Vernon Croy
Houston Rockets vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Houston Rockets +2
This pick falls into one of my NBA systems and the Rockets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing a Eastern Conference opponent. The Raptors are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after covering the number in their previous game and they are also just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after a win. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a Southwest Division opponent and they are just 18-40 ATS in their last 58 home games when playing a team that has a road win rate greater than .600. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games when playing a team that has a winning record at home and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a win. Houston is a perfect 9-0 SU in their last 9 games against an Atlantic Division opponent and they are 31-9 SU when playing a poor defensive team that allows 99+ points per game like the Raptors who have allowed 101.2 ppg this season. Houston has won 6 of their last 7 games while the Raptors have lost 13 of their last 19 games.
Cajun Sports
UL Monroe vs. Loyola Chicago
Play: UL-Monroe +5.5
The CBI Championship Series begins on Monday night with a best-of-three between UL-Monroe Indians and the Ramblers of Loyola-Chicago. We know the Indians are a perfect 3-0 against the number in Postseason contests and 44-26-3 ats when coming off a game that went Over the posted total. The Indians have proven to be a tough out on the road in this price range when they are coming off back-to-back su victories as underdogs posting a record of 62-39-1 ats. Finally we want to Play ON postseason underdogs coming off a su and ats win while going Over in their last game, these pups are 51-32-3 ats.
Stephen Nover
Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -8½
The record shows the Grizzlies to be on a three-game losing streak with all the defeats being blowouts. On closer inspection, though, those losses have come to maybe the three hottest and best teams in the NBA right now - the Warriors, Cavaliers and Spurs.
Now the Grizzlies go from upper elite to bottom echelon meeting lottery-bound Sacramento, which has managed to cover only 25 percent of its last 24 road games.
Memphis has one of the best home marks in the NBA at 27-9. The Kings have failed to cover the last eight times they've been on the road facing a home club with a winning percentage better than .600.
The Grizzlies won't play again until Friday when they host Oklahoma City. This should result in an all-out stop-the-pain game against the lowly Kings, who have even talked about resting DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay, which would be an unexpected bonus if it were to happen here.
Memphis has owned the Kings at home winning the past nine times. Sacramento, however, beat the Grizzlies at home on Feb. 25 in a heated contest. This should provide added incentive for Memphis.
Cousins is a legitimate star and Gay is thriving under George Karl. But Sacramento has a terrible backcourt and a weak bench. Both of those shortcomings were on fully display in its last game, a 102-88 loss to the Pelicans this past Friday.
I would like the Grizzlies even more in this spot if it were for sure that underrated Tony Allen, a defensive whiz, was going to play. He's questionable with a hamstring injury.
Marc Lawrence
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Phoenix Suns +7½
Edges - Suns: 9-3 ATS with no rest in this series; and 20-12 ATS away with same season double revenge-exact versus foe off a win. Trail Blazers: 5-10 ATS versus unrested foe this season, including 1-8 ATS the last nine. With the Suns looking to avenge a quick loss suffered against Portland at home last Friday night the points become the play here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Phoenix.
John Ryan
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -7½
The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 9 points and a solid projection for a 14 point win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-42 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 1996. Play on any team (ATLANTA) explosive offensive team scoring >=102 PPG and now facing an average offensive team scoring between 92 and 98 PPG after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season; 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Atlanta is off a 15 point drubbing to Charlotte and is certainly reasonable to expect a much more focused game tonight playing at home. Milwaukee is literally falling further off the cliff having lost 7 of their last 9 games and cvovering just three of the nine. They have been a highly erratic team shooting very well one night and then the complete opposite the next night. This inconsistent play is visible at both ends of the court and Atlanta will exploit that completely tonight.
Brad Diamond
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -4
Can understand, if the Lakers have no emotion after Nets loss on Sunday. The home standing Nets went out to a 14-point lead and really never looked back...here Kobe done for the season. Sixers off an 87-86 loss to disinterested Cleveland in Ohio...Like Philly's chances tonight, though, carrying a batch of younger players who still have some spring late March. With the Sixers 8-2 ATS vs. the West, look for the home unit to circumvent the spread run by the Lakers on Broad St.
Art Aronson
Vancouver Canucks vs. St Louis Blues
Play: St Louis Blues -160
I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot. Both teams have for the most part played extremely well all year, but each is stumbling towards the finish line. In a situation like this, I don't think that home ice advantage can be overlooked and feel that it will ultimately help in deciding the outcome of this contest. After winning seven of nine, the Canucks have dropped two straight, including a 4-3 OT loss to Dallas on Saturday. To say this is a revenge game for the home side would be an understatement I think as Vancouver has won five straight in the series. The Blues will be hungry, they're just 1-2-2 in their last five and have lost four of six at home. I am going to call Vancouver's Eddie Lack and St. Louis' Brian Elliot a "wash" tonight, but note that the Canucks are just 4-5 (-2.1 units) following a loss by four goals or more in overtime this season. The desperation level in which St. Louis plays with tonight will be the difference, consider a second look at the BLUES in this one.
Steve Rosen
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Montreal Canadiens -120
I love this play for many reasons tonight, the strongest is the revenge factor. The Habs have lost all 4 games this season to the Lightning. Keep in mind last season the Habs won the last 4. The Habs have been heating up while the Lightning have lost their last 2 games and more importantly only produced 2 goals in 120 minutes!Also,Tampa Bay, trailing the first-place Canadiens by three points in the Atlantic Division, comes in off Saturday’s 4-0 loss at Detroit when it lost two key players to injuries.Top-four defenseman Jason Garrison was sent back home to be evaluated after suffering an upper-body injury and physical forward Cedric Paquette sustained a lower-body injury Saturday. With veterans Garrison and Braydon Coburn (lower body) out, the Lightning must go with three defensemen with less than 120 NHL games of experience.The Habs show why they are number 1 in their division and why the Lightning are number 2 with a beat down tonight!
Jesse Schule
Buffalo Sabres vs. Arizona Coyotes
Play: Buffalo Sabres +1½ -179
These two teams met in Buffalo last week, in a historical game that will always be remembered for the fact that Buffalo fans cheered when Arizona scored the overtime winner. That all but sealed up the top draft lottery spot for the Sabres, who many feel have been tanking to get Connor McDavid. Starting backup goaltender Matthew Hackett in that game was certainly an indication that the Sabres had very little interest in winning. Hackett is 0-4 with a 4.42 GAA this season, and he was pulled after surrendering three goals on 10 shots in a loss at Colorado on Saturday.
The Sabres rallied to score three goals in the third period of that game, but Anders Lindback allowed two more goals on just a dozen shots. We are likely to see Lindback get the start in the rematch tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sabres go all out for a win here. Arizona is a huge favorite in this game, despite the fact that goaltender Mike Smith is still on pace to break a 20 year old record for the most losses by a starting goaltender. Arizona has lost seven straight on home ice, and 16 of it's last 17 in Glendale.
These teams have played close games in recent meetings, with four of the last five decided by one goal, and three of those requiring overtime. The Sabres have actually won four straight visits to Arizona.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles at Philadelphia
Pick: Under
This isn't your Lakers/Sixers matchup from the 1980's when the likes of Moses Malone, Dr J and Magic Johnson graced the hardcourt. Nope, this version pits two of the worst in the NBA against each other. Still, there is money to be made in this kind of contest and it's the UNDER I'm looking at here. The Lakers have gone under in two straight, four of five and nine of the last 12 and 6-15-1 the last 22. Philly has gone under in four of the last six. They are also 9-23 O/U when playing on no rest the last 32 times. The Sixers are also 7-16 O/U in their last 23 home games. The Sixers have had one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the NBA this year. Might not be a fun game to watch, but collecting at the window is always fun.
DAVE COKIN
BOSTON CELTICS VS CHARLOTTE HORNETS
PLAY: BOSTON CELTICS +4
Here we go again with the Celtics back in the no rest scenario, and for whatever reason this team seems to embrace that role about as much as any team in the NBA.
The numbers for Boston playing the second of back to back games don’t make a whole lot of sense, but it’s tough to argue against 10-5 straight up and 12-2-1 against the line. In fact, the Celtics are a sort of ridiculous 68% play the last 50 occasions where they’ve had to endure playing on a second straight night. .
The dealings between Boston and Charlotte have been underdog dominated, with the team receiving points standing 23-9-1 in the last 33 meetings.
Enough with the historical data. I can see a case being made for the Celtics just on the way they match up with this opponent. They’re simply what appears to be the better basketball team at this juncture. That’s not to suggest Boston is any kind of powerhouse, but rather, the Hornets have been largely awful of late.
I’m not giving any weight to the Charlotte win over Atlanta on Saturday. The Hawks stay their regulars and were coming off a celebration win the prior night. Call it right place, right time for the Hornets and they cashed in. But over the last few weeks, Charlotte has been one of the worst teams in the NBA, and that make them risky proposition as even small chalk.
This is a big game for both teams. Boston currently sits in ninth place in the playoff race, just a half hame behind Brooklyn for the last post-season spot. The Hornets are also right there at 31-41, just one game behind the Nets. But while the Celtics are holding their own, Charlotte has been going in the wrong direction.
This ought to be a close game that is approached very intensely by each team. It’s certainly not a stretch to see Charlotte winning on its home court. But I don’t see it being easy and in a close to 50/50 type of matchup, give me the team that’s been more consistently competitive on the current form chart. That’s the Celtics and getting points in the process makes Boston the side I’ll align myself with tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Loyola-Chicago / UL Monroe Under 132: Both of these teams play slow on offense and have trouble scoring, while both team have played excellent defense this year and even with the new shot clock rules i can't see this one putting up more than 125 points. Loyola played an uptempo game vs Oral Roberts in their 2nd game of this tournament, but through the course of the year that was just their 3rd Division 1 home game all year that saw more than 130 points scored and their other two home games in this Tournament, with the new shot clock rules, have put up just 121 and 111 points. Overall this year Loyola home games have averaged just 121.2 ppg. The Ramblers have played excellent defense this year, allowing just 60.3 ppg overall and just 58.8 ppg at home, while Monroe has averaged just 61.8 ppg on just 39.4% shooting on the road. The Warhawks have also played solid defense this year as they have allowed just 61.2 ppg on 38.5% shooting overall, including just 62.8 ppg on 39.1% shooting on the road. The Ramblers are a solid shooting team, but because of their slow pace they average just 62.6 ppg overall and just 62.4 ppg at home. This is much like the game that the Ramblers had vs Seattle as it should be slow paced without much scoring and as I said in the open, I don't expect more than 125 points in this one.
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Monday will be Utah over Minnesota in the NBA.
The Timberwolves stopped a 3 game series losing streak with the overtime win at Salt Lake City a week ago, but I expect the Jazzmen to get back on track tonight in this road contest, as Utah comes into this one off a nice home upset win over Oklahoma City their last time out.
Minny's last win comes against Utah, as the T-Wolves have dropped 3 in a row since that upset win in Utah, and the Wolves are only 3-14 straight up their last 17 games, and just 4-8 against the spread in their last dozen games.
Utah resumes their winning with the road cover tonight at Minnesota.
Lay it.
1* UTAH
Jeff Benton
Monday freebie is the Bucks plus the points against the Hawks.
Atlanta seems content now to rest their core players as they get set for the playoffs, so that being the case, recommend not laying so many points with the # 1 seed in the East.
The road team has won all 3 series meetings this season straight up, and while the Bucks may not be able to win this one outright, with the points they should be there.
Atlanta is just 6-10 against the spread their last 16 games, while the Bucks are showing some signs of life again with 2 wins in their last 3 contests.
Points work tonight against the half-interested Hawks.
Take the Bucks.
3* MILWAUKEE
Mr Vegas
Boston at Charlotte
Play: Charlotte
Boston having some tough times of late after what looked like they had turned things around. However, after a double-digit loss at home to the Clippers on Sunday, Boston now looks to lose that 8th and final playoff spot. The Celtics battling with Miami, Brooklyn, Indiana and Charlotte for the last two spots in the East. A loss on Sunday puts Brookly and Boston tied for the 8th spot with Indiana and Charlotte just a half game back of both. That makes this game a huge one for both clubs. Neither team can afford a loss, let alone to the team they are fighting with for a last playoff spot. With Boston playing Sunday and Charlotte having the day off, I give the edge here to the Hornets, who will be focused on a win.