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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 31

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

San Antonio at Indiana
The Spurs head to Indiana tonight with the Pacers coming off a 90-76 loss yesterday to Cleveland and carrying an 0-7 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU defeat of more than 10 points. San Antonio is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4)

Game 731-732: Washington at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.066; Charlotte 117.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1); Over

Game 733-734: San Antonio at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 130.217; Indiana 117.243
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 13; 186
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4); Under

Game 735-736: Toronto at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 121.216; Miami 122.224
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+6); Under

Game 737-738: Milwaukee at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.018; Detroit 112.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6 1/2); Over

Game 739-740: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 107.309; Atlanta 115.033
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 208
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+13); Over

Game 741-742: Boston at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 110.858; Chicago 122.416
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 11 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 10; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-10); Under

Game 743-744: Sacramento at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.693; New Orleans 117.325
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4 1/2); Under

Game 745-746: LA Clippers at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.729; Minnesota 118.623
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 225
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2; 217
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-2); Over

Game 747-748: New York at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 117.594; Utah 112.044
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3; 196
Dunkel Pick: New York (-3); Under

Game 749-750: Memphis at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 122.669; Denver 117.238
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3 1/2); Over

NCAAB

Siena at Fresno State
The Bulldogs host the first game on the CBI Tournament final tonight against a Siena team that is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.Siena is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Siena (+8).

Game 751-752: Siena at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 58.071; Fresno State 63.701
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 8; 139
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+8); Under

NHL

Minnesota at Los Angeles
The Kings host a Minnesota team tonight that is 9-4 in its last 13 games versus Pacific Division opponents. Minnesota is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+170).

Game 51-52: Carolina at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.992; Ottawa 11.814
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-130); Under

Game 53-54: Florida at New Jersey (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.966; New Jersey 11.431
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-225); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-225); Over

Game 55-56: Winnipeg at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.537; Anaheim 12.460
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-230); Over

Game 57-58: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.778; Los Angeles 11.942
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+155); Under

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:00 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at Baltimore
The Red Sox send Jon Lester to the mound in the season opener to face a Baltimore team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a home underdog. Boston is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120).

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 16.332; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+150); Over

Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.358; NY Mets (Gee) 13.402
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 13.972; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.044
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

Game 907-908: St. Louis at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.930; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.265
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

Game 909-910: Colorado at Miami (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.296; Miami (Fernandez) 13.374
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+135); Under

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.638; Arizona (McCarthy) 13.956
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Over

Game 913-914: Kansas City at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.732; Detroit (Verlander) 14.822
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Under

Game 915-916: Boston at Baltimore (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 17.695; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.850
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.665; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.036
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.329; White Sox (Sale) 13.831
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Over

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 16.716; Oakland (Gray) 15.601
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115); Over

Game 923-924: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.684; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.123
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Under

Game 925-926: Philadelphia at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.442; Texas (Scheppers) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:01 am
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Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio vs. Indiana
Play: Under 190.5

This game fits a rare totals system that has only applied 8 times and has played under every time. We want to take the under for road favorites of 4 or Less, like the Spurs that covered the spread by 1-3 points as a 10+ home favorite, if they are playing a team that scored 90 or less on the road and lost to the spread, like the Pacers. The Spurs have stayed under in 5 of their last 6 and the Pacers have played under 10 of the last 12 vs winning teams, 7 of 9 vs South West division teams and the last 7 overall. Look for this game to stay under tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:07 am
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Art Aronson

Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 7

For whatever reason St. Louis starting pitcher Adam Wainwright has had problems with the Reds lineup and I think that helps us to get a higher scoring run total here. Wainwright went 1/3 in four starts against Cincinnati last season with a 7.77 ERA. In his last two starts against the Reds, he gave up 18 hits and 15 runs in only eight innings. He lasted a career-low two innings in one of those starts. Even the Cardinals manager Mike Matheny called it “a head scratcher.” The Reds meanwhile will go with Johnny Cueto who can’t seem to stay on the field enough to be considered a real ace of pitching staff. Cueto is 4-4 when starting against the Cardinals with a rough ERA of 4.66. Note the “over” is 10-5 in games when Cueto games started against the Cardinals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds jump out to an early lead in this game feeding off the home crowd with a scrappy Cardinals team bouncing back with late runs. Take the “over.”

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:08 am
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Steve Rosen

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1½ +120

White Sox starter Sale is 4-1 against the Twins. Nolasco on the other hand is 0-2 with a total of 9 runs being given up! The White Sox made a series of moves in the offseason to upgrade the club in the present and in the future and will get a look at newcomers like Adam Eaton and Cuban slugger Jose Abreu in the opener. I expect big things fro them this season and they will make a huge impact this game! I feel very confident in my clients grabbing the White Sox -1½.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:09 am
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Ray Monohan

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Seattle Mariners +115

Opening day is a great day to ride underdogs because it is usually best on best on the mound. That will be the case with Seattle at the Angels, Felix Hernandez vs. Jered Weaver. The King is always sharp early (1.90 ERA in April in 2013) in the year and was 2-1 against LAA last season with a 2.90 ERA. I don’t have to convince you that he “can” beat the Angels and that (+115/+125) value is too juicy to ignore. He is not often the underdog.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:09 am
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Tom Grassi

Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Washington Wizards +3

This Southeast Division matchup pits two struggling teams that continue to angle for position within the Eastern Conference for seeding in the upcoming playoffs. The visiting Washington Wizards lead the Charlotte Bobcats by three games entering this clash, but Washington has only covered three of their last 12 games, while the Bobcats have rotated wins and losses over the past few weeks.

The Wizards are looking for revenge after losing by double digits on their home court to Charlotte three weeks ago. Boosting the chances for that happening is the fact that the Bobcats have had major problems at home when it comes to divisional contests. In addition, Washington has not only been good on the road this year, but they’ve been hot lately when facing teams that have a strong home court advantage.

That success on the road for the Wizards has been especially effective when they’re coming off a home game, such as their win over the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday night. Under those circumstances, Washington has managed to beat the line in 14 of their 17 games.

Early action on this game has Charlotte barely getting a majority of the cash backing them, though the line has moved up a half-point in their favor. Still, the Bobcats’ recent inconsistency, coupled with a road team that can handle themselves in situations like these help push us toward the taking the points in this one.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:10 am
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Nick Parsons

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -6

While their playoff hopes are nearly over for another year, the Pistons will be eager to snap a three-game slide vs. a Milwaukee team which has just one road victory in 2014.

Detroit would fall 97-96 to Cleveland on Wednesday and then got rail-roaded 110-78 by the Heat on Friday. Things got worse on Saturday night when the Pistons were smashed 123-98 at Philadelphia.

Detroit plays with revenge here after falling 104-101 to the Bucks on January 22nd, a brutal setback as it was up by 13 midway through the third quarter in that one.

After beating the Lakers 108-105 on Thursday, Milwaukee made an immediate return to mediocrity with an 88-67 loss to Miami on Saturday, shooting a miserable 34.2 percent while posting its fewest points in more than three years.

Not surprisingly, the Bucks have struggled in almost every single ATS statistical category there is for bettors this season, however they’ve been particularly inept in this spot, a brutal 6-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or less and only 2-4 ATS as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 6 points range.

And as inconsistent as Detroit has been this year, note that this is a spot that it has in fact dominated in for bettors, a superb 10-6 ATS after three or more consecutive Straight Up losses.

Consider a second look at the home side in this one.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:10 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Boston Red Sox -118

Even with last year's numbers up a bit, Jon Lester has performed decently against Baltimore, including his outings at Camden Yards. The left-hander was at his very best in daytime outings in 2013 and I look for more of the same in this one. The biggest plus for Boston is the success Lester has enjoyed against Chris Davis, holding the Oriole slugger to 1 home run and just 3 hits in 24 at-bats. Chris Tillman toes the rubber for the Orioles after a somewhat shaky spring. Tillman will always be a concern at home until he shows he can limit the long-ball. Tillman is a fly-ball pitcher, not conducive to great numbers at Camden. In fact, he allowed 1.98 HRs per 9 IP at home last season as opposed to 0.84 HRs per 9 IP on the road. I need to see the righty get this under control on a consistent basis before I can back him at Camden against the better teams in the league. The O's will be without Manny Machado to start the season and I believe they'll also start without a "W" on opening day. I'm recommending a play on Boston on Monday.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:11 am
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Bryan Leonard

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -102

Cliff Lee against Yu Darvish would have made for one hell of an Opening Day. Instead, it's Cliff Lee against Tanner Scheppers. If you have no idea who Tanner Scheppers is, don't worry, a lot of people don't. Scheppers is making his first career MLB start on Opening Day. The last pitcher to do that was Fernando Valenzuela, but Scheppers does not possess that type of talent.

Cliff Lee was his usual awesome self in the Spring, posting a 26/4 K/BB ratio in 24.2 innings of work. There's no reason to put a lot of faith into Spring Training starts, but Cliff Lee could roll out of bed on Christmas morning and pump a fastball on the outside corner. The Rangers will have a tough assignment in this game. While they should clobber right-handed pitching with Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder added to the lineup, the group will have much less of an advantage against southpaws. Among the eight Rangers with the highest wRC+ against lefties last season, only two of them are still on the ballclub. Lee is a thoroughly efficient veteran pitcher, so there should be no concerns about easing him into the season.

Tanner Scheppers sat in the low-90s for games with PITCHf/x data this Spring. That's a concern because Scheppers found success last season out of the bullpen with an average fastball velocity above 96 mph. Scheppers is a fastball-slider guy, the prototypical two-pitch bullpen pitcher. Without a third pitch to keep lefties at bay, Scheppers is going to struggle as a starter. Scheppers hasn't made a start since 2011, so it's likely that he'll only pitch into the fourth, maybe fifth, inning. The Rangers will be forced into the bullpen early and that's always iffy early in the season as a lot of guys are still trying to find their release points and command. Expecting four or five pitchers to all be effective in early April is not going to be a profitable strategy.

This is a clear example of betting numbers and not teams. The Phillies probably won't be very good, but they have an enormous starting pitching advantage in this game as Lee has a matchup against a lineup that will struggle against lefties and will be facing a reliever forced into a starting role. The Rangers will win more games and look better throughout the season, but with injuries to Darvish, Profar, Soto, and a weakened lineup against righties, the price is right to take Lee in this one.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:11 am
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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Wizards at Charlotte BobcatsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Charlotte BobcatsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington and Charlotte are both battling for position in the Eastern Playoff picture. Lets face it, none of these teams wants the 7th or 8th spot since that means a series in Indiana or Miami. Right now Charlotte has that dreaded 7th spot and they are three games back of 6th and four games back of 5th, so tonight's contest is of utmost importance to Charlotte. The Bobcats can ill afford a loss to the team they are chasing. The Wizards have won two straight after beating Atlanta at home, 101-97. Still, the Wizards haven't been playing like a team holding onto a playoff spot, evidenced by their 5-6 S/U mark their last 11 games. And for bettors, it's been even worse as the Wizards have made money disappear to the tune of a 3-9 ATS mark the last 12 games. Meanwhile, Charlotte has won eight of their last 13 games S/U and covered nine of their last 13 games. The clubs have split the previous two games this season, though Charlotte is 4-2 ATS the last six meetings. The Cats have also been great at home of late, going 12-3-1 ATS their last 16 home games. I look for Charlotte to be much more motivated here tonight and the Wizards haven't played well either straight up or for the money.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:12 am
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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta HawksFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta coughing and wheezing itself down the stretch as it tries to hang on to the 8th and final East playoff spot, and Hawks have had a mild revival since PF Paul Millsap returned from injury a few weeks ago. Atlanta owns a pair of DD wins and covers at Sixers' expense, including 26-point win at Philly in most-recent meeting on Jan. 31 when Hawes and Turner were still in Philly uniforms. Having said all of that, not too excited about the prospect of perhaps laying DDs with Atlanta, especially with long-ball threat Kyle Korver now hurting and Philly slipping inside of some hefty spreads lately (Sixers 4-2 last six on board thru March 28). Now that Philly has broken its 26-game losing streak, Sixers can playa bit more loose tonight.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:13 am
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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Siena at Fresno StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SienaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Well I took at stab at the Aztecs as a 3-1 dog on the ML versus Arizona, and San Diego State opened up an early lead, took a four point edge to the locker room at the half, but collapsed in the final five minutes. I don't regret it for a second, and while we didn't see the desired result, I think it was clear that the bookmakers weren't giving SDSU enough respect. I see a similar opportunity on Monday, with the Siena Saints playing Fresno State. The Saints have won seven of their last eight games overall, and they have won three straight on the road, including an upset over Quinnipiac. Siena isn't getting a lot of respect from the bookmakers here, and that seems to be a trend recently, as teams from the MAAC Conference have been grossly underestimated. We saw it when Manhattan pushed Louisville to the brink, and Iona lost by a single point as an enormous dog versus LA-Tech. The Bulldogs finished the season strong, but their final two games of the season came against the two worst teams in the Mountain West, and I think the Saints will give them a much stiffer challenge.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:15 am
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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio Spurs at Indiana PacersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Antonio SpursFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Meet the hottest team in the NBA, the Spurs. And they'll take the floor in Indiana Monday night with meaningful revenge on their minds from a 111-100 setback in San Antonio earlier this season back in November. The good news is the Spurs own a dominating 14-2 record in this series, including a 7-0 SUATS mark when seeking revenge. With Indiana mired in a 6-9 SU and 2-13 ATS losing funk, look for the Spurs to come up big in this payback tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Antonio.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:16 am
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Tony StoffoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nationals vs. MetsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Going to start the season with a solid release on the under in pitcher's friendly Citi Field as the Nationals and Mets match-up here. First off the pitching match-up of Stephen Strasburg and Dillon Gee indicates a lower scoring game is on tap as Strasburg has a lifetime 1.88 ERA against the Mets and added a Slider to his arsenal of pitches - So I can't see this still weak Mets Lineup doing much offensively in this spot - Plus I really liked what I saw from Gee in his last spring start while he threw 6 innings of no hit ball while striking out 7. But this isn't the only reason why I like the under here today - As it's so important to check the weather report for each game early in the season. For today at Citi Field the forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid 40's and the wind coming in from left center at 20 MPH. Add this all up and you can see how the under is the strong play here

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 7:17 am
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