LT Profits
Milwaukee vs Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -7.5
The Atlanta Hawks rested their starters in a 115-100 road loss at Charlotte Saturday, but they should all play returning home vs. the Milwaukee Bucks with the exception of Jeff Teague, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. And while the 55-18 Hawks have clinched the top seed in the East, they need a little momentum approaching the playoffs as they have not been sharp going 2-4 straight up their last six games, not even reaching 100 points in the two wins. Perhaps Atlanta can now return to its great early-season form with almost a regular lineup playing just its third home game in 11 contests. The playoff-bound Bucks meanwhile may regret trading away Brandon Knight at the deadline, as they are just 2-7 their last nine games to fall to one game below .500 overall. The Hawks are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. the Central Division.
Will Rogers
Vancouver Canucks vs. St Louis Blues
Play: Vancouver Canucks +1½ -205
The Vancouver Canucks are coming to St. Louis looking to sweep the series after defeating the Blues twice already on the season. Despite their recent success against the Blues, they are a significant underdog in this game. I like the visitors to keep this one close.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Special Teams - The Nucks power play unit ranks among the middle of the pack in the NHL, but it has been mighty efficient over recent games. Vancouver was 2-for-3 on the man advantage against Dallas Saturday and has notched at least one power play goal in five straight contests.
2. Brian Elliot's Struggles - The Blues #1 netminder has won only one of his last five outings and has allowed seven goals over his last two games. St. Louis held Columbus to 17 shots Saturday but three of those still trickled past the Moose. He was pulled after allowing four goals on 16 shots in only 25 minutes at Minnesota his previous appearance.
3. X-Factor - The Nucks are a respectable 22-12-3 away from home and they are 3-0-1 in their last four away from Rogers Center.
Jack Jones
Charlotte Hornets -3
The Charlotte Hornets get the nod Monday as only 3-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics. This is a big game for both teams as Boston is a 1/2-game behind Brooklyn for the No. 8 seed in the East, while Charlotte is 1-game behind Brookyn.
What I really like about this play is the rest for both teams coming in. Charlotte had yesterday off following a huge 115-100 win over Atlanta on Saturday. Boston played yesterday in a 106-119 home loss to the Clippers. Boston will now be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.
Charlotte is an impressive 43-21 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Kings/Grizzlies Under 197½
Memphis comes in having lost 3 straight and are now just 2.5-games up on 6th place San Antonio. Even though the Grizzlies will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 days overall, I look for them to come out with a lot of intensity on the defensive end. This is a game they simply can't afford to lose.
The Kings had won 4 straight before an ugly loss at New Orleans on Friday, where they looked tired. With two days off to regroup, I look for Sacramento to come out strong and try and snap their 9-game losing streak at Memphis. Something they nearly accomplished in the first meeting, before giving up a 26-point lead in a 1-point loss.
UNDER is 12-2 in the Kings last 14 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 33-18 in the Grizzlies last 51 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 7-0 in Memphis' last 7 home games in the 2nd half against a team with a losing record and 8-0 in their last 8 in the 2nd half against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ ppg. These trends combine to form a 75% (60-20) system.
SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver +135 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. These two have met four times this year and in three of those games the Blue Notes scored one goal or less. In the other game, both goaltenders had a poor outing but the Canucks still prevailed, 6-5. Vancouver has defeated the Blues all four games this season while outscoring them, 13-7. Since the start of the 2013 season, these two have met eight times with Vancouver winning six of them. In the two victories by St. Louis over that span, both were by one goal with one of them occurring in OT. You would have to go back a long way to find the last time the Blue Notes defeated the Canucks by more than one goal and even that hasn’t happened often. For whatever reason, the Blues bring out the best in the Canucks, which makes Vancouver a must play at this price. The Canucks' 22-12-3 road record proves how dangerous they are on the road. The Canucks also embark on a four-game trek beginning here ending with games in Nashville, Chicago and Winnipeg. All focus has to be on this one and we’re very confident that the Canucks will leave nothing on the table in this, the first game of said trip that will ultimately decide their playoff fate.
Both these teams have been very inconsistent lately with the Blues going 5-5 over their past 10 and the Canucks going 6-4 over their last 10 but losing its last two. However, St. Louis has dropped four of its past five games with only victory over that span occurring in OT against Pittsburgh. They had to rally from two down to get that win. Struggling to find their game and playing a team that has a significant psychological edge over them is not the best timing for the Blues right now. Vancouver always plays the Blues tough. When the Canucks show up and play their game, they are as difficult to beat as any team in the league. They also have a significant edge in net with Eddie Lack against Brian Elliott. Elliott has posted save percentages of .812, .750, .842 and .750 in four of his last six starts so his confidence has to be a little unsteady right now. The Blues goaltending situation remains a big concern going to the playoffs and in a game that figures to be extremely close, we’re thrilled to scoop up this tag with that psychological and goaltending edge.
Calgary +135 over DALLAS
OT included. Just when you start to believe a little more in the Stars after some stretches that impress, they give you the other side of the coin and do something like lose 4-0 to the Oilers or 6-2 to Minnesota. Dallas is just one of those teams that have proven over and over this year that they are not to be trusted when favored. They are also much worse at home (16-22) than they are on the road (21-17) and they return home here from that dreaded three-game trip to the Canadian West Coast. Dallas is still mathematically alive to make the playoffs so the motivation to win is still present but that means nothing with this team because they have come up lame all season when it appears that they’re ready to take that “next step”. The Stars weak attention to details, their shaky goaltending and their poor home record all combine to make this team a strong fade when favored in this range.
Raise your hand if you wrote the Flames off yet again yesterday in Nashville. Damn, we missed that one because we didn’t like Jonas Hiller in net but we’re not going to miss them tonight no matter which goaltender is in. The Flames continue to fight for their playoff lives. What a shame it would be to see them miss the playoffs after working their tails off the entire year. The good news is that the Flames do not need help. They are in complete control of their own destiny and that makes them very worthy of backing when being offered prices like this. The Flames have scored four goals in four of their past five games and four or more in six of their last nine. When the Flames hosted the Stars last week in Calgary and lost 4-3 in a shootout, Calgary took 7 minor penalties in that game. In other words they played 46 of the 60 minutes shorthanded, yet they still forced OT. That’s how resilient and determined this team is and it should be noted that they are the least penalized team in the NHL. The market hasn’t believed in this team all season. It still doesn’t and that allows us to continue playing them at some pretty sweet prices.
CHICAGO +102 over Los Angeles
OT included. This one is very likely going to come down to goaltending or which team has better luck than the other. It figures to be a battle from the opening face-off right to the final buzzer and there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which goaltender makes the big save or which puck fired towards the net will get deflected in. The outcome of NHL games is very much decided by those two things and that’s all there is to it. That is why we insist on playing value and in this game that value is with Chicago.
We couldn’t care less about how determined the Kings are to make the playoffs and how dangerous they are when the chips are down. We can counter that by saying how determined the Blackhawks will be to “prevent” L.A. from making the playoffs because that’s almost like winning a playoff series. Over the last three years, The Kings have played 68 games in the playoffs, which is very close to playing four seasons in three years. L.A.’s determination has to be admired but perhaps that’s why they are losing games against teams that are on par with them. Now the Kings are favored in Chicago and we would have to dig very deep to find the last time the Blackhawks were a pooch at the United Center. We don’t care about the three in four days that Chicago faces here either. You can throw all that out the window because Chicago has a chance to seriously decrease the Kings’ chances of making the playoffs and all out they shall go to do that. In the end, we have no idea which team will emerge victorious but we what we know for sure is that Chicago cannot be a dog in its own barn to any team in this league because their win expectation at the United Center is as great as or greater than any team in the league. We’re playing the value.
Wunderdog
Boston @ Charlotte
Pick: Boston +3
The NBA Eastern Conference has been somewhat of a farce this season. Currently there are five teams that are all five games under .500 or worse fighting for a playoff berth, and are seperated by just 2.5 games covering seventh place to 11th place. Two of those meet tonight in Charlotte as the surprising Boston Celtics, who dealt away Green and Rondo, their top players, and Charlotte, a playoff team a year ago, but struggling this season to survive. Boston is playing at a playoff level at 16-11 in their last 27 games and are 8-4 in their last 12 vs. a team below .500. Charlotte is just 3-8 in their last 11, and has been playing their way out of the playoffs instead of in. Boston's deep roster has them at 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 on no days rest. Make the play on Boston.
Dave Price
Utah Jazz -4½
The Minnesota Timberwolves (16-57) have pretty much just packed it in as they look to try and secure the most pinpong balls in the upcoming draft. They have the second-worst record in the NBA right now and are close to catching New York for the worst. They have gone 3-14 in their last 17 games overall. The real indicator that they have packed it in is their long injury list as they aren't forcing players to play with injuries, or 'made up' injuries at that. Nikola Pekovic, Ricky Rubio, Gary Neal, Kevin Garnett, Anthony Bennett, Kevin Martin and Shabazz Muhammad are all on the injury list. Utah has been one of the better teams in the NBA over the past couple months. It is 15-8 in its last 23 games overall while clearly playing out the season the prideful way. The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, while the Jazz had yesterday off. Minnesota is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games playing on no rest. Utah is 33-13 ATS when revenging a loss this season.
Ray Monohan
Calgary vs. Dallas
Play: Over 5½
Grabbing the OVER at a plus price here against the young Stars' team is very solid value. The Flames have jumped into 3rd place in the Pacific Division and sit just 2 points behind second place Vancouver. Calgary has been been one of the best teams ATS on the season as they are 49-27 overall and 28-9 in road games.
With such a good ATS record, it shows that the Flames are typically in a majority of their games and never get blown out. With that, grab the OVER tonight as they look to continue their climb in the standings. We expect some offensive output in this one. Over is 7-3 in DAL last 10 games following a win. Over is 11-2-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Loyola-Chicago
Play: Under 130
Loyola-Chicago and Louisiana-Monroe are set to face off in the fist of a best of 3 series for the CBI Championship and I expect this to be a low-scoring affair as both these teams struggle offensively and actually prefer to let their defense do the talking. ULM has held all three of their opponents in the CBI under 70 points, while Loyola has held Rider to 59 and Seattle to 48. UNDER is a perfect 6-0 in the Ramblers last 6 home games when they come in having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 8-1 in their last 9 after 15+ games against a strong defensive team that is holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field.
Ari Atari
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Phoenix Suns +8½
It's do or die for Phoenix and even though this isn't the best pick on the board, it provides enough value to get on board with all the points being offered. The Suns can keep up and they were to able to put up 62 in the first half in the eventual home loss to the Thunder. Closing out games have been an issue including a pitiful 4th quarter where SportsAtari took the Blazers to cover on Friday. 87-81 on Friday's loss and I'm capping this one at a slightly higher output in the 90's with the Suns losing by 5-7 points.
Sammy P
Tampa Bay at Montreal
Play: Tampa Bay +105
The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Montreal tonight and they currently trail the Canadians by three points in the Eastern Conference standings. This is a very important game in ultimately deciding who will earn home ice in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Lightning have dominated the Canadiens this season by winning all four meetings by a combined score of 16-5 including a 4-2 win on their home ice two weeks ago. In a tight checking, low scoring game like we’re likely to see this evening, I am fully confident in backing the more psychical team as a slight underdog. Tampa Bay matches up very well offensively against Montreal’s stingy defense. And after getting blanked 4-0 at Detroit on Saturday, the Lightning are in prime bounce-back mode. "We always respond after games like (Saturday's 4-0 loss to the Red Wings)," veteran wing Ryan Callahan said. "We have the character in here to do that. We know who's coming up next, and that's a pretty big one, too. So it's going to be easy to get up for that one." Should be a great game and one that I’m supporting the road side.
Nick Parsons
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -8½
The Suns have now lost three straight and are four games out of the eighth spot in the West. On the season, the Suns are putting up 103.8 points a game on 45.4 percent shooting and on the defensive end the Suns are giving up 103.4 points a game and their opponents are shooting 44.9 percent from the floor. The offensive production is led by Eric Bledsoe with 17.3 points and six assists a game. Markieff Morris adds 15.5 points and six rebounds a game.. The Phoenix Suns pretty much killed their playoff hopes with a Sunday loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Marcus Thornton and Brandon Knight are questionable with injuries.
The Portland Trail Blazers are hoping to extend their three-game winning streak. The Trail Blazers are scoring 102.5 points a game, while shooting 44.8 percent from the floor. Defensively, they are allowing 98.1 points and their opponents are shooting 43.8 percent from the floor. The Blazers are led by LaMarcus Aldridge with 23.6 points and 10.4 rebounds a game and Damian Lillard adds 21.1 points and 6.3 assists. The Portland Trail Blazers can lockup home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs if they can string a few more wins together. The Trail Blazers have won 10 of their last 12 games on their home court.
Phoenix has to be disappointed in their loss to OKC. Brandon Knight injured himself again and it is uncertain if he will play. This two things together do bode well for Phoenix against a Portland team that has something to play for.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Toronto Raptors over the Houston Rockets at home.
I believe the Raptors are in desperation mode right now, knowing the need to keep pace with the upper half of the Eastern Conference... where they once were. Remember, it was less than a month ago the Raptors were the #2 seed in the east behind Atlanta, but things have fallen apart in recent weeks due to some tough injuries.
As for Houston, they're going to put Dwight Howard on the shelf tonight or they'd probably be favored. But I think that's only one of the reasons Vegas listed the Raptors as the favorite here.
I think the other reason is because they know Toronto is going to do everything they can to win this game while it doesn't mean quite as much to the Rockets. Listing the home team as the 1 1/2 point favorite here guarantees more money coming in on Houston, and I truly believe that's what Vegas wants.
Houston will keep it close, but in the end the Raptors will find a way to "will a win" out of this bunch. Take the Raptors as your free play of the day.
1* TORONTO
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight comes from the NBA, as I like the Atlanta Hawks to win big over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks.
Atlanta just clinched the top-seed in the Eastern Conference with a 99-86 win over Miami on Friday night. No need to worry about a letdown, as coach Mike Budenholzer gave his starters the night off Saturday in Charlotte, where the Hawks lost, 115-100.
Now it's back to business.
The Hawks have won two of three meetings this season, specifically the last two after the Bucks won the first meeting, in Atlanta, 107-77. I don't care what you tell me about that game that was three months ago, it still stings and still pisses the Hawks off. Things like that don't go away.
Milwaukee has lost 10 straight on the road, while the Hawks are 31-5 at home this season.
Lay the chalk here, as Atlanta rolls.
2* ATLANTA
Gabriel DuPont
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Utah - Both teams are eliminated from the postseason, but Utah has had the better season and been the better team this entire season. You might be wondering why the road team is laying points, but I'll be glad to take a shot with the oddsmakers today.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Minnesota - Last night Flip Saunders said he was hoping Ricky Rubio would return for this game against the Jazz. Rubio (ankle) has missed eight of the last nine games. In fact, Gorgui Dieng, Kevin Martin and Rubio are all questionable for tonight's game against Utah.
Why UTAH is my SMART PLAY in this game - So, while the Jazz have lost four of their last five, the T'Wolves have lost three straight. Plus, Utah ended a four-game slide on Saturday with a 94-89 home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder, a victory I think will give this team a nice little boost for this game. What was even more impressive was that Utah outscored the Thunder by seven points in the second half, despite playing Friday night in Denver. The Timberwolves, who can barely put a team on the floor, are 3-14 in their last 17. Take the Jazz tonight.
3* UTAH