Karl Garrett
St. Louis at VCU (-9)
Tonight in the CBI it would be very easy to jump on St. Louis plus the points, as this sure does seem like a lot of points to ask the Rams to cover, but upon further review, I have a feeling that game one of this best-of-three series is going to produce a lopsided result in the favor of the host.
The Billikins benefitted from playing all 3 of their postseason games on their home hardwood, now they will take to the road for the first time, and they will be playing at the Siegel Center where VCU is a solid 17-1 straight up for the year.
The Rams have also gone 7-2-1 against the spread their last 10 at home, while the Billikins are a pedestrian 6-7 against the spread on the road this season.
VCU has gotten the job done when favored, covering in 4 of their last 5, and 6 of their last 8 in the role of favorite.
Going to lay the wood tonight with the Rams.
2♦ VCU
Jeff Benton
My amazing free-play winning streak hit nine in a row Sunday as the Bulls crushed the Pistons. In addition to nailing my last nine freebies in a row, I’m now on runs of 48-22-2, 38-17-2 and 29-12-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Monday, I’ll stay in the NBA and back the Nuggets plus the points at Dallas. No doubt, Denver is in its worst slump of the season, losing four of its last five games and five of the last eight, going 0-7-1 ATS during this stretch after Sunday’s 103-97 loss in Orlando as a six-point underdog. Despite that, and even though the Nuggets’ high-octane offense has been stuck in neutral lately (scoring less than 100 points in six of seven games), they still have the advantage in this one. And the sole reason is because Dallas cannot be trusted to lay points at home.
The Mavericks are 3-26-2 ATS in their last 31 home games, including 2-26-2 ATS as a home favorite; and 0-25-2 ATS as a favorite of more than four points. Furthermore, Dallas is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a favorite in any arena and 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 against teams from the Northwest Division (think Portland, Utah, Denver and Oklahoma City).
Yes, the Mavericks blew out Golden State on Saturday, easily covering as a three-point road favorite. But they’ve covered the spread in consecutive games just three times since the end of November. Finally, Dallas has had its problems with the Nuggets recently, losing eight of the last 10 meetings and going 7-19 ATS in the last 26 overall clashes (2-7 ATS last nine). In fact, Denver has cashed in each of its last six visits to Big D.
6♦ DENVER NUGGETS
Brett Atkins
Even though some of you probably won with the Magic on Sunday, I'm going to take the push with them as the number was likely six when some of you got on it. Today I've got an NBA free winner for you as I grab the points with the Hornets as they host the Lakers in New Orleans.
Los Angeles continues its five-game road trip in New Orleans today against a Hornets’ team that can do some damage with a small, quick lineup.
That’s exactly what the Lakers ran into on Friday night in Oklahoma City when they got blown out 91-75. Saturday they went to Houston and scored a 109-101 win but three games in four nights is a little much to ask of these guys.
Plus New Orleans has a habit of rising up against the elite of the league as they are 25-9 ATS at home against teams with winning road records. Meanwhile, the Lakers are on ATS skids of 0-6 after a spread-cover, 1-7-1 on Mondays and 1-5 against losing teams.
I’ll grab the points with New Orleans in this one.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Joel Tyson
21-12-1 comp play run the last 34 days.
Monday night grab the points with the Raptors, as they are pretty much in a "must win" spot against the Bobcats.
Toronto is sliding straight up, but they have covered 2 straight, and 4 of their last 5, and the visitor in the series in on a 6-2 spread run.
Going to grab the points, and look for the Raptors to keep this one a little closer than the oddsmakers expect.
2♦ TORONTO
Matt Rivers
Take the points with the Nuggets on the road over the Mavericks.
This is more of a go-against for Dallas than it is a go-with for Denver.
Both teams have struggled at the betting window recently, but the Nuggets have the overall talent to keep this one close tonight.
Denver does have a good history against Dallas, going 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings and 19-7 ATS in the last 26 overall.
The Nuggets are also on a 19-8 ATS run in their last 27 against Southwest Division teams and 7-1-4 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog of five to 10½ points.
Take the points as Denver stays within the number.
2♦ DENVER
LT PROFITS
New York Knicks vs Utah Jazz
Unbelievably, the New York Knicks are 10-0 against the spread in their last 10 head-to-head meetings with the Utah Jazz despite the Jazz obviously having the much better team in all of those meetings.
Yes, we realize that this streak goes back five years and that the players have changed, but realize that the talent differential between these teams was never as large in favor of Utah as it has been the last two years, and yet the Knicks have still covered all three meetings in this span. Than includes a narrow 95-95 Jazz win at Madison Square Garden in the first encounter this season as 5.5-point favorites.
This head-to-head series aside, the Knicks have almost as many straight up wins on the road this season (10) as they do at home (16). Yes, they are off of a crushing 132-96 defeat at Phoenix as Coach Mike D'Antoni visited his former team, but the Knicks are still 4-3 SU in their last seven games including an impressive road win at Dallas and a nice home win vs. Denver, so they seem to always get up for the better Western Conference teams.
The Jazz are their customarily great 29-8 SU at home, winning those games by a very nice average of +10.1 points per game, but this is one of the few times where that AMOV would not be good enough to cover the spread.
Perhaps most importantly, this is the first home game back for the Jazz after a three-game Eastern road trip, and teams coming home from three or more road games vs. the opposite conference usually come out very lethargic, especially when you consider the length of the return trip from Washington.
That would make this a good situational spot for the Knicks under any circumstance, and the fact that the New Yorkers have played the Jazz incredibly tough is an added bonus that makes the Knicks catching double-digits an even stronger play.
Pick: Knicks +11.5
Black Widow
1* on Spurs/Nets UNDER 193
San Antonio comes in a bit tired after their win at Boston last night, so that certainly favors a low-scoring game. Their defensive effort will be there tonight, but don't expect the Spurs to be all that sharp offensively. The Nets have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league all season, scoring 90.0 points/game at home this year. They have been a decent defensive team surprisingly, allowing 98.9 points/game at home. Get this, 21 of the last 22 meetings in this series between the Spurs & Nets have seen 192 or less combined points. Now that's a trend worth backing tonight as this total has certainly been inflated. Take the UNDER 193 points here.
Triple Threat Sports
Lakers/Hornets Under
Last four series meeting in The Big Easy have gone Under the total, New Orleans is 1-6 to the Under as a home underdog of this range, and in their last eleven games with a total of 200 or more the Lake Show is 3-8 to the Under.
Roz Juarbe
NY Knicks at Jazz
The long road trip for the Knicks continues, 3,000 miles from home. The defense isn’t getting any better, giving up 132 points at Phoenix. They’ve allowed an average of 122 ppg the last three contests. Making matters tougher is that they face another uptempo team in Utah, a group that has scored over 100 points in 15 of the last 16 games! I don’t see any defense tonight; Play the NY Knicks/Utah Jazz Over the total.
O.C. Dooley
Nuggets at Mavericks OVER 209.5
This is a dangerous pick as Denver has played below the total SIX times in the past 7 outings while Dallas is 4-1 below the spot the last five times they have taken the floor. To make matters worse Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki has scored below the 20-point barrier in four consecutive contests which is unheard of for the perennial All-Star. But the fact of the matter is that tonight is the first time the Nuggets and Mavericks have met each other in Dallas since a memorable Western Conference semifinal playoff clash which ended up with a 119-117 final score. In that playoff shootout Nowitzki poured in 44 POINTS for the Mavericks while Carmelo Anthony had 41 POINTS of his own for the Nuggets. In the most recent regular season meeting between these two teams that are near the top of the Western Conference playoff chase Denver put 127 points on the scoreboard while successfully hitting on a whopping 60-PERCENT of their shot attempts from the field