Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 7,2011

MTi Sports

Hornets at Bulls
Play: Under

The Bulls are 0-13 OU (-11.9 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average and 0-6 OU (-9.4 ppg) off a win as an away dog in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Hornets are 0-7 OU (-12.1 ppg) as a dog when facing an Eastern Conference team they lost to in their first match-up of the season and 0-6 OU (-21.2 ppg) as a dog when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they led at the half. The player-based trends reveal that the Hornets are 0-6 OU (-13.5 ppg) with no rest after a win in which Chris Paul had at least 10 assists and 0-6 OU (-23.9 ppg) after a win in which Chris Paul shot better than 50% from the arc. Consider these two UNDER.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves

Mavs are off a last second loss last night at home to Memphis, which snapped an eight-game win streak. They should bounce back big tonight in Minnesota considering a small number and their superb 20-10 ATS mark in road games this season. They are also 19-7 ATS their last 26 visits here. T'wolves are just 4-20 ATS off a non-conference game and 5-20 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points.

Play on: Dallas

Tom Freese

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Dallas Mavericks -6½

Minnesota is 15-49 straight up this year. The Timberwolves are 15-36 ATS their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 8-20 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Timberwovles are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games overall. Dallas is 45-17 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS their last 17 games overall. Dallas is 12-4 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Mavs are 5-1 ATS their last 6 road games. Dallas is 10-1 ATS their last 11 meetings in Minnesota.

Joprge Gonzalez

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat
Take: Chicago Bulls +5-110

The Chicago Bulls (42-18) are making a run in the Eastern Conference and are starting to look like a contender for the NBA Finals come June. Guard Derrick Rose is having a MVP season for the Bulls. The Bulls have won four of their last five games and eight of their last 10 games and have them in a tie with The Miami Heat (43-19) for the second seed in the conference. The tough defensive-minded attitude that the Bulls have on the court and their desire to crash the boards on a nightly basis have them ready to charge into the playoffs. The Bulls are coming off a 93-89 road win over the Orlando Magic. The Bulls clobbered the Orlando Magic and Dwight Howard on the glass by outrebounding them 50-30. The Heat has lost their last two straight and four of their five games. Miami has struggled against teams with a winning record. In fact, Miami has lost their last four straight games against teams with a winning record. The Bulls have already beat Miami twice this season and have outrebounded the Heat 95-69. The Bulls expect a big effort out of Miami but will be up to the challenge and should dominate in the paint. Take the Bulls plus the points!

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Clippers +1.5

The Bobcats are just 1-4 since trading away forward Gerald Wallace who was one of their two best players and Charlotte will be without the best player on their current roster, leading scorer Stephen Jackson for a while to let his strained left hamstring heal. The Clippers have won two games in a row over the Rockets and Nuggets and they have played well at Charlotte in the past. The trade of Gerald Wallace will be felt in this match up as Wallace's defensive assignment would have been Blake Griffin. The current Charlotte roster will not have an answer for the rookie power forward. The road team is 9-3-1 against the spread in the last thirteen meetings between these two teams. Take the points.

JIM FEIST

ROCKETS / KINGS
TAKE: ROCKETS

The Houston Rockets are not dead in the west yet. It didn't look good for Houston though before winning six of its last seven games. Still, the Rockets find themselves three games back of Memphis in the west for the final playoff spot. But if their recent play is any indication, the Rockets are going to be a force to reckon with down the stretch. The Rockets are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and 4-1 ATS their last five. The road hasn't been too bad either, as the Rockets are 6-2 ATS their last eight away games. Meanwhile the Sacramento Kings are trying to stay out of the west cellar, leading last place Minnesota by just two games. The Kings have won just three of their last 15 games. The road team has done well in this series, going 20-7 ATS the last 27 games. The Rockets are 9-4 ATS their last 13 trips to Sacramento. I'll be taking the road team here on Monday as the Rockets look to make a big push for that final playoff spot.

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY -½ +142 over WASHINGTON

The Caps won again yesterday to stretch their winning streak to four and in the process they leapfrogged over the Bolts for first place. They Lightning can take back first place with a win here but let’s get back to the Caps. They beat Florida yesterday in OT and were badly outplayed in the first and third periods. Washington’s previous three wins were over the Islanders twice and Blue Notes once, all by a single goal. Against the Islanders they trailed 2-0 in the first game and they trailed 1-0 in the second game with under a minute to go. The Caps have found ways to escape by the hair on their chinny-chin chins against three teams that are booking tee-off times in April and two of those teams, the Panthers and Blue Notes are reeling. Now they’ll play a real team that has dropped three in a row but completely dominated the Habs on Saturday. In fact, the Bolts last five games have come against the Canadiens, Bruins, Devils twice and the Rangers. So, while the Caps were barely squeaking by against a bunch of also rans, the Lightning was playing four of the hottest teams in the NHL. Once again the Caps are getting way too much credit and as long as they continue to be overvalued we’ll keep wagering against them and make no exception here. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +142 (Risking 2 units).

Lenny Del Genio

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

Both of these teams come off narrow victories last night. The Thunder needed OT to defeat the Phoenix Suns 122-118, but did not cover as 6.5-point home favorites. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, won outright in Dallas as 6.5-point dogs, snapping the Mavs eight-game win streak by way of a sweet Zach Randolph jumper with less than one second remaining. It was a wild finish as the lead changed hands three times in the final 14 seconds. Playing in the second night of back to backs favors Memphis here as they are 14-3 ATS in that role, 10-2 ATS off a SU dog win and 20-9 ATS off a win by 6 pts or less. The Grizzlies are 2-1 SU/ATS vs. OKC so far this season, including an upset as 7.5-point road dogs in the last meeting. The Thunder are not going to be +37 in free throw attempts on the road here like they were last night. Take Memphis.

Hollywood Sports

New Orleans Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

The Hornets (37-28) will likely be without superstar point guard Chris Paul who was carted off on a stretcher yesterday after suffering a concussion midway through their 96-81 win at Cleveland. New Orleans are already without Trevor Ariza who is out with a groin injury. Even with Paul, this club is struggling against the best teams in the league as they have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games when playing without a day of rest. Chicago (87-86) returns home to the United Center feeling good about themselves after completing their season sweep of the Miami Heat (and triggering "cry-gate") after their 87-86 win in Miami yesterday. The Bulls should build off this momentum as they have covered 10 of their last 13 games coming off a win. And on their home court as a favorite, Chicago has covered 4 straight games. They should handle an undermanned New Orleans team tonight. Lay the points with Chicago.

Matt Fargo

Virginia Commonwealth @ Old Dominion
PICK: Old Dominion -4.5

This is a good situation for Old Dominion which caught a big break yesterday with George Mason losing to VCU. This is not saying that VCU is a bad and will be a pushover but the Monarchs struggled in their last game against the Patriots and it could have been another struggle tonight as well. Instead they face the Rams who they defeated by 11 points at VCU in the last meeting and they are riding an eight-game winning steaks heading into this championship game.

VCU is coming off a huge upset as it defeated George Mason by 16 points as five-point underdogs. That does two things for us here. It provides excellent line value and well as letting us play the bounce angle. This is different than a letdown situation because since it is a championship game, there should be no letdown and if there it, too bad for the Rams and better for us. The bounce angle basically is a play that goes opposite of what happened last game and that is a complete Rams domination.

Old Dominion handled Hofstra Sunday 77-69, in a game that actually wasn't as close as the score indicated. It can be argued that the Monarchs fall into the bounce angle as well as they shot 57.1 percent from the floor however we are not dealing with a team that won by a large margin which gives it a better opportunity to put together another strong effort. Both teams have been solid on a neutral floor this season but it is hard to go against the fact that Old Dominion is a perfect 5-0 in such games this season.

While the Rams are coming off that big win, they have not been playing exceptionally good as the win snapped a 5-0 ATS run in conference games. They are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record while Old Dominion is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning record while also going 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Monarchs came into the season as the preseason favorites to win the CAA and they get the automatic bid tonight. 3* Old Dominion Monarchs

Rocketman

Utah Jazz vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -6

Utah is 1-7 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. New York is 10-3 ATS this year when playing back to back days. New York is 21-7 ATS last 3 years and 7-1 ATS this year against Northwest Division opponents. New York is 10-3 ATS this year after an upset win as an underdog. Utah has lost 8 of their last 10 games overall. New York is 5-0 ATS overall vs Utah the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on New York tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +4.5

The Kings fit a solid home dog system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home dogs of 4.5 or less with 1 or more day of rest with a total of 190 or higher and scored 100 or more as a road dog vs an opponent that scored 110 or more as a home favorite. Home dogs in this system actually win the game outright 14 of 18 times and cover to a 15-3 mark. Houston is just 4-9 off a win of 10 or more points. Look for the Kings to ground the Rockets.

Steve Janus

2* Utah Jazz +7

While your initial thought might be to load up on the Knicks at home, this is a very tired New York team. Tonight's game will be their fifth in the last seven days, and that really takes a toll on teams this late in the season. Utah on the other hand will have some fresh legs, as they get ready to play just their third game in the same time span. New York has also failed to win back to back games since they acquired Carmelo Anthony, and just won at Atlanta yesterday. New York is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet Utah!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +1.5

The Bobcats are expected to be without Stephen Jackson, but the Clippers are expected to be without Eric Gordon. The loss of Gordon is a serious matter, considering the Clippers are only 4-16 without him. His loss is compounded by the fact that L.A. is playing this one on the road, where it is just 5-25 on the season. Charlotte has lost 4 straight, but all of those defeats came of the road. The Bobcats have been much better on their home floor, where they have won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. 2 of the victories in this stretch have come against Boston and the L.A. Lakers. The Bobcats' last defeat was a brutal 93-69 loss at Portland. History tells us it is a great idea to get behind the Bobcats after such a poor offensive performance. In fact, they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. The Clippers are a disappointing 16-42 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Take the points.