Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 28,2011

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

When the Bulls host the Sixers in the Windy City Tuesday evening Chicago will be looking to atone for a six-point loss they suffered in Philadelphia back in January in this series. That sets the table for tonight's contest as the Bulls are 9-3 SU and ATS this season when playing with same season loss revenge, including 7-1 SU and ATS at home. Noting the last time the Sixers visited Chicago it was a 45-point Bull-ride, we'll look for more that result as we stay at home with the Bulls here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Chicago.

Hollywood Sports

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
Prediction: Orlando Magic

The Magic (47-26) are quietly raising their level of play just in time for the playoffs. Their 95-85 win over the Nets on Friday was their fifth win in a row. Over this span, they are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 PPG based on the strength of an improving defense that has limited their opponents to just 88.2 PPG on low 40.8% shooting from the field. Now they will travel to Madison Square Garden to face a reeling Knicks team (35-38) that has lost six games in a row as well as nine of their last ten games (while only covering the spread a mere one time over that stretch). Defense is the biggest problem for this club. Over their last five games, New York is allowing their opponents to score 104.6 PPG on 47.2% shooting. They are being outscored by 8.2 PPG over this stretch. Their latest setback was a 114-106 loss at Charlotte on Saturday and they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games coming off a loss. They also have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games coming off a game where they allowed at least 100 points. The Knicks are defending their home court well as they have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Madison Square Garden. And they are getting overwhelmed against their fellow Eastern Conference opponents as they have failed to cover the spread in their last 8 contests against foes from their conference. The last time these two teams faced each other was just last Wednesday where the Magic defeated the Knicks on their home court by a 111-99 margin. Expect a similar result again on Monday. Lay the points with Orlando.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers

The Boston Celtics have gone Under in ten straight games entering Monday's visit to Indiana and considering the Pacers are 27-13 Under this season playing with revenge, including 15-5 for a double digit loss, nothing is about to change tonight. The last three meetings between these teams have all gone Under and Boston is 32-15 Under the last three seasons when laying six points or less on the road.

Play on: Under

Rocketman Sports

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks
Play: Orlando Magic -1

Orlando has won 5 in a row while New York has lost 6 in a row heading into tonight's contest. Orlando is 9-1 SU overall vs New York the past 3 years. Knicks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Knicks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Knicks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. We'll recommend a small play on Orlando tonight!

DAVID CHAN

Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

I bet value where I see it and believe the Chicago Blackhawks will hand the under-manned Detroit Red Wings a loss tonight.

Detroit will most likely sit two of its top goal scorers in Johan Franzen and Pavel Datsyuk again; it will also be without the services of top goaltender Jimmy Howard, meaning backup Joey MacDonald will get the nod tonight.

While the Wings are assured of a playoff spot, the defending champs still have some work to do before the end of the season before they'll be admitted to the post-season.

Chicago begins an important three game trip in eighth place in the West; it's one point ahead of Calgary and two in front of Dallas:

“We’ve got some big games, we’ve obviously got three on the road here,” coach Joel Quenneville said. “We’re going into a tough building in Detroit. We’ve got them three times, which are all huge games. We know the importance of it.”

Fantastic line value here on a highly motivated team that's fighting for a playoff spot vs. a team that's down key personnel; consider a second look at the CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS tonight!

BIG AL

Portland @ San Antonio
PICK: Portland +4.5

The Spurs have had good fortune most of this season, but it's all turned against them in March. First, Tim Duncan suffered a sprained ankle, and he's missed the past 3 games (all losses). Then, last night, Manu Ginobili collided with Marc Gasol, and sustained a thigh contusion. He's questionable to play tonight, but given that he couldn't put any pressure on it yesterday, it's a pretty good bet that his performance will be affected, even if he does suit up. The problem with the Spurs this season is that they're not big up front, and that lack of size rears its ugly head vs. teams with strong frontline players. Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge already torched San Antone earlier this year for 40 points, and without Duncan in the lineup, there's always the chance Aldridge will have another big night. Duncan's absence hurts the Spurs in so many ways. He's a great pick-and-roll partner for Tony Parker, and he's a great passer out of the post to spot-up three-point shooters like Matt Bonner and Gary Neal. So, without Duncan (and also, perhaps, Ginobili), the Spurs offense becomes much easier to guard, and their defense ends up having a gaping hole in the paint. The Spurs, certainly, will have revenge on their minds for their 98-96 loss at the Rose Garden on Friday, but I don't think they should be laying 4.5 points if Ginobili might be negatively impacted by his injury (or even sidelined). Take the points.

Tom Freese

Oregon vs. Creighton
Play: Creighton -4

Oregon is 19-17 straight up this year. This is not the best Oregon team in many years. The Ducks are 2-8 ATS their last 10 road games following 3 or more straight home games. Creighton is 22-14 straight up this year. The Blue Jays are 7-0 ATS their last 7 games as favorites. The Blue Jays are 6-0 ATS their last home games. The Blue Jays are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points. The Blue Jays are 12-5 ATS on Monday and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Anaheim -237

I almost never recommend a "fav" of this size, but sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and I expect the Ducks to bury the Avalanche tonight:

The Avs are 28-38-7-1 this year, including just 13-20-3-1 away from friendly confines; they lost 4-1 at Los Angeles on Saturday.

Note that Colorado is 14-30 (-19 units) when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year.

On the other side of the rink: The Ducks are 42-28-3-2 this year, including 23-12-1-1 in front of the home town crowd; they are coming off a 2-1 victory over the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Note that Anaheim is 19-12 (+6.9 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Bottom line: With the win over Chicago, Anaheim moved into seventh place in the West; its top line has been particularly effective of late.

Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan have combined for 19-points and 34 assists in their last 13 games; "We're playing together and playing as a line, and that's huge," said Perry. "Early on in the season we were here, we were there and just missing. Now finally we've got that chemistry and we're rolling with it."

"If you look at the size of the players, the skill set of the players and the compete level of the players that make up that line, we think it's pretty dynamic," coach Randy Carlyle said. "And they proved again (Saturday) that they're quite capable of taking our hockey club and being leaders and leading our team."

Jonas Hiller could be back between the pipes tonight; Hiller is 6-2-0 with a 2.00 GAA vs. the Av's.

After tonight's game, the Ducks play their final six vs. playoff contenders; this team will not be taking this game lightly.

The Av's have just 28 goals while allowing twice that many in a 2-11-1 overall stretch.

All signs point to a home blowout!

EZWINNERS

Orlando Magic -1.5

The Knicks are reeling right now having lost six straight games and nine out of their last ten. This is not a good spot to break their losing streak as Orlando comes into MSG having won five straight games and the Magic have owned this series with the Knicks. Orlando has won six straight meetings between these teams and nine out of the last ten. It had looked as if the Knicks would be comfortably in the Eastern Conference playoffs this season, but it appears that this team is driving full steam ahead for the lottery. Knicks head coach Mike D'Antoni has made lineup changes in hopes of sparking the struggling New York offense, but nothing seems to be clicking right now. Lay the points.

JIM FEIST

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS / CHICAGO BULLS
TAKE: CHICAGO BULLS

The Chicago Bulls are pulling away for the best record in the eastern conference. They now lead the Celtics by two-games and the Heat by 2 1/2 games. This first place surge by the Bulls has been due to winning nine of their last 10 games and 12 of 13. The Philadelphia 76ers have a solid hold on 6th place in the east and right now look to have a first round matchup with the Miami Heat. While the club still hasn't clinched a playoff berth, that could be accomplished today with a win over the Bulls. However, they won't get a Bulls team that is looking to cruise as the Bulls want that best record in the east. The Sixers last two trips to Chicago have been something the club would like to forget. This season the Sixers lost in Chicago by 45 points and last year by 32 points. Derrick Rose continues to make a case for league MVP, having scored 30 or more points in three of his last five games. This is a stingy Bulls defense, allowing just 87.1 ppg during their home winning streak and just 88 ppg in their last four games against Philadelphia. Don't look for the Bulls to coast here, they will continue to pressure as they push to be the Best of the East.

Lenny Del Genio

Oregon at Creighton
Prediction: Under

Neither of these teams are known for their sharpshooting, despite the fact that the Blue Jays have scored 82 or more points in every CBI game thus far. Tremendous value here with the O/U line moving the "wrong way." Take Under.

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers

The Celtics have failed to cover eight of the last nine times they've played in the second night of back to backs and before you go mocking the Pacers, consider that three of those ATS losses were of the outright variety to the likes of New Jersey, Charlotte and Washington, a real "rogue's gallery" if there ever was one. Boston is just 4-9 ATS its last 13 games overall. Take Indiana.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on New York Knicks +1.5

Extremely motivated by 6 straight defeats overall and 3 prior losses to the Magic this season, expect the Knicks to show up at home this evening. Also, New York will definitely benefit from an injury to Jameer Nelson, which is expected to keep him out of this contest. He has been a major part of Orlando's success. If you've watched many Magic games you know that Gilbert Arenas and Chris Duhon haven't provided the team with the nearly the same level of play. Despite New York's recent struggles, it can't be ignored that the Knicks are 24-10-2 ATS in their last 36 games as an underdog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It also can't be ignored that the Magic are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Without Nelson, the Magic will have their work cut out for themselves tonight. Take the Knicks.

Matt Fargo

Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -3

The Spurs are coming off a bad roadtrip where they went 0-3 but a return home should get them back on track. San Antonio is 33-3 at home this season and currently it is four games ahead of the Lakers in the Western Conference standings with nine games left including a game at Los Angeles in the second to last game of the season. The Lakers are the hottest team in the NBA right now with a 15-1 record since the All-Star break so the Spurs lead is far from safe at this point so they need to snap out of it. Portland is also coming off a loss last night in Oklahoma City by nine points which was its fourth straight loss on the road following its upset win at Miami three weeks ago which extended its road winning streak to seven games. This recent run has dropped the Blazers to 16-21 on the road this season which certainly isn't horrible but while going 10-6 as a road favorite, the Blazers are just 6-14 as a road underdog including a 17-point loss against the Spurs in the first meeting in San Antonio. The Spurs are favored by three points less tonight than in that most recent home meeting and it is due to injuries. While Tim Duncan is out until next month, the Spurs lost Manu Ginobili last night with a quad contusion and his status for tonight is up in the air but he is unlikely to play. Obviously that hurts but the Blazers also took a hit last night as Brandon Roy hurt his back against the Thunder and is doubtful as well. Playing at home, the Spurs have the players which can step up. San Antonio is playing with no rest and while that has been a problem in the past, this season it has been solid, going 10-4 both straight up and against the number in the second game of a back-to-back set. Also, the Spurs are 10-3 following a loss this season and while two of those have come in the last two games, as mentioned, heading home is a big edge. The Blazers meanwhile are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss and 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog of fewer than five points. 3* San Antonio Spurs

Wunderdog Sports

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +10

The Chicago Bulls have emerged as the unlikely team to beat in the NBA East. All the talk centered on Miami assembling their trio of stars and Boston and Orlando with a challenge. Chicago has emerged to be above them all in the standings. Philadelphia opened the season at 3-13 and a playoff berth seemed improbable at best, but this team has come together to move over the .500 mark and will be in the playoffs. The Sixers have become a tough out, and although they do lose some games, not many teams are blowing them out. The Sixers, since December 29, some three months ago, have lost just a total of four games by more than 10 points. There is certainly value on them in this spot. Play on Philadelphia and the points.