Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Illinois State / Old Dominion Under 128.5: I know the new shot clock rules are expected to increase scoring, but teams have to still be able to score and that is something that ODU has not allowed teams to do this year, especially at home, where they have allowed just 52.4 ppg on 37.6% shooting for the year. In their first home game in the NIT Tournament, under the new rules, they allowed a very good Charleston Southern offense just 56 points. Now they face a weaker Illinois State offense that has scored just 66.5 ppg on 41.4% shooting on the road for the year. The Redbirds can hit their free throws, but other than that they are not a god shooting team and ODU is an excellent defensive team. On offense ODU is not so good, as they come in scoring just 65.3 ppg overall and 67.8 ppg at home, while Illinois State has allowed just 62.5 ppg overall and 66.2 ppg on the road. The last 9 ODU games have not produced more than 127 points in any game, with an average of 117.3 ppg being scored in those games. We also note that ODU has allowed just 52.4 pg in their last 8 games overall. Hard to see either team hitting 64 points in this one. It should be a slow paced game (even with the new rules) and the defense should really have a good showing here, especially that ODU defense. 62-58 sounds about right for this one.
Sammy P
Los Angeles at New Jersey
Play: Los Angeles -150
The Los Angeles Kings face off against the New Jersey Devils tonight in another important "must win" game. Last week I wrote about the desperation the Kings have been playing with, and that hasn't changed one bit. Perhaps even more desperation has set in as they've lost their last two games against two very good teams in Anaheim and Vancouver. Los Angeles opens up an East Coast road trip that will see them play five games in eight nights. They are currently sitting four points behind (with one game in hand) the Winnipeg Jets for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. I expect a maximum effort tonight from the Kings against a dead-in-the- water Devils team that isn't going anywhere. Despite the decently high -150 line, I still see plenty of value. The Devils are just 9-17 versus the Western Conference this season. For years now the most dominate teams in the Western Conference have value when they go on the road to play the East and we can get a reduced price. The Kings are 7-2-1 in their last ten road games and playing a solid road hockey style. Exp
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -½ -123 over TORONTO
Regulation only. The Maple leafs last win was on March 11 when they defeated the Sabres 4-3 in OT. That must seem like a year ago to these players. Since that win over Buffalo, Toronto has allowed 6, 4, 4, 4 and 5 goals respectively. Since Jan 2, a span of 36 games, Toronto has six wins and two of those occurred against Buffalo and Edmonton. Look at the Maple Leafs box score summary and you’ll see something like this:
TOR GOAL: Tim Erixon (2) Unassisted;
TOR GOAL: Joakim Lindstrom (4) Assists: Dion Phaneuf, Sam Carrick.
This Maple Leafs team is perhaps the worst team put together in the history of the NHL. They are made up of nothing but fourth line players along with some NHL rejects and castoffs. The skilled players that they do employ checked out long ago. The only skater performing with any heart is Zach Sill, the stiff they got from Pittsburgh in the Daniel Winnick deal and the only thing he can do is fight. Dude thinks it matters. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a disgrace beyond words. The Buffalo Sabres in Dallas tonight have a 100 times better shot of defeating the Stars than the Leafs do of defeating the Wild, yet the Stars are a 4-1 favorite. Toronto has taken five minors or more in each of its past three games. The oddmakers prevented us from playing the Senators against the Maple Leafs on Saturday because they made Ottawa a big favorite and a regulation favorite of -½ -140. We’re not going to miss the opportunity to fade the Leafs spotting 6/5. Just because a team is favored doesn’t mean there isn’t value. Toronto has nine games remaining and we’re going to do our best to fade them in every one because chances are great that they are going to go winless the rest of the way. We love the Leafs because they’ve been a cash cow the second half the season and they’ll be a cash cow in their final nine games.
As for the Wild, well there isn’t anything to say other than they’re still playing great, they just beat the Blues 6-3 and they rarely if ever, take a shift, let alone a night off. The Wild cannot let up, as they are in a serious fight with Winnipeg, Calgary, Los Angeles and Vancouver to make the playoffs. Two of those teams will miss the post-season and Toronto is not going to get in the way of the Wild. Invest.
San Jose +125 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are the talk of the NHL. Here’s a team that was in the “Connor McDavid” discussion in early February and now they’re favored to overtake the Bruins to get into the playoffs. Ottawa is just one point behind the Bruins for the final playoff spot but the Sens have two games in hand and this is one of them. A win here and they’ll leapfrog over the Bruins. The bigger story of course is Andrew Hammond, who is 13-0-1 with a 1.65 goals against average since arriving on the scene in mid-February. The Sens are on a serious roll unlike any team in the league this season but now you’ll pay a premium to wager on them. That makes us sellers. Cinderella stories happen from time to time but the clock always strikes midnight and so a team as average as the Senators cannot maintain their winning ways much longer. The Senators have been outshot in eight of their past 11 games. Two of the teams they outshot over that span were Toronto and Buffalo. Hammond has been tagged for seven goals over his last two games but the Senators persevered by scoring 11 times. That goal explosion cannot last either. We’re not going to disparage what the Senators have accomplished over the last month, nor the excitement they have caused in their city but now they’ll play with a little extra pressure on them.
San Jose is not dead yet. They played a great game in Montreal on Saturday night but were stymied by Carey Price in a 2-0 loss (Montreal scored an empty net goal with 7 seconds left). San Jose is 1-3 over their past four games but they deserve much better, as they outshot Chicago 35-30 and lost, they dominated Winnipeg and lost and they were not the second best team on the ice against Montreal and lost. Prior to those four games, San Jose won four of five, defeating the Canucks 6-2, the Canadiens 4-0, Nashville, 2-0 and Pittsburgh 2-1. San Jose’s only loss over that span was against Vancouver, 3-2 in a game they fired away 40 shots on net. In reality, the Sharks could easily be on a streak of eight wins over their past nine games, The Sharkies are playing perhaps their best hockey since the first 15 games of the season. They are working relentlessly to get back in the Wild Card race. When Ottawa visited San Jose 10 games ago, the Sharks were -175 to win that game. Yeah things have changed somewhat but this is still the same two teams. Ottawa cannot go from a +164 pooch to a -135 favorite in the span of three weeks against a team that is actually playing better than they are but do not have the same results. Once again the market is placing too much value on wins and losses and once again we’ll attack that flaw. Big overlay.
Los Angeles -½ +113 over NEW JERSEY
Regulation only. The Devils are playing much better these days with 10 wins in their past 16 games but don’t be fooled by it. New Jersey defeated Buffalo (twice), Vancouver, Carolina, Arizona (twice), Columbus, Nashville, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Both Nashville and Pittsburgh are reeling right now and when the Devils defeated the Canucks it was a day after Vancouver went into MSG and beat the Rangers in OT. The other victories were all against non-playoff teams. Against the top-10 teams in the NHL, the Devils are 5-16 and against the top-16, they are 11-31. The Kings are a top-10 team that do not have the points to prove it. In each of their six losses over that span, New Jersey scored two or less in all of them. The Devils have been winning because they’ve caught some teams at the right time but this isn’t one of those times to say the least.
The Kings are just two points behind Calgary for the final Wild Card spot and they have a game in hand (Calgary plays Colorado tonight). Los Angeles now begins a five game trip beginning here that will ultimately decide their playoff fate. After this game, the Kings will play in New York against the Rangers followed by games in Long Island, Minnesota and Chicago. We cannot stress enough how crucial this first game of said trip is for the Kings. A loss tonight combined with a Flames win puts L.A. four back with games on the road against the Rangers, Islanders, Wild and Blackhawks on deck. The Kings perhaps had this trip on their minds when they were manhandled by the Canucks on Saturday back in L.A. A sub-par effort here is not an option. We’re positive that Coach Darryl Sutter has these Kings thinking that this game should be treated like the 7th game of a playoff series because a loss here and the Kings will be circling the drain big time. The Kings lead the NHL in shots against per game and New Jersey is last in shots on goal per game. You do the math.
Sleepyj
La.-Monroe +4.5
I find some value in this number here..I had this game rated Mercer -1..UL Monroe can win this game outright..They really lead in some major categories...We win the rebounds battle and on the defensive end the Warhawks get the nod as well..I think UL Monroe has a legit shot to win this game today..I'll grab the +4.5 here.
GoodFella
Seattle +5.5
I have this game lined Colorado -3 (with no Booker) they are also w/out Thomas, too (both leaving the program). So value for me here with this Seattle club. Booker was Mr do it all for this Buffalo club & his absence is huge. Colorado also much less dangerous playing away from their HOME floor and altitude edge they have when at home. Bottom line for me is that I have this game as a 1 possession game & I will grab the +5.5 here with what I see as a 'live home dog'
Dave Price
Washington Wizards +11½
The Golden State Warriors (56-13) have all but wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and the No. 1 seed overall in the NBA. I look for them to kind of coast to the finish line now. They are overvalued due to their record, and now they find themselves laying a huge number to the Washington Wizards tonight. The Wizards had won five straight prior to back-to-back ugly road losses to the LA Clippers and Sacramento Kings. Those two efforts have certainly added a few points to this spread tonight, and that's why there is some value with the Wizards here. The last two meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less, including an 88-85 win by Washington as 8-point dogs in its last trip to Golden State. The Wizards are 14-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last two years. Washington is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 9 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Warriors are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.
Jimmy Boyd
Indiana Pacers -1
Indiana has dropped five straight games since their 7-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. The Pacers haven't lost 4 consecutive home games since 2010 and I don't expect that streak to come to an end. This game means a lot more to Indiana than it does Houston. The Pacers are tied with Boston for the 9th spot in the Eastern Conference, a half-game back of 8th place Charlotte for the final playoff spot. Houston on the other hand is sitting in 3rd in the west.
Houston comes in off a 102-117 loss at home to the Suns, which snapped a 3-game winning streak. In each of the Rockets last three defeats that snapped a streak of 2 or more straight wins, they went on to lose the following game.
In the Pacers last game they fell at home 111-123 to the Nets as a 8.5-point favorite. Indiana is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 following a double-digit loss at home and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100+ points. The Pacers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home versus a team with a winning road record.
Doug Upstone
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Chicago Blackhawks -176
Play On a ML favorite like CHICAGO with a starting goalie saving 91.5 percent or higher of shot attempts against him in the second half of the season, with an offense which has five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. When you combine a good netminder with an offense which peppering the net, the favorite is 88-31 the last 18 seasons, including a perfect 3-0 this year.
Brandon Lee
Murray State vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -4
This line opened up at Tulsa -2.5 and despite the public being all over Murray State (60%), we have seen the line jump up to -4 and moving towards -4.5. This is a good sign that the big money is on the Golden Hurricane and I too think it's the right side of this matchup. Tulsa went 13-4 at home and are out to prove their 14-4 record inside the AAC was no fluke. You could say the same thing about the Racers, who were also left out of the Tournament, but I don't think Murray State is as good as the media is making them out to be. Let's not forget this is a team that lost at home to Houston, who finished 4-14 (10th) in the AAC. Tulsa is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after winning 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 after 3 straight games where they held their opponent to 40% or worse from the field.
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -1
The Indiana Pacers come into this game against the Houston Rockets highly motivated for a victory. They now find themselves a half-game back of Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, so their margin for error is very slim.
They were almost comfortably in the playoffs before losing five straight coming in. They had won seven in a row prior to this 5-game skid and were playing their best ball of the season. However, they have played a pretty tough schedule here of late, which is the biggest culprit for their struggles.
Houston has been plenty vulnerable here of late as it continues to be short-handed without Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones. It has gone just 5-5 in its last 10 games overall, including a 102-117 home loss to Phoenix last time out. Its five wins during this stretch have come against Detroit, Denver (twice), Orlando and LA Clippers, which is far from impressive.
Indiana is 146-105 ATS in its last 251 home games against Western Conference opponents. The Pacers are 253-195 ATS revenging a road loss against an opponent since 1996. Kevin McHale is 16-29 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as a favorite as the coach of Houston.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Bulls -6
Chicago won't have any trouble getting motivated for this one, as they come in off a 16-point loss at Detroit in their last contest, plus will be playing with double-revenge, which includes a recent loss at Charlotte just 10 days ago. While it may appear the Hornets cruised to a 11-point win over the Timberwolves last night, they actually trailed by 5-points at the half. Not only will Charlotte be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days and 5th overall on their current road trip. Hornets are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 after playing 4 straight on the road, while Chicago is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points.
Gabriel DuPont
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Louisiana Tech - Confidence should prevail with the third-seeded Bulldogs, who beat Georgia in the second round last year. Now they have another chance to knock off another SEC foe, and the momentum from this past season and experience from last season will help.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Texas A&M - Texas A&M got here wih a win over Montana, while Tech got past Central Michigan in the opening round. I think the team with the harder game has edge, which means the Aggies are going to struggle in stepping up in class, much more than the Dawgs.
Overall, why LOUISIANA TECH is my FREE PLAY in this game - I was wondering how the Bulldogs would respond from a disappointing loss, as they needed a victory to jolt a locker room that was desperately trying to overcome a semifinal exit from the Conference USA Tournament. Senior guard Speedy Smith scoffed at the notion the Dawgs would come out flat, and said his team would win the event after that loss to UAB. The Bulldogs looked hungry, scoring 89 against CMU.
Look for that offensive explosion to help the underdog Dawgs, who have covered 14 of 19 on Mondays. Now that may seem like a stretch, but Mondays are a big day in college hoops, whether it's during the regular season or now. After a weekend of hype on the big boys, you have to wonder who can step up and steal the spotlight. I'd rather count on Louisiana Tech, rather than Texas A&M, which is mired in a 3-8 ATS slide against C-USA teams.
4* LOUISIANA TECH
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Murray State Racers, as they head to Tulsa to play the Golden Hurricane in a matchup of No. 2 and 3 seeds. For anyone who enjoyed the down-to-the-wire action over the weekend in the Senior Prom, set your DVRs for this Junior Prom game, as the littler dance has a great game on tap.
Both teams feel like they should have been playing in the bigger dance, but now relegated here, it's time to put up or shut up.
Murray State missed out on waltzing with the big boys after winning 25 games in a row - the nation’s second-longest winning streak this season - and recording an undefeated season in the Ohio Valley Conference before losing by one point to Belmont in the conference tournament game.
One point.
The Racers were arguably the class of the OVC this past season and want to get to New York City. Their goal is to be in the last quartet in Madison Square Garden. And I think because of their poise and maturity, they can get there, as they bring an 11-game road winning streak to the Reynolds Center. Their last road loss? An 89-62 setback at Xavier on Nov. 24.
Tonight I like the underdog, as they have something to prove.
4* MURRAY STATE
Scott Delaney
It's not the main show, and not even the second dance. But for Colorado and Seattle - the CBI is enough motivation to say: "Hey, at least we're still playing, not like, uhm, UNLV, which didn't even accept its invite."
And for as well as the Pac 12 has done this postseason, and as exciting as the Pac 12 tourney was, I have to side with the better team from the better conference here.
Seattle expects a sellout crowd at the 1,050-seat Connolly Center for the matchup against the Buffaloes, and while the home crowd will be shouting for the Redhawks, I have to side with Colorado, which has been battlin under the mantra of 'The Future.'
What I like about this team is the youth, and how coach Tad Boyle has had no problem putting confidence in his younger upstarts, allowing them to exert their talent on the floor.
It's been the carefree, loose approach that makes this team appealing to me, and I think that given the schedule of strength, the Buffs roll here.
4* COLORADO
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the New York Knicks plus the points at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.
If there's one thing I've learned about Memphis... it's that they play to the level of their competition. Over the weekend they really ramped up their game in a 112-101 win over the lowly Dallas Mavericks in a game that really wasn't as close as the score might have indicated.
Meanwhile, I've also seen the Grizzlies somehow struggle against teams like Detroit, Washington, Boston, Milwaukee, New Orleans, etc. and the Knicks are about as bad as it gets... so what's likely in store for tonight is a very "ho hum" effort from the Grizz tonight. They will play just good enough to get the win, but they won't put in a lot of effort and they won't expend a lot of energy in order to keep the starters healthy and fresh for the playoffs.
New York, on the other hand, is just trying to get through the season as quickly and quietly as possible, but along the way they have played decent basketball... enough to cover some games and stay within the big pointspreads.
I don't see New York winning this game, but they can surely stay within 14 points. Take the Knicks as your free play of the day.
2* NEW YORK