SPORTS ADVISORS
L.A. Lakers (59-19, 31-39-3 ATS) at New Orleans (34-40, 33-40-1 ATS)
The Lakers continue their five-game road trip with a stop in the Big Easy to take on a struggling New Orleans squad that has officially been eliminated from the playoffs.
Los Angeles has won eight of its last nine games (4-5 ATS), including two of three (SU and ATS) on the current trip. On Saturday, the Lakers went to Houston and scored a 109-101 win as a six-point favorite, a night after getting clobbered in Oklahoma City 91-75 as a one-point chalk. Pau Gasol led the charge Saturday with 30 points, and Kobe Bryant just missed a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.
The Hornets have dropped eight of 10 overall (3-7 ATS) and 12 of the last 15 (3-11-1 ATS), and with Saturday’s 112-101 loss to the Blazers as s 3½-point home ‘dog, they were officially ousted from playoff contention. New Orleans’ defense was porous Saturday, allowing Portland to shoot 57.3 percent from the field, and the Hornets were outrebounded 35-25.
The Lakers have won three straight (1-2 ATS) against the Hornets and six of the last seven (3-4 ATS). Both meetings this season have been in Los Angeles, but the Lakers have won and cashed in four of their last five trips to New Orleans dating back to 2008, as the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series clashes. Additionally, the ‘dog has covered in 13 of the last 16 head-to-head matchups.
Los Angeles has cashed in five of seven roadies, but it is otherwise on ATS slides of 0-6 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a day off, 1-7-1 on Mondays and 1-5 against losing teams. The Hornets have cashed in 25 of 34 at home against teams with winning road marks, but they carry a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 3-11-1 overall, 1-6 at home, 3-10-1 against Western Conference teams, 1-8-1 after a day off, 3-8 after a straight-up loss and 2-8-1 against winning teams.
When it comes to the total, the Lakers are on several “under’ streaks, including 5-1 overall, 12-4 on the road, 5-0 after a straight-up win, 8-3 after a day off, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against Western Conference teams. New Orleans has topped the posted total in five of seven at home, five straight on Monday, four of five after a non-cover and five of seven against Western Conference squads.
In this rivalry, the over has cashed in 15 of the last 22 meetings overall, but in New Orleans, the under has been the play each of the last four clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Denver (48-26, 31-37-6 ATS) at Dallas (48-25, 30-42-1 ATS)
The struggling Nuggets, having dropped four of their last five, wrap up a five-game road trip at the American Airlines Center in a key Western Conference showdown with the Mavericks.
Denver fell to 1-3 (0-3-1 ATS) on its trip with Sunday’s 103-97 loss in Orlando, managing a push as a six-point underdog. The Nuggets had dropped seven straight at the betting window before Sunday, and they are just 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS) in their last five on the highway. For the season, they’re 18-20 on the road, but just 14-19-5 ATS.
The Mavericks have alternated wins and losses in their last four (2-2 ATS), scoring a 111-90 win at Golden State on Saturday, easily cashing as three-point road favorites. Rookie Rodrique Beaubois had the game of his career on Saturday, pouring in 40 points and grabbing eight rebounds, both easily career highs, as Dallas shot 48.4 percent from the floor.
Denver is 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 clashes with Dallas, including a 127-91 blowout back on Feb. 9 in Colorado, easily cashing as a seven-point favorite. However, prior to that, Dallas went to the Mile High City on Dec. 27 and scored the 104-96 victory as a 5½-point underdog. The Nuggets are still 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings overall, including six consecutive spread-covers in Texas.
The Nuggets carry ATS slides of 0-7-2 overall, 0-4-2 on the road, 0-3-2 on the road against teams with winning home records, 1-6-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 1-6 on Monday, but they’re brings 19-8 ATS in their last 27 against Southwest Division teams and 7-1-4 in their last 12 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points. Dallas is on a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 2-6 overall, 4-26-1 at home, 8-24-1 as a favorite, 16-34-1 as a home favorite, 5-20-1 at home against teams with a losing road record and 7-18-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Nuggets, the under is on several runs, including 7-1 overall, 36-16 as underdogs, 8-3 on the road, 21-9 as road ‘dogs and 16-5 as a road ‘dog of between five and 10½ points. The Mavericks are on “over” streaks of 7-3 after a day off, 13-6 after a straight-up win, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against Northwest division foes.
In this series, the under has been the play in 13 of the last 19 played in Texas, but the over has cashed in five of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL
Saint Louis (23-11, 17-11-1 ATS) at VCU (25-9, 17-14-1 ATS)
This best-of-three championship series kicks off at the Siegel Center in Richmond, Va., when St. Louis arrives to take on VCU for Game 1.
Both teams have rattled off three straight wins to get to the title game, with the Billikens staying home for the trio of victories, beating Indiana State (63-54), surviving in overtime against Wisconsin-Green Bay (68-62) and then topping Princeton on Wednesday 69-59 as a four-point favorite. Kwamain Mitchell had 21 points and five assists against Princeton while teammate Willie Reed had 20 points and 10 boards.
St. Louis finished fourth in the Atlantic-10, getting knocked out of the conference tourney by Rhode Island. Losing three of their final five games cost the Billikens’ any chance of a berth in either the Big Dance and NIT.
The Rams tied for fifth in the Colonial Athletic Association, falling to regular-season champ Old Dominion 73-69 in the conference title game as two-point underdogs. VCU traveled to face George Washington in the opening round of this tourney, winning 79-73 as a 2½-point favorite and have followed with home victories over Charleston a week ago (93-86 as a 12½-point chalk) and Boston University on Wednesday (88-75 as an 11½-point chalk).
The Billikens are on several positive ATS streaks, including 10-3 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog, 7-3 after a straight-up win and 9-4 after a spread-cover. The Rams have also been strong at the betting window lately, currently on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 7-2-1 as a home favorite, 6-2 against winning teams and 11-5 against Atlantic-10 teams.
St. Louis has stayed below the posted total in five of seven after a spread-cover, while VCU is on “under” runs of 5-2 at home, 7-3 on Mondays, 5-2 as a home chalk and 20-9 at home against teams with losing road records. However the Rams have topped the total in five straight overall and five of six non-conference games.
Game 2 of this series is scheduled for Wednesday in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VCU
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at New Orleans
The Hornets look to take advantage of a Lakers team that is coming off a 109-101 win at Houston and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS win. New Orleans is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+6)
Game 731-732: Toronto at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 111.251; Charlotte 123.399
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 12; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 8; 196
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-8); Under
Game 733-734: San Antonio at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.502; New Jersey 113.251
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 11 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-8); Over
Game 735-736: LA Lakers at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.341; New Orleans 117.149
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+6); Under
Game 737-738: Denver at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.976; Dallas 121.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 3 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 211
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+5 1/2); Over
Game 739-740: New York at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: New York 116.399; Utah 127.131
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 10 1/2; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 11 1/2; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+11 1/2); Over
NCAAB
St. Louis at VCU
The Billikens look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a road underdog. St. Louis is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has VCU favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+9 1/2)
Game 741-742: St. Louis at VCU
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 62.208; VCU 68.221
Dunkel Line: VCU by 6
Vegas Line: VCU by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+9 1/2)
NHL
Nashville at Florida
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Nashville team that is 1-4-1 in its last 6 meetings in Florida. Florida is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105)
Game 51-52: Buffalo at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.939; Boston 13.208
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Carolina at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.154; Atlanta 10.599
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+110); Over
Game 55-56: Nashville at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.683; Florida 12.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under
Game 57-58: Los Angeles at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.471; Minnesota 11.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 59-60: Dallas at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.463; Anaheim 12.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Cajun Sports
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Bobcats
Selection: Charlotte Bobcats -8
The Bobcats will play host to the Raptors on Monday night with tipoff set for 7:05PM EST. Charlotte has been money in the bank cashing the last five in this series including two this season. The Bobcats defense has been a key factor for them all season in fact they lead the league in points allowed with 93.5 points per game. Toronto struggles against teams with winning records going 25-44 ATS the last 2 seasons and their performance worsens during the second half of the year where their record against winning clubs is only 8-18 ATS the last two seasons. Charlotte enjoys success against teams with poor defenses posting a record of 12-4 ATS versus teams allowing 103 or more points per game this season and Toronto fits the bill of another Bobcats victim. Toronto is 5-13 ATS their last 18 games overall and we expect that negative number to increase tonight against the Charlotte Bobcats. Lay the points with the host as they cash their sixth straight ATS victory in this series.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Charlotte Bobcats 106 Toronto 90
Nick Parsons
New York Knicks at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Over
The Knicks have given up 117.3 ppg. over their last three contests; New York was destroyed 132-96 by the Suns on Friday.
That's bad new for Knicks fans tonight as Utah has even averaging 115 points over its last six in front of the home town faithful.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "over" the number in eight of New York's last twelve on the road.
On the other side of the court: The Jazz are rolling right now; a victory tonight, coupled with a Nuggets loss in Dallas, and they'll take sole possession of the Northwest division's No. 1 spot.
They are coming off a dominating 103-87 beatdown of the lowly Wizards in the nation's capital.
Carlos Boozer is leading the way; 22 points and 10 boards vs. Washington.
Utah has seen the total go "over" the number in 21 of 36 home games.
Bottom line: Utah will have no problem continuing to put points on the board against this porous Knicks defense; consider a wager on the OVER.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spurs @ New Jersey
PICK: New Jersey +8
Last night, we cashed a big High Roller selection on the Spurs over Boston (we're now 5-0 our last 5 High Rollers), but the Spurs were in one of their best roles on Sunday (they were on the road, playing with revenge); tonight, they're in one of their worst. And that is to play AGAINST San Antonio if it is playing without rest, and is PK or Favored off back-to-back wins. Since 2005, the Spurs have been very poor in this situation. With San Antone off back-to-back BIG wins over Cleveland and Boston, look for the Spurs to stumble a bit vs. the league's worst team, New Jersey. And, of course, it certainly wouldn't hurt if Gregg Popovich decided later in the day to rest Timmy Duncan (this is one of only a few "back-to-backs" left on San Antonio's schedule, which Coach Pop likes to utilize to rest Timmy). That would make our pointspread, here, look even more attractive. So, this is also a play where it makes sense to get down earlier, rather than later.
David Chan
Denver @ Dallas
Pick: Denver +5.5
While Denver is a shaky 14-19-1 ATS on the road (before Sunday’s tilt in Orlando) we need to jump on the overnight line here because the Mavs are a brutal 8-27-1 ATS at home this season. 25-11 SU at home, the Mavs have nevertheless fallen SU to teams as diverse as New York, Minnesota, Golden State, and Washington. Actually, while those cities are geographically diverse, their basketball clubs are all terrible.
Denver is a better team, and for the Mavs to be spotting the Nuggets any more than the typical 3.5 points for home court is just wrong. It should be more like 2.5 points—or maybe less: Denver was favored by 7 when these teams met in the Mile High city in February. That makes this game more like pick’em. Denver has to play Suinday night so that’s worth a point or maybe two… but 5.5? Too much.
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK KNICKS / UTAH JAZZ
TAKE: UTAH JAZZ
The Knicks are riding out the remainder of the season as they sit in 11th place in the east, a good nine-games out of the last playoff spot. The Knicks are still trying at home before the fans, evidenced by their 109-104 win against the Nuggets. Then they take to the road as they did last time out and get pummeled by the Suns, 132-96. Now they have to travel to Utah to face the Jazz. Two big obstacles here for the Knicks. First, they have to play in that high altitude of Salt Lake. And, they are face a very good Jazz club that still is in a dogfight in the west. Right now, just 1 1/2 games separates 2nd place in the west from fifth place in the west. So you can expect Utah to be primed to win this type of contest against a team they should handle quite easily. Lay the points here on Monday as the Jazz should have little trouble covering the spread.
EZWINNERS
New York Knicks +11.5
The Knicks are coming off of a blow out loss to the Phoenix Suns in their last game, but they are 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 games after a double digit loss. The Jazz are one of the best home teams in the league, but the Knicks have been a money maker against Utah in the past. The Knicks are an incredible 10-1 against the spread in the last eleven meetings with the Jazz. The Knicks are still playing hard as Bill Walker, Toney Douglas and Danilo Gallinari are working hard on their games and David Lee continues to be solid. New York should hang around all game and back door cover this big number at the very worst. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Raptor vs. Bobcats
The Charlotte Bobcats are allowing just (93.5) points per game on defense and the Raptors have dropped (5) straight ATS against the Bobcats who are (6-1) ATS at home of late. Toronto comes into this game without any rest and the Raptors are (8-21-1) ATS when un-rested and (4-10) ATS versus the NBA's Southeast Division. Big Game James Patrick's NBA Monday selection is Charlotte Bobcats.
Nelly
Charlotte - over Toronto
Charlotte has been playing well enough that this line feels justified even though the Bobcats have a reputation for playing close games even against weak opponents. Charlotte has been a heavy favorite each of the last three games and delivered narrow covers each time and this is a team playing extremely well seeking its first playoff appearance, with wins in ten of the last 13 games. Charlotte has won seven straight home games with only one narrow missed cover in that span and the edge on defense in this game should be tremendous. The Raptors allow nearly 109 points per game on the road and Toronto is 12-24 S/U on the road this season, also featuring losing ATS numbers. Toronto beat Charlotte in the last meeting but in the last meeting in Charlotte the Bobcats won by 35, and in the home meeting last spring Charlotte won by 30. In the last five games the Bobcats are allowing only 89 points per game and Toronto should have a difficult time keeping pace in this match-up.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs are the worst ATS team in the league at home with an 8-27 ATS record. This includes 7-27 when favored. They are 1-8 ATS when laying 3.5 to 6 points. The fact that they are 19-39 ATS when coming off a road win doesn't help either. Denver is 8-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are 12-2 ATS the last 14 meetings with the Mavs, including 6-0 ATS here in Dallas.
Play on: Denver
Vernon Croy
Nashville Predators vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Nashville Predators -122
This pick falls into one of my top NHL systems and the Predators are the better overall team here tonight. The Predators are 5-0 in their last 5 games against a Southeast opponent and they are 6-1 in their last 7 road games when playing a team that has a losing record at home. Nashville is 20-8 in their last 28 games when favored on the road and they have won 7 of their last 9 games. The Panthers are just 5-25 in their last 30 games as an underdog and they are just 9-26 in their last 35 home games when playing against a team that has a winning record on the road. Take Nashville with great value tonight.
Matt Fargo
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets +8
We won an ugly one yesterday with Minnesota and we will win another ugly one today with New Jersey. I assumed with all of the previous big games, San Antonio would have a tough time last night but it was just the opposite and that high will turn into a low and for pretty obvious reasons. The Spurs are coming off a big win last night in Boston which was their second straight over a top quality opponent, Cleveland being the first, and now they are expected to get up again and win by a large number on the road against the worst team in the NBA. I don’t see it happening. It has been an up and down season for the Spurs and after putting together an 8-1 run, it has gone 4-3 over its last seven games with six of these coming against teams that will be in the playoffs and four of those are the best, Boston, Los Angeles, Cleveland and Orlando. A 4-3 mark is good against this competition but with each of these being big games, it can be mentally taxing. That spells huge letdown tonight and even worse is the fact that it has Houston, Orlando and the Lakers again upcoming in the next three games. New Jersey had its two-game winning streak snapped at Chicago on Saturday and we cashed a very easy ticket with that one. It is pretty evident that the season has been a tough one for New Jersey but it has been playing much more competitive of late as proven by its 8-5 ATS record over its last 13 games. The Nets are not expected to win these games and that puts line value on our side as well as putting the public on the other side. New Jersey falls into an effective situation here as well. Play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a road underdog while playing eight or more games in 14 days. This situation is 127-82 ATS (60.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Making this even stronger is the fact that the Spurs are 0-7 ATS this season coming off a win as an underdog while also going 4-13 ATS coming off a road win this year. The Nets have covered five straight against the Western Conference and it continues tonight. 3* New Jersey Nets
SEAN MURPHY
Nashville @ Florida
PICK: Florida
This is a fairly tough spot for the Nashville Predators as they're coming off a disappointing 1-0 shootout loss at home against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday, and now sit just three points up on eighth spot in the Western Conference standings.
They're still currently in fifth place, but having collected just three of a possible six points in their last three games, they've got the Red Wings, Kings, and Avalanche breathing down their neck.
Now they have to travel out-of-conference to face a Florida Panthers squad that would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler. Note that the Preds are back home to host the Kings tomorrow night, one of the teams chasing them for fifth place.
Florida has played .500 hockey since March 3rd, going 6-6. That's an accomplishment for a team that currently sits 14 games under .500 on the season.
I'll grab the half-goal as insurance in this one, as the Predators in particular have had a tendency to go to overtime lately. Four of their last seven games have been tied at the end of the regulation time. In what should be a close game, give me the Panthers at home. Take Florida +0.5 goals (regulation time) -145.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Spurs/Nets UNDER 193
The Spurs just played in Boston Sunday. This is a veteran team so fresh legs will be an issue in this spot. With this is mind, expect the Spurs to really slow the pace. San Antonio is 12-2 UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 182.9 points scored on average in these spots. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the UNDER.