Tom Freese
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Minnesota is 14-49 this year. Center Al Jefferson scores 17.1 points and 9.3 rebounds. Power forward Kevin Love scores 15.2 points and 11.3 rebounds a game. Point guard Jonny Flynn scores 13.7 points a game. Guard Corey Brewer scores scores 13.2 points a game. Forward Ryan Gomes scores 10.6 points a game. The Timberwolves score 97.7 points a game and they allow 106.4 points a game. Minnesota is 5-16 ATS their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 2-11 ATS their last 13 home games vs. team with a road win percentage of over 60%. Dallas is 43-21 overall and on an 11 game winning streak. Dirk Nowitzki scores 25.3 points a game. Guard Jason Terry scores 17 points a game. Forward Shawn Marion scores 11.5 points a game. Point guard Jason Kidd scores 10 points and 9.4 assists a game. The Mavericks score 101.5 points a game. Dallas is 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games and they are 7-0 ATS their last 7 meetings with Minnesota. PLAY ON DALLAS -
Charlie Scott
William & Mary vs. Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -9
Coming off an OT win vs VCU on Sunday, Old Dominion is the superior team in the Colonial Conference Tournament Final. Old Dominion is already 2-0 s/u vs William & Mary this season. In conference tournaments such as this, 3 games in 3 consecutive nights, in the third night the Final, players struggle with fatigue and have weak legs. William & Mary's offense depends on good outside shooting and making 3 pointers. Expect William & Mary to struggle on offense tonight vs a deep veteran Old Dominion team that plays tough, rugged defense and rebounds well. OLD DOMINION gets the NCAA Tournament Bid !
Larry Ness
Fairfield @ Siena
PICK: Siena -7.5
Siena makes its fourth straight appearance in the MAAC tournament championship game as the Saints host Fairfield. Siena won the league with a 17-1 mark (lone loss on Feb 12 at Niagara 87-74) while the Stags finished second with a 13-5 record (both have won two games to reach the title game). Siena’s head coach Fran McCaffery’s resume is missing very little. He has reenergized Siena’s program in his four-plus years at the helm and taken it to new heights. McCaffery’s Saints won 20 games in his second season (lost in MAAC championship game) and the last two years have won both the MAAC’s regular season and tournament titles. Siena crushed 4th-seeded Vanderbilt 83-62 in the 2008 NCAA tournament and last season beat Ohio State 74-72 in double overtime. McCaffery's won 96 games the last four years (more to come) at Siena and no one is surprised. He came to Siena from UNC-Greensboro, where he posted a 90-87 record in six seasons, leading the Spartans to their second-ever NCAA bid in 2001. McCaffery was the nation’s youngest Division I head coach when he was hired in 1986 at Lehigh (26-years-old). He capped his three-year tenure with the Mountain Hawks with a 21-win season and an NCAA berth in 1988, making him (at the time) the youngest head coach to reach the NCAA Tournament. When McCaffery led the Saints to the 2008 NCAA tourney, he became just the 31st coach to take three different programs to the “Big Dance” and he is the first to do so with three programs from one-bid leagues (conference’s that sent just one team the year his program advanced). Three seniors and two juniors make up the Saints' starting-five. The seniors are PG Moore (6.7-7.8 APG) plus forwards Franklin (16.1-7.9) and Ubiles (14.8-3.5-2.3). They've all played major roles in each of Siena's last two NCAA teams. The 6-9 Rossiter (14.1-11.1) and guard Jackson (13.9) are the juniors, making major contributions both last year and this season. Fairfield is a good team but can't match Siena's talent level. The forward duo of Johnson (15.7-9.8) and Hawkins (14.6-5.5) are a strong pair, while the team leader is freshman PG Needham (16.3-5.2 APG). Fairfield lost at home to Siena 81-73 but then almost won here at the Times Union Center in Albany, New York on Feb 8, falling just 69-67. However, I believe that close game only serves to make Siena more keenly aware of how dangerous the Stags really are. The Saints know an at-large bid is a real long shot, so a win here is a virtual MUST! Siena's won 37 straight in this building, the second-longest active home winning streak next to the No. 1 Jayhawks. Lay it.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -6.5
Off a loss to Miami, and after suffering back-to-back defeats to the Knicks this season, look for the Hawks to be extremely motivated in this spot tonight. New York is 1-8 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game in the 2nd half of the season this season, losing these games by an average of 9 points. The Knicks just don't have the weapons to run and gun with some of the more athletic teams in the NBA. Plus, the Knicks are really struggling right now, as evidenced by Saturday's blowout loss to the Nets. We'll lay the points.
Chris Jordan
San Antonio at CLEVELAND (-5')
I'm winning here too, as I hit the Nuggets in the NBA last night; tonight I'll play the team I think they'll end up playing in the NBA Finals if the Lakers don't wisen up - the Cavaliers, laying points against visiting San Antonio.
I know there's a good chance LeBron James won't be in the game, but the Spurs will be without Tony Parker and have enough issues to deal with.
The Cavaliers are 27-4 at Quicken Loans Arena this season, and already got a dose of life without LeBron, as they had their six-game winning streak (4-2 against the spread) snapped on Saturday in Milwaukee.
The Cavaliers have won three of the last four meetings both straight-up and ATS with the Spurs and cashed in four of the last five. They're looking to notch their 50th win tonight, and should have no trouble getting it against a team that is mired in ATS slides of 1-6 against the Eastern Conference and 0-5 when playing on one day's rest.
The Spurs, who have lost six of eight to the books in Cleveland, will be playing their second road game in three nights, and 12th road affair in their last 16 games.
LeBron or not - the Cavs roll in this one.
3♦ CAVALIERS
Stephen Nover
Dallas at MINNESOTA (+7)
Now 3-1 with my complimentary NBA plays, and over the last five days, am on a 5-2 run with all NBA releases.
And before you scroll down to a pair of wrong plays on this game, let me give you the right insight.
The Timberwolves should be pumped to earn their first home victory in a month. They get Al Jefferson, their best player, back from a two-game suspension.
The Mavericks are the hottest team in the NBA, but they are without star sixth man Jason Terry. In addition, starting center Brendan Haywood is a game time decision because of a sore back. If Haywood can't play, the Mavericks are thin in the pivot with Erick Dampier out with a finger injury.
This marks Dallas' third game in four days. Minnesota is playing for just the second time in five days.
The Timberwolves gave the Mavericks all they could handle when they met just this past Wednesday in Dallas, losing 112-109. The Mavericks shot better than 50 percent from the floor in that game and made 17-of-18 free throws yet still only won by three. The Mavericks rested Jason Kidd in that game, but the Timberwolves were minus Jefferson.
When the teams met prior to that, the Timberwolves upset the Mavericks, 117-108, in Dallas on Feb. 5.
Dallas is not a good favorite. The Mavericks are 6-21-1 ATS the past 28 times they've been chalk. They blew out the Bulls in their last game, but are 2-13-1 ATS following a pointspread cover.
The Timberwolves don't draw much respect in the marketplace. They are a bad team with a bad coach, so that's understandable. But that often makes then underpriced and leads to pointspread covers. So it's not surprising they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at the Target Center.
The Timberwolves have improved their long-range perimeter game, averaging better than 37 percent from the beyond the arc since Jan. 1 compared to hitting less than 30 percent from 3-point range during the first two months of the season.
2♦ TIMBERWOLVES
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks. Why Dallas? Well, they are the hottest team in the NBA, they are on the road where they have a winning record and have a winning ATS record and they do face a Minnesota team they have beaten 9 of their last 10 times. These two teams are clearly headed in opposite directions and the Mavs smell blood in the Western Conference. With the Lakers' loss to Orlando yesterday, Dallas now sits just 3 games out for the top spot and with a win tonight they get to within 2 1/2. And I like how this team is playing in Jason Terry's absence as Rodrique Beaubois has been tearing it up since taking over his job. Beaubois scored 24 points, dished out 5 assists and added 5 boards in Dallas' 122-116 win over Chicago. Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood have also been welcomed additions to this team and have given the Mavs a great sense of confidence during this impressive string of wins. I like Dallas big today boys, let's ride the hottest team in the NBA to another double digit win.
2♦ DALLAS
Brett Atkins
Easy free winner on Sunday as Minnesota destroyed Iowa and improved my comp play record to 13-9 over the last 22 days. Tonight I have another college winner for you as I lay the chalk with Old Dominion in the CAA title game against William & Mary.
Old Dominion needed overtime in the semifinals to get to this title game, but they aren’t going to need it tonight as the Monarchs will stomp all over William & Mary.
They have beaten the Tribe four straight times dating back to last season and blew them out 61-42 this season as a 12-point favorite. Gerald Lee’s 26 points paced Old Dominion on Sunday as they controlled the tempo with good shot selection, shooting just below 50 percent from the field.
William & Mary can’t score enough to win tonight. Play Old Dominion.
3♦ OLD DOMINION
Joel Tyson
Sunday comp winner on Florida plus the points.
10-3 free play heading into Monday night.
Deja Vu all over again for St. Mary's, as the Gaels will once again get stopped by their nemesis, Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs swept the regular season pair of meetings both straight up, and against the spread, and they have also won the last 6 series meetings, covering the last 3, and 4 of those 6.
Yeah, the Gaels have had another great season, but they just can't seem to get over the hump against the 'Zags.
Lay the points!
4♦ GONZAGA
Chuck O'Brien
Take Gonzaga and lay the points against St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference tournament championship game from Las Vegas.
Can’t deny the fact that Gonzaga has had the Gaels’ number the last two-plus seasons, winning six straight meetings, and five of them haven’t really been close. That has to be in the head of the St. Mary’s players going into this game. In fact, St. Mary’s has lost just five games all year, and two of those were to Gonzaga (and another came 48 hours after the second loss to Gonzaga, an ugly 80-61 setback).
Last year when these teams met in the WCC championship game, the Bulldogs went off as a 7½-point favorite in Las Vegas … and they won 83-58, shooting 54.8% from the field (9-for-18 from three-point range) while holding St. Mary’s to 28.8% (3-for-17 from downtown). And while you could argue a revenge angle here because of that result, don’t you think the Gaels were in revenge mode back on Jan. 14 when they lost at home to Gonzaga 89-82 as a 4½-point home favorite? Subsequent to that, don’t you think the Gaels were in revenge mode a month later when they suffered that 19-point loss at Gonzaga as a 5½-point underdog?
You see it all the time in basketball where some matchups are mismatches, and this Gonzaga-St. Mary’s rivalry is one of them. Not only are the Bulldogs the better team, but they’ve got a massive confidence edge coming into this game – and because longtime Zags coach Mark Few is so good at what he does, I highly doubt the Bulldogs will cross that line from confidence to overconfidence/cockiness.
4♦ GONZAGA
Matt Fargo
Fairfield vs. SIENA
Play: Fairfield +7.5
Siena guns for its third straight MAAC Tournament Championship on its home floor. The Saints have made it to the final game without being very dominant and actually trailing at the half in the first two games of this tournament. They cannot afford to let that happen again against a team that matches up extremely well and poses a lot of problems. The NCAA Tournament projectionists are saying that if Siena does not win this tournament, it likely will not get an at-large bid into the Big Dance so this is definitely a huge game for both sides. In the previous two Championship games, the Saints were favored by 3.5 and 4 points and now they are favored by twice as much and while I could see that if they were playing a lower seeded team but they aren’t. It can be argued that there actually is value in this number for Siena based on the first meeting in Albany when it was favored by 11.5 points over Fairfield and now the line has dropped. Even though it is the Saints home floor, it is still considered a neutral game as the Stags will have representation in the arena. We will see a lot of public action on the “home team” considering that the Saints have won 37 straight games in this building. No offense to Manhattan and Rider but Fairfield is the second seed in this tournament for a reason. The Stags lost the previous two meetings to Siena this year but both were tight including a two-point setback in this arena exactly one month ago. No other team came closer than six against the Saints at the Times Union Center this season. Fairfield has actually covered four straight games at Siena including two outright wins so the intimidation factor of that 37-game winning streak is not a problem. As far as the matchup here, with Anthony Johnson and Ryan Olander down low, the Stags have a frontcourt capable of defending and scoring against Siena's post players. Fairfield also shoots well from beyond the arc, and Siena struggles to defend the three. Fairfield is 9-2 ATS in the MAAC this season away from home and it is a solid 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games facing double-revenge. The Stags are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a win by six points or less while the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win of any kind. 3* Fairfield Stags
Tony George
Golden State vs. New Orleans
Play: Golden State +6.5
While I do not like backing NBA teams on a 5th game road trip, I cannot ignore the fact for the Hornets they have dropped 6 out 7 games SU, and on offense are struggling to find the right mix with Chris Paul still out. This is a big number to lay for a mediocre team. The Warriors have played well and competed with a short roster, but they are used to playing with little bench support. This is more of a play against a struggling Hornets team, than a play for Golden State. There is double revenge here for the Warriors at play. This is a big number in the NBA in what should be a high scoring game as the Warriors hate playing any defense, but I think they can score here and have a better backcourt in this Match-up. I will grab the points against a struggling team.