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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 31

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Steve Janus

Indiana Pacers +4½

The Pacers should not be an underdog at home to any team in the NBA. San Antonio is simply being overvalued here because of their 17-game winning streak and Indiana having lost 4 of 5. The key thing to note is that all 4 of those losses came on the road. The Pacers have won 4 straight at home and are a dominant 33-4 on the season.

Road favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 59-102 (36.6%) ATS since 1996. We also see that underdogs (INDIANA) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 10:33 am
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Bryan Power

Cleveland vs. Oakland
Pick: Cleveland

A playoff team last year, few are giving the Tribe much hope of repeating that achievement in 2014.

But I can see them getting off to a good start this season at the expense of the Oakland A's, another team I expect to win fewer games then they did a season ago. In addition to having a dumpy stadium, the Athletics traditionally have not fared well on Opening Day, tying a MLB record by starting each of the previous nine seasons with a loss.

Because of injuries to the front-end of the rotation, Oakland is forced to give the baseball to Sonny Gray tonight. Not that Gray is a bad pitcher, but he only has 10 career starts under his belt and it's not a good sign when you're already forced to shuffle your rotation around before the season starts.

Then, there is the fact the A's lineup may not match up very well vs. Indians starter Justin Masterson. Among all American League pitchers, Masterson had the lowest opponents' batting average when throwing a slider on the final pitch of an at bat (.107). Oakland was fourth worst in the league LY when facing a slider (.201) and only two players in the everyday lineup hit over .300 against that particular pitch.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 11:33 am
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Tony Karpinski

San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers +4½

This San Antonio team that has won 17 straight and in their best form of the season and the Pacers are off a terrible game against the Cavs last night. The Spurs are currently being adored by the media pundits as the team to beat but Indiana is very good at home. The Pacers need to get their mojo back, before the play offs, and this matchup could be the ultimate ego boost they need to move forward and get back their long lost momentum. Indiana will be motivated at home and I like their big men and the matchups here for Indiana to pull the upset.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 11:34 am
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Michael Alexander

Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: New Orleans Pelicans -3½

The Kings are 2-8 over their last 10 road games with the victories coming against Milwaukee and Philadelphia – the league’s worst two teams. Sacramento is 0-2 as it enters the finale of a three-game road excursion and has lost three straight overall. The Pelicans won five consecutive games before being outclassed by the Spurs. Following the game against the Kings, New Orleans enters a stretch in which five of six games will be on the road.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 11:34 am
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Jack Jones

Los Angeles Angels -121

This is an excellent price to back the Los Angeles Angels at home in their 2014 opener with ace Jered Weaver on the mound. I look for them to take care of business against Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners to start the new season 1-0.

The Angels were expected to be a World Series contender last year, but they fell flat on their faces. Weaver could not stay healthy, which was a big reason. He still went 11-8 with a 3.27 ERA last year and comes into 2014 healthy. With expectations lowered, I look for the Angels to bounce back this season and to contend in the AL West now that some of the focus has been shifted away from them.

Weaver has dominated Seattle throughout his career, going 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 17 starts. While Hernandez is one of the top starters in the league, he has had his fair share of struggles against the Angels. The right-hander is 8-13 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 35 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Angels are 16-3 in their last 19 home games with a total set from 6 to 6.5. Weaver is 18-4 against the money line in home games with a money line of +125 to -125 in his career. Weaver is 31-7 against the money line at home against division opponents all-time. Los Angeles is 10-1 in Weaver's last 11 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. Bet the Angels Monday.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 11:34 am
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SPORTS WAGERS

Florida/NEW JERSEY Over 5

It’s not often that a total of 5 is available when two really poor goaltenders hook up but that’s precisely the situation here. Indeed the Panthers are an offensively challenged group but the chances of Martin Brodeur throwing a shutout are slim and if the Panthers can somehow muster 1 or 2 goals, we see the worst case being a push because Dan Ellis may even be worse than Brodeur. Ellis has a save % of .888. On Saturday night against the Habs, Ellis faced 18 shots and allowed four goals for a save % of .833. He’s posted save percentages of .861, .855, .879, .857, .857, .769, .800, .821, .850 and .833 in 10 of the 18 games he’s appeared in this season. Ellis appeared in relief in three of the other eight games he’s appeared in this season. This guy is pure garbage on a nightly basis.

The Devils have gone under the total in four straight and they are always a risk to go under because they don’t allow many shots on net. In fact, the Devils have allowed 27 shots on net or fewer in five straight games and they are very likely going to take that same approach tonight. Still, it’s not a stretch to expect four goals or more out of them tonight against Dan Ellis. These two played a 5-3 and 6-2 games in two of the past three times they’ve met and that’s when the Devils held the Panthers to 22 and 13 shots on net respectively. At the end of the day, when an opportunity arises to go over five in a game in which Dan Ellis is in net, we’re on board for it.

Pass NBA & CBB

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 11:58 am
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Harry Bondi

INDIANA (+4.5) over San Antonio

How can we be on a Pacers team that has lost 4 of its last 5 including a horrendous loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers 90-76 yesterday? Because, as we often say here, no team is as good or as bad as they looked in there last game. Indiana beat Miami at home in its last “step up” game and they will do the same against San Antonio tonight. We are well aware that the Spurs are as hot as Harry Bondi having won 17 games in a row but the Pacers play defense as well as anybody in the NBA and that will be the difference tonight. Take the home dog.

 
Posted : March 31, 2014 12:07 pm
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