getting to the playoffs goes, this is a very big basketball game. Boston and Brooklyn are just off the #7 and #8 seeds right now. A win in a head to head meeting such as this one is very meaningful.
The Celtics are on a three-game losing streak following the Sunday OT loss to the Pistons. The Nets have won their last two to gain some positive momentum. But I’m not sure how much momentum means to a losing team. If they were able to consistently build on plus results, they wouldn’t be a losing team. In fact, I think one can make a better argument that short winning streaks might actually signal a sell sign as these teams have a tough time avoiding quick regressions.
That thought also comes into play as far as Boston goes. They’re not good, but perhaps the biggest reason the Celtics are still in the post-season hunt has been their ability to avoid long losing skids. A quick check shows Boston is 6-2 this season playing off a three-game loss streak.
The fact Boston played OT on Sunday while the Nets were off will be reflected in the betting number being slightly adjusted here. The oddsmakers will frequently add a point to a rested home favorite hosting a visit that played the extra session the prior day. But I’ll hope that it’s a bit misplaced here. One thing that’s certain is that the Celtics don’t have a problem playing without rest. In fact, that’s really when they’ve been at their best this season.
Marcus Smart will be back in action tonight for Boston following his one-game suspension for hitting an opponent. Smart has played better lately and is showing signs that he’s starting to figure things out. I mention Smart here not because he’s a difference maker at this point, but it sure looks to me like Boston has a better rotation with him on the floor, and that he was missed Sunday against the Pistons.
I think the key tonight is the bench for Brooklyn, which has been on fire the last two games. If that takes place again tonight, I’m probably up a tree here. But on paper, that’s not really a likelihood and the Nets have simply not shown a particular ability to string together more than a couple of good games at a time. Brooklyn has enjoyed ten two-game win streaks this season. They’re only 3-7 trying to make it three in a row.
This figures to be a battle, and it’s one I feel could go either way. It is, for all intents and purposes, a playoff game of sorts for the two rivals. The situation, based on past performance this season, favors Boston and I don’t think the Celtics are a bad option catching more than one possession tonight.
Mike Lundin
Winnipeg vs. Edmonton
Play: Over 5.5
The Jets are off four wins on the bounce as they're visiting Western Conference foe the Oilers at Edmonton tonight. The hosts may be sitting near the bottom of the table, but they've at least got some offense going of late scoring four goals or more in five of their last seven games. With Winnipeg playing at Vancouver tomorrow there is a possibility we will see back-up Michael Hutchinson in the Jets net here, and he's allowed seven goals over his last two outings. The ever struggling Ben Scrivens is likely to get the nod to tend the Oilers goal despite allowing 15 goals over his last five outings.
The over is 15-5-1 in the Jets last 21 away from home and 6-1 in the Oilers last seven overall. None of the last seven meetings in Edmonton have failed to reach the total, and I think we're in for another high-scoring contest at Rexall Place tonight.
Cajun Sports
Grizzlies vs. Knicks
Play: Under 185.5
The Grizzlies travel to the Big Apple to face the Knickerbockers on Monday night tip is set for 7:35PM Eastern Time. With the Grizzlies coming off a home game and now play on the road in the current price range they have cashed Under tickets at a rate of 13-26-1 Under. If Memphis won straight up and went Under the posted total in their last game and have now been installed as a favorite their record is 63-104-1 Under. We note that teams with a losing record like the Knicks who have lost at least three consecutive games both su and ats and now play at home in the current price range have gone Under the total at a rate of 10-22 Under. If those losing teams are facing a non-conference opponent the Under has cashed at a rate of 117-151-5 Under install them as an underdog their total record is 101-134-5 Under. Play this one to fall well below the posted total on Monday night. Under
Rob Vinciletti
Houston Rockets vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -1
The Pacers will look to snap a 5 game slide here tonight against Houston and have won the last 2 her in the series at home. The pacers are off a blowout home favored loss 123-11 to Brooklyn and that result sets them up in a rare system that plays on home teams that managed to score 110 points at home and still lose to the spread by 21+ points as they were an 8.5 point favorite. These teams have won and covered the only 4 times in follow up games and by an average 109-94 score. Also of note is that the home team has covered 75% if both teams failed to cover at home by 21 or more regardless of how many points they scored. Houston also comes in of a bad 15 point home loss. Based on the data above we will Play the pacers to snap their losing streak.
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland St -4
The Vikings are coming off an 86-57 win at Western Michigan to improve its ATS road record to 10-6 this season and 21-8 dating to last season. Guard Charlie Lee made eight 3-pointers and scored 28 points against the Broncos. The Vikings have been playing great defense in recent games allowing just 39 percent from the floor their last five games and just 30.9 percent against Western Michigan. Guard Trey Lewis leads CSU with 16.6 points per game followed by Anton Grady (13.9) and Lee (12.9). NJIT does have that big win at Michigan but due to lack of a conference affiliation, the Highlanders play a relatively easy schedule. NJIT is led by Damon Lynn who averages 17.5 points per game while shooting only 37 percent. I believe CSU will win this one going away and I'm recommending a play on Cleveland State minus the points.
Art Aronson
Evansville vs. Eastern Illinois
Play: Eastern Illinois +2½
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question between these very evenly matched teams, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Eastern Illinois to at the very least, keep this one close enough to escape with the ATS victory. Evansville is coming off an 82-77 win over IPFW to advance to the second round of the CIT. There's some room to read between the lines in the Purple Aces win though as they'd see a 23 point second half lead dwindle down the stretch. Eastern Illinois on the other hand shot 55 percent from the floor on its way to a 97-91 victory over a tough Oakland team in its CIT opener on Tuesday; note that the Panthers were up just 42-41 at halftime, before then outscoring the competition 55-50 in the second half. Note that Evansville has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, a poor 9-10 ATS when playing the role of favourite and interestingly, only 3-4 ATS vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 point or less per contest. And note, this is a spot in which the Panthers have excelled in this season, 11-7 ATS as the underdog and 8-4 ATS in all non-conference games. Consider a second look at EASTERN ILLINOIS in this one.
Steve Rosen
Houston Rockets vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Houston Rockets +1
Indiana looks to end an ill-timed five-game losing streak at home against Houston on Monday, HOWEVER that will not happen as the Rockets will win this game. The Pacers' slide - their fourth of at least five games - has put a dent in their playoff hopes, as they enter tied with Boston for the final spot in the Eastern Conference. The latest setback involved their worst defensive showing of the season in a 123-111 loss to Brooklyn on Saturday! On the other hand, Houston is trying to hold off four teams for the third spot in the West and trail second-place Memphis by 2 1/2 games after a 117-102 loss at home against Phoenix on Saturday. James Harden followed up his 50-point effort with 16 on 5-of-19 shooting as the Rockets had a three-game winning streak come to an end. Houston is 7-3 ATS in the 1-2.5 underdog position, while Pacers are 4-6. If George does return tonight I see him being rusty and only making Houston play with a chip on their shoulder.Also, Rockets SF Trevor Ariza is averaging 17 points - nearly five above his season average - and eight rebounds - 2.5 over his norm - over a four-game stretch. Rockets come out hard and getting value at +1.
Will Rogers
Buffalo vs. Dallas
Play: Over 5½
The Dallas Stars are on the rise again having won seven of their last nine games. They've done so thanks to a prolific offense, and more goals are in the cards Monday as they're hosting the league worst Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo has lost nine of its last 10, allowing three goals or more on eight of those occasions. Dallas is an enormous favorite here, but I think the smart money is on the total to go over.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. The Stars Way - We find Dallas sitting 12th in the West, six points back of the final wild card in the conference. When they fail to make the playoffs they can blame sub-par defending as Dallas has allowed 3.15 goals per game which is almost on par with Buffalo's 3.28 goals conceded per game. The only reason the Stars have managed to stay competitive at all is thanks to a prolific offense that has averaged 3.07 goals per game on the season, and both Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin rank among the best in the league for points.
2. Special Teams - Dallas converted on two of its three chances on the man advantage against the Blackhawks top rated penalty kill Saturday. It should be able to run riot here, facing the very worst penalty kill unit in the NHL that is showing less than a 75% success rate. Buffalo has scored in three of its last 13 power play opportunities, and Dallas is not exactly known for its effective penalty kill.
3. X-Factor - Buffalo allowed three goals at Nashville Saturday and the over is 4-0 in its last four games playing on one day of rest.
Don Best Consensus
Colorado vs Seattle
Pick: Colorado
Seattle has had a nice little run, but it all comes to an end tonight. The Redhawks have taken care of business against the weak competition they've faced, but the Buffs are more talented and athletic than most teams they've seen all season
Seattle is a home dog for a reason. Energy and motivation was the concern with Colorado early on, but now they have shown that while they're in this thing, why not win it. The Buffs move on to the next round and are projected to beat the Redhawks by 8+
Marc Lawrence
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
Edges - Bulls: 7-0 SUATS last seven with same season double revenge-exact versus non-rested opponents; and 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS before facing the Raptors. Hornets: 0-4 ATS last four versus foe seeking same season double revenge-exact. With the Bulls 16-5 ATS in their last twenty-one games when seeking revenge from a double-digit loss, we recommend a 1-unit play on Chicago.
Jim Feist
Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors
Pick: Washington Wizards
There's no doubt that Golden State is the best team in the NBA and on any day can easily beat the Wizards. However, the Warriors are in a tough spot here, playing four games in five nights. The Golden State Warriors ahve won five straight and 10 of the last 11. They have also covered three straight and four of five. The Warriors are without star shooting guard Klay Thompson with an ankle injury, but that hasn't slowed the Warriors of late. However, HC Steve Kerr has showed his propensity to rest players just in this type of spot. I have to think the Warriors will look to give their players some extra bench time here in tonight's contest with Portland and Memphis coming up. I'm taking the points here tonight with Memphis and looking for a lower scoring game with Golden State taking it a bit more easy on their players.
Bryan Power
Illinois St. vs. Old Dominion
Pick: Old Dominion
I've said it before & I'll say it again here. The NIT will generally see the home teams prevail, so take advantage of laying a short number w/ a host when you can. Home teams went 3-0 SU/ATS in Sunday NIT action & I see the trend continuing here as top-seeded Old Dominion hosts Illinois State.
Only one top seed in the NIT has fallen so far, that being Colorado State in its opening game against South Dakota State. You'll usually see one of those upsets every year in this event of a disinterested favorite that can't get over being left out of the Big Dance. Other than that though, the chalk will walk. All other top three seeds won their first round NIT games this year, except one, that being Illinois who actually had to play on the road.
ODU, a perfect 18-0 SU at home this season, won its first NIT game 65-56 over Charleston Southern. They didn't cover due to being a 13-point favorite, but as you can see, the number is far more manageable here. Illinois State may have only lost once in its last eight games (MVC Final to Northern Iowa), but there have only been two "true" road games during that span & they will struggle here against a Monarchs defense that allows just 52.4 PPG at home.
Dave Essler
Illinois St. +3.5
This Tournament, just like the big one, is all about matchups and even more so about motivation. From a matchup standpoint, ODU struggled with teams that play a similar style and pace than that of Illinois State. In conference play, those teams would have been UAB and UTEP, who both beat them pretty handily, albeit on the road. Illinois State play a much tougher schedule, both early in the MVC is just that much better than Conference USA. Illinois State is a better rebounding team, a better free throw shooting team, and have the nucleus back from a team that played in the post-season last year. They were very impressive beating Green Bay - albeit at home, while ODU had to work hard to pull away from Charleston Southern at home. Since February 7th the only losses ISU has suffered were to Northern Iowa and the Shockers. ODU was beaten in the C-USA Tournament in round one by MTSU - who I have little respect for this season. This ought to be a close game (1H bet?) - as UDO just doesn't play fast enough to run away from people. They CAN play enough defense, and the only caveat keeping this from being a bigger play is that it's a rematch from a game played in St. Thomas earlier this season - and La Tech won handily. ODU couldn't score and was seriously out-rebounded. However, even some regression to the mean should keep this a close game throughout, and I can''t trust ODU's 66% in-conference FT shooting to cover late, if need be.
Wunderdog
San Jose @ Ottawa
Pick: Under 5.5
San Jose plays its fourth straight road game here, and the offense is in a slump scoring 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 0 goals in six of the last seven. San Jose is on a 5-2 run UNDER the total, plus 4-0 UNDER against the Eastern Conference. Ottawa is on a 3-2 run UNDER the total as part of its six game win streak, playing great defense anchored by goalie Andrew Hammond. Hammond is 13-0-1 with a 1.65 GAA for Ottawa, and this shapes up as a defensive duel. Play this one UNDER the total.
MLB Predictions
Washington Nationals -128
The Yankees don’t have their regular starters in the line up today behind young pitcher Bryan Mitchell who has pitched 4 innings this spring giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs. The Nationals will send Doug Fister to the mound who hasn’t been spectacular this spring allowing 11 hits and 3 earned runs over 8.1 innings, but as we get closer to opening day I expect a better outing this afternoon. The Nats are putting out a pretty good line up this afternoon and I will take them at a good price.
Chicago White Sox +111
Again, I bet small in spring training and for good reason – I’m placing this wager without even knowing the line ups being sent out this afternoon from either team. This bet is completely backing White Sox starter Jose Quintana who has looked great so far this spring with 11.1 innings of work and just 6 hits, 2 earned runs with 11 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Tyson Ross, who pitches for the Padres, has pitched 7.2 innings across three outings this spring giving up 7 hits and 6 runs (4 earned) with 5 walks to 7 strikeouts. I’ll take the White Sox at an underdog price with Quintana expected to get 5+ innings this afternoon.