NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (4-6 SU and ATS)
The Magic look to complete a four-game sweep of the Hawks when the Southeast Division rivals meet for Game 4 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series inside Philips Arena.
Orlando’s domination of this series continued Saturday with a 105-75 road win as 2½-point favorite. The Magic shot 50.7 percent from the field and held the Hawks to 34.9 percent shooting, and Orlando also had a whopping 51-24 rebounding edge. All-Star center Dwight Howard led the way with 21 points and 16 rebounds, while Rashard Lewis added 22 points as five Magic players reached double digits in points.
Jamal Crawford (22 points), Josh Smith (15 points, 11 rebounds) and Al Horford (11 points, eight rebounds) were the only Hawks who showed up in Game 3. The trio combined to make 18 of 43 field goals (41.8 percent), while the rest of the team was 11-for-40 (27.5 percent).
Orlando has now won 13 games in a row dating to the regular season (12-1 ATS), including seven straight postseason victories (6-1 ATS). The Magic’s average margin of victory in the playoffs is 17.7 points per game, including wins over Atlanta of 43, 14 and 30 points.
Orlando has won and covered in nine of the last 10 meetings with Atlanta dating to January 2009, going 6-1 SU and ATS this year. Additionally, the Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta, and the favorite has cashed in six straight in this rivalry. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in 20 straight Hawks-Magic battles, and the winner is on a huge 25-0-1 ATS surge in Atlanta’s last 26 playoff games.
The Magic are 28-16 (25-18-1 ATS) on the highway this season and have won 11 of their last 12 away from home (9-3-1 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs. Despite the Game 3 debacle, Atlanta has been superb at home this season at 37-9 (28-18 ATS), averaging 103.7 ppg while allowing just 95.1. The Hawks went 3-1 SU and ATS at Philips Arena in the opening round against Milwaukee.
Orlando is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 22-7-1 overall (12-1 last 13), 5-0 on the road, 4-0 on Monday, 39-18-1 against Southeast Division teams, 22-5-1 as a favorite, 14-3 as a road favorite, 7-0-1 after getting one day off and 5-0 in conference semifinal action. Atlanta, swept out of the conference semifinals a season ago by the Cavs (0-3-1 ATS), has cashed in four of six home games, but it is otherwise on pointspread skids of 2-6 overall, 2-7 after a non-cover, 2-9 against Southeast Division teams, 1-7 after a straight-up loss and 0-6-1 in conference semifinal action.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of 12 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” streaks of 53-23-1 after one day off, 6-2-1 as a playoff favorite, 7-1 against winning teams and 6-1 in conference semifinal action. Atlanta carries “over” trends of 20-9 after a non-cover and 8-3 as an underdog, but it is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-3 after a straight-up loss, 9-3 as a playoff underdog and 7-1 against teams with a winning record.
In head-to-head action between these rivals, the under has been the play in seven of eight overall, seven of nine in Georgia and two of three in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (6-2, 3-5 ATS) at Utah (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers will try to sweep the Jazz out of the playoffs when this best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series resumes inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
Los Angeles stole Game 3 on Saturday, rallying for a 111-110 victory as a 4½-point underdog, as Utah point-guard Deron Williams missed a potential game-winning jumper and a follow-up tip-in rimmed out at the buzzer. The Lakers’ used an 8-2 run in the final minute to overcome a five-point deficit, and the surge was keyed by three-pointers from Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, who finished with 35 and 20 points, respectively. Pau Gasol chipped in with 14 points and 17 rebounds and Ron Artest had his best offensive performance of the playoffs with 20 points.
Williams finished with 28 points in defeat, and Kyle Korver chipped in 23 for the Jazz, who lost despite shooting 48.1 percent overall and 45.5 percent from three-point land (10-for-22). Utah also had 10 more points from the free-throw line and held a 42-39 rebounding edge after getting out-boarded 100-79 in the first two games.
The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), and split two games in Utah.
Overall, Los Angeles is on a 21-6 roll against the Jazz overall (17-9-1 ATS).
The Lakers are 25-20 (19-25-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped six of their last nine (SU and ATS) overall on the highway, including going 1-2 SU and ATS in Oklahoma City in the opening round. Conversely, the Jazz have dominated in front of the home fans, winning 35 of 45 games (29-14-2 ATS) this season. Despite Saturday’s setback, the Jazz have won 13 of 15 in Salt Lake City (11-4 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS in three first-round home games against Denver.
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a playoff ‘dog, but it is still on negative ATS streaks of 1-8-1 on Monday, 3-6 on the road, 3-8 after a straight-up win and 2-11 after a spread-cover. The Jazz are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 36-18-3 overall, 37-16-2 as a favorite, 18-7-2 as a home favorite, 21-8 after a straight-up loss, 27-11 on Monday and 4-2-1 as a playoff favorite.
The Lakers have topped the total in six of seven overall, four straight after just one day off, four of five on the road, four of five after a straight-up win and six of seven against Western Conference foes, but they are on “under” streaks of 12-5 as a road ‘dog and 7-3 against winning teams. On the opposite side, Utah has stayed below the posted number in 11 of 16 at home against teams with winning road records and seven of 10 against winning teams, but it is on “over” runs of 6-0 overall, 7-0 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 as a playoff favorite and 6-0 in conference semifinal action.
In this rivalry, the over has cashed in all three games of this playoff series, which comes on the heels of a 7-0 “under” run in this rivalry. The under is still 4-1 in the last five battles in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-9) at Detroit (17-14)
The surging Yankees, in the midst of a seven-game road trip, open a four-game series at Comerica Park with Sergio Mitre (0-0, 2.79) slated to come out of the bullpen and make his first start of the season while the Tigers counter with veteran lefty Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99).
New York had a six-game winning streak snapped in Boston on Sunday night, falling 9-3 and failing to complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox. Still, New York comes into this one having won nine of 11, going 4-1 on the road during this stretch. The defending world champs are on additional surges of 40-16 overall, 40-14 against the A.L. Central, 45-21 versus left-handed starters and 6-2 in series openers
Detroit has followed up a five-game winning streak (all at home) by losing four of five (all on the road), including Sunday’s 7-4 setback in Cleveland to end a rain-shortened two-game weekend series with the Indians. The Tigers have won nine of 12 at Comerica this season, and they’re 45-22 in their last 67 home contests. Jim Leyland’s club has also won five of seven against the A.L. East, but it has dropped six of eight series openers.
Detroit beat New York 4-2 in last year’s first meeting (in Motown), but the Yankees came back to win the final five clashes by a combined score of 28-11. Prior to a three-game home sweep by New York last July, the visitor had won seven of nine in this rivalry. In fact, the Yankees are 4-1 in their last five in Detroit.
Mitre, who is starting in place of injured Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte, has made five relief appearances this year, allowing three runs, five hits and four walks in 9 2/3 innings. Mitre made 27 starts for the Marlins in 2007 (5-8, 4.65 ERA), didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2008 and made 12 appearances (nine starts) with New York last season. In those nine starts, the right-hander surrendered 41 runs (35 earned) in 44 innings (7.16 ERA).
Mitre has a 2.08 ERA in three road outings this year, but for his career, he’s 8-14 with a 6.25 ERA in 47 career games (31 starts) on the highway. He’s never pitched against Detroit.
Willis gave up three runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings at Minnesota on Tuesday, getting a no-decision in the Tigers’ 4-3 loss to the Twins. Willis has given up three runs or fewer in four of his five starts this year, and he’s 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three outings. In two home starts, Willis is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA.
Willis has faced the Yankees just once in his career – back in a 2006 interleague game at Yankee Stadium when he was with the Marlins – and he gave up two runs on seven hits in eight innings, but lost, 2-1.
New York is riding “over” streaks of 7-2 overall, 36-17-3 on the road, 9-2 on the road against lefty starters and 10-3 versus winning teams. However, the under is 7-2-2 in the Yankees’ last 11 Monday contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 4-0 against the A.L. East, 9-1 on Monday and 3-1-1 in series openers, but the under is 8-3 in Willis’ last 11 starts overall and 6-1-1 in his last eight home starts.
Finally, five of the last seven Yankees-Tigers contests in Motown have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Orlando at Atlanta
The Magic look to close out the series and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite. Orlando is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6)
Game 729-730: Orlando at Atlanta (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 132.861; Atlanta 121.161
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 11 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6; 193
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6); Under
Game 731-732: LA Lakers at Utah (10:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.375; Utah 120.974
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3; 207
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3); Under
MLB
NY Yankees at Detroit
The Yankees look to build on their 5-0 record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.019; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.292
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.179; NY Mets (Maine) 16.518
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-155); Under
Game 955-956: Florida at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Robertson) 14.127; Cubs (Lilly) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 957-958: Atlanta at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.134; Milwaukee (Davis) 16.477
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Under
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:40p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.332; Colorado (Smith) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.551; Arizona (Lopez) 14.352
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 12
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Over
Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mitre) 16.664; Detroit (Willis) 15.382
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Over
Game 965-966: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.831; Boston (Lackey) 16.436
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Over
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.112; LA Angels (Pineiro) 13.571
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under
NHL
Philadelphia at Boston
The Flyers are coming off a 5-4 OT win in Game 4 and look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in the previous game. Philadelphia is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125)
Game 11-12: Philadelphia at Boston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 13.364; Boston 12.684
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Under
Game 13-14: Pittsburgh at Montreal (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.639; Montreal 11.352
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-170); Over
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Braves open a three-game set with the Brewer when Tommy Hanson takes on Doug Davis in Milwaukee Monday evening. Hanson enters tonight's game in terrific KW form with four walks against 20 strikeouts in his last three starts. On the flip side, Davis is in struggling current form with an 8.33 ERA in his six starts this season and just 5-11 in his last 16 team starts in may, including 1-4 his last five at home. With that we'll back the better team with the better arm here tonight.
Matt Fargo
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati hits the road after a successful 4-2 homestand to move to a game over .500 on the season but the road has not been as kind. The Reds are 4-7 in their last 11 games away from home and three of those losses already took place in Pittsburgh where they were swept back in mid-April. They are hitting only .228 on the road this year which is fifth worse in all of baseball. After sweeping the Cubs, the Pirates lost their series to the Cardinals two games to one but they have a good chance to bounce back Monday. The weekend series against St. Louis was a tough one as Pittsburgh had to face Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Adam Wainwright who are a combined 12-3 with a 2.06 ERA so getting one game from that series should be considered an accomplishment. The Pirates now take a big step down in class as they face Bronson Arroyo who is off to a bad start this season. He started the year with a quality start against the Cardinals but he has only one quality performance over his last five games as his ERA has ballooned to 6.14. He has been up and down against the Pirates over the years and already in one start against them this season, he allowed five runs in six innings in a 5-3 loss. The Pirates counter with Russ Ohlendorf who is making his first start since coming off the disabled list due to back spasms. He reported no problems in a four-inning rehab start at Altoona on Wednesday where he tossed four shutout innings against Richmond. Ohlendorf was very solid last season with a 3.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 29 starts and that included a quality start against the Reds in his lone start against them. The Reds are 17-37 in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Pirates are 12-4 in Ohlendorf’s last 16 home starts. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Rays vs. LAA Angels
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay will look to bounce back after being the victim of Dallas Bradens perfect game. Tonight they make a short stop to take on the Angels. They are a terrific 13-3 on the road and 8-1 as road favorites in this range the past 3 years. When playing teams under .500 they have cashed 14 of 17 times. Tonight they catch an Angels team that is having trouble at the plate hitting just .213 the past week. The Angels also have a bullpen era over five. Tampa has a solid road bullpen era of 1.82. Tonight they have M.Garza on the mound and they have cashed 5 of his 6 games this year. Garza has been fantastic with a 1.12 era over his last 3 starts. The Angels counter with J. Pineiro and he has been very hittable of late and has a 9.98 era over his past 3 starts. Look for the Rays to bounce back tonight. Take Tampa.
BIG AL
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: New York Yankees
It's a bit of a half-empty/half-full situation for Tigers starter Dontrelle Willis so far. The half-full part is that the veteran lefthander has bounced back from a disastrous 2009 season (1-4; 7.49 ERA) to post a 3.99 ERA so far for his team. The half-empty part is that Willis only has a single win over his first five starts and he is clearly still miles away from the form he showed early in his career with Florida when he was looking like one of the top young lefthanders in baseball. He really has his work cut out for him today, as the Yankees are not only the top hitting team in the AL, but they are also far and away the top hitting squad in all of baseball vs. lefthanders. Coming into this week, the Bronx Bombers lineup sported a scorching .911 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) vs. southpaw pitching. The Yanks will send righthander Sergio Mitre to the mound for a rare spot start this evening, and as far as spot starters go, Mitre is not half-bad. In fact, he could probably make the top half of a couple of MLB rotations. Mitre has an excellent 2.79 ERA so far this season, and he has plenty of prior experience as a starter. Take the Yankees.
David Chan
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
Take the Diamondbacks, backing Rodrigo Lopez over Chad Billingsley
Chad Billingsley and Rodrigo Lopez squared off on April 14; neither looked good nor factored into the decision as the D-Backs won 9-7 in 11 innings. Arizona is the play here as we pick up home field and a little juice in a game where the sides look otherwise relatively well-matched.
Chad Billingsley has had three good starts and three ugly outings so far. Lopez has had the same fate. While Billingsley is the household name, Lopez actually has the better ERA (4.14 to 5.06) and WHIP (1.38 to 1.59).
Both these offenses can explode at any given moment. This is one of those bets you put in the “grinder” basket, where we think we have 15 to 20 cents the best of it and we hope to eke out four or five units in the run of the year.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Orlando @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +6.5
With their backs against the wall, and after three sub par efforts, I believe the Hawks will play their best game of this series as they catch what I believe will be a somewhat complacent Magic team that will look to wrap things up in Game 5 on their home floor:
Orlando has man-handled the Hawks and hasn't lost a game in over a month; I expect a letdown here though against a determined, talented, and desperate Atlanta team.
Interestingly, Orlando is in fact a poor 4-6 ATS this year in road games where the total is between 190 and 194 1/2.
On the other side of the court: Poor road team; great home team.
Atlanta has once again run into a wall in the second round though.
When this series started, I believed the Hawks would get at least one game, so am as surprised as many of the Atlanta players are themselves about being down 3-0; “The chemistry, it’s OK,” Al Horford said. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.”
And although it might lose again tonight, I expect Atlanta to play with some pride and keep this one close down the stretch.
Don't forget as well, that the Hawks have excelled in this spot all year; 8-2 ATS this season after scoring 85 points or less in their previous contest.
Bottom line: Atlanta has shown little "heart" in this Round 2 matchup so far, but I think it still has some fight left in it; consider a second look at the Hawks in this situation.
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Braves -131
Doug Davis return to Milwaukee has not been a good one for the Brewers starting pitcher. Davis picked up his first win of the season in his last start, even though he gave up seven hits and three runs in just 5 1/3 innings. In five previous starts this season Davis was 0-3 with a 8.87 ERA and he didn't have much success against Atlanta last season as he was 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Braves. Atlanta's starting pitcher Tommy Hanson has pitched better than his 2-2 record would indicate as his ERA is only 2.83 on the season, but Hanson has been the victum of a lack of run support this season. I like the Braves bats to give Hanson that support today against the struggling Doug Davis. The Brewers are only 1-6 in their last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Play on Atlanta.
JIM FEIST
RAYS / ANGELS
TAKE: UNDER
The Tampa Bay Rays have the distinction of being the team to have the last two perfect games thrown against them after Sunday's perfecta by Oakland A's pitcher Dallas Braden. What's surprising this time is that the Rays have been the best team in baseball thus far and averaged a league second best 174 runs scored. However, the Rays have been slumping a bit, evidenced by their .189 batting average over the last nine games. But good news today for the Rays, they get Matt Garza on the hill. Garza is 5-1 this season with a sparkling 2.09 ERA. The Angels meanwhile are in a slump of their own. LA opens a homestand tonight after a disappointing 2-8 road trip, including a 8-1 loss at Seattle on Sunday. In that contest the Angels were 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Joel Pineiro takes the ball for the Halos and hopes to build on a solid outing last time out. Pineiro is coming off a six inning, two earned run performance against the Red Sox last Wednesday. I look for a low scoring game here on Monday as both teams are slumping with the lumber and with a solid Garza on the mound along with a improving Pineiro, I look for the game to go UNDER the total.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his 6 starts this year. The Rays are 45-16 vs. losing teams and they are 19-7 vs. righty starters. The Rays are 14-3 their last 17 road games and they are 20-8 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 130. The Angels are 2-8 their last 10 games overall and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. righty starters. Los Angeles is 1-6 off a loss and they are 0-4 vs. AL East teams and they are 0-4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -113
After getting swept by Pittsburgh last month, the Reds will be extremely motivated to return the favor. Plus, even with that sweep, the Reds are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. Arroyo has been solid against the Pirates in his career with an ERA of 3.57 and the Reds are 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. the National League Central. The Reds are also 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 25-6 in their last 31 games overall vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 17-36 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record and 39-81 in their last 120 vs. the National League Central. Take the Reds.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.62 over BOSTON
Tough to ignore the Blue Jays at this price especially when you consider how warm they are and that the Red Sox are coming off a three game set with the Yanks. Furthermore, the Jays are striving away from home with a 12-4 record and after yesterday’s win they’ve now won seven of eight. If Brandon Morrow can avoid walking people he’ll be in very good shape. He’s struck out eight batters in four straight games and overall his BAA is just .223. Walks have killed this guy but he’s walked two batters or less in three of his past five starts. He also has 42 K’s in 33.2 innings and again, he has to get ahead of hitter’s and you can be damn sure that’s what he’s working on. There’s no denying that Morrow has great stuff and huge potential. John Lackey could be tough on any given day. He doesn’t strike out as many as he used to but doesn’t need to, as his groundball % is consistently high every year. He’s had just one bad outing this season against the Rays but he’s also faced the Orioles twice and the Angels. He’s thrown a lot of pitches over his last three starts and after beating his former team in his last start, perhaps we can catch him in a bit of a letdown spot here. Anyway, this choice is much more about taking back this tag on Morrow and the Jays than it is about going against Lackey. Play: Toronto +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.41 over CHICAGO
Ted Lilly had off-season arthroscopic shoulder and knee surgeries and thus far, he’s shown he has not fully recovered or at least he’s lost something. He’s already allowed four bombs in 17 innings and his one start at home was a complete disaster. He’s never had good numbers against the Marlins and that’s when he appeared a lot sharper than he does right now. Lilly has allowed 10 runs in 17 innings or work and let’s not ignore who he pitches for. The Cubbies are one of the most unappealing big favorites in the league. They lose more than they win, they’re pen is a mess, Lou Pinella doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going and they’ve lost five of its last six games to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Marlins aren’t going much better but they’ve lost five of six to San Fran and Washington and they’re not laying 3/2. They’ve also been unlucky, as they’re losing by a run or two while the Cubbies are frequently getting slaughtered. In fact, three of the Cubs last six losses were by scores of 13-5, 11-1 and 14-7. Nate Robertson is a roll of the dice but he’s had four decent outings that include a game Philadelphia in which he did not allow a run and pitched into the seventh inning and he and the Marlins are definitely worth a play in this spot at this price. Play: Florida +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE +1.22 over Atlanta
The Braves remain one of the most overvalued teams in the majors and that’s likely because of a great history over the past two decades. They’ve been on the decline now for at least two years and they certainly don’t have much appeal as the chalk here. For one, Jason Heyward and Chipper Jones missed yesterday and they’re likely to sit again today. Over its last four games the Braves are hitting a combined .172 and that includes three games at hitter-friendly Philadelphia. Tommy Hanson is good and he’s the only reason the Braves are favored here but the Brewers had great success against him last year when they tagged him for eight runs in 13 innings over two starts. Also note that the Brewers are seeing beach balls right now and in fact, they’ve scored 51 times over its last five games and that includes back-to-back, 11-run outbursts at the always tough on hitters, Dodger Stadium. Doug Davis has run into a ton of hard luck and has pitched so much better than his numbers suggest. He’s not walking nearly as many people as he has in the past and in fact, has 12 walks and 28 K’s in 27.1 innings. He also has a very high groundball percentage and a close look reveals an incredibly high infield hit percentage of 10.2% (The league norm is about 6%). Furthermore, the Braves are 1-5 on the road against lefties and own the worst numbers in the league against left-handed pitchers in just about every hitting category. Milwaukee is hot while the Braves are cold and banged up badly and it’s not just physical. Play: Milwaukee +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia/COLORADO over 10½
This one might produce 30 runs. The winds are not unfavorable, as it’s blowing out to right-center at 15MPH. Greg Smith has an 8.31 ERA at Coors this season over three starts covering 13 innings. In those 13 innings the opposition has gone yard on him four times and his BAA is .346. In his last start at Coors the Rockies lost 12-11 to the D-Backs and he sure does not get a break here against the Phillies. Kyle Kendricks is almost as untrustworthy as Smith. He’s brutal to begin with but at Coors Field he’s even worse. He’s made two career starts at this park and has surrendered 18 hits and two bombs over 11 frames. The Rockies hit .367 against him and his ERA over those two starts was 6.55. Play: Colorado/Philadelphia over 10½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
James Patrick Sports
Yankees vs. Tigers
Dontrelle Willis gets the ball from MGR Jim Leyland to open this series and the bad news is that New York hits left handed pitching better than any other American League team with a (.904) on base percentage as a team. The Yankees are (4-1) in the "Motor City" and Big Game James Patrick's Monday night selection in Big League action is New York Yankees.
Scott Spreitzer
Yankees @ Detroit
Pick: Tigers
Due to Andy Pettitte's inflamed elbow, the rotation will include a start by Sergio Mitre on Monday night. Mitre has pitched well in relief so far this season, but I expect him to struggle a bit as a starter at Comerica. Mitre's overall numbers are pretty bad. He owns a lifetime 5.49 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and .298 BAA in 95 appearances, including 61 starts. The majority of his career has been spent in the National League, which explains why he has never pitched in this stadium. But in 91 2/3 innings of American League action, Mitre has been smacked for a 6.28 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His strikeout ratio is just 4.51 per 9 IP. The righthander will face a Detroit lineup that's 7-2 in home games against righties this season, scoring an average of 6.22 rpg. Dontrelle Willis will go for the Tigers tonight. The "D-Train" has looked better in his last two outings. He's also catching the Yankees at the "right" time tonight. New York is off their big series with Boston, and except for the first two games of that series, the top four in the Yanks' lineup have not been producing. Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira, and A-Rod, reverted to earlier form last night, going just 3 for 13 combined, a .231 batting average. I believe Detroit's in the better spot tonight. It's "upset alert" at Comerica, and I'm backing the home underdog Tigers on Monday night.