Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 4

David Chan

Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Pick: Kansas

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech is 10-17 SU overall, and just 1-7 on the road. It's coming off a 72-63 win over TCU on the 2nd.

Kansas is 25-4 SU overall, and 16-1 at home. It's coming off a 91-65 win over West Virginia on the 2nd. Ben McLemore had 36 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Texas Tech is just 6-12 ATS as an underdog this year, and 2-6 ATS on the road.

Note that Kansas is 9-6 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest, and 9-7 ATS vs. conference opponents.

Pick Analysis

These teams played on January 13th, and Kansas would hammer Texas Tech 60-46. The Red Raiders continue to struggle in this matchup, and I expect an even bigger lopsided affair this time around. This is a big game for the home side, which can not afford to let up even a tiny bit as the regular season winds down, as take note that the Jayhawks are tied atop the Big 12 and in a real dog fight with Kansas State. Texas Tech has lost 28 in a row to Top 25 teams, and that streak of futility gets extended tonight; consider a second look at Kansas in this one!

Marc Lawrence

New York vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

The young Cavs host the Knicks at Quicken Loans Arena on the North coast Monday night with revenge on Cleveland's mind from a 103-102 loss suffered in New York on December 15. From our history book we learn the Cavaliers are 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS in this series, including 6-2 ATS in this floor. With Cleveland off a 16-point home loss and the Knicks off a mighty meeting with Miami yesterday, we're on Uncle Drew's crew here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Art Aronson

New Jersey vs. Toronto
Pick: New Jersey

New Jersey is 10-6-5 this year, but just 4-4-3 on the road. The Devils will be eager to atone for a 4-3 OT loss at Buffalo on the 2nd. In fact the Devils have now lost four straight, and a fifth would represent their worst slide in two years (New Jersey has routinely performed well in this position though, going 13-10 after three or more consecutive losses). Toronto is 13-9 overall, but just 4-5 at home. Most recently it's coming off a 5-4 win at the Islanders on the Thursday (Toronto though is just 2-4 this year after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest). Veteran goaltender Martin Brodeur is out, and backup Johan Hedberg has uncharacteristically struggled in replacement for the Devils. But here's a great opportunity for this underachieving visiting team to get untracked, and for us to take advantage of what I feel is a great line.

Jimmy Boyd

Texas Tech +24½

Conference play is hard on teams, even top tier teams like Kansas. You should always play against favorites of 20 points or more like Kansas when they are off a win against a conference rival. This system is 95-59 (61.7%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup also falls into a system to play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a home loss. This scenario happens a lot in college basketball and over the last five seasons we have seen an 809-615 (56.8%) success rate. Those numbers tighten up to 192-130 (59.6%) when the teams are playing with one or less days of rest.

Playing on only one day of rest, the Jayhawks are in a situation where they may take their foot off the gas against Texas Tech. The season is winding down and Kansas is ready for a few days of rest before they begin to prepare for the Big 12 conference tournament.

Rob Vinciletti

Baylor -1½

Baylor has won 17 of 19 vs losing teams and has a solid 63 RPI Ranking while playing the 29th toughest schedule in the country. They won by 5 here last season beat Texas at home earlier in the season despite shooting just 35%. Baylor is 5-1 this season after shooting less than 40% from the field and Texas is 5-14 vs winning teams and has lost 14 of 17 vs top 100 RPI Teams this year. Texas has not played too well on defense of late allowing opponents to shoot over 50% in back to back games for the first time this season. Look for Baylor to emerge with a win and cover.

Ray Monohan

Baylor -1½

I am not sure you can trust Baylor the way they keep letting you down but they are the more talented team and the more desperate team too. They probably can’t afford to lose another game this season and definitely need this one to get right before a home battle against Kansas that will probably decide their season. They are 6-4 ATS on the road this season and beat Texas already once this season - in overtime at home. The Bears are 4-0 ATS against the Longhorns of late and 17-5 ATS against teams with a losing record. If they play well there is no way the Longhorns can stay with them.

Jim Feist

Charlotte at Portland
Pick: Under

The Charlotte Hornets are in the unenviable position of playing back-to-back days. Charlotte was humiliated at Sacramento on Sunday and now has to play an even tougher Blazers club on Monday. Sunday's contest was the second in a row with no offense out of the Cats, having scored 68 points on Friday and just 83 on Sunday. The Cats have now gone UNDER in nine of their last 11 contests, mainly because they can't score. The Blazers surely aren't one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, allowing over 100 points quite regularly. However, they can play defense against tired, weak opponents. And, that's just what we get here on Monday. Six of the last nine meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER. Moreover, in four of their last six in this spot they have gone UNDER. Don't expect the Blazers to waste a lot of energy here on Monday as this one should be pretty easy.

Dave Cokin

Baylor at Texas
Pick: Texas

Baylor and Texas collide tonight in Austin, and this sure looks like two teams traveling in somewhat opposite directions right now. The Longhorns have been tabbed as a disappointment this season by some, but I think that's a bit ridiculous. They're an incredibly young team and they had to endure playing most of the season without their most talented player. Texas has improved lately and I like the guts the team has shown in a few recent contests. On the other hand, there's little I can say that would qualify as positive about Baylor. The Bears have a very talented roster, but they're just a flat out dumb team at times. They have also played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament by losing four of their last five. The Bears are still capable of climbing back into the conversation with a win here and against Kansas, plus a run in the Big 12 tourney. But based on the most recent performances, that's pretty difficult to envision right now. On paper, Baylor ought to win this game. But this is not a team I'm going to endorse currently, and I can see the Longhorns squeezing out a satisfying home win. Texas plus the points gets the nod.

SPORTS WAGERS

Anaheim -105 over PHOENIX

OT included. In an unusual scheduling spot that sees the Ducks and Phoenix playing three games in succession against one another, we’ll come right back on Anaheim here. These two clubs met on Saturday night in Phoenix and will meet again in Anaheim on Wednesday. On Saturday, as a -115 favorite, the Coyotes won 5-4 in OT after trailing 4-3 midway through the third period. Steve Sullivan netted the tying goal with 6:29 remaining in regulation and then scored the lone goal in the shootout. That was Anaheim’s fifth game in seven days and they clearly ran out of gas in the third period, getting outshot 17-7 and eventually blowing a late lead. This time around, a rested Ducks’ squad, that have won six straight on one day’s rest and that is 12-2-1 since the beginning of February will be better suited to finish the deal.

The Coyotes are a pesky bunch. However, like we mentioned on Saturday, Mike Smith has not been sharp all year and the team in front of him cannot keep scoring five goals a game to bail him out. Smith and the Coyotes have allowed four goals or more in four straight games and they’ve also allowed four or more to the Ducks in four of the past five games they’ve met. The superior Ducks once again get the call in a more favorable spot than Saturday night.

Pass NBA & NCAAB

Jeff Benton

Tonight's freebie is the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.

On the surface this appears to be a big number to give to a team that is 8 games over .500, but remember that Atlanta is playing the last of 6 in a row on the road, and it also happens to be the third road game in 4 nights for the Hawks who did lose by a point yesterday at the Lakers.

Denver has been idle since their Friday win at home over mighty Oklahoma City, as the Nuggets have now won their last 4 games while going 3-0-1 against the spread in those 4 wins.

The Nuggets have made the Pepsi Center their fortress this season, going 25-3 straight up and they have also gone a money-making 19-9 against the spread in those home games this year.

Atlanta did win the first meeting this year at home against Denver, but the Nuggets had won and covered in the previous 4 series meetings prior to their December setback at the Philips Arena.

Going to lay it with the Nuggets to pull away from a road-weary Hawks team tonight.

3* DENVER

Brad Wilton

For Monday, going with Cincinnati plus the points as they play at Louisville.

Bearcats come in with a 20-9 mark, but they have dropped 5 of their last 7 games overall, so one would think that Cincy needs a strong showing tonight if they wish to get off the fence as far as making it into the Big Dance is concerned.

The good news is, Cincy has had Louisville's number, as the Bearcats have won outright in 3 of the last 4 meetings, and 5 of the last 9 overall.

Louisville is just 5-9 against the spread on their home court this year, while Cincinnati brings in an 8-4 road spread mark for the season. Also, the road team in this series is 6-2 versus the line the past 8 meetings.

Take the points as Cincy finds the back-door.

5* CINCINNATI

David Banks

Miami / Minnesota Over 196

The Miami Heat (43-14, 30-27 ATS) overcame a 16-point deficit to beat the Knicks Sunday and make it 14 wins in a row, and they look to make it 15 vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves (20-36, 34-25 ATS) at the Target Center in Minnesota Monday at 9:05 ET on NBA TV. LeBron James filled out the stat sheet as usual vs. the Knicks with 29 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists, three steals and one blocked shot, helping Miami avenge two earlier losses to New York. Minnesota is coming off of a 109-94 loss at Portland on Saturday, and this team has simply been undermanned since Kevin Love re-fractured his hand back on January 3rd. The shaky Minnesota defense makes the Timberwolves unlikely candidates to slow down the Miami Express.

The Miami 14-game winning steak began when James began his historic streak where he became the first player in NBA history to score at least 30 points and shoot at least 60 percent from the field in six straight games, and over the entire 14-game streak, James is averaging 28.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 8.3 assists. James is now shooting an impressive 56.3 percent over the entire season, helping propel the Heat to a league leading 49.6 percent shooting percentage as a team overall. Miami also ranks second the three-point shooting at 39.3 percent and the end result has been a fifth best 103.7 points per game. Now the Heat have not cared much about the regular season since James arrived two seasons ago, as they are in fact only 101-103-1 ATS since then during the regular year. They have successfully flipped the switch when it mattered most once the playoffs began in both seasons, but this is now the best regular season stretch for Miami since LeBron came to South Beach, and the Heat now find themselves tied in the loss column with the team with the best record in the NBA in the 46-14 San Antonio Spurs, pending the Spurs' result Sunday night.

The Timberwolves have had trouble competing without Love, going 5-21 straight up since he went down, and things have gotten worse as of late with Minnesota winning only twice in the last 11 games, and those two wins coming vs. a Philadelphia team that cannot score and a Cleveland team that cannot play defense. The Timberwolves have shown nothing to indicate that they can hang with a team of Miami's caliber, especially on the defensive end. For the entire season, Minnesota is ranked 16th in points against at 97.9 per game, 23rd in field goal percentage allowed and 20th in three-point defense. The defense has gotten considerably worse in the 26 games since Love went down though, allowing 100.4 points per game in that time, and it is allowing a disgusting 107.2 points per game on a bloated 49.1 percent shooting over the last five contests. All the Wolves have to do now is contain the best shooting team in the league with the hottest player on the planet.

The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, and Minnesota is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games overall. The Heat are on an 8-3 ATS run overall and Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games vs. the Northwest Division.

Bruce Marshall

Miami vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

Potential flat spot for Miami? Maybe so, considering Sunday’s revenge-fueled encounter vs. Knicks and fact that Heat, despite a 14-game SU win streak, have been prone to letdowns in the last eight days, as evidenced by narrow escapes and non-covers vs. sub-.500 Cavs and Kings. If Miami doesn’t bring its “A” game, can Minnesota capitalize? Maybe so, as T-wolves were at least within sight of Heat at AA Arena on Dec. 16, despite getting little help from then-healthy F Kevin Love (who scored only 11). Love is still sidelined, of course, but Rick Adelman at least has regained services of 6-9 Andrei Kirilenko, who scored 22 in first meeting, and remember that T-wolves had yet to welcome back G Ricky Rubio from his knee injury rehab when teams met before Christmas. And Miami no automatic play as DD chalk this season (7-11 vs. number).

Wunderdog

Atlanta at Denver
Pick: Denver -10

The Denver Nuggets have become the top home team in the NBA. They own a decisive advantage in the high altitude and have used it to go 25-3 on the season. The Nuggets have won ten straight games here and their last 12 attempts at covering double-digits has been a successful 8-4 ATS. Atlanta has been a pedestrian road team where they are 15-15 on the season. This will also be their sixth straight game on the road. In addition, having played yesterday, they are going to be weary in the high altitude against a very good team that likes to play fast. The Nuggets have covered six of their last seven here and will put the Hawks away late in this one. Play on Denver.