Ben Burns
Atlanta vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
This line falls in the pick'em range. I feel that's providing some value with the home team, in this "all-southpaw" affair.
Minor and Miley have both pitched well. Both are off victories last time out. Minor has a 4-2 record and a 2.96 ERA. Miley has a 3-1 record and a 2.93 ERA.
However, a closer look reveals that Miley has a 1.64 ERA at home while Minor has a 3.55 ERA on the road.
While Minor does have a superior K/W ratio, he's also permitted considerably more home runs. He's given up eight "long balls" while Miley has only surrendered two, including zero at home.
With Justin Upton returning to his old stomping grounds, many are likely going to favor the Braves here. I believe the Dbax, who won't want to be "shown up" by their former teammate, are worth a look though. Consider Arizona
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -120
The Washington Nationals get the nod Monday as a small road favorite over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Washington comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won seven of its last 10 games overall. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has lost eight of its last 10.
The Nationals deserve to be a much heavier favorite considering the massive edge they have on the mound. Jordan Zimmermann is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-0 with a miniscule 0.37 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in his last three starts.
Josh Beckett is clearly past his prime and no longer can dominate like he used to. That's been evident all season as the right-hander is 0-4 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in seven starts, still looking for his first win of 2013.
The Nationals are 10-1 in Zimmermann's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 20-6 in Zimmermann's last 26 starts overall. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Nationals Monday.
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies +111
The Cubs took 2 of 3 from Washington over the weekend, but I don't feel they are worthy of the respect they're getting from oddsmakers here. They are 9-23 in their last 32 games following a win, 3-7 in their last 10 games as a home favorite and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Woods has pitched well this season, but the Cubs 3-10 in his last 13 home starts and 1-7 in his last 8 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Plus, he's 0-2 on the money line in a pair of starts versus Colorado. The Rockies have won 3 of Nicasio's 4 road starts this season. Also, they have won 4 of 5 and 7 of 10 versus the Cubs. Take the Rockies.
Brad Diamond
Washington Nationals -123
The struggling Dodgers took the last two games in the Miami (11-27) series to right their poor May start of eight straight losses. Only there is a major issue on the horizon the Washington Nationals (20-17) come to visit this evening. Washington has won 7-of-10, off back-to-back road losses to the Cubbies. The Nationals are just one game behind first place Atlanta in the east. The Dodgers start Monday 6 ½ games behind San Francisco in the west. Usually, I look for reasons to play against traveling units on an extended road trip when hitting LA and SF to start a Monday set. However, can’t recommend the Dodgers because of the down cycle found in hurler Josh Beckett’s (5+ ERA) control up in the zone. He has given up 8 home runs this season. That’s 2.10 home runs per nine innings of work. With hurler Zimmerman on the hill the Nationals have won 6-of-7 this year. We realize Beckett is 7-2 LT vs. Washington, but I like some of the other techs in the game, including the Dodgers going 0-7 against the last seven winning units.
Jeff Alexander
Braves -101
A pair of nice southpaws take the hill for the Braves and D-backs tonight, but the Braves have the edge because they have fared better against lefties. The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a left-handed starter and are scoring 4.6 runs per game off them this season while hitting them at a .253 clip. Miley has made one start against the Braves, and he was lit up for 5 runs in 4 innings of an 8-1 defeat. Arizona is scoring just 3.8 runs per game this season against southpaw starters while hitting them at a .238 clip. Minor has made one start against the D-backs, and he limited them to 1 earned run in 8 innings of a 10-2 victory. The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 versus Arizona.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls +7.5
The Bulls have now lost two straight in the series and have failed to cover the spread in both games. There's no doubt the public will be on the Heat in Game 4, which is of importance here. Oddsmakers are well aware of the public and yet the current line on this game is a full point less than what we saw Miami favored in Game 3.
In my opinion, that's a pretty good indication that they feel like the Bulls will keep this game close. I couldn't agree more. Chicago is clearly the team with more to play for, as the series is all but over if they lose this game. I'm taking the points as insurance, but I like the Bulls chances of winning this game outright!
The Bulls have been in this situation before and delivered. Chicago is an impressive 13-4 ATS this season off a home loss, a solid 24-10 ATS over their last 34 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Tony George
Memphis -4.5
I do not see OK City winning in Memphis at any time in this series..to much Gasol and Randolf and points in the paint from a stout Memphis team who is physical. and those type of teams trhe Thunder struggle with. No chemistry on offense for OK City, especially on the road. Durrant, much like Mello for the Knicks, cannot do it alone. OK City scoring 94 ppg and allowing 95 ppg their last 5 games, that does not cut it in the NBA Post Season. The starter points is an 11 point advantage for Memphis if you average the last 5 games between these 2 overall, and for OK City losing Westbrook and counting on Fisher to make up the difference is not working.
Joe Gavazzi
Thunder +4.5
Again the fundamentals side with Memphis who leads this series 2 games to 1 on consecutive victories of 6 points. That occurred on Saturday when they held OKC scoreless following an 81-81 tie with 2 minutes remaining (including 2 critical missed foul shots by Durant). And that victory occurred despite OKC being +7 on the boards. But the Memphis defense stepped up once again holding the Thunder to 36%. This is clearly not the same OKC team without Westbrook. Since the game in which he was injured, OKC is 4-4 following a 60-22 regular season. Memphis playing with much greater continuity at 18-1 SU on this court including 4-0 in the Playoffs, the Grizz have now covered 8 straight in the Playoffs. As you would imagine, NBA Playoff zig-zag situations abound with a Game #4 road team off consecutive losses and the home team off 3 or more consecutive spread wins. We search for the middle again based on these strong situations and the fact we are holding Memphis for the series at their underdog price of +140.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA ANGELS -130 over Kansas City: I know that the Halos are off a 6 game road trip and that Joe Blanton has been bad this year, but I feel that they are clearly the right side in this one. Joe Blanton comes in with an 0-6 mark and a 5.66 ERA on the year, but he has pitched much better of late, with a 3.48 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is 0-3 in those starts thanks to an offense that has given him just 1.3 rpg worth of support over that stretch. Well, until last night this is an offense that has shown signs of waking up of late and that offense should get back on track tonight vs Luis Mendoza, who has just been a horrible starter this year and in his career overall. Luis is 12-17 with a 5.16 ERA in his career as a starter and is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA this year. Now unlike Blanton he is getting worse as he has a 9.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Offensively the Royals come in struggling as they have scored just 3.8 rpg and have hit just .216 in their last 5 games. Both starters are struggling, but I will go with the improving offense and improving starter to come up with the big home win here.
Arizona/ Atlanta Under 8: Good pitching matchup tonight should lead to a low scoring game. Wade Miley has pitched well for the D-Backs this year, especially at home, where he has a 1.64 ERA in 2 starts, while overall he has allowed more than 3 ER's just once. Mike Minor has also pitched well this year as he has a 2.96 ERA overall and he also has allowed more than 3 ER's just once this year. Mike does have a 4.38 ERA in his last 3 starts, but just an 0.87 WHIP over that stretch, so he really isn't pitching all that bad. He will also be taking on a struggling Arizona offense that has put up just 2.2 rpg, while hitting .208 in their last 5 games. Atlanta has not been that good at the plate of late either, hitting just .213 and scoring just 3.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Both offenses should continue to struggle in this one as pitching will rule the night in Arizona.
SPORTS WAGERS
MEMPHIS -4½ over Oklahoma City
77% of Game 3 winners when a series is tied 1-1 have gone on to close out the opponent. Memphis, learning and growing from its past mistakes, will not allow the Thunder to win Game 4 on their home-court the same way they did two years ago when the situation was exactly the same and the Thunder came away with the 133-123 victory in triple overtime. Thing is, the situation is not the exact same anymore. Whatever stats and records that the Thunder achieved this season and the past have to be forgotten now that Russell Westbrook won’t be returning. This is a completely different team that now relies exclusively on Kevin Durant to create shots, something he hasn’t had to do since his first season with the Seattle Sonics in 2007-2008.
This series reminds us a lot of the Bad Boys Pistons repeatedly overcoming the Chicago Bulls of the 1980s led by Michael Jordan because those Bulls relied too much on one player to beat an excellent Detroit team with multiple parts that fit together very well. The Grizzlies, like those late-80s Pistons, play hard-nosed defense and they’re the scrappiest team in the league. Kevin Durant will work for every point, rebound, and assist. The Grizzlies are going to force Durant to beat them and that will be extremely tough when going up against a great on-ball defender every possession, as well as another help-defender (usually in the form of the bulky Zach Randolph) coming from the weak side. The Thunder will need for their players to hit their mid-range and 3-point shots, something that we are doubtful they can do. The Thunder role players, including Serge Ibaka haven’t been able to hit their jump shots on a consistent basis. Although Ibaka finally played good defense on Randolph in Game 3, limiting Z-bo to only 8 points on 4 of 12 shooting, Ibaka was again brutal offensively as he shot only 6-17. Serge’s offense has eroded ever since he missed a potential game-tying tip-in at the buzzer in Game 4 against the Rockets. We are hesitant to believe that Ibaka and the rest of the Thunder cast find their groove in this one, since the Grizzlies were a top two defensive team in the regular season and will continue to lock-down the suddenly predictable Thunder offense.
The Grizzlies certainly have their own areas to improve in but we feel confident they can rectify them here. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies get outworked in the paint, an area that they usually dominate. They were out-rebounded on the offensive end 14 to 5, as well as outscored in the paint 44 to 30. Memphis has typically owned both the rebounding advantage as well as points in the paint, since very few teams can match up with their front-court. With a shaky Ibaka, and the artist formerly known as Kendrick Perkins manning the middle, we have faith that the Grizzlies will improve on those facets of the game when the ball tips off. Look for the Grizzlies, winners of 18 of their last 19 games at home, to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, and cover the cheap price.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +167 over BOSTON
We have the Maple Leafs in the series so we’re not going to bet this game but they do come recommended taking back a price like this. Boston appears to be a step behind the Maple Leafs. The Leafs are slowly but surely wearing down this Boston team with their speed and physical play. The Bruins are also frustrated that they haven’t been unable to score many goals against James Reimer. The Bruins had a stranglehold on this series and have not been able to finish the deal. That weighs on the B’s collective minds and they’ll come into this game with more pressure than the previous two.
Toronto comes into this one with no pressure whatsoever. The Leafs have played their two best games of the series in Boston and the feeling among them now is that they can win it. The game is a real tossup. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which goaltender is going to come up with the big save or which team is going to get more opportunities on the power-play. What we do know is that the Maple Leafs are taking back a big tag in a game in which their chances are equally as good as the B’s chances and that makes them a must play. Lastly, the Maple Leafs flew out of Toronto last night and arrived in Boston at 1:15 AM. The Bruins had plane difficulties and didn’t leave Toronto until 9:00 AM this morning. It may not mean anything but being delayed for 10 hours after failing to close out the series can’t be beneficial. The bottom line is that the Bruins have not been sharp and have proven to be very beatable. Bet this only if you don't have a series bet. We do, so this is a NO BET.
WASHINGTON -½ +145 over N.Y. Rangers
The other Game 7 features a series in which the road team has not been able to win. That said, we can’t get on board for either, as the price prevents us from stepping in on the favorite while the road team has proven nothing. It’s actually mind-boggling trying to understand how both the Rangers and Caps can look so good at home and so lethargic on the road. The effort by New York in Game 5 in Washington was inexcusable. Not to be outdone, the Caps effort in New York yesterday was an embarrassment. Neither team has had a killer instinct. Neither team has had its best scorers step up to the plate and deliver. Neither team is worthy of a wager on the road and neither team can be trusted spotting a tag. Hold a gun to our heads and we’d probably take the Caps at -½ +145 but the beautiful thing about sports betting is we get to pass on games like this one and that’s precisely what we’ll do. NO BET.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta/ARIZONA Over 8
Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Its spacious outfield makes it ripe for doubles and triples. The thin desert air in Phoenix is also conducive to power hitters, as balls will travel a great distance in the air, even when the park's retractable roof is engaged to cut down on the desert heat.
The two pitchers going tonight do not have positive results against the team they’ll be facing. Current Diamondbacks have 10 hits in 31 career AB’s versus Mike Minor and current Braves have an astonishing eight hits in 44 AB’s (.444) against lefty Wade Miley. Incidentally, the Braves have won eight of 12 games against southpaws. Atlanta last came into this park in April of 2012 for a four-game series. The final scores read 6-4, 3-2, 9-1 and 10-2 with Atlanta winning three of the four games. The Braves thrived here last season and there’s no reason they can’t put up a bunch more today. It may sound like we’re making a pretty good case for Atlanta to win but Mike Minor’s 52% fly-ball bias profile is one that is very likely going to run into some trouble at this park. Too many factors point to the over and that’s precisely the way we’ll play it.
Texas +113 over OAKLAND
The Rangers are heating up with four wins in a row and seven wins in their past nine games. Justin Grimm has been one of the surprises of the young season. He’s certainly making a case for himself to claim a secure spot in the Rangers' rotation. Grimm has struck out 31 batters in 29 frames while walking 11 and comes in with a skills supported 3.45 ERA. Grimm’s groundball rate is 43% and his line-drive rate is just 17%. While he has a plus fastball at times (up to 96) and a power curve, he was never been a big strikeout pitcher in the minors. Instead, he relied on his ability to throw quality pitches with great control. That has now changed, as Grimm has made some adjustments, he’s using a changeup to give to now give him three usable pitches and he’s missing a lot of bats. Oakland's offense is a bit decimated due to outfield injuries and the park factors certainly favor a young pitcher looking to build on early-season success. Expect that success to continue here for Grimm.
Oakland is heading in the wrong direction. The A’s have dropped six of seven while scoring three runs or fewer in all six losses. Over their past 10 games, the A’s are batting a combined .208, which is the AL’s worst mark and so is their 25 runs scored over that same stretch. We’ve been fading A.J. Griffin quite a bit so far and we’re surely not going to pull up the reins here. Griffin’s skills are among the worst in the business with a troubling batted ball profile of 29% groundballs, 25% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. Over his past four starts, Griffin’s batted ball profile is even worse at 26%/26%/48% GB/LD/FB. Griffin’s ERA is a respectable 3.83 but it’s been due to an unsustainable strand rate of 83%. Griffin has been getting hit hard the entire year. Almost every out is hit to the warning track or is a frozen rope hit right at someone. This is the profile of a pitcher that is going to get crushed and while Griffin could be lucky again here, he’s prime fade material. There is no question that Texas and Grimm offer up some of the best value of the season so far against Griffin and the reeling A’s.
Wunderdog
Game: Miami at Chicago
Pick: 1st Half Under 95
The Miami Heat broke open a close game three in the fourth quarter on their way to a 2-1 series lead with a 10 point win in Chicago. The Heat were the top shooting team in the NBA for the regular season, and have held the line in the playoffs as well. They have however shot the ball extremely well the last two games connecting on 77-140 for 55%. And that is over their head, especially against a Chicago team that is defensively solid, especially at home. I expect the Bulls to come out in game four with a defensive mindset, in much the same way thy did in game one where they held the Heat to 15 points in the first period and 37 for the opening half. They have to extend themselves on the defensive end, and make the game even more of a half-court battle. Miami has scored well in the last two games, but 64 of those points have come in the 4th quarter, or 32 a contest, because the Bulls depth is depleted by injuries, and they are simply out of gas for the fourth quarter. Miami has played 18 games in the first or second round of the playoffs the last two seasons, and no team has scored more than 94 points against them, so you know they will be there defensively early on. Play the first half UNDER the total.
Harry Bondi
OAKLAND (-110) over Texas
Back to the scene of the crime for the Texas Rangers who return to Oakland on Monday for the first time since their epic end of the season collapse that allowed the Athletics to win the American League West and relegated the Rangers to the AL wild-card game. Oakland’s three-game sweep included a final-day victory to overtake the Rangers. Oakland limps home to start this three game homestand after losing six of its last seven games. But they have been solid at home particularly against Texas. A's are 17-6 when tonight's starter A.J. Griffin takes the hill and have gone 7-2 at home against the Rangers.
BRAD WILTON
Monday's free play is the Over in the Heat-Bulls game.
The last 2 games in this series, and 4 of the last 5 overall played between the teams have ended up playing Over the total. Miami has been able to net at least 104 points or more in all 3 of the games played thus far, and if they can get to that triple digit mark again tonight, we will be that much closer to making it 3 in a row Over the total.
Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 this postseason Over the total, and I say this one lands Over the total as well.
Play Game 4 between the Heat and the Bulls over the posted price.
3* MIAMI-CHICAGO OVER