Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday March, 5

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's
The Gaels look to take advantage of a Gonzaga team that is coming off a 77-58 win over BYU and is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU victory. St. Mary's is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (+3)

Game 519-520: VCU vs. Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 62.062; Drexel 64.495
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 2 1/2; 115
Vegas Line: VCU by 2 1/2; 118
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (+2 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Arkansas State vs. North Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 53.885; North Texas 56.037
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 2; 131
Vegas Line: North Texas by 1 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-1 1/2); Over

Game 523-524: Western Kentucky vs. Denver (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 51.387; Denver 61.481
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10; 127
Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick Denver (-8 1/2); Under

Game 525-526: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 42.597; Eastern Michigan 47.772
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 5; 112
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2; 108
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+8 1/2); Over

Game 527-528: Ball State at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 49.246; Western Michigan 55.205
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 6; 137
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 4; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-4); Over

Game 529-530: Miami (OH) at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 52.097; Toledo 52.039
Dunkel Line: Even; 122
Vegas Line: Toledo by 3; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3); Under

Game 531-532: Central Michigan at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 46.184; Bowling Green 61.018
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 15; 122
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 11 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-11 1/2); Under

Game 533-534: Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 64.791; St. Mary's 64.771
Dunkel Line: Even; 139
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 3; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (+3); Over

Game 535-536: Fairfield vs. Loyola-MD (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 54.326; Loyola-MD 53.964
Dunkel Line: Even; 125
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 2 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+2 1/2); Over

Game 537-538: Western Carolina vs. Davidson (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.852; Davidson 64.735
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 14; 141
Vegas Line: Davidson by 12 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-12 1/2); Under

Game 541-542: Western Illinois vs. Oral Roberts (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 52.891; Oral Roberts 61.199
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 8 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 8; 115
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (-8); Over

Game 543-544: Southern Utah vs. South Dakota State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 50.859; South Dakota State 61.600
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 10 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 12 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+12 1/2); Under

Marc Lawrence

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Were back on the Mavs tonight as they look to avenge a defeat at home to the Thunder before the All-Star break. The series host has not earned the most when these two tangle as the visitor has cashed at a 10-2 ATS clip of late. OKC has also fouled out at home versus Dallas, stumbling to a not-so-thunderous 4-12 SU and 3-12-1 ATS mark, including 0-4 SU and ATS when the Lone Star boys ride into town looking to exact a measure of revenge. No, it hasnt been for the Mavericks to defend last yea?s NBA championship especially with an overhauled roster, an abbreviated training camp and injuries to Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. But even temperamental owner Mark Cuban admitted that the team?s 21 wins heading into the All-Star break was a better record than I thought we?d have. Our database tells us Dallas should also improve on its current 9-7 ATS road record at press time: defending NBA champs are a moneymaking 31-16-1 ATS as road dogs with same-season revenge from a loss of 10 or fewer points. With the Thunder owning the best record in the West and catching all the ink, look for the cream to rise here tonight. Dallas. Outright. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dallas.

Rob Vinciletti

Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks are 8-1 of late vs Edmonton and have taken a pair from them this season and have outscored them 9-0 in the progress. The Ducks have won 10 of the last 13 in the 2nd half vs losing teams and are 22 games over .500 the last 2+ seasons in the second half. The Oilers have lost 22 of the last 30 in March and 47 of the last 60 after scoring 1 or less. Worried about Edmonton Revenge? Don't be. They have lost 50 of the last 67 when playing with revenge. In games on the road this season where the total is 5,5 Edmonton is a lousy 5-16. Had the line been lower we would have made this a unit rated play. However its tonight's free play instead.

MATT FARGO

Indiana @ Chicago
PICK: Chicago -7

Chicago has won six straight games including the last three that all came on the road. After a big win in San Antonio on Thursday, the Bulls did not letdown as they won in Cleveland and then last night in Philadelphia. Playing last night is no issue as Chicago has won 10 of 12 games when playing with no rest including all four when going from an away game to a home game. They have covered seven of those contests and are also riding a perfect 4-0 ATS streak against teams with a winning record.

Indiana has matched the Bulls six-game winning streak as it keeps pace in the Eastern Conference. While the Pacers have won all of those games, any loss would have been horrible as it played Charlotte twice, New Orleans twice, New Jersey and Golden St. The Pacers had dropped eight straight games against the number before grabbing the money in four of their last five games but again, the opposition has played a big part in that recent success. The last time they played a solid team, they were hammered by Miami.

The Bulls will be out for some revenge as well. Chicago is 14-2 at home and one of those losses came against the Pacers in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The Bulls allowed the Pacers to shoot 47.5 percent from the floor in that game and they blew a double-digit lead in the process. Making things even more motivational for Chicago is that it was not happy with the way the Pacers celebrated the victory. The Bulls were without Luol Deng and Taj Gibson for that game as well.

Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record while going 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9.0 points. Chicago is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by six points or fewer and falls into a great situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after covering four of their last five games against the spread, playing on back-to-back days. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) over the last five seasons.

DAVID CHAN

Buffalo @ Winnipeg
PICK: Under 5

The 30-27-8 Buffalo Sabres stampede into Winnipeg to take on the 31-27-8 Jets.

Ryan Miller is set to square off against Ondrej Pavelec between the pipes.

Buffalo has won three-straight, including a 5-3 victory at Vancouver on Saturday; Ville Leino scored twice; Miller made 32-saves:

“It’s been a tough season,” Leino said. “It hasn’t gone my way and it hasn’t gone the team’s way. But there’s still a chance to make the playoffs and have fun here at the end. These are the games you want to play, when things count. And obviously every game counts now.”

Buffalo is 6-0-2 in its last eight games, and is now within two-points of eighth-placed Winnipeg:

“We’re battling hard to get back in the picture,” coach Lindy Ruff said. “When you can beat a team that’s basically the first-place team in the league, it’s a big plus.”

The Jets hammered the Panthers 7-0 on Thursday; Pavelec had 33-saves for his fourth shutout of the year:

“Everybody knows that it was a huge game for us, especially against Florida,” said Pavelec. “They play really well against us so (it was) a big game for us. Like I said, we learned from the last game (a 5-3 loss to Edmonton), especially in the third period.

“We didn’t make mistakes like we did before and it was a great win for us.”

The Jets are 4-1-2 during a current eight-game home stand.

These teams have played twice in 2012, and both games went "under" the number (the Jets won in Buffalo 2-1 on January 7th; Winnipeg won 4-1 at home on January 19th); a lot on the line here for both clubs; expect tonight's contest to follow suit.

All signs point to a low-scoring contest!

GUILLERMO SANCHEZ PEREZ

Coyotes @ Penguins
PICK: Under

Phoenix is 33-23-9 (16-11-5 on the road). Pittsburgh is 38-21-5 (20-8-2 at home). These teams rarely play against each other, but when they have, their games have been high-scoring. On November 6th, 2010, Pittsburgh beat Phoenix in its own barn 4-3; and then on December 20th, 2010, Pittsburgh hammered Phoenix 6-1 on home-ice.

The Coyotes are coming off a lacklustre 5-2 setback to Columbus on Saturday. Lauri Korpikoski and Ray Whitney scored. Shane Doan had two assists. Phoenix went a blistering 11-0-1 during the month of February to claim top spot in the Pacific Division, but its since lost two straight in front of the home town crowd. “We’re not good enough,” coach Dave Tippett said after the puzzling letdown vs. the Blue Jackets. “The emotional engagement that we can bring in short minutes, why can’t we have that the whole time? That’s puzzling for our group right now.” Doan is ready to return to form; “We have to go back to what was making us successful the previous 11,” he said. “We were on the right side of pucks, we were doing the little things, we were blocking shots, we were getting the puck out at the blue, we weren’t turning it over, we were being a little more disciplined and at the same time we were finding ways to win.”

Pittsburgh is red-hot, winner of five-straight, most recently a commanding 5-1 victory at Colorado on Saturday. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury made 35-stops. Steve Sullivan, Arron Asham, Evgeni Malkin, Deryk Engelland and Richard Park got the goals.

This is a tough stretch for Phoenix; tomorrow night it's in Columbus for the rematch with the Blue Jackets; "looking ahead" is obviously something this team can't do. I expect Tippet to have his club ready though, as "looking past" the Penguins would obviously be a recipe for disaster. The Coyotes are at their best when they back-check throughout the game, contest every puck possible, and risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes. After two shaky starts, look for Smith to have a bounce-back effort here.

The Penguins have been extremely adept at clamping down their opposition of late, and there is no reason at all to think this won't be the case again tonight; and there's no question that Fleury is already in "playoff form".

While their last two contests have sailed well above the posted number, today's game has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair.

Consider a play on the "under".

Jim Feist

Central Michigan vs Bowling Green
Pick: Bowling Green

The Mid America Conference tourney gets underway on Monday and unlike most conference, these game are played at the home site. Today's game is at Bowling Green and that's really a big edge for the home club here. Central Michigan is just 10-20 S/U on the season and 12-15 ATS. In fact, CMU has covered just three of its last 12 games. Bowling Green has been great at home, covering nine of its 13 games this season. Have to lay double-digits here, by I thought this line would be even higher than it came. Central Michigan looks to have their season end here on Monday so I'll lay the points with the home club.

Dave Cokin

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder

This has been a huge underdog series, but I'll lean to the chalk tonight. The Thunder are big time go with material off a loss standing 6-1 SU/ATS in this situation and the Mavs have not been very sharp of late. Number is a hurdle for sure, but I'll back Oklahoma City.

MATT RIVERS

Your Monday night free play winner is the Toronto Raptors as the home underdog against the Orlando Magic.

For some reason the Raptors have been a tough matchup for the Magic, as Toronto comes into tonight's meeting having covered in three of the last four series meetings. That includes a cover in the underdog role at Orlando on January 1st.

The Raptors have also been able to win three of their last five games straight up coming into tonight's home contest, and they have gone a positive 6-1-1 against the spread their last eight played on their home hardwood.

As for Orlando, the Magic is on a 1-3 spread dip their last four games. No doubt the Magic should get the win, and with only a game against lowly Charlotte on-deck, there is nothing preventing the Magic from focusing on tonight's showdown.

Still, with Toronto playing some competitive basketball of late, look for the matchups to once again work in favor of the underdog Raptors again tonight.

Toronto plus the points the call.

2♦ TORONTO

Free NBA release for 3/5/2012: Utah Jazz -1 over the Cleveland Cavaliers. We're getting the Jazz at an excellent price after losing 5 of their last 7. However Utah has gotten back to playing some solid ball in their last three, beating the Rockets and the Heat before losing a close one to Dallas on the road. The Jazz have not been strong on the road this year, and we've faded them successfully a few times. But in this matchup they outscore, outshoot, outdefend, and outbench their opponent. Its hard to ignore a team that statistatically outperforms another in nearly every category. Utah is sitting at the bottom of the Northwest at 17-19, but the postseason still isn't out of reach. If they want to survive the regular season, they'll have to start by beating the opponents "they're supposed to beat". There is no better place to start than by beating the Cavaliers Monday night. They have nothing to "look forward to", other than the lowly Charlotte Bobcats. Cleveland has the Nuggets and the Thunder on deck, both on the road. The Utah Jazz are 4-0 SU in their last four meetings with the Cavs, and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five. This years Cavaliers team is much improved over last years, no doubt about it. But they enter this game on a five game losing skid, and they're just 2-6 at the window in their last 8. Look for the Jazz to bounce back strong from that loss in Dallas. They'll be playing off a day of rest, and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 such situations. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on a day of rest, and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home. We'll lay a point for the much better team in this game, Utah -1. Our free plays are 171-93-1 (65%) all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive the best free basketball picks on the internet via email. Thank you, and Good Luck.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Dallas Mavericks

Oklahoma City is laying way to many points in this home matchup against Dallas, who is due for an ATS win. They have missed five straight covers and look to stick within the 6.5 points they are getting tonight. Dallas is 6-1 ATS on the road against Oklahoma City over the last three seasons and they are in a revenge situation after that home loss at the beginning of February, where they lost 95-86 as a pick. Dallas is 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 32-17 ATS off a home win. Dallas should easily cover this road matchup.

SEAN MURPHY

Golden State @ Washington
PICK: Over 203

I didn't end up pulling the trigger, but did have a strong lean to the 'under' in the Warriors game in Toronto yesterday, a game that finished with just 158 total points.

While that contest set up as a low-scoring affair, I see a much different story unfolding tonight as Golden State continues its road trip in Washington.

The Warriors have seen the 'under' cash in four consecutive games, as their offense has gone ice cold over the course of this road trip. Keep in mind, they've faced considerably tougher defenses over their last four games than the one they'll face tonight. Their last four stops on this trip have been in Indiana, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Toronto.

The Wizards are a weak defensive team, allowing over 101 points per game on 45.5% shooting this season. They've been even worse lately, giving up 107.6 ppg over their last five contests.

The Warriors scored 106 and 114 points in a pair of victories over Washington last season. While they have been struggling lately, they still possess plenty of offensive firepower, and there's an outside chance that Steph Curry will return to the lineup tonight. Even if he can't go, I'm confident we'll see a strong bounce-back performance from Marc Jackson's squad.

The Wizards have had their share of offensive struggles this season as well, but lately, they've rounded into form, scoring more than 100 points in three of their last four games.

You may remember that Washington began playing much better once Jordan Crawford became a more integral part of the team last spring, and we're seeing a similar situation unfold right now. Crawford has poured in at least 20 points in five of his last eight games, and is coming off a 31-point effort against Cleveland on Saturday. The backcourt duo of John Wall and Crawford presents a serious matchup problem against a middle-of-the-road Warriors defense.

Golden State is allowing over 100 ppg on 45.1% shooting on the road this season. Most concerning is the fact that the Warriors have allowed the opposition to shoot nearly 39% from beyond the arc away from home. Not surprisingly, they've posted a 9-7 o/u record in the visiting role.

The Warriors have given up over 100 points in three of the first five games of their current road trip - the only offenses they've held down have been the Hawks and Raptors, two struggling units in their own right.

The two meetings between these two teams produced 208 and 218 total points last season. Both games actually played 'under' the total thanks to a pair of high posted numbers. This time around, we're getting a much more reasonable total to work with, presenting us with considerable value in my opinion.

ROCKETMAN

Western Illinois vs Oral Roberts
Play: Western Illinois +8

Western Illinois is 8-1 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Oral Roberts is 4-12 ATS last 3 years in all tournament games. Oral Roberts is 3-10 ATS since 1997 when playing in March. Oral Roberts is 1-5 ATS since 1997 against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Western Illinois is allowing only 60 points per game overall this year. Leathernecks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Leathernecks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Leathernecks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Golden Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Golden Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Golden Eagles are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Golden Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Summit. Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Leathernecks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Western Illinois tonight!

Steve Janus

Dallas Mavericks +6.5

My money is on the Mavericks to cover this 6.5-point spread against the Thunder on Monday night. Dallas snapped a four-game losing streak with a 102-96 win at home over the Jazz. Most importantly they got 40 points from Dirk Nowitzki, who had been struggling of late. The Mavericks showed what they are capable of when Nowitzki gets into a rhythm offensively. Not only do I think Dallas will cover the spread, but I think this game will be extremely close with Dallas having a chance to possibly steal a win in Oklahoma City. That hasn't been easy to do this season. The Thunder are 15-1 at home, but the Mavericks are one of the few teams in the West who match up well with Oklahoma City.

Dallas and Oklahoma City have split their two games so far this season, with both team winning at home. However, the Mavericks defense has really gave the Thunder trouble. Oklahoma City is shooting 47.2% from the field on the year, but Dallas has held them under 41% in both games this season.

Believe it or not, Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Oklahoma City. Dallas is also 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.