Jesse Schule
Toronto vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
The Raptors saw their playoff hopes take a serious hit when they lost in overtime to Milwaukee, and I played the Bucks in that game and got very fortunate to cover. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, I underestimated the Raptors will to win, and their ability to compete without Rudy Gay. That being said, I am going to right back against Toronto in tonight's game at Golden State.
After the loss to Milwaukee, the Raptors players and coaches told reporters that they will not quit, and that their push for the playoffs is not over. Well ..what do you expect them to say? The reality is, it doesn't take a genius to realize that they don't have any realistic hope of making the post-season. I think Toronto will suffer a let down with the realization that they came so close in Milwaukee, but eventually saw their season end in that overtime period.
With that, there is no reason for Rudy Gay to play hurt, and we may see the coaching staff begin experimenting with the lineup. Terrence Ross could see some more minutes, and Andrea Bargnani (despite his defensive shortcomings) may be left on the court a little longer, much to delight of opposing big men.
Both teams are playing in a 3-in-4 situation, but fatigue is likely going to hurt the Raptors more, with Rudy Gay hurting, and little left to play for. The Warriors have their eyes on the playoffs, and he way Stephen Curry is playing, they could be a dangerous team moving forward.
Sean Murphy
Utah vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
The Jazz have owned the Bucks, taking each of the last four meetings in this series, but I don't expect that streak to continue on Monday night. The Bucks are at full strength right now, and they're playing some pretty good basketball, having reeled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. They catch the Jazz coming off a 30-point rout of the Bobcats on Saturday, but it's important to note that Charlotte is one of the league's worst teams, and is playing some of its worst basketball of the season right now. The Jazz haven't enjoyed much success on the road this season, posting a 10-19 SU record. Note that during their four-game winning streak against the Bucks, only one of those wins came in Milwaukee, and that was two-and-a-half years ago. The Bucks know that a win is paramount tonight, as they'll head out on the road for a tough trip to the west coast, beginning with a game against the Clippers in L.A. on Wednesday. I expect to see Milwaukee to bring it's 'A' game tonight, as bench scoring proves to be the difference in a convincing victory.
Sam Martin
Texas Tech at Kansas
Prediction: Kansas
This is a huge line for Kansas to cover, but there is still line value in laying this big number and we'll go ahead and back the Jayhawks tonight at home against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have been blown out numerous times this year, so this big number isn't quite big enough to scare us off. Texas Tech lost by 20 points in each of their last two road games (vs. Kansas State and Iowa State), and after pulling their first win since January 23rd (beat TCU as a 5.5-point home favorite), they are now in a motivational letdown spot as they take on a Kansas team that has just put up final scores of 108 and 91 points in their last two games. Kansas had no problem covering a similar 23-point spread a week and a half ago at home against TCU, and we look for the Red Raiders to give up early as this one no doubt ends badly for the visitor.
Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
While we fully expect Denver to win this game at home against Atlanta, we'll gladly take the points with the Hawks as the visitor has more than enough fire power offensively to keep up with the high-scoring Nuggets. Denver is coming off a tough-fought two-point win (as a two-point home underdog) against Oklahoma City, and we're not convinced Denver will be completely focused in this obvious letdown spot. Atlanta has been solid offensively of late, shooting 50% or higher in six of their last 11 games, and only once since January 14th did the Hawks lose a road game by 10 or more points (11-point loss at Indiana). Atlanta just missed a big win yesterday with a one-point loss against the Lakers, but we're not afraid of the lack of rest noting the Hawks are a profitable 22-9 ATS playing on back-to-back days. Atlanta keeps up offensively as Denver wins this game close.
Freddy Wills
Minnesota +9½
This is the perfect time for the Heat to relax after winning 14 in a row and having to play their last two games against two playoff teams. They flexed their muscles yesterday literally and came back from a 16 point deficit in New York. James is nursing a minor knee injury and will plays, but just much effort will this team give? Their starting 5 combined for over 160 minutes and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when they play the next day. Minnesota meanwhile has not been awful at home going 13-14 on the year. They are banged up right now, but they should get up for this game and while they have not been winning games at home they are sticking around and I see them sticking around here.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Bucks -4½
The surging Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as only a 4.5-point home favorite over the struggling Utah Jazz tonight. Utah is one of the worst road teams in the league at 10-19 SU & 10-18-1 ATS on the season. It should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers because of it.
That's especially the case with how poorly the Jazz are playing of late. They have lost three of their last four with their lone victory coming over the lowly Charlotte Bobcats. They have been playing without leading scorers and rebounders Al Jefferson (17.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG) and Paul Millsap (15.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) of late. Each is questionable to return tonight, and I like the Bucks to cover this number either way.
Milwaukee comes in playing well having won and covered in three straight. What's most impressive about this 3-game winning streak is the fact that two of those wins have come on the road at Dallas (95-90) as a 5.5-point underdog, and at Houston (110-107) as a 9-point dog. This team is playing arguably its best basketball of the season right now.
The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Jazz are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Uta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Bucks Monday.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati +11
This is a solid spot to jump on the Bearcats as a double-digit road underdog, as they catch Louisville in a good spot. The Cardinals are coming off a huge 58-53 road win over Syracuse on Saturday and could find themselves struggling to get motivated on such a short notice against a very hungry Cincinnati team. Louisville could also be looking ahead to Saturday's regular season finale against Notre Dame, as they haven't forgot about that 101-104 5OT loss at Notre Dame back in early February. The Cardinals are an impressive 13-1 at home this season, but they are just 5-9 ATS at home. Cincinnati is a respectable 8-4 S.U. & ATS on the road and are simply catching too many points in a game involving two very good defensive teams.
Dave Price
Denver Nuggets -10
This may seem like a lot of points, but the Hawks find themselves in a tough spot. This will be their third road game in four days and their sixth in 10 days. This stretch would be tough enough to tackle at home, let alone on the road with all the travel mixed in. I think it's safe to say the Nuggets, who have had the last two days off, will be the fresher team. In addition to Atlanta's level of fatigue, it will likely be hard for the Hawks to bounce back emotionally from last night's heartbreaking loss to the Lakers. They battled their way back from 16 down only to come up a point short. Denver has been deadly at home where it has won 10 in a row by an average of 11.5 points. It has also won 5 straight at home versus the Hawks. Atlanta has struggled against explosive offensive teams this season, going 0-7 ATS versus teams that average 103.0 points or more per game. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
Cleveland Cavaliers +3
It's going to be tough for the Knicks to pick themselves back up off the floor after blowing a 16-point lead in yesterday's loss to the Heat. The Knicks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. While this will be New York's third game in four days, the Cavs have had two days of rest so they should be the fresher side. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the Cavs.
Dennis Macklin
North Carolina A&T -2
Kinda slim pickins on an abbreviated Big Monday card so we'll head to the extra board for a MEAC matchup between Savannah State and North Carolina A&T. Both teams are mid-table and not likely to make any noise in their tournament where NC Central or Norfolk State should prevail. Savannah State (-6) won the first go around 56-49 two weeks ago despite turning the ball over an incredible 27 times. Maybe it's not that incredible as the Tigers lead the nation in turnovers giving it away on 28% of their possessions. At 17-12, SSU must have some players or the MEAC must be way down. The 14-15 Aggies are having a disappointing year considering they brought back a team with four starters that ranked No.7 in the country in terms of returning experience. Tonight is senior night for the A&T guys and thinking that the homies will come up with a top effort and cover this small number in their final game in front of the home folk. North Carolina A&T 58-50.
Don Best Consensus
Hawks at Nuggets
Pick: Over
The over is 7-3 in Atlanta's last 10 games vs. NBA Northwest opponents. Over is also 11-2 in Denver's last 13 home games, 20-6 in Denver's last 26 overall games. In the head-to-head battles between the Hawks and the Nuggets, the over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Dave Essler
Texas +2
It's always hard to fade a team in their last home game, even a team like Texas with hardly any upper-classmen. I do realize that Baylor still has SOME NCAA Tournament aspirations, but in reality finishing up at home against Kansas, a likely loss, with a .500 record and no good road wins, isn't going to do it. And the fact that Baylor has only beaten TCU and West Virginia (barely) on the road really makes me question why they are favored, so we will gladly take the possession. If Texas wins this game they have a chance to win two consecutive games for the first time since December, and one of THOSE wins was at home over North Carolina, so they've got the capability to beat anyone in Austin. They took Baylor of overtime in Waco, and the Bears went to the line an astonishing 45 times, to less than 20 (if memory serves me correct) and on the road, almost no matter how well they play, the home team IS going to get more calls. In the previous game, Texas actually dominated inside, so if it weren't for the FT's there's simply no way Baylor would have won THAT game, let alone here. Texas had more assists (consider it was Pierre Jackson, too) and as many rebounds. Point being, this is not as much about revenge than it is a simple matter of Texas not only knows how to play Baylor, but feels they should have already beaten them. In the Longhorns last home game, they came back from a million down to beat Oklahoma State in overtime, so regardless of what the score is throughout this game, the Longhorns' confidence should be high. Texas does have the size to compete with the Bears, and Baylor's interior defense is simply soft, IMO. Texas has the 3rd and 4th ranked defensive efficiency numbers in the Conference with respect to three and two point FG %, and has played the third toughest Big-12 SOS as compared to Baylor's 9th toughest. That in and of itself is enough for me to take a home underdog.
Charlie Scott
Cincinnati vs. Louisville
Play: Over
Big East games on Big Monday had a run of Unders until last Monday.I like playing Over low Totals with 2 Teams that will run when they have the opportunity and each have capable scorers. This Total should be 126-127 Minimum.
Harry Bondi
ORLANDO (+9.5) over New Orleans
We hate to bet bad teams but we love to bet value and that is what we have with Orlando tonight. As bad as the Magic are, there is no way they should be almost 10 point underdogs to New Orleans. We had the Hornets over Detroit as your FREE play winner last Friday because the hornets were undervalued but the market has overreacted to the Magic's recent struggles. Hornets are still not at full strength with Anthony Davis still out and Jason Smith also out with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Take the points with Orlando.
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati +10
I have been very high on this Cincinnati team. They have a good backcourt and can rebound the ball very well. That is a perfect recipe for winning in March. This is the game that will determine if they are ready to make their run and make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. I think this is too many points this late in the year. The Bearcats could really use a quality win on the road and will keep this game close. Take Cincinnati.
Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5
Miami got a big win yesterday, but they did not look sharp. Its tough to keep winning when you set a franchise record of consecutive wins in a row. Teams go through their ups and downs during the season. I think the best thing for Miami would be to lose this streak soon and get back to normal. Lebron James will have his knee examined and I think tonight would be a great game for the Heat to sit him to get some rest. Winning streaks are great for fans and sports center, but in reality teams just want to be healthy going into the playoffs. This is a good money line play right now at +425. If Lebron does end up playing you can always bet the other side, but this line will drop if he is ruled out. Take Minnesota.
Chris Jordan
My free pick is on an easy college basketball total for tonight, as I love the Over in the Big 12 showdown between Baylor and Texas.
Anyone else see how tough-luck the Baylor Bears lost the other day, to the Kansas State Wildcats? If you didn't, read up on it. It was quite excruciating, and them Bears are going to be fired up for this game in Austin, Texas against the Longhorns.
And while Baylor (17-12, 8-8 Big 12) is barely clinging to its fading tournament hopes, and knows damn well it must come out of the Frank Erwin Center with a win to stay in the selection committee's discussion, the Longhorns (13-16, Big 12 5-11) would love nothing more than to win on Senior Night and close the regular season home slate with a monumental win.
Thus, we're going to see both teams going at it strong, offensively.
I know this has easily been coach Rick Barnes’ worst season at Texas, so it's easy to assume the Longhorns will be at their best tonight. They come in Over runs of 4-0 at home and 11-3 against winning teams. The Bears, they've gone over in 12 of 15 with a suitcase in hand.
Finally, the Over is on a 7-2 run in this series.
2♦ TEXAS