Jorge Gonzalez
Toronto Blue Jays versus the Boston Red Sox
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
The Boston Red Sox (16-16) are coming off a 9-3 win over the New York Yankees in the late Sunday night game. They come right back with a game against the surprising and revenge seeking Toronto Blue Jays (19-14). The Red Son swept a three game series them in their first meeting of the season. Since then the Blue Jays have won nine of 11 games and will be looking to get even for their first meeting sweep. The road team has won the last six straight and nine of the last 12 meetings. The Red Sox will send John Lackey (3-1, 3.89) to the mound to face off against Brandon Marrow (2-2, 5.40). Both offense are playing well over the last 10 games. The Blue Jays are hitting .268 and scoring 6.10 runs per game. The Red Sox are hitting a blistering .301 as a team and scoring a robust 6.60 per game. The difference here will be the pitching. The Blue Jays are giving up 3.7 runs per game while the Red Sox are giving up a generous 6.3 runs per game. The wind will be a factor in this game blowing out to right field. The Blue Jays are the value play here as the underdog!
Rocketman
Toronto @ Boston
Play: Toronto
Toronto is 9-3 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Toronto is 12-4 on the road this year. Toronto is 5-1 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Toronto is 7-2 this year when playing in May. Toronto is 11-2 this year when playing on grass. Toronto has won 7 of their last 8 games overall. Toronto is scoring 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Brandon Morrow has a 3.64 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
We’ll take the under in the Orlando vs. Atlanta matchup tonight, as the Hawks tend to slow down the pace in elimination games. They had two such occurrences in their series against the Bucks, which resulted in combined scores of 152 and 169 – both well under the posted total. And with Orlando going under the total at nearly a 2-1 clip (22-12 Under) as a road favorite this year, we look for a low scoring game tonight!
Play on: Under
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -150
Of these two struggling clubs, the Cubs have the better chance of finding the win column tonight when you consider they are at home and they have the better starter on the hill. The Marlins have lost 4 of their last 5 in Chicago and they figure to have their work cut out for themselves against Ted Lilly, who is 21-6 on the money line in his last 27 home starts. The Marlins have lost 13 of their last 17 series openers and they are 0-3 in Nate Robertson's last 3 starts. We'll side with the Cubs at home in this one.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -136
Off back-to-back losses and allowing Dallas Braden to pitch a perfect game against them Sunday, the Rays bounce back Monday in blowout fashion. Matt Garza goes for Tampa Bay and he's 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.070 WHIP on the season. Garza has been at his best on the road, going 3-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.875 WHIP away from home. Meanwhile, the Angels have been getting terrible results from Joel Pineiro, an offseason signee. Pineiro is 2-4 with a 5.30 ERA this season, and recently he has been even worse. Pineiro is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 9.98 ERA and 2.218 WHIP. He has given up 17 earned runs and 37 base runners in only 15.3 innings of work.
The Rays are 13-3 on the road this season and 22-9 for the year. Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. They are winning these games by an average of 5.1 RPG. The Rays are 9-1 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season, winning by 5.3 RPG. The Angels simply aren't the same team they have been over the past few years as they've lost a lot of talent in the offseason. Pineiro is overmatched tonight against Garza. Take the Rays.
Stan Lisowski
ORLANDO
The Magic look to close out this series with the Hawks and continue the dominance it has had so far, with all 6 wins by at least 14 points. Orlando is 22-14 ATS on the road off of a win this year. Eastern conference favorites are on a 12-6 spread run in round 2.
Ben Burns
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Atlanta Braves
It's true that the Braves have really struggled on the road. However, that's not Tommy Hanson's fault. Hanson has a 2.65 ERA in his three road starts and the Braves have won two of those games. Looking back further and we find that Hanson has NEVER allowed more than four earned runs in any of his 13 big league road starts and that he allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of those. He finished last season with a 4-2 record and 2.61 ERA on the road. He did lose his only start at Miller Park - that wasn't his fault either though, as he allowed two earned runs through seven innings. The Braves didn't give him any run support in that game, but they should provide him with some here, even if Jones and Heyward aren't available.
Davis was ok (for him) last time out, allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings and earning his first victory. However, he's still 1-3 with a terrible 8.13 ERA and 2.061 WHIP on the season, averaging less than five innings per start.
While I've already noted that the Braves have struggled on the road, it's also worth mentioning that the Brewers haven't been particularly good at home either. They're just 4-8 here on the season. The Braves have won three of their last four here and I feel that they've got a great chance at starting this series off with a much-needed victory. Consider Atlanta
Glenn McGrew
Lakers at Jazz
Hard to see the Lakers as a dog, up 3-0 in this series having really dominated play overall. They are one victory away from only their 13th sweep in 100 best-of-seven series since their 1948-49 inception. It would do wonders for their aches and pains, creating several days before their next game. The Lakers excelled from long range in Game 3, making 13 of 29 from beyond the arc, but they'll probably try to go inside in Game 4, where they have several huge edges. Take the points with the defending champs. Play the LA Lakers in Game 4.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Colorado set to start at 8:40 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 75-43 making 32.3 units since 1997. Play against home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season and has a well rested bullpen having thrown 3 innings or less over last 2 games. Phillies offense is the best in the NL and don?t forget they have been going through a period with significant injuries to starters, bullpen, and Jimmy Rollins. There is not a pitching staff in MLB that can consistently shut down this offense. Colorado is just 3-10 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. Another reason Philadelphia has ben so good over the past several seasons is that they win the games that are projected to be close contests. Phillies are 32-16 (+16.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Kendrick is getting into top form and he is coming off a 7 inning start allowing ZERO ER on 6 hits in a 4-0 Phillies win against the Cardinals. Rockies starter Smith is coming off a 5 inning start allowing just 1 ER, BUT he allowed 5 BB. The last team a starter with control issues wants to face is the Phillies. Not only are the Phillies powerful and score an abundance of runs, they do it with tremendous patience. Working deep counts is going to hurt Smith greatly. Take the Phillies.
Hollywood Sports
Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
While the Cubbies are a fairly expensive -150 to -160 favorite tonight, they are well worth the investment on Monday night. The Cubs have won four of their last five games with Lilly on the hill priced in the -150 to -200 range. Frankly, the Cubbies would probably be even bigger favorites if it were not for Lilly's slow start that has him at 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA on the season. But Lilly loves pitching at Wrigley Field. Last year, he had a sparkling 1.87 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .214. He should thrive against a Marlins' club that has lost four of their last five against lefties. Florida sends out Nate Robertson who is 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA. Robertson's meager performances are typically worse in unfriendly atmospheres. Last year, Robertson had a 5.41 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .287 on the road which significantly different than his 4.49 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .275 opponent's batting average at home. The Cubs love facing lefties at Wrigley as well given their 35-16 record versus left-handed starters in their last 51 home games. The Marlins have lost four of their last five road games as well. Play the money line on the Cubs while listing both pitchers.
Craig Trapp
Magic vs. Hawks
Play: Over 193
ATL can't stop Howard and company so their only chance is to get this one into an up and down game. Shooting has not been a problem for ORL as they are shooting over 45% for the playoffs. Three point shooting will really help as both ORL and ATL love to chuck it up from deep. ATL will be much more physical tonight which will spell a ton of foul shots for both. This one will be like game 2 in which these two score over 210! Enjoy the over
LARRY NESS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
Clayton Kershaw out-dueled Ubaldo Jimenez on Sunday, as the Dodgers beat the Rockies 2-0. As for the D'backs, the team's 6-1 home loss to the Brewers allowed Milwaukee to sweep Arizona in the three-game series. The D'backs own the second-worst ERA in all of MLB (5.50) and have allowed 50 HRs, nine more than any other team. LA opens a six-game road trip with the first of three games in Chase Field tonight. Chad Billingsley gets the start. Billingsley was expected to be a mainstay in the LA rotation just a year or so ago but since the middle of last season, he's looked like nothing more than a .500 pitcher. He went 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 2007 (42 appearances, including 20 starts) and then 16-10 (3.14 ERA) in 2008 (35 appearances, 32 starts). However, he struggled down the stretch last year, ending 12-11 with a 4.03 ERA (team was 17-15 in his starts). He's 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in six starts this year with LA going 2-4. Arizona counters with Rodrigo Lopez. Lopez has been around for awhile now, as last Wednesday was his 200th appearance (172nd career start). "He's very polished, a veteran guy who knows what he's doing," said D-backs manager AJ Hinch. Lopez is no star but he's given up two runs or fewer in four of his six starts in 2010. Let's NOT forget that LA is 4-11 on the road this season and at minus-$919 vs the money line, ranks second-worst among all MLB teams away from home. Take Arizona.
TEDDY COVERS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ve bet against Arizona repeatedly through the first five weeks of the season, cashing ticket after ticket thanks to one Diamondbacks bullpen implosion after the next. It makes very little difference who the D-backs starting pitcher is, because that suspect bullpen can’t hold any leads. The D-backs got swept by the Brewers this past weekend, despite getting seven strong innings from their starter in two of the three games. Arizona’s bullpen allowed 14 runs in seven innings of work through the three game set. Arizona’s team ERA is the second worst in the majors, and they’ve allowed 50 home runs; nine more than any other team in baseball.
All of this is very bad news against a Dodgers team that has started to play well of late, winning six of their last nine ballgames. With a healthy Manny Ramirez back in the lineup, LA snuck past Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez yesterday, arguably the best pitcher in baseball so far this year. LA hammered Arizona starter Rodrigo Lopez for eleven hits and five runs in five innings of work when these two teams met last month. The Dodgers have won five series and split a sixth in their last seven series against Arizona. The price is right to support them again tonight. 2* Take the LA Dodgers.
Info Plays
3* on Milwaukee Brewers +108
Reasons the Brewers win:
1.) System play. We'll Play On - Any team (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. The Brewers' pitching staff dominated the Diamondbacks last series, going 3-0 while outscoring Arizona 26-6. Look for Doug Davis to keep it going tonight against a struggling Braves' line-up. Davis is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in seven lifetime starts vs. Atlanta.
2.) Milwaukee is hitting .282 and putting up 6.0 RPG against righty starters this season. The Braves are hitting .217 on the road and scoring 3.2 RPG this season. Atlanta is also hitting .232 and scoring 3.3 RPG against left-handed starters this year. For what slight edge the Braves have on the mound tonight, the Brewers clearly make up for it with one of the best line-ups in the big leagues. Bet Milwaukee at home.
Black Widow
1* on New York Mets -151
John Maine has been virtually un-hittable recently against the Washington Nationals. Maine has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts vs. Washington. Maine is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts against the Nationals, and he has allowed 4 earned runs in his last 28.2 innings pitched at home vs. Washington. That's why we have no problem laying this juice on the Mets at home Monday. The Mets are 10-3 in Maine's 13 lifetime starts against the Nationals. Maine is coming on strong of late, going 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Luis Atilano has been respectable for Washington, but we'll bet against his 4.67 ERA and 1.616 WHIP any day. He gave up 6 earned runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in his last start, losing 6-7 to the Braves. Maine is 10-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Mets on the Money Line.