Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
St. Louis vs. CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I have no hesitation fading Adam Wainwright at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. This park and this opponent has been a house of horrors for Wainwright in recent years, despite his Cy Young caliber overall campaigns.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
In two starts against the Reds after the All Star break last year, Wainwright got clobbered both times: eight innings pitched, 17 hits and 15 earned runs allowed. He notched only one win in four tries against Cincinnati for the season. In 2012, wainwright had an ERA above 5.00 versus the Reds, again, notching only a single win against a divisional rival.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
It’s surely worth noting that Wainwright got lit up at Arizona on opening day last year, allowing eleven hits and four runs in six innings of work. Wainwright went 0-3 in April 2012, finishing the month with a 7.32 ERA as the Cards lost all four of his starts.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Johnny Cueto threw seven innings of one run, three hit ball in his first start last year , and threw five quality starts in five tries at home during his injury riddled campaign. The Reds went 6-1 in his first seven starts in 2012, including a dominating effort with his first start, throwing seven innings of three hit, shutout ball. The Cardinals have hit just .181 against Cueto in six starts against him over the past two years. Wrong team favored here!
Stephen Nover
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City Royals +140
Kansas City is an improving team that went 41-25 down the stretch last season. The Royals also won the season series against Detroit last season and have upgraded this year with outfielder Norichika Aoki and second baseman Omar Infante, who played for Detroit last season.
The Tigers are being overvalued here with Justin Verlander on the mound. Detroit has lost 11 of Verlander's past 13 starts. Verlander had a down season last year and Detroit's bullpen remains highly suspect.
The Royals are very familiar with Verlander and have bothered him in the past with their speed. Only once in six starts did Verlander defeat Kansas City last season.
Royals starter James Shields had four quality starts in five outings versus Detroit last season giving up three runs in 15 innings when pitching at Comerica Park. The Royals have won 11 of Shields' last 12 road starts.
Shields can definitely hang with Verlander - if not outpitch him - and the Royals have the far superior bullpen.
Brandon Shively
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -147
The Marlins have a healthy Stanton in the lineup to go along with Christian Yelich and Ozuna. They also added new bats with Saltalamacchia and Garret Jones. This was a team that struggled to score runs last year, but I like their offense for opening day. Marisnick is sporting a .432 average in spring training and this gives the Marlins a solid outfield now. Jose Fernandez will take the mound tonight and this is a good thing as the Marlins are 7-0 in Fernandez's last 7 starts as a home favorite and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts overall. Fernandez had one tough outing this spring but other than that, he has still looked solid. As a matter of fact, I'm glad he got this bad outing out of the way. Fernandez faced Colorado twice last year as he won both games with a 16K/2BB ratio. DeLaRosa for Colorado has gotten beaten up badly all spring supported by a 5.40 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 5 starts. The Rockies bullpen is also a concern and I don't have DeLaRosa lasting more than 6 innings in this game. For the Rockies offense, this is still a team searching for identity outside of the 2-4 hitters with Cuddyer, Gonzalez, and Tulowitski. Cuddyer and Tulowitski both have had sub-par springs, and I feel the Marlins have the slightly better lineup ion this game along with the much better pitcher that is literally unbeatable at home. Let's lay the chalk with the Marlins against a regressing Colorado team that is 15-36 in their last 51 road games and 8-20 in their last 28 games vs. the NL East. Play on Miami Marlins on the Money Line
DAVE COKIN
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
SEATTLE MARINERS AT LOS ANGELES ANGELSVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: SEATTLE MARINERS +115FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Playing baseball at the start of the season is more about projection than actual data. While that is clearly not as reliable as having true numbers to work with, it’s also an opportunity to cash in playing on or against pitchers before the betting lines adjust.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
I’ve got a big red flag next to Jered Weaver right now. The telltale signs of a pitcher in decline are unmistakeable. Weaver looks to be on that slippery slope heading into the new season.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
There’s no question that the Angels righty knows what he’s doing, and that savvy will have to serve him well. The numbers simply don’t lie on Weaver. Three straight years with drops in velocity, and many of the peripheral stats are in lockstep with that fading profile.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
I don’t think Weaver is going to fall apart at the seams. He was never a big heat pitcher. His game has always been about location and changing speeds. But there comes a point where a pitcher cannot get by if his location is off, and I believe Weaver has reached that point. There’s just little room for error when the fastball arrives in the mid-80′s, and that’s about where Weaver is now.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Felix Hernandez is throwing here for Seattle, and King Felix is hoping for better fortune than he’s generally gotten at Anaheim. He’s up against what should be a prolific Angels offense, but Hernandez is usually very tough out of the gate, and I don’t see why that’s about to change. Hernandez is also gradually losing velocity, but he throws six different pitches and his location is actually getting better with age.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The Mariners look as though they’re going to be vulnerable to lefties this season. But I think they could be pretty effective offensively vs. righties, and with the heavy dose of injuries plaguing both Oakland and Texas, this team has a chance to make some real noise in the AL West if they can get started in decent form.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
There’s much more to beating the bases than just relying on starting pitching. But I feel as though there might be some value in going against Weaver if he’s still going to be priced as a top tier hurler. I like the idea of backing King Felix at plus money tonight, so the Mariners are the play.
Alex Smart
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers +4½
The headlines for this contest tell us a story about a San Antonio team that has won 17 straight and in their best form of the season. The Spurs are currently being adored by the media pundits as the flavor of the month. Meanwhile their hosts the Pacers, are performing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum and have not faired well of late losing 4 of their L/5 trips to the hardwood and have been a bad bet for some time, failing to cover in 22 of their L/26 tilts. Despite of the Pacers overall downward spiral, they have still performed well at home (33-4). The 4 losses they have accumulated in their L/5 have all come on the road. The Pacers need to get their mojo back, before the play offs, and this matchup could be the ultimate ego boost they need to move forward and get back their long lost momentum. So Im betting they "man up" as the out spoken Charles Barkley would say. With that said, I very much believe there is fair value on backing the motivated home team to cover in this spot.
Timothy Black
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -148
The Marlins are a perfect 7-0 in Fernandez's last 7 starts as a home favorite and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts overall! The Rockies are just 15-39 in their last 54 games as a road underdog and only 15-36 in their last 51 road games overall.
Ross BenjaminFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
St Louis vs. CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cincinnati +105FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Since the beginning of the 2011 season the Red starter Johnny Cueto is 4-2 in his 6 team starts versus the Cardinals posting a stellar 2.72 ERA. The Reds were exceptionally good at home last season, and look for more of the same in 2014. The Cardinals Adam Wainwright was an ineffective 1-3 in his team starts versus the Reds in 2013 with a lofty 7.77 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Any division home money line underdog of +100 or more that had a winning percentage of between .540 to .620 in the prior season, versus an opponent that had a winning record the season before, has gone 32-12 (72.7%) during the last 17 seasons.
Chase DiamondFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Kansas City +1½ -145FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This opening day Baseball game features the Royals at the Tigers. I really think the Royals will improve on last year and be one of the better teams in Baseball this year. Justin Verlander showed some chinks in his armor last season and I just don't think he is the dominant pitcher anymore. We are getting excellent value here taking +1.5 here and the Royals.The Tiger's are 2-11 in Verlander's last 13 starts and 5-17 in Verlander's last 22 starts as a favorite. Royals are a money making 11-1 in his last 12 starts on the road.
Will RogersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Washington vs. CharlotteFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CharlotteFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Today's free play is on a team that's been kind to me lately, the Charlotte Bobcats.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Here are my keys to the game:FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1. Looking to Rebound - The Bobcats are off an embarrassing loss in Orlando Friday night where they blew a double digit lead and fell in overtime. They got the weekend off to recover and now return home where they are a much better team. They are 21-16 SU and 21-14-2 ATS in Charlotte this year, including straight up wins in 9 of their last 11 here. They are also 8-3 ATS this season when playing with two days rest.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2. Ariza Injured - Washington's third leading scorer Trevor Ariza left Saturday's win over Atlanta with a groin injury and is questionable to play tonight. Either way, he won't be 100 percent.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
3. X-Factor - Charlotte holds its opponents to 94.6 points/game when playing at home. That should be the difference maker.
Jimmy Boyd
Milwaukee Brewers +105
Solid value here on the Brewers as a small dog at home against the Braves. Milwaukee is a team that I feel will be on the rise in 2014. The Brewers will send out veteran Yovani Gallardo against the youngster Julio Teheran. The Braves run of injuries to their starting staff has forced Teheran into the spotlight. Atlanta has already lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy for the season and Mike Minor is on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Teheran is coming off a great rookie year, but despite a strong spring he struggled out of the gate with a 5.08 ERA over his first 5 starts in 2013. I wouldn't be surprised if he suffered a similar slow start in 2014. Teheran's only start against the Brewers came on the road in June of last year. While he pitched well, the Braves lost the game 0-2.
Gallardo had one of his worst seasons of his career, but he finished strong over the last two months. That includes a September start against Atlanta, where he allowed just two runs on four hits over 7 innings. The victory improved Gallardo to 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in his career versus the Braves.
Milwaukee finished just 74-88 last year, but were a dominant 21-12 in their 33 games against the NL East. The Brewers are also 5-1 at home in their last six games versus the Braves.
Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Rangers / Phillies Under 8FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I don’t think the Phillies are going to do much damage with their bats this year and Texas has some new faces in the front of their lineup. Cliff Lee knows he has to be perfect for this team to win games this year. The wind will be blowing in today and I just don’t see much offense from either team. Take the Under 8 runs.
SPORTS WAGERSFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto +152 over TAMPA BAYFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
While R.A. Dickey's 2013 season wasn't a total bust, he certainly didn't meet the expectations the franchise had of a recent Cy Young winner. Now approaching 40 years old, have we already seen the best of him? On the contrary, Dickey might be the first ever 39-year-old with upside: Ongoing back and neck issues and an unfortunate 68% strand rate contributed to his poor first half (4.72 ERA), but the All-Star break rest produced a far more palatable 3.72 ERA in 2H. Dickey’s strikeout rate rose from 6.5 per nine to 7.7 per nine between 1H to 2H and remains above average for a knuckleballer. A 10% SwK% (swinging K rate) suggests he won't regress back to pre-2012 form. Reports on Dickey this offseason focus almost entirely on the resurgent speed of his "fast" knuckleball, which dipped from 77 mph to 75 in 2013, limiting his ability to keep hitters off balance with multiple offerings of the pitch. A return to that velocity could pay dividends, so long as he's able to limit fly-balls in the process. It’s also worth noting that Dickey has allowed just 27 hits in 165 AB’s against current Rays hitters for a BAA of .164. While some might think Dickey's best days are behind him, we see a 65%/6% dominant start/disaster start split in second half and profit potential.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
David Price had a touch of bad hit%/strand% luck and gopheritis (HR’s allowed) infected his 1st half before a triceps strain shelved him for six weeks. His skills remained strong, however, and were vintage upon his return. With rising command and low-3 xERAs, he's a better offense and bullpen away from consistently duplicating his 2012 line but that’s the problem with backing him at big prices. Tampa doesn’t figure to score many and facing a knuckleballer in the opener is a difficult assignment. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have combined to hit eight bombs against Price in a combined 71 AB’s against him. The Blue Jays offense could be as explosive as any team in in the majors and it might not take many runs here to get us to the cashier’s window. The Blue Jays were way overvalued a year ago to open the season amidst all the hype but there is none of that to open this year and that makes the undervalued Blue Jays very worthy of backing.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Seattle +115 over L.A. ANGELSFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Felix Hernandez has maintained elite skills and surface stats for five consecutive seasons. In fact, his strikeout rate over that period has continued to increase and his control has improved during the last two seasons. But there are some reasons for concern. His four-seam fastball velocity has declined in three straight seasons and now sits at 92 mph. Hernandez hasn't been affected by that decline because his sinker has become a swing-and-miss pitch. His swinging strike % on that pitch the last three seasons: 4.6%, 6.6%, 9.6%. He has a 10%+ swinging strike % on an amazing five separate pitches. The concern here continues to be his workload. Only Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia have thrown more innings and pitches from 2008 to 2013 than Hernandez and that workload has piled up at an early age. That said, we’re not concerned about what happens in June, July or August. Right now, Hernandez is fresh so we’ll keep buying the skills because he is the straight goods.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
A broken bone in his left elbow cost Jered Weaver the better part of the first two months a year ago. Upon his return, he had just one real disaster start in 22 starts and once again bested xERA by a wide margin, as his hit%, and homerun/fly-ball continued to cooperate. If you’ve been following us for a couple of years than you may recall that Jered Weaver has been high on our fade list and nothing has changed. Weaver’s fastball velocity has dipped three straight years and it’s only a matter of time before it starts affecting his ability to outpitch these skills. Weaver is profiled as a big risk due to his declining four-seam fastball velocity and corresponding dip in strikeouts. Check out his four-seam fastball velocity trend now in MPH over the past four seasons: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.5. If he had a groundball pitch in his profile, he could re-invent himself now that he's in his 30s. But that isn't the case. He has posted a near-50% fly-ball rate in four of the past five seasons and his line drive rate trend suggests that he is being hit harder and harder: 16%, 19%, 21%, 22%. Weaver has been living an extremely charmed life because his skills are very average at best and as a result, his success cannot last. Weaver is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and there is likely going to be huge profits fading him until the truth about his average skills are exposed.
Frank JordanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana PacersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Antonio Spurs -4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Antonio is the top team in the league at 57-16 and is on the 17 game winning streak. San Antonio is 28-8 on the road this year as the head to Indiana and are 23-6 against the East. Indiana is the top team in the East with a 52-22 record and have dropped their last two games since a big win over Miami. Indiana is just 5-5 over the last 10 games over all but at home playing well with a 33-4 record. Against the West Indiana is 17-11 and won at San Antonio back in December 111-100 as George led the way with 28 points. In this possible NBA Finals preview look for the Spurs to make it an eighteenth straight victory to continue the Pacer woes even in Indiana. Play San Antonio
Marc Lyle
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City Royals +1½ -150
I am seeing a ton of value on this play. Shields pitched very well last season vs Detroit and I see Verlander way over valued in this spot. I think KC can win this game outright so getting runs is a no brainer.
Dennis Macklin
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -2½
The T-Wolves have won four of their last five home games but they trail Memphis by 6.5 games with 10 to play for the Western Conference eight hole so they are basically toast and playing out the string. The K-Loves face a Clipper team that is hitting on all cylinders winning 15 of 17 and still with an outside shot of running down the OKC for the two spot in the West. The Clippers have beaten the Wolves eight straight times. Urgency and history favors the visitor and the price is certainly cheap enough. Take the Clippers.