Patrick Webb
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +135
I like LAC to win this game outright. The Clippers have been scuffling over the last 5 games going 3-2 including a loss to the Timberwolves. Minnesota had a solid road trip slitting 4 games and have won the last two meetings between these two clubs (both this season). I look for LAC to control the tempo of this game and to have such an edge in starter scoring that their lack of bench scoring will not prevent them from winning this game. LAC is outscoring teams by nearly 3 points a game in the first quarter and feel that LAC can build enough early that Minnesota will not be able to come from behind against a solid defensive club (improved DPPG by nearly 6 ppg form last season) and a team that can match team rebounding numbers.
David Banks
Gonzaga / St. Marys Under
e West Coast Conference Tourneys title game will have a pair of return entrants in it when the Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-5, 13-15-1 ATS) and St. Marys Gaels (26-5, 13-13 ATS) lock horns against one another for the third time this season; tip-off from the Orleans Arena is Sin City is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com at 9:00 ET.
The Zags punched their ticket to the WCC Tournament Championship Game for the 15th straight time on Saturday night after serving up their second double-digit defeat of the BYU Cougars in the semifinal round. The Bulldogs were able to avenge their second round loss to the Cougars in last years NCAA Tournament behind a fabulous showing from freshman Kevin Pangos. The WCCs Newcomer of the Year went off for a game high 30 points on 10-of-17 shooting from the field which included a sparkling 5-of-9 effort from beyond the arc. BYU did its best to cut the lead a number of times, but the Zags rallied behind Pangos to ultimately pull out the 77-58 pointspread cover as 2.5-point favorites. The win also moved Coach Mark Fews kids to a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS on neutral courts this season adding to wins over Hawaii, Western Michigan, and Arizona.
Returning to the WCC Championship Game for the fourth straight season will be the St. Marys Gaels who got a scare from San Francisco in the semifinal round, but had enough in the tank to sweep all three meetings from the Dons; the win was their fourteenth straight in the recent series and second in the span of a week. Head Coach Randy Bennetts squad will enter its third clash with the Bulldogs this season winners of three in a row (2-1 ATS) after dropping its previous two to Loyola Marymount and Murray State over BracketBuster Weekend. The comeback win and non-cover moved the Gaels to 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS in its three neutral court games on the year they split both of their earlier games against Baylor and Missouri State.
The rivalry between the Zags and Gaels has been one of the more entertaining in college basketball. St. Marys throttled the Bulldogs in the teams first meeting this season winning 83-62 in Moraga, but Gonzaga returned the favor when the Gaels paid a visit to The Kennel posting the 73-59 triumph. The Zags have won and covered two of the L/3 meetings in the WCC title game; the under cashed in all three clashes. Gonzaga checks in just 4-9-1 ATS its L/14 overall games, but has covered four of the L/5 times it opposed a +.600 opponent. St. Marys has been dreadful for its pointspread backers of late managing just a 3-7 ATS mark over its L/10 games the under is 5-1 in their L/6 versus +.600 opposition.
WUNDERDOG
Utah at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +1.5
It is hard to forget the Cleveland Cav's struggles last season that left them with a woeful 3-0 mark at one stretch of the season. It plays into their hands as the oddsmakers and the betting public have a tough time swallowing a play on Cleveland. The fact is, over their last 24 home games they are 11-13 and have made advances towards respectability far greater than they look. Utah has always been tough at home and, even with disappearing talent, they still manage to win 70% of the time on home hardwood. The road has been a complete nightmare as the Jazz only own thee wins in 16 tries and, more recently, they are a dismal 1-10 in their last 11. They have also failed to get it done on the road vs. teams with a losing home record standing in at 1-6 ATS in their last seven. Play on Cleveland.
Tony Stoffo
S Utah vs. South Dakota St
Play: Over 132.5
Southern Utah vs. South Dakota State Money movement out here in Vegas and trend analysis all point that this posted total is 10 points off what it should be - making for a highly recommended play on the over for this evening as the Thunderbirds and Jackrabbits match-up. Play Over - All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (South Dakota State) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This solid situational trend that definitely has passed the test of time has gone 132-75 hitting at a 64% clip. Over is 5-1 in Thunderbirds last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Over is 4-1 in Jackrabbits last 5 neutral site games. South Dakota State is 13-4 Over versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Southern Utah is 11-3 Over after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
Bryan Power
L.A. Clippers @ Minnesota
PICK: L.A. Clippers +3
Had the Clippers not gone to OT last night in a win at Houston, this play would be graded even stronger. Still taking the points and the revenge angle is the way to go. These teams met last Tuesday in Los Angeles w/ the T'wolves coming to town and upsetting the Clippers 109-97 as 6.5-point underdogs. Minnesota would go on to play in consecutive nights following that win and lost both times. They then concluded the four-game road trip w/ a phenomenal offensive performance, dropping 122 on Portland. Look for them to come back down to Earth here. The T'wolves are 5-10 ATS laying points this season, including 1-5 as home chalk of 6 pts or less. Take the points and the better team.
NHL Predictions
Winnipeg Jets -115
The Sabres have won 3 straight road games and 6 of their last 7 games overall, but are still just 30-27-8 on the season and 14-16-1 on the road this year. Watching their recent wins you can see that the Sabres have been relying on Ryan Miller to win hockey games. The Sabres were outshot 35-25 in a win Saturday versus Vancouver, and they were outshot 39-19 and 43-24 in two prior shutout wins versus Anaheim and San Jose. The Jets enjoyed some rest, as their last game was a 7-0 win at home against Florida on Thursday night. Prior to that the Jets dropped two straight home games despite outshooting their opponents. The Jets dropped a 3-2 shootout loss to St Louis even though they outshot them 41-16 and then a 5-3 loss to Edmonton outshooting them 32-25. Ondrej Pavelec will need to step up tonight again after his shutout going against a hot Ryan Miller. Winnipeg is 20-10-4 on home ice this season and 31-27-8 overall. The Jets are scoring 4 goals per game over their last 5, and if they can keep that up tonight they should be able to take care of Buffalo who is averaging just 1.94 goals per game on the road. These two teams have met three times this season, and this will mark their final meeting. They split their meetings in Buffalo (both going to overtime) and the Jets handled the Sabres 4-1 at home in their most recent meeting on January 19th. Playing in their 4th game in 6 nights we can expect Buffalo to be a tired team (they are 2-6 in their last 8 games in that situation), while the Jets haven’t had to travel in a long time as they’ve played 7 straight home games with 3 days of rest before tonight’s game. The Jets should outplay the Sabres enough to bring in another home win before heading on the road to continue their playoff push. Jets to win tonight.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Bulls -7
This game is all about revenge for Chicago, which lost by 5 points at home to Indiana on Jan. 25. The Bulls are 36-19 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are also are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pacers are 8-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons and have lost these games by an average of 13.9 points. Bet the Bulls.
Jack Jones
Sacramento Kings +9.5
The Sacramento Kings are showing great value tonight against the Denver Nuggets. Denver is overvalued in this spot due to three straight victories, including a win at San Antonio last night. That sets the Nuggets up for a big letdown spot tonight against the Kings.
Despite their poor record, the Kings have been one of the best teams in the league to back at the pay window over the last five weeks. Sacramento is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Off three straight losses, and out for revenge from two bad losses to Denver in their first two meetings, the Kings will be the more motivated team tonight.
Sacramento is 8-1 ATS after three or more consecutive losses this season. The Kings are 32-19 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Denver is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Bet Sacramento Monday.
Dave Price
Toronto Raptors +7.5
The Raptors are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5. The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Monday games and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Magic are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Lastly, the Magic are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Toronto.
Jimmy Boyd
Western Carolina +12.5
Western Carolina is playing very confident basketball right now. It has won 7 in a row, and it won't back down against Davidson with a NCAA Tournament berth on the line.
Davidson won the season's first meeting at home by 21, but I'm expecting a different story in this neutral floor battle with all that's at stake. Western Carolina is an impressive 7-1 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent this season. It has won by an average score of 77.1 to 68.9 in this situation.
The Wildcats are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
TOLEDO -2.5 over Miami: A little worried putting this play this high as the line just doesn't make sense to me. Why is Toledo this small a favorite? They have the better regular season than Miami, they are playing at home (9-8) and Miami has sucked on the road going 2-13. Going further we see that Miami is not playing well at all right now as they have lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games. Miami has played some close road games in the MAC, but they have gone just 1-8 in their MAC road games and have been outscored by at least 4 points in 7 of those losses. The Rockets are heading the other way as they have won 5 of their last 6 games to close out the year and their last 3 home games (Each by at least 4 points). Toledo also beat Miami, in Miami earlier in the year. Granted it was by just 2 points, but with the way these teams are playing right now and with Toledo being at home I see them winning by a few more than that here. This will be a close game through out, but the Rockets are 58th in the Nation in FT shooting (72.8 %) and hitting those FT's at the end should give them a 7+ point win here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Gonzaga -2 over St Mary's: Google News Play. Gotta like the Zags here. Heading into the WCC tournament I felt the Zags were the team to beat and I'm not gonna back down tonight. St Mary's had a great year as they won the regular season in the WCC with a 14-2 mark, but one of their losses was a 14 point loss to the Bulldogs. I feel though that St Mary's is not playing their best ball at the moment as they are just 4-3 in their last 7 games, which has included the 14 point lost to the Zags, a 14 point loss to Murray State, a home loss to Loyola-Cal and 2 wins over San Fran by just 7 and 5 points. Not exactly heading in to the post season on a roll. The Zags come in as winners of 8 of their last 9 games and they haven't played well in just 2 of them, with a 5 point win at San Diego and a road loss to the Dons, but in 6 of those 8 wins they did win by DD, including 2 wins over a Strong BY squad by 11 and 19 points. This is the 4th straight time these teams will meet in the WCC finals and Gonzaga has taken 2 of the first 3. They are playing better right now and should make it 3 of 4 after this one is all said and done.
Gonzaga/ St Mary's Under 134: Google News Play. WCC Title game and both teams should come out a bit tight. Tight or not we still have two of the better defensive teams in the WCC on the court tonight. The Zags come in allowing just 62.7 ppg (64th) on 41.2% shooting (83rd) overall, while in the WCC they have allowed just 61.7 ppg on 39.9% shooting. In their last nine games they have allowed more than 63 points just once and have allowed just 60.4 ppg over that stretch. Overall the Gaels have been slightly better as they have allowed just 62 ppg (55th) and they have allowed just 62.6 ppg when they head out on the road. They have allowed 65.7 ppg in conference play, but even if they allow that here I expect the Gaels put up less, as I also have the Zags winning this one. Even with the two offenses in this one, this game still has the feel of a 68-60 final, with the Zags winning of course. KEY TRENDS--- GONZAGA is 13-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season, while ST MARY'S is 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games as a dog.
Davidson -12.5 over Western Carolina: The WCU Catamounts are on a roll right now, as they have won 7 in row to make it to the SoCon finals, but getting that 8th win in a row will not be easy at all. During their string of wins the Catamounts have not played a team of this caliber and when they did play the Wildcats, this year, they lost by 21 points. The Catamounts have been dogs of 8.5 or more 8 times this year and they have gone 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in those games and have been outscored by 20 ppg in the process. Davidson has gone 18-1 in conference play this year and have routinely demolished their SOCon opponents, beating them by 15.5 ppg, while in their last 9 conference wins they have outscored their opponents by 19.8 ppg. Davidson plays an up tempo game and it works really well for them as they have averaged 77.9 ppg (12th) overall and 79.7 ppg in their SoCon games. They should have a good old time vs a WCU team that is 243rd in scoring defense (69.6 ppg) and 257th in FG% defense (45%). The pace of this game should also tire out WCU as this will be their 4th game in 4 days, especially after they just played an up and down game VS Greensboro Yesterday. The Catamounts are on a roll, but Davidson has owned this conference this year and they should wear down a tired Catamount team in the second half and really run a way with this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
VCU/ Drexel Over 118: Both teams play excellent defense, but these teams know how to score as well, especially of late. VCU has averaged 68.7 ppg on the year, nut i their last 5 games that number has gone up to 75.6 ppg. Drexel has averaged just 64.9 ppg on the year, but in their last 5 games they have averaged 69.7 ppg. Let's also note that we play OVER in a neutral court where the total is 129.5 or less, during the second half of the season in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG. This play is 48-16 the last 5 seasons. The first meeting this year put up 122 points and I can see that again.
Toledo/ Miami Under 126: Play Under when the total is between 120 and 129.5 points and the home team is a hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread and they have a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This play is 30-8 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Denver -9 over Western Kentucky: W KENTUCKY is 5-17 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons, while DENVER is 9-2 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Denver won the regular season meeting by 13 points and they are playing better now than they were then. Denver should win at least 13 in this one as well.
Andrew Lange
Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's
Play: Over 61.5 1st Half
I respect the defensive numbers Gonzaga has posted this year (0.93 points per possession vs. WCC) as well as St. Mary's lower-the-usual pace numbers over the past month (56-64 possessions in eight straight games) but were also dealing with the top two offenses in the conference and both are not shy about taking advantage of fast break opportunities. In the last 10 games in this series, only once did we see a halftime score fall below 63 points. And two of those contests where in this exact setting; the conference championship title game (39-34 and 38-25). This is the fourth straight year at this venue, the Orleans Arena, so both teams are obviously comfortable with the rims and backdrop. And both factors that often tell bettors there are tight rims – free throw and three-point shooting – have been fairly average with six games producing a combined 66% from the foul line and 38% from three-point land. This projects to be a close game so there is always the potential for it to turn into a grind late so let's take advantage of the low total and play over first half.