Tom Freese
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play Over: 210½
Denver is led in scoring by forward Carmelo Anthony and his 28.9 points a game. Point guard Chauncey Billups scores 19.8 points a game. Guard J.R. Smith scores 15.3 points a game. Center Nene Hilario scores 13.9 points a game. Power forward Kenyon Martin scores 11.8 points a game the Nuggets score 107.1 points a game and they allow 102.5 points a game. Denver is 5-1 OVER their last 6 games with the Mavericks and they are 5-1 OVER their last 6 games vs. winning teams. Dallas is led in scoring by Dirk Nowitzki and his 24.5 points a game. Guard Jason Terry scores 16.8 points a game. Shawn Marion scores 12.1 point a game. Guard Jason Kidd scores 10.1 points a game. Forward Caron Butler scores 16.6 points a game. The Mavericks score 101.6 points a game 99.7 points a game. Dallas is 13-6 OVER off a straight up win and they are 7-3 OVER when playing with one day of rest. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks -5.5
The Nuggets are really struggling right now, and it will be extremely difficult to get it done here against a fresher Mavs team that will be hungry for revenge after getting crushed in Denver by nearly 40 points last month. Right away I like the fact that plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 57-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, Denver is 1-8 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games this season and 6-17 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The Nuggets are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and we'll fade them again here.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS –5 over Denver
The Nuggets are in a very difficult spot here in terms of everything and we’ll start with their schedule. They went toe-to-toe with the Magic yesterday in an intensity filled game that was close throughout but the Nuggets lost again. It was Denver’s fourth road game in a row and it was also its fourth game since Tuesday. They’ll play in Dallas tonight and they’ll play its fifth road game in seven nights, its third in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs. That’s a lot of basketball and a lot of traveling in less than a week. Dallas went into Denver in early February and were pounded by 36 points and now the Mav’s catch the Nuggets in about as ripe a spot as they could hope for. The Mav’s are also just a half-game back of the Nuggets in the overall Western standings and finishing ahead of them is very important should they happen to meet in the playoffs. Thus, this game is a big one and the Mav’s have no excuses whatsoever for not putting away this exhausted guest. Play: Dallas –5 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
NEW ORLEANS +6/+2.05 over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are certainly not in any kind of trouble and in fact, they’re going to be pretty much on cruise control the rest of the way. They have a comfortable six-game lead on the Mav’s for first overall and they’re not going to blow that. Normally, I don’t like to wager against the Lakers because of the “phantom calls” that Kobe gets every single game without exception and that can get frustrating. However, this looks like a vulnerable spot for the Lakers, who might not care much about this one. The Lakers will play its fourth in a row on the road after a win in Houston on Saturday. They’ve won eight of its last nine games and will close out its trip on Wednesday in Atlanta and one would think that game is more appealing for them than this one. The Lakers have ruined the Hornets twice already this year by scores of 110-99 and 104-88. They’ve beaten New Orleans three in a row and six of the last seven matches. The Hornets will play for nothing but if there’s a game left they want to do well in it would be this one. The arena should be full, Chris Paul is back and incredibly enough, this is the Hornets 11th straight game in which they’ve been taking back some points. So, this is the Hornets “game of the year” and win, lose or draw, they’re in a very good spot. Expect the Hornets to show up and be in a position to win or cover or both. Play: New Orleans +6 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: New Orleans +2.05 (Risking 1 unit).
John Ryan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: LA Lakers -6
3* graded play on the Lakers as they take on New Orleans set to start at 8:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers will win this game by more than 8 points. New Orleans has lost 5 of 6 by double digits and now face a Lakers squad looking to wrap up home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-15 ATS for 77% ATS winners since 2004. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, and with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Model also projects that the Lakers will hit between 48 and 51%. In past games shooting within this range they are 28-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons. Lakers have done very well against teams they know they should defeat easily. They are 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Lakers.
Hollywood Sports
San Antonio Spurs at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
San Antonio (44-28) earned an impressive 94-73 win in Boston last night which makes it two very nice wins in a row after the Spurs defeated Cleveland Friday night. Now San Antonio travels to New Jersey and we expect this veteran team to experience one of their typical letdowns. San Antonio has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last ten games after holding their previous opponent to under 75 points. And the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last eleven road games as a favorite. It is tough to see the Spurs maintaining their intensity against the lowly Nets (9-64) playing this game without rest. The Nets had won two games in a row before losing to Chicago by a 106-83 score on Friday. But the Nets will be very motivated to play well as they are desperate to earn one more win to avoid the infamy of earning the least amount of wins in NBA history. Surprisingly, the Nets tend to overachieve against the best teams in the league as they have covered six of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%. Tonight shapes up to be a good situation for New Jersey to catch San Antonio asleep at the wheel. Take the points with New Jersey.
TEDDY COVERS
Saint Louis @ Virginia Commonwealth
PICK: Saint Louis +9
St Louis has been an under-the-radar pointspread machine for the better part of the last two months. Rick Majerus did not enter the season with great expectation for his Billikins squad, and St Louis did not look like a postseason contender for the first three months of the season. But St Louis has caught fire: 12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 ballgames; including a 7-2 ATS mark as an underdog (with six outright wins) during that span. Two of their three losses came against NCAA tourney caliber opposition – Temple and Xavier – and both of those defeats came by six points or less, enough to cover tonight’s inflated pointspread.
The Billikins statistical profile is not going to overwhelm anybody. They miss free throws. They don’t rebound well. At times, the offense grows stagnant. Leading scorer Kwamain Mitchell goes cold at times. Big men Willie Reed and Cody Ellis are not dominant low post presences. There’s not much scoring punch coming off the bench.
Yet even with these weaknesses, the Billikins have done two things on a consistent basis all year long; the two things that are likely to keep them in this game for the full 40 minutes tonight. First and foremost, St Louis plays tremendous defense, holding foes to 40 percent shooting for the season; 28 percent from three point range. VCU loves to get out and run in transition. Their last two losses – both against Old Dominion – came in games where the opposing team forced their pace on the Rams. We can expect this game to be played at St Louis’s pace, not VCU’s.
The other thing St Louis has can’t be measured statistically. Quite simply, this team has heart. We’ve seen it for months now, as they’ve grinded out one tough win after the next. The Billikins don’t quit when trailing. They don’t let up when leading. They hang tough in hostile enviroments. Much like their head coach, this squad is still something of an undervalued commodity, worthy of support in a game that they don’t need to win in order to cover. 2* Take St Louis.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5
The life has been sucked out of the Hornets as we near the end of the season. New Orleans knows they have no shot of making the playoffs, and they have started to quit competing on a nightly basis because of it. New Orleans is 3-12 SU & 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Chris Paul has returned, but the Hornets' coaching staff isn't going to push him considering there's no need to chance re-injury when they have no chance to make the postseason. Not only is this team losing of late, but their last 6 losses have all come by double-digits. So they really haven't even been all that competitive. The Lakers have won 8 of their last 9 games overall and they are trying to clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference with a couple more victories.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles –1.08 over MINNESOTA
The Kings have hit a snag in the road but this is still a good squad and a trip to Minnesota could be just what the doctor ordered. L.A has owned this team over the past couple of years with three straight wins in Minny and victories in six of the last seven meetings overall. L.A. has dropped three in a row and really need to get back to the form they were in all year and up to the Olympic break. Call it a funk or call it what you want but these Kings are still tough as nails and could get right-sided at any time. Expect an all out effort for the full 60 minutes from this visitor, as they catch a Wild squad that’s very banged up and losers of four of its last six games. The Kings road record is one of the best in the business. Play: Los Angeles –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
King Creole
NJN +8 vs SAN
4-19 ATS: All NBA teams playing with NO REST off a SU road dog win against the BOSTON CELTICS. And ROAD teams have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS. Play AGAINST the San Antonio Spurs!
0-5 ATS this season: All MONDAY road favorites playing with NO REST (Spurs)... versus any .333 or less opponent (NEW JERSEY).
8-1 ATS since December: All MONDAY non-conference home underdogs (NEW JERSEY).
Chuck O'Brien
San Antonio (-8') at NEW JERSEY
Monday’s complimentary winner comes in the NBA, as I’ll back the Spurs minus the big points in New Jersey.
Normally I wouldn’t be interested in supporting aging San Antonio in a back-to-back situation (the Spurs played a late game in Boston last night and rolled 94-73). However, I’m willing to make an exception today for two reasons: 1) star center Tim Duncan played just 27 minutes vs. the Celtics last night and thus should be quite fresh for this contest, and 2) the Nets are dreadful.
After posting just their eighth and ninth victories of the season over the lowly Kings and Pistons at home on Wednesday and Friday – their first two-game winning streak of the season! – the Nets reverted to their crappy form Saturday and got destroyed in Chicago, losing 106-83 as a nine-point underdog (they had just 37 points at halftime). That means New Jersey’s last five losses have been double-digit blowouts, and 12 of the last 15 defeats going back to just Feb. 19 have been by eight points or more.
Also, this has been a completely one-sided “rivalry” the past seven years, with the Spurs winning 14 consecutive meetings going back to the 2003 NBA Finals matchup. Also since early in that Finals series, San Antonio is on a 12-3-1 run against the Nets, including EIGHT straight spread-covers in New Jersey!
With last night’s win over the Celtics, San Antonio has now cashed in 12 of 15 overall, six of seven as a favorite and seven of nine on the road. As for that back-to-back thing, the veteran Spurs have handled it well recently, going 4-1 ATS in the last five in that spot.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Michael Cannon
LA Lakers (-6) at NEW ORLEANS
I’m now 22-10 with my last 32 free plays.
Take the Lakers as the road chalk over the Hornets.
Los Angeles has won eight of its last nine overall and wraps up its five-game road trip against a Hornets team that has officially been eliminated from the playoffs.
New Orleans has lost eight of 10 overall (3-7 ATS) and 12 of its last 15 (3-11-1 ATS), and defense has been the major culprit. The Hornets allowed Portland to shoot over 57 percent from the field in Saturday’s 112-101 loss, and New Orleans was outrebounded 35-25.
The Lakers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to New Orleans and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings. Los Angeles has also cashed in five of its last seven road games overall.
Take the Lakers minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
3♦ LA LAKERS
Chris Jordan
L.A. Lakers (-6) at NEW ORLEANS
The defending NBA champs should have no problem earning their ninth win in 10 games, as they look to sweep the season series of the Hornets, who have lost five of their last six by double digits.
I know the Lakers weren't themselves against Oklahoma City the other night, but they bounced back nicely against the Rockets on Saturday and have had time to rest for this one; plus they're still looking to lock homecourt advantage for the Western Conference playoffs.
L.A. has won the first two meetings by an average margin of 13.5 points per win. And since the Hornets’ last five losses have been by an average of 13.4 points, I sense a blowout by the Lakers coming on.
2♦ LAKERS
Stephen Nover
New York at UTAH
I've been red-hot on my complementary NBA selections going 8-2 on my last 10, including Sunday's Sacramento-Cleveland under the total winner.
I'm going to keep with totals for Monday's free play and take the over in the Knicks-Jazz game.
The Knicks have reverted back to their earlier ways of playing no defense. They are giving up an average 117.3 points in their last three games.
It's not hard to see why the Knicks have been so bad on defense. Their rotation consists of Toney Douglas, this week's flavor of the month at point guard, Tracy McGrady, Danilo Gallinari, Bill Walker, David Lee, Al Harrington and gunner Eddie House.
The Jazz are not the opponent you want to meet on the road when you're struggling defensively. The Jazz are averaging 115 points in their last six home games, while shooting 54 percent from the floor.
The Knicks do catch one break. The Jazz aren't expected to have forward Andrei Kirilenko, perhaps their best defender. He's missed five of the past six games with a calf injury. The Jazz don't want to rush him back, especially in a mismatch.
Kirilenko's absence not only takes away a good defender and shot-blocker, but sets up extra minutes for Kyle Korver, a tremendous shooting swingman who doesn't play much defense.
2♦ KNICKS/JAZZ OVER
Brandon Lang
St. Louis (+9) at VCU
Free Pick Runs of 5-2 last 7... 10-5 last 15... 13-7 last 20.
Going to back St. Louis as the road dog tonight at VCU in the opener of the best of 3 CBI tournament.
Billikens allow just 59.7 points a game, 9th best in the nation, and are especially tough defending the 3-ball, giving up 27.9% on the year. That defense will allow them to stay within the big number.
VCU is 17-1 SU at home this year, but remember, the Rams struggled to get by a tired Boston U team coming off an overtime game in its last victory, trailing by 1 at halftime before going on a 21-8 run that eventually led to an 88-75 win. I used VCU (-11') as a free pick in that game and barely got the cover.
If you struggle as home against Boston U, you aren't going to blow out a battle-test St. Louis squad from the A-10 Conference.
St. Louis has won 11 of its last 14 SU. They don't get the win tonight, but should get the cover.
ST. LOUIS
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis (+9) at VCU
My FREE play run now sits at 74-48-3 and I've got a winner tonight on the college hardwood as I grab the points with St. Louis in the first game of the CBI championship series at Virginia Commonwealth.
St Louis finished fourth in a damn good Atlantic-10 conference and yet they are still catching almost double digits in this CBI title series against VCU? I’ll gladly say thanks and grab the points with the Billikens.
Think about the Big Dance and even the NIT and look who these guys faced on a night-in, night-out basis in the A-10. First you have Temple who won the regular season and was in the Big Dance and of course we saw what Xavier did, reaching the Sweet 16 before losing in double-overtime in the game of the tourney against Kansas State on Thursday.
Then you throw in Dayton and Rhode Island, who are both in New York for the NIT semifinals and you see the kind of competition coming out of this conference.
St. Louis crushed Princeton on Wednesday to reach this title game, winning 69-59 as a four-point favorite. Kwamain Mitchell led the way for the Billikens with 21 points and five assists and Willie Reed added 20 points and 10 boards.
VCU was fifth in the Colonial Athletic Association and was spoon fed easy competition in the final two rounds of this event, beating Charleston and dominating Boston University on Wednesday, winning 88-75 as an 11 ½-point favorite. The Rams didn’t have any huge wins in the regular season and the pressure will be on them to get this one today before going to St. Louis for the final two games of this series.
St. Louis just needs to keep it tight and we’re going to cash on this one. I don’t see them getting blown out, so definitely grab the points and play the Billikens.
3♦ ST. LOUIS