Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 25

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Houston at George Mason
The Patriots look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 non-conference games. George Mason is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-6)

Game 613-614: Robert Morris at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 55.374; Providence 66.196
Dunkel Line: Providence by 11; 142
Vegas Line: Providence by 8 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-8 1/2); Over

Game 615-616: Mercer at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 56.284; BYU 64.887
Dunkel Line: BYU by 8 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 143
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-7); Under

Game 617-618: Louisiana Tech at Southern Mississippi (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 58.293; Southern Mississippi 67.286
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 9; 147
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 8; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-8); Over

Game 621-622: Houston at George Mason (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 55.425; George Mason 63.312
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 8; 147
Vegas Line: George Mason by 6; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-6); Under

Game 623-624: Richmond at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 61.961; Wright State 60.486
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 1 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Wright State by 1; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (+1); Over

Game 625-626: Santa Clara at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 58.705; Purdue 71.082
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 12 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Purdue by 6 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-6 1/2); Under

Game 627-628: Western Michigan at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 53.071; Wyoming 60.543
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 7 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 6; 127
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-6); Under

Game 629-630: UC-Irvine at Oral Roberts (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 55.708; Oral Roberts 56.589
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 1; 145
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 4 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+4 1/2); Over

Andrew Lange

Santa Clara at Purdue
Play: Purdue

With the exception on an early season win at Saint Louis, Santa Clara has had a real difficult time stepping up in class. Against the WCC's Big Three (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU), the Broncos went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS. Of those six games, only one was decided by double-digits; a seven-point home loss to Gonzaga. And don't be fooled by SC's opening round win and cover vs. Vermont. It was an absolutely horrific travel spot/situation for the Catamounts and yet they played dead even with Santa Clara for 39 minutes before fouls and free throws created a misleading margin of victory. Purdue is using the CBI as a means of extending the careers of its seniors while getting some of its young kids extended looks. They got past Western Illinois in the first round, 81-67. I'm not sure we get a "balls out" effort from the Boilermakers but I trust Matt Painter to have his kids at least somewhat prepared. With Santa Clara, there is a distinct possibility of a no-show after traveling cross country to snowy West Lafayette. Worth a play on the home favorite at the medium price.

Marc Lawrence

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic

The red-hot Heat look to extend their streak to 27 wins in a row when they invade Disney World to take on the Magic Monday evening. Aside from the pressure that mounts with each win, Miami has been playing down to the level of opposition all season as evidenced by its 6-11 ATS mark versus .333 or less foes, including 0-6 the last six, heading into last night's contest with Charlotte. With the Magic already having battled the Heat to one and two point losses this season, and the Heat 0-6-1 ATS in this series without rest, look for Orlando to improve to 11-2-1 ATS as a host in this series here tonight when Miami escapes with yet another close shave. We recommend a 1-unit play on Orlando.

Art Aronson

Edmonton vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville

These teams have played each other twice this season: Nashville won 6-0 at home on January 8th. Edmonton won 3-2 at home on March 17th. The Oilers are 11-12-7 overall, and only 6-7-3 on the road. Edmonton has lost two straight, including a listless 3-0 setback to St. Louis on Saturday (Blues goaltender Jaroslav Halak needed to stop only 19 shots for the shutout). Nashville is only 13-13-6 overall, but 8-2-4 at home. The Predators have won two straight, most recently a 5-2 destruction of the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday. Nashville would jump out to an early 4-0 lead in the first period and then cruised the rest of the way. The Predators sit just one game back of eighth place Dallas, and will look to keep the momentum rolling after totalling ten goals over their past two outings. The Oilers have a chance at redemption with a tough game in St. Louis tomorrow night, while the Predators enjoy two whole days off after this evenings contest. Consider laying the reasonable price on the hungry home side.

Bruce Marshall

Richmond vs. Wright St.
Pick: Richmond

As noted in previewing of Wright State's opening-round game vs. Tulsa, the Raiders butter their bread on the stop end, allowing only 58 ppg. As the Golden Hurricane found out in a painful manner in the eventual 72-52 beatdown administered by WSU at the Nutter Center, where John McCain once introduced Sarah Palin as his GOP running mate back in 2008. All credit to Raider HC Billy Donlon, who got his troops to fully embrace a fanatical stop-end work ethic in the offseason when top scorer Julius Mays decided to transfer to Kentucky for his final season of eligibility (isn't it interesting that WSU's campaign has lasted longer than the Cats'?). Richmond still appeared a bit shell-shocked by its controversial A-10 Tourney exit vs. Charlotte when having lots of trouble vs. America East rep Bryant in their CBI opener. And the relatively-soft Spider "D" (ranks 252nd in FG% defense) and rebounding (-5.8 rpg; 331st in rebound margin) are hardly the characteristics needed to cope with such a hardscrabble opponent as the Raiders, who have dealt successfully with perimeter-oriented foes such as Richmond. WSU has adjusted well to the absence of top scorer F Cole Darling, as different leading scorers have emerged the past four games.

Jimmy Boyd

BYU -7

BYU is shooting 47.3% from the field at home while Mercer averages only 41.6% on the road. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are shooting between 45-47.5% and playing against a defense allowing 40% shooting or less in a game involving two teams committing 14.5 turnovers or less per game after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 72-33 (69%) over the last five seasons.

Mercer does have solid numbers defensively, but they have not faced an offense as potent as BYU’s. The Cougars average 80.8 points per game at home while committing only 12 turnovers per game. The Cougars are also an outstanding rebounding team averaging 40 boards per game at home compared to only 31 from Mercer. The Mercer offense has been horrible on the road this season averaging just 60.4 points per game. This matchup has all signs pointing to a blowout win for the BYU Cougars.

Rob Vinciletti

Providence -8½

The Friars have covered 7 of 9 this year in home wins, something we full expect them to do here. We will not be fooled by Robert Morris due to their big win over a Disinterested Kentucky team last week. In fact Robert Morris lost prior to MT. St. Mary's. Now they will take on a Big east schools knowing they are straight up vs this against Big East schools. Even in their win vs Kentucky they allowed 52% shooting from the fields. They have played a soft 271st ranked schedule this season, compared to 57th toughest in Providence. Providence was led by Bryce Cotton who scored 25 points on Wednesday, leading them to a 75-66 victory over Charlotte at Dunkin Donuts Center. Providence also received 16 points from Vincent Council and another 14 points from Kris Dunn. Vincent Council contributed 6 assists, while Kris Dunn cleaned the glass with 9 rebounds. Look for Providence to pull away from Robert Morris here tonight.

Jim Feist

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
Pick: Orlando Magic

The Heat had little trouble extending their win streak to 26 games on Sunday against a terrible Charlotte club. The Heat had to do it without star guard Dwayne Wade who sat out Sunday with a sore knee and could miss tonight's contest too. Don't thing the Heat will let down here, but still, covering double digits on the road will be a tough job without Wade. The Magic don't win many outright, but they can cover some spreads, evidenced by their 3-2 mark the last five games and 7-5 ATS mark the last 12. Plus the Magic will be well rested for this game after having two nights off to prepare. In addition, the Heat haven't covered well in Oralando, going 2-10-1 the last 13 trips to their instate rivals home. The Magic will give this all they have against their rival and while it isn't likely for a S/U win, they should cover the double digit line.

Dave Cokin

Santa Clara at Purdue
Pick: Purdue

Little more than a conference vs. conference opinion here. The B10 has established beyond question it's the strongest league this season. The WCC hasn't fared as well, to put it mildly. One also has to be impressed with the way the Boilermakers have rallied after looking like they were ready to pack it in awhile back. Purdue is now very live to win the CBI, and Santa Clara looks like a team they ought to be able to handle. Negatives here are that the number is not going to scare anyone away, and the home team is going to be a very popular side tonight. But that doesn't mean it won't get there. The other worry is Purdue's rotten free throw shooting, But they were 12/13 last game, so maybe it won't be a liability tonight. This is not a big opinion by any means, but I'll lean Purdue minus the points to getg through tonight.

Don Best Consensus

Memphis at Washington
Pick: Under

Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 overall. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +187 over BOSTON

OT Included. After eight consecutive losses to these Bruins, the Maple Leafs finally got that monkey off their backs with Saturday’s impressive 3-2 win over Boston. That type of win is not only satisfying, the momentum and confidence from it could certainly carry over here. Toronto has been competitive all season against every elite team they’ve played. The Leafs have picked up points in four straight games. Only the Penguins, Bolts and Canadiens from the East and Chicago and Anaheim from the West have scored more goals than Toronto’s 97. The Maple Leafs have a tough assignment here but this physically tough and talented offensive bunch have answered the bell plenty of times already this year and there’s no reason they can’t do it again.

Boston is laboring a bit right now. It has lost three of its last four games with only win over that span occurring against Ottawa. After that game, the Boston Herald reported the following, “It was far from the dominant performance the skidding Bruins would like to see.The B’s are a long way from peak form, but to their credit, on a night when the Ottawa Senators didn’t allow them a whole lot of time or space, they kept grinding, made the third period their best of the night, and eked out a sorely needed 2-1 victory”. Boston has scored two goals or less in four straight. They are 3-4 over its last seven with victories over Washington, Florida and Ottawa. With the exception of Chicago, every team has gone through a rough patch and it appears as though it is Boston’s turn. At this price, with the offense clicking and the entire team playing well, The Leafs offer up too much value to pass on.

Minnesota +101 over DALLAS

OT included. The Wild have won five straight and have outscored their opponents over that span by a count of 20-10. They figure to bring it all tonight in a game they want as bad as any other this year. Minnesota is just five points up on the eighth place Stars and could increase that margin with a win here. More than that, however, is they have now won in Dallas since March 21, 2003, a stretch of 16 games in which Minnesota is 0-16 with 11 losses in regulation and five in OT. Playing its best hockey in years, especially offensively, Minnesota is primed to end that awful streak tonight.

Dallas traded Brenden Morrow to Pittsburgh yesterday and it could have an effect in the dressing room and on the ice. Morrow has been a fixture in Dallas, playing his entire 13-year career in a Stars uniform. He’s a gritty, two-way player that leads by example and while it’s a strong, long term deal for Dallas, the immediate impact is likely to affect Dallas in a negative way. Regardless, this one is all about playing on one of the NHL’s hottest and most dangerous squads in a very good spot. Minnesota is a true contender this season that is peaking right now.

PHOENIX -½ +124 over Detroit

Regulation only. Sometimes the situation dictates the play and that’s precisely the case here. Detroit is coming off back-to-back wins in Anaheim but don’t be fooled by the 5-1 and 2-1 scores. Jimmy Howard stood on his head in both games while Victor Fasth was shaky for the Ducks in the first game of that pair. The Red Wings were outshot by a combined 68-44 in those two games and they won’t have Jimmy Howard to bail them out here. Jonas Gustavsson is the confirmed starter for the Red Wings in this one. Playing its third road game in four days and its sixth road game in its past seven, Detroit comes into this one feeling somewhat satisfied (and exhausted) winning back-to-back in Anaheim, who were previously 13-1 at home.

Phoenix is well-rested, having been off since Thursday’s 2-1 home loss against Vancouver. That was upon returning home from a four-game trip. The Coyotes have dropped five in a row and that can’t be sitting well with them. This is a hard-working and determined Phoenix club that hates to lose as much as anyone. The reports over the weekend out of Phoenix were that the team was loose during some spirited practices and they’re looking forward to tonight’s game. It’s been over a year since these two played one another and this is a game we’re sure the Coyotes will be sky high for. We’re not so sure the same can be said for Detroit.

Nelly

Orlando Magic + over Miami Heat

Orlando has been a dangerous heavy underdog with a 10-3 ATS mark on the season when dogged by 10 or more points. The Magic gave a full strength Heat team a tough battle in early March with Miami escaping at home with a 97-96 victory with a nearly 3:1 edge at the free throw line. Orlando dominated on the boards in that match-up and not much should change in that area tonight. Miami is getting every team's best shot and the Heat has needed major comebacks in three of the last four games before coasting against Charlotte yesterday. Dwyane Wade sat out yesterday with a sore knee and he could sit out again tonight. The Magic may be without Nikola Vucevic tonight but this is a team that is playing competitively despite still mostly losing games. The Magic hold a 6-4 ATS mark in the last 10 games and against winning teams the Magic are 18-15 ATS on the season. Orlando has been an awful ATS team at home but that is due to a simply awful 2-11 ATS mark as a favorite this season, as an underdog at home Orlando has delivered much more respectable results. Miami is only 7-13 ATS on the season when favored by double-digits and on the streak Miami is just 2-7 ATS in that role. After the close call a few weeks ago Miami will be ready for this in-state match-up but the Heat also have a much bigger game in Chicago next on the schedule and this is a third game in four days. Another slow start for Miami is likely as Orlando will give its best shot tonight.

Bryan Power

San Jose vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim

After being swept in a pair of home games vs the Detroit Red Wings, I look for the Ducks to bounce back Monday and start the week with a nice win over the division rival San Jose Sharks. It's something they've already done twice before (beat the Sharks at home, that is), most recently 5-3 last Monday.......

The division road has not been kind to San Jose the last two seasons as they have lost 12 of 16 games. They have lost three straight times here in Anaheim, including 2-1 back in February. The Sharks don't have a lot of momentum right now, thanks to a 2-5-2 stretch where one of the wins came in a shootout and four of the losses occurred in regulation. They were just shut out by Minnesota, 2-0 Saturday afternoon, a game where I nailed the Under. Since starting the season with seven straight victories, San Jose has really hit the skids, losing 17 of 23 games, going 6-11-6 overall. They are 2-13 SU when playing with revenge for a loss where the opponent scorerd four goals or more.

Anaheim, meanwhile, is enjoying a tremendous season even with the back to back losses to the Red Wings. Their power play has grown cold of late, but I expect that to turn around shortly. They have won seven of the last nine matchups with the Sharks overall and are also 7-2 the last nine times they've hosted San Jose. Before getting swept by Detroit, the team had won its previous 13 home games. They have not lost three straight games all season. Look for them to take advantage of a San Jose club playing its fifth straight on the road.

Will Rogers

Edmonton vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville

The Predators started to pick up some momentum following home victories over Calgary and Columbus as the offense has keyed things for a change. Monday night sees them hosting an Edmonton team that is never particularly strong on the road. That was never more evident than the Oilers last visit here to Nashville, which resulted in a 6-0 loss on March 8th. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a similar result tonight.

Here are my keys to the game.

1. Offense Picking Up For Nashville - The Predators have scored a total of 10 goals in their last two games, the most over any two-game stretch for the club this season. Having scored six times the last time they hosted Edmonton seems to signal that another strong offensive performance is in order tonight. All-time, the franchise is 16-4 when coming off back to back games where it scored five or more goals.

2. Revenge - The Oilers avenged that 6-0 defeat with a 3-2 win in Rexall Place last Sunday. The last two seasons have seen Nashville perform well in revenge situations, especially if the loss came on the road, going 19-8 in that situation.

3. X-Factor - Edmonton was shutout in its last game, a 3-0 loss to St. Louis on Saturday. They were also coming off a shutout loss the last time they visited Nashville, when they of course lost 6-0.