Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday March, 26

Hollywood Sports

Pittsburgh at Washington St
Prediction: Under

Pittsburgh (20-16) earned their berth into the CBI best-of-three finals after outlasting Butler in overtime by a 68-62 score. The Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Pac-10/12. Washington State (18-16) enters this game coming off their 72-55 win at Oregon State -- and the Cougars have played 4 straight games Under the Total coming after a straight-up win. Washington State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams from outside the Pac-12. The Cougars are 11-4 at home this season -- and the Panthers have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Pittsburgh is 4-8 on the road -- and the Cougars have played 6 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Expect these complementary team trends to continue in this one. Take the Under in Game One of the CBI Finals.

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks invade the Big Apple when they take on the Knicks in an Eastern Conference clash at the Garden Monday evening. Milwaukee enters off a 21-point loss as 3.5-point home chalk to Indiana Saturday night while New York checks in off a 22-point romp over Detroit the same night. That brings value to the contest and we'll take a bite of the apple with a Milwaukee squad that is 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS the last 13 games in this series, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on this floor. Grab the points. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Vegas Experts

Utah Jazz at New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets

The Nets are getting a gift tonight as the Jazz, who are a bad road team to begin with and playing for the fourth time in five nights, are off a loss in four overtimes to boot last night in Atlanta. The fact Utah is laying points in this matchup is an added bonus. The host has won and covered each of the previous four meetings between these teams. The Jazz are 2-11 ATS when playing a third road game in five nights.

Rob Vinciletti

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Miami Heat -3

The Heat come off a tough loss down in OKC Last night while the Pacers lit up the Bucks by 20 in Milwaukee. The Heat have scorched the Pacers of late winning 9 of the last 10 including 4-0 straight up and to the spread here in Indiana. In fact all teams coming into Indiana with no rest are 7-2 ats. The Heat have a nice 10-5-90 win here already this season and have won 17 of 24 vs winning teams. The Pacers have failed to cover 5 of the last 6 times after scoring 120 or more and 5 of the last 7 times off a dog win. Look for Miami to get the win and cover tonight. Take Miami.

Bryan Power

Los Angeles Kings @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

The Kings lost for the first time in seven games Saturday night, falling at home to the Boston Bruins 4-2. Now that that's happened, it's probably time for the team to start "giving a little back." They begin a four-game road trip Monday night in Vancouver where the Canucks await them with double revenge on their minds for a pair of losses around the New Year. The third time has indeed been the charm for Vancouver this season as they are a perfect 5-0 in double revenge spots. The Canucks are off BTB road wins over Dallas and Colorado coming in, which have enabled them to clinch the Northwest Division and likely the second seed in the conference. Los Angeles is currently in a three-way tie for eighth. But in addition to the double revenge angle, Vancouver won't be lacking for motivation here as they are only four points behind St. Louis in the chase for the President's Trophy. The Kings are 0-5-2 their last seven visits here.

Ben Burns

Dallas Stars @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames

The Flames should be extremely motivated to win this game. For starters, they're desperate to snap their 5-game skip. Additionally, they were just beaten by these same Stars, at Dallas, on Saturday. In fact, they're 0-3 in the season series, which means that they're playing with "triple revenge" here.

The Flames' recent skid has very likely cost them the playoffs. However, they are still mathematically alive and I certainly don't expect them to just roll over.

As Calgary captain Jarome Iginla noted: "We realize out of six games left, we most likely have to win them all. Our chances are slim. We most likely have to run the table. But we won’t give up."

While the Flames have certainly struggled recently, the Stars haven't been that great either. Prior to Saturday's 4-1 victory, they'd dropped three of four. Note that they're a money-burning 31-42 (-14.2) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game.

A closer look at Saturday's boxscore reveals that the Flames actually had a commanding 36-20 edge in shots on goal.

After that game, Calgary coach Brent Sutter acknowledged: "Their goaltender definitely was first star tonight."

Despite all their recent woes, the Flames have still earned at least a point in 11 of their last 13 here. They were beaten by the Stars here a few weeks ago but won both home meetings against Dallas last season. I expect their best effort tonight and feel they've got an excellent shot at bouncing back and earning the two points. Consider Calgary

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Los Angeles Kings @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

LA is 37-26-12 (16-12-8 on the road). Vancouver is 45-21-9 (21-10-4 at home). The last time these team's played against each other, LA won 3-2 in Vancouver on January 17th, 2012.

The Kings lost 4-2 to Boston on Saturday. They had 15-shots in the first period, but didn't record another one until the 11:26 mark of the second. “We had a lot of opportunities, but you have to finish the job when you have them against a team like that,” Kings coach Darryl Sutter said. The loss snapped a six-game win streak.

The Canucks have won two straight including a 3-2 overtime victory at Colorado on Saturday. Chris Higgins had two-goals, including the OT marker. Goaltender Roberto Luongo looked sharp in stopping 38-shots. With the win, the Canucks clinched the division. “It’s just one step,” said Luongo. “We have lots of goals ahead of us that we want to accomplish. … Tonight was a good start.”

Vancouver is looking to earn a second straight Presidents' Trophy; “We have our sights set on catching St. Louis,” Higgins said. “It should be fun down the stretch trying to catch them.”

This is the first game of a four game road trip for the Kings, and the first game of a five game home stand for the Canucks.

King's goaltender Jonathan Quick owns a 1.88 GAA in his last 11 starts vs. Vancouver, but is 4-6-1 in that span. Luongo is 3-1-1 with a 1.97 GAA in his last five vs. LA.

Note that Vancouver is 9-2 (+7 units) this year when "revenging" a home loss vs. an opponent.

Lay this reasonable price!

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks
Pick: New York Knicks

The Knicks have been bearing down on defense ever since Mike Woodson took over on the sidelines. Milwaukee wants to run and gun and the Bucks could struggle at a slower pace. I'll spot the number with the Knicks.

Jim Feist

Boston vs Charlotte
Pick: Under

I always take a hard look when the Celtics play the second of a back-to-back spot. For an aging team, these situations tend to put strain on the club. We just need to look at this season, where the Celtics are 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road this season when playing the second of a back to back spot. Plus, the total has gone UNDER eight times in those nine games. The Celtics average just 81.1 ppg in this spot and they are playing a Bobcats team that is not good. Boston has the third best defense in the NBA (90.8 ppg). We have to fade a low total today, but I'm going to go UNDER as I look for Boston to slow this tempo down and play good defense.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW JERSEY -2 over Utah

It's difficult to remember right now but there was a time last season when the Jazz were 14 games above.500. With the departures of Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams marking a shift in direction, they had the biggest first- to second-half decline in NBA history, going from 27-14 at the break to 12-29 afterward. Long term, they’ve set themselves up to be the next Oklahoma City as they have some young talent and a slew of high draft picks upcoming. We’re seeing the sign of things to come. The Jazz had won six straight before yesterday’s loss in Atlanta and that’s our focus here. That loss occurred after four OT periods. The Jazz will now play their third game in four days and fourth game in five days. All five starters played 50 minutes or more yesterday. The Nets are getting healthier and should be more than ready and jacked up to play Deron Williams’ former club. When they played for the first time this year, the Nets lost by 13 in Salt Lake. Different situation her heavily favors the host against a Jazz team that has seven road wins in 24 games and that is in a hugely unfavorable scheduling spot.. Play: New Jersey -2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Sacramento +6½/+239 over HOUSTON

This one has track meet written all over it and when two teams that pay little attention to defense get together, anything can happen. There is no crystal ball that can predict which shooters will be hot and which will not and therefore we turn to situational handicapping. The Rockets are coming off an OT loss against Dallas. They play the Mavericks again tomorrow in Dallas. If ever there was a game to overlook, it could be this sandwich situation. The Kings are in a better spot. They had won three in a row before back-to-back losses by one and three points respectively. Conceivably, Sacramento is a couple of buckets away from a five- game winning streak. The Kings are a dangerous underdog because of their great offense and outstanding shooters. This one sets up nicely and a straight up win would not surprise. Play: Sacramento +6½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1). Play: Sacramento +239 (Risking 1 unit).

Los Angeles +131 over VANCOUVER

The Canucks return home from a four-game trip and they do it without the services of Daniel Sedin. They scored six goals in those four games and one of those goals was scored in OT. It’s suddenly going to be a lot more difficult for the Canucks to come back from a goal or two down without their best goal producer and arguably their best player. The Kings’ playoff push continues. They had won six straight before losing to the Bruins on Saturday night in a highly entertaining affair. Prior to that loss, the Kings beat St. Louis, Nashville and San Jose, Anaheim, Detroit and Chicago. One loss is certainly not going to deter us from backing this ascending visitor. The Kings are playing exceptional hockey and they’re too live a pooch to ignore right now. Play: Los Angeles +131 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +141 over SAN JOSE

Without question, the biggest game of the year for both clubs. Colorado, San Jose and L.A. are all tied for eighth spot in the West, one point behind seventh place Phoenix. The winner will leapfrog two teams in what figures to be a playoff style affair. Despite losing its last two, Colorado had 40 shots on net against both Phoenix and Vancouver. They lost both games by a goal, the latter in OT. Prior to that, the Avalanche had won five of six with only loss coming at New Jersey by a 1-0 count. With a couple of bounces, the Avs could be on an eight game winning streak. The Sharks have won two important games in a row over Boston and Phoenix. Still, this is a team that is not to be trusted laying significant juice when so much is on the line. The Sharkies certainly have the talent to make a run should they get into the playoffs but in situations like this one, they’ve been a great fade and therefore we’ll step in. Play: Colorado +141 (Risking 2 units).

Dallas +108 over CALGARY

The Flames went into Dallas this past Saturday afternoon and lost 4-1. While the result was satisfying for the Stars, the effort was anything but. Dallas was soundly outplayed on its home ice. They were extremely fortunate to win that game, as Calgary was all over them in the second and third periods and only the goaltending of Kari Lehtonen prevented Dallas from losing a big game. You can expect a much better effort here from this guest. A frustrated Flames team has to be even more frustrated after losing their fifth straight and scoring one lousy goal for the fourth time in those five losses. In its previous game, last Thursday against a Minnesota club short a couple of d-men when both Jared Spurgeon and Marco Scandella were injured in the second period, the Flames blew a 2-0 lead and lost in OT. Calgary can’t find the back of the net right now. Even in the shootouts, the Flames are a mental mess having popped just one goal in their last 18 attempts. A frustrated team returning home from a three-game trip, in a horrible scoring drought is a good fade. Play: Dallas +108 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors +5.5

The Raptors are no doubt having a tough season as they are 17 games under .500 including seven games under .500 at home. They have been unable to defeat any of the elite teams in the NBA, going 0-13 against the top ten and 3-18 against the top 16 but we are not looking for the win here as a cover is our concern. Despite the bad straight up records, the Raptors have the third best ATS record in the league and their 12 more ATS wins than straight up wins is the best in the NBA. Toronto had lost three straight games prior to its win over the Knicks and it gave the Bulls everything they could handle in a one-point overtime loss on Saturday. These types of losses have the norm as the Raptors have lost 17 games since February 5th with 13 of those defeats coming by seven points or fewer. The Raptors don't buckle either as they have been solid after a loss, going 19-12-1 ATS. They will be looking for some double-revenge after dropping the first two meetings this season. Orlando got embarrassed at home against Chicago last week and it responded with wins in its last two games, easily defeating the Suns and Cavaliers at home. The Magic are a solid 13-10 on the road but they have lost three of their last four games on the highway and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road favorites. Coming off a double-digit win has not been favorable going forward as they are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory by 10 or more points. The Raptors meanwhile are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record while going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs. Orlando has covered just once in is last nine road games against teams with a losing home record so it tends to step down to the level of its competition and clearly, the Raptors have done the opposite. Look for the Raptors to once again play another strong game at home against a quality opponent.

Steve Janus

Washington Wizards +1.5

This is a great spot to jump on the Wizards. Washington comes in on a three-game losing streak, but they have competed at a high level in each of those games. They have lost their last two home games by a combined 4-points, against a couple of solid teams in Atlanta and Indiana.

This is the Wizards third game in the last three days, which is a big reason why Washington is getting points. However, that won't keep me from laying a small bet here. Detroit has lost five in a row, and each of their last two have been decided by 15-plus. Detroit is also in the middle of a tough stretch. This is the Pistons third road game in the last six days.

The Wizards have already proven they have what it takes to beat Detroit. Washington crushed the Pistons 98-77 in Detroit back on Feb. 12. Since that game the Wizards have acquired Nene in a trade, which in my opinion has made them a much better team.

Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Lenny Del Genio

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

These are two of the hottest teams to bet on right now in the Eastern Conference, and for good reason. Both are competing for the eighth and final playoff spot, a race the Knicks currently lead by 1.5 games. Milwaukee has covered 9 of its last 11 while New York has covered six of seven. But the real key here is the number (currently around six points) and the fact that the Bucks are 9-0 ATS L9 games vs. the Knicks, including 5-0 ATS here in MSG. They beat NY up in the Bradley Center earlier this month 119-114 as a one-point dog. Take Milwaukee.

Jack Jones

New Jersey Nets -1.5

This is simply a very tough spot for the Utah Jazz tonight. Utah has been playing very well of late, but it's hard to see them having much left in the tank after a brutal stretch over the last few days. Playing with a day off in between games, the Nets will be ready to go.

Utah will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight. They played the first four-overtime game in the NBA since 1997 last night in a 133-139 loss to the Atlanta Hawks. This team is likely to come out very sluggish tonight as they are simply running on fumes.

The Jazz are 2-11 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet New Jersey Monday.