SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCATION TOURNAMENT
(at Albany, N.Y.)
William & Mary (22-9, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. Old Dominion (25-8, 13-16 ATS)
William & Mary looks to slide on the glass slipper with an upset of CAA regular-season champion Old Dominion in tonight’s conference title game.
The Tribe pulled off the outright upset and beat second-seeded Northeastern on Sunday, winning 47-45 as a four-point pup, despite just 16 second-half points and finishing 17-for-46 from the field for 37 percent shooting. Only eight players scored for William & Mary and nobody reached double digits. Defensively, the Tribe held Northeastern to 17-for-50 shooting (34 percent) and 2-for-13 from beyond the three-point line.
Old Dominion, the CAA’s top seed in the tourney, needed overtime to get past VCU in Sunday’s other semifinal, winning 73-69 and cashing as a two-point favorite. Gerald Lee led the way for the Monarchs with 26 points as they shot 49.2 percent from the floor.
The Monarchs took both meetings from William & Mary this season, scoring a 61-42 blowout win at home on Feb. 3, easily cashing as a 12-point favorite, and winning 58-55 at William & Mary but coming up short as 5½-point road favorites. Old Dominion has won four straight in this series since losing to the Tribe in the opening round of the conference tourney in 2008.
William & Mary has now won three straight (2-1 ATS) and seven of nine overall (6-3 ATS). The Tribe are 12-6 away from home this season (11-6 ATS) and carry positive ATS streaks of 13-3 as a ‘dog, 5-1-1 as a neutral-site pup, 11-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-2 in conference action.
The Monarchs have rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS) and seven of eight overall (5-3 ATS). They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a chalk, but from there they’re on pointspread skids of 10-24 following a spread-cover, 8-19 in neutral-site games, 3-8 against teams with a winning record and 2-8 as a neutral-site favorite.
The Tribe have topped the total in four of six neutral-site outings, but they are on “under” runs of 12-2 overall, 8-0 against teams playing above .600 ball, 9-0 as an underdog, 7-1 after a straight-up win and 11-2 against CAA squads. Old Dominion has stayed below the total in four of five neutral-site games and 13 of 19 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but it is on “over” streaks of 6-0 in conference play, 6-0 as a favorite and 14-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLD DOMINION
WEST COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
St. Mary’s (25-5, 28-10 ATS) vs. (14) Gonzaga (26-5, 15-10-2 ATS)
The top two teams in the West Coast Conference meet in the championship game and in search of the conference’s automatic bid to the Big Dance.
St. Mary’s, which finished second in the conference, three games behind Gonzaga, crushed Portland, 69-55 in Sunday’s semifinal, getting the cash as a four-point favorite. The Gaels have now won four straight (3-1 ATS) and 10 of 12 overall (7-5 ATS). They have been stellar on the highway this season, going 11-3 in road/neutral-site contests (10-4 ATS).
The Bulldogs won the regular-season crown with a 14-2 mark and dominated Loyola Marymount 776-2 as a 12½-point chalk on Sunday to earn a spot in the title game. It was the Bulldogs’ fifth straight win (3-1 ATS) and ninth in their last 10 outings (6-2-1 ATS). They shot 52.1 percent from the floor on Sunday and got 18 points, seven assists and six rebounds from Steven Gray, all while holding the Lions to 36.7 percent shooting, including 2-for-13 from beyond the arc.
Gonzaga won and covered in both regular-season matchups with the Gaels, including an 89-82 win at St. Mary’s on Jan. 14, cashing as a 4½-point road pup. The Bulldogs then blew out the Gales in Washington on Feb. 11, winning 80-61 and cashing as 5½-point favorites, giving Gonzaga six straight victories over its rivals. In last season’s conference tournament final, Gonzaga routed the Gaels, winning 83-58 as a 7½-point chalk on this same Las Vegas court.
Despite last night’s easy spread-cover against Portland, St. Mary’s comes into this game on several negative ATS skids, including 3-5 overall (all against WCC foes), 2-4 after a straight-up win, 1-4 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Gonzaga is on ATS streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 in neutral-site games and 8-0 against winning teams, but just 1-3-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
For the Gaels, the under is on streaks of 6-1 after a straight-up win and 7-2 overall (all in conference play), but the over has cashed in five of seven against winning teams. The Bulldogs are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 20-9-1 as a favorite, 18-8-1 after a straight-up win, 7-3 in neutral-site contests and 4-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
NBA
San Antonio (36-24, 29-30-1 ATS) at Cleveland (49-15, 32-31-1 ATS)
The Spurs take aim at their fifth straight victory when they visit the Quicken Loans Arena to face the Cavaliers.
San Antonio’s four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) features road wins in New Orleans a week ago and in Memphis on Saturday, the latter being a 102-92 victory as a one-point pup. The Spurs’ victory over the Grizzlies was costly, though, as Tony Parker broke a bone in his hand and is expected to be sidelined for six weeks. San Antonio is just 14-14 on the highway this season, but has covered in just 12 of those 28 contests.
Cleveland had its six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) snapped on Saturday in Milwaukee, losing 92-85 as a 3 ½-point ‘dog. Without LeBron James in the lineup, the Cavs struggled offensively, going just 34-for-77 from the field. James missed the game with an ankle injury but is expected to play tonight. The Cavaliers are 27-4 at Quicken Loans Arena this season, but have struggled to cash in front of the home fans, going just 13-18 ATS.
The Cavaliers have won three of the last four meetings (SU and ATS) with the Spurs and cashed in four of the last five. In last year’s battle in Cleveland, the Cavs scored a 101-80 blowout win as a six-point favorite. Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups in Ohio, and the chalk has cashed in six of the last eight clashes overall. Finally, the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
San Antonio is on ATS skids of 0-5 after a day off, 1-6 against Eastern Conference teams and 8-21 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600, but it is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 Monday outings. Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and 1-4 ATS after its last five non-covers, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 11-5 against Southwest Division teams, 9-4 after a day off and 37-15-1 on Monday.
For the Spurs, the over has cashed in four of five on the road and four straight after they get a day off, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 8-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 4-1 on Monday. The Cavaliers have stayed below the total in four of five against Southwest Division teams, but they’ve topped the total in eight of 12 home games and nine of 14 overall.
In this series, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five matchups in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Craig Trapp
Dallas vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +7
The Timberwolves have not been playing that bad as of late. Like any young team its all about matchups and they fit well with the Mavs. In fact less than a week ago they had a chance to upset DAL at home losing by three only. Even better Terry and Kidd both are out for this game. Flynn and Brewer have had some really nice games lately and they will be the two that will lead MIN to a very close game. Take the points at home!
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Columbus PL @ Los Angeles
PICK: Los Angeles -1.5
The Kings are hoping to make it to the "promised land" (Playoffs) this season, but have dropped two in a row; for a number of different reasons I believe LA on the "puck line" is the prudent wager in this circumstance:
Columbus (25-19-11) has lost two of its last three visits to visits to LA and is 0-2-2 since winning three in a row; the Blue Jackets lost 6-2 in the last matchup on Oct 25th.
Columbus is coming off a disheartening 2-1 loss to the Sharks on Saturday, which was the beginning of a tough three-game California road-swing.
Keep in mind that Columbus is just 1-4 its last five overall and a disturbing 4-19 its last 23 on the road.
On the other side of the ice: Los Angeles’ Jonathan Quick made 21 saves Saturday but lost for the second straight start. He has beaten Columbus two straight times and is 2-1-0 with a 2.00 goals-against average versus the Blue Jackets this season.
Los Angeles remains on a long-term 11-4 overall run; 5-2 at in front of the home town faithful.
Bottom line: The Kings have no mercy on "lesser opponents" as evident by their 18-7 (+6.2 units) mark against teams with a "losing record".
LA is also 12-6 (+3.7 units) after allowing 4 goals or more in its previous contest (lost 4-2 to the Habs on Sat.); which means of course that after a "sub-par" performance, this team responds with a much more concerted effort on both ends of the ice.
I believe this is a very bad spot for Columbus as it catches a hungry home team in the middle game of a challenging road trip; lay the 1 1/2 here.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland
PICK: Under
On Friday night, this looked like a heckuva match-up on paper. The Spurs have just started to play their best basketball of the season, while the Cavaliers have been the league's best team. But then, on Saturday, San Antonio's 2nd leading scorer, point guard Tony Parker, broke a bone in his hand, and will miss the rest of the regular season. And coach Mike Brown decided to rest LeBron James against Milwaukee (in part because of a gimpy ankle), and the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that James may sit out tonight's game vs. the Spurs as well. With all this star power (and fire power) on the sidelines tonight, the rotations will be a bit messed up, and I look for the offensive efficiency of each team to suffer a bit. After all, both teams run their offenses thru Parker and James. Let's play on the Cavs and Spurs to sail 'under' the total tonight.
JIM FEIST
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS / NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
TAKE UNDER
Two teams occupying their respective cellars of their divisions meet today as Golden State travels to the Big Easy to take on the Hornets. The difference between these two teams is that New Orleans still has a outside shot at sneaking into the playoffs in the West. The Hornets sit 5 1/2 games back of the last playoff spot, currently occupied by Portland. But, it's a long shot since they would have to pass Memphis, Houston and a very decent Portland team to get in. Golden State is dead last in the NBA in scoring defense, but surprisingly this series has been an UNDER play for the bettors. The last meeting between these clubs did go OVER, but that was the first time in the last five meetings. Moreover, if we look at the history of these teams in New Orleans we find that the last four have gone UNDER and six of the last seven have gone UNDER. It's been the ability of the Hornets to slow the tempo and play some defense as Golden State has scored over 100 points at New Orleans in just two of the last seven games. It's always a "hold onto your seat" proposition when you play a Golden State game under, but tonight this one should see a slower paced contest and that will get us UNDER.
Bobby Maxwell
Dallas (-7) at MINNESOTA
I'm on a 62-32-3 streak with my FREE selections and tonight I have an NBA winner for you as I lay the chalk with Dallas visiting Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves.
It’s 11 straight wins for the Mavs and will easily be 12 after they blow out the T’Wolves tonight. Dallas has really come together since the acquisitions of Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson and they have the toughness to really compete in the Western Conference playoffs.
Dallas went to Chicago on Saturday and beat the Bulls 122-116 as a one-point underdog, shooting 49-of-87 from the field and getting 27 points from Dirk Nowitzki and 24 each from Butler and Rodrique Beaubois, who has filled in nicely for Jason Terry.
The Mavericks went to Minnesota on Nov. 13 and won 89-77 and cashed as a 10 ½-point favorite. Dallas has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the T-Wolves and seven straight in Minnesota and cashed in each one of them. In this rivalry, the road team is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and 5-2 ATS on the road against teams with losing home records. Minnesota is just 5-16 at home against teams with winning road marks.
Love the way the Mavs are coming together. Lay the chalk and play Dallas in this one.
4♦ DALLAS
Karl Garrett
Dallas (-7) at MINNESOTA
G-Man on an 11-5-1 comp play run my last 17 free plays.
For Monday night, have to lay the road chalk with the streaking Dallas Mavericks, as Dallas brings an 11-game winning streak into Minnesota for a date with the slumping Wolves.
The Mavs have covered their last 4 on the road, and are 20-13 against the spread overall away from home this year.
Minnesota has lost their last 5, and 11 of their last 12 games, and are also on a 1-3 spread slide their last 4 games.
Dallas did dump Minny, 112-109 just 5 days ago in Dallas in a non-cover, but it should be noted that the Mavericks have won 9 of the last 10 series meetings against the Timberwolves, and the road team is on a 22-6 spread run the last 28 times these teams have played.
Go ahead and lay the road wood as the Mavs extend their winning ways in a big fashion tonight.
2♦ DALLAS
EZWINNERS
Dallas Mavericks -7
The Mavericks have been red hot and I will ride them here tonight against the struggling T-Wolves. Dallas has won in seven consecutive visits to Minnesota, and each victory has been by at least 10 points with the average margin of victory being 17.7 points. The T-Wolves only have one win in the last month to go with eleven losses and they are dealing with the off the court problems that came along with Al Jefferson's DUI arrest. Jason Kidd is being rested and will not play tonight, but it should not matter as I expect J.J. Barea to get the job done. I don't expect Dallas to take Minnesota lightly tonight as the T-Wolves won 117-108, in their last meeting on February 5th in Dallas. Lay the points.
James Patrick Sports
Fairfield vs. Siena
HC Fran McCaffery and his Saints are (85-44) the past (4) seasons but they will have their hands full in Albany's Time Union Center as the Stags are very dangerous as evidenced by last seasons (17) wins. Look for a game in the sixties as both defenses surrender about (62) points a game and Fairfield at (15-5) and Siena (19-1) are the best in the league and deserve this opportunity. Our Monday College Basketball selection is Fairfield - Siena Under the Total in the Metro Atlantic Conference Championship Game with a ticket to the Big Dance available to the winner.
Bryan Leonard
Dallas at Minnesota
The hottest team in the league right now are the Dallas Mavericks who have won 11 straight games. The toughest time they had during that streak was a three point home win over these Timberwolves. Minnesota dominated Dallas on the boards that game with a 54-32 edge while shooting 53% from the field. Despite those numbers the Mavericks were able to garner the victory. With that struggle still fresh in their minds we look for Dallas to continue their series domination of Minnesota. The schedule shows four straight home games after this road contest all against beatable opponents, New Jersey, New York, Chicago and Boston. The Celtics are really struggling right now and haven't looked like a serious contender for most of the last two months. Minnesota will get the Mavericks full attention tonight.
Minnesota has dropped 11 of their last 12 games. The only win was against Miami without Dwayne Wade. They haven't won a game at home in over a month. Things don't look any brighter for the T-Wolves as five of their next six games will be against Dallas, Denver, San Antonio, Utah and the LA Lakers. With a 14-49 record heading into play tonight Minnesota may go into a late season lottery swoon if they haven't done so already.
With the changes the Mavericks have made personnel wise they have high expectations and a loss at Minnesota tonight is not in their plans. Look for the Mavericks to continue their hot hand as they take care of business against a team they have had great success.
PLAY DALLAS
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
Although recent history suggest otherwise, we're looking for these two high scoring teams to finish Under the posted total Monday. The fact that Atlanta has gone Over in its last six games as well as eight of 10 vs. New York suggests its time to go the other way. The Hawks are also 37-18 Under in road games when seeking revenge for a loss where the opponent scored more than 110 points. The Knicks beat the Hawks 112-108 on New Year's Day.
Play on: Under
SPORTS WAGERS
MEMPHIS –8½ over New Jersey
The Nets went into New York on Saturday as an 8-point dog and beat the Knicks by 20, which in itself is incredible and couldn’t be more embarrassing for the home side. The Knicks are 20 games under .500 and now these same Nets will play in Memphis, a team from the superior West that is a game over .500 and the Nets are taking back the exact amount of points. Doesn’t make sense at all, does it? The Nets do have two wins over its last six and a couple of close losses but that does not change the fact that they’re a rancid club that does not belong on the same floor as 99% of the teams in this league. The Grizz are coming off a 10-point home loss to the Spurs and now sit four games out of a playoff spot, thus, taking this intruder lightly is not an option. This edition of the Grizzlies wants to win badly, they seldom pull a no show and with its size and talent should destroy this opponent rather easily. Play: Memphis –8½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
DUNKEL
Dallas at Minnesota
The Mavericks look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Dallas is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2)
Game 501-502: San Antonio at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.340; Cleveland 127.389
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 503-504: Atlanta at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.262; New York 116.295
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 210
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7); Over
Game 505-506: New Jersey at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 114.421; Memphis 119.792
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+8 1/2); Under
Game 507-508: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.431; Minnesota 114.594
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Golden State at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.501; New Orleans 120.820
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over
NCAAB
St. Mary's (CA) vs. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning SU record. Gonzaga is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-3 1/2)
Game 511-512: William & Mary vs. Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 55.572; Old Dominion 63.393
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 8
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 9
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+9)
Game 513-514: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 61.065; Troy 51.542
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-5 1/2)
Game 515-516: Denver vs. North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 49.005; North Texas 56.272
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: North Texas by 1
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-1)
Game 517-518: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 63.543; Gonzaga 68.846
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-3 1/2)
Game 519-520: Fairfield at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 57.881; Siena 67.001
Dunkel Line: Siena by 9
Vegas Line: Siena by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-8 1/2)
Game 521-522: Appalachian State vs. Wofford
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 55.408; Wofford 59.839
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Wofford by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (-3 1/2)
Game 523-524: IUPUI vs. Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 59.969; Oakland 54.840
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 525-526: Oral Roberts vs. IPFW
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 55.390; IPFW 49.696
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Columbus at Los Angeles
The Kings look to build on their 11-4 record over they last 15 games. Los Angeles is the pick (-190) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-190)
Game 1-2: Dallas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.350; Washington 13.226
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-300); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-300); Under
Game 3-4: Columbus at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.948; Los Angeles 12.493
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-190); Under
Brad Diamond Sports
NYK/Atlanta Over
The Knicks are coming off back-to-back UNDER situations, but now should be getting ready for another huge offensive showing in a wild affair in New York against the Hawks. Doubt Atlanta will walk the ball up the floor versus the Knicks porous defense. Atlanta has the athlete's that prefer to "run" with the Knicks in MSG, where there is a celebrity touch from the fans perspective. New York has gone OVER in 11 of 14, while Atlanta has been high 6 straight. The Knicks scaled OVER 4 straight when booked as a HOME DOG and 6-0 OVER versus a club with a .600 winning mark or higher. Finally, the OVER has been the play in the series last 5 meetings in the Big Apple. If New York controls pace, this baby is up, up and OVER.
Golden State+ over New Orleans
Under HC Don Nelson the Warriors have gone 17-45 SU characterized by a lackluster defense, and now a banged up lineup. The Hornets are 6 of 9 ATS in the series the last there seasons, but board with a miserable 64-94 ATS off a division game. Finally, the rebounding Warriors claw into this evening with a smart 16-6 ATS mark off a double digit loss. We look for a strong effort emotionally from the Warriors as Nelson has been beating them up pretty bad of late.
Sam Martin
Spurs at Cavaliers
Prediction: Under
Lots of stuff going on here in this game, with Tony Parker likely out for the Spurs, and both LeBron James and Boobie Gibson questionable for the Cavs. If LeBron sits out, or even plays restricted minutes, then the Cavs offense will be at a huge disadvantage. They looked lost on Saturday against the Bucks with LeBron watching from the sidelines. San Antonio doesn't score many points anyway, and now without their starting point guard, we look for both teams to use a lot of time to set up their half court game. This one could end with both teams in the 80's! 5* San Antonio and Cleveland Under.