Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday May, 14

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs open a two-game series with the Cardinals at Busch Stadium Monday evening Chicago will send Ryan Dempster to the hill knowing he is 0-2 in his two road starts this season, despite a glittering 0.00 ERA. With Dempster in commanding KW form with 21 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts, look for him to improve to 4-1 in his last five starts in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play n the Cubs.

Sean Higgs

Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Under 8

We get a pair of solid lefties on the hill vs two teams that have struggled to hit most of the years. Tigers at .220 and Chicago at .193 vs southpaws and that won't be changing here tonight. UNDER 5-1 last 6, 4-1 last 5 in Chicago and 6-2 Danks' last 8 home starts vs Tigers.

Kyle Hunter

Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5

The Texas Rangers have the best offense in baseball right now. They punish left-handers in a big way. Texas averages 6.33 runs per game against lefties. Bruce Chen has a horrible 10.4 ERA against Texas in his career. The Royals will be outmanned in a big way here. Take Texas -1.5.

Rob Vinciletti

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland fits a nice 12-3 system that plays on road favorites off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent that is off a home dog win. Cleveland is 4-0 as a road favorite in this rang and 5-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Twins are 2-10 when the total is 8 to 8.5 and 7-17 at night. They have C. Pavano on the mound tonight and he has a hideous 6.88 home era. Cleveland counters with Gomes and he has a fine 2.46 road era. Look for Cleveland to take the Opener.

David Chan

Yankees @ Orioles
PICK: Over 9

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

The Yanks' (19-15) Ivan Nova (4-1, 5.02 ERA) is set to square off against the Orioles' (22-13) Jason Hammel (4-1, 2.09 ERA) on the mound Monday night.

After two shaky starts, Nova rebounded last Tuesday vs. the Rays, giving up two runs while striking out eight over seven frames of work.

But, I'm not reading too much into that outing, and will suggest using caution if wagering on Nova; remember, he had given up 11 runs over his previous two starts. And Nova is just 1-1 with a pedestrian 4.73 ERA in two starts vs. Baltimore this year already.

Hammel returns to face the "Evil Empire" tonight, having missed his previous scheduled start because of a knee injury.

Keep your eyes on the Orioles' Matt Wieters who is 5 for 6 with two home runs vs. Nova.

Collectively Baltimore has homered 56 times this year, while New York comes into this game with 53; both rank near the top of the league.

Each is coming off a loss; Baltimore took two of three from the Rays, but lost yesterday's finale 9-8.

New York's three game win streak ended in yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Mariners.

All signs point to an exciting slug-fest; you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

Ben Burns

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays took two of three here a few weeks ago. The Jays remain above .500 at home though while the Rays are still below .500 on the road. I feel Toronto has a good chance at starting this series with a victory. Niemann is 2-3 with a 3.48 ERA. Morrow is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. In 13 games against the Rays, nine starts, Morrow has a 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Tampa hitters are batting a mere .167 in those games. On the other hand, Niemann has an ugly 5.11 ERA in 12 starts vs. Toronto. Consider the home team, listing Morrow.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves

The Braves sit atop the NL East division with a 22-13 record. The Braves have won three straight, culminating their sweep of the Cardinals on Sunday, 7-4. They have also won seven of their last 10 games. The Braves offense has been on fire, averaging 5.35 runs per game (2nd in the NL). Tonight the Braves host NL Central 2nd place Cincinnati. The Reds have won six of their last 10 games, but have just a .500 record on the road. The Reds offense hasn't been as potent as last season, as they rank in the bottom half of the NL with just 3.75 runs per game. Tonight's starter, Homer Bailey, has also struggled with a 1-3 record and 4.93 ERA this season. The 26-year old lasted just 3 2/3 innings his last start, allowing six earned runs. Randall Delgado will oppose for the Braves with his 2-3 record and 4.54 ERA. However, Delgado is coming off a quality start, allowing just one earned run and three hits over 5 2/3 innings. The Braves look to be the team to beat in the NL East this year and I like them here on Monday evening.

Dave Cokin

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Ivan Nova is doing good work for the Yankees, but Jason Hammel has been off the hook for Baltimore. A little concern about Hammel's knee, but the fact he's throwing here is a good indicator. I'll side with the Birds.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +124 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Rangers pulled their second Houdini act of the post-season against the Caps by scoring with six seconds left in Game 5 to avoid being down 3-2 in the series. In round one, the Blue Shirts were outplayed by Ottawa in just about every period of every game and once again the outstanding goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist bailed then out. The Rangers win with defense and by blocking shot after shot after shot. This is an offensively challenged club that has scored a total of 29 goals in 14 playoff games. The Devils have scored 36 times in 12 playoff games and they’ll come in here with a strong game plan to offset New York's defensive style. What’s really interesting is that the Rangers finished fourth in the league in blocked shots behind Minnesota, Montreal and Carolina. The Maple Leafs and Islanders finished fifth and sixth. What all of those teams have in common outside of the Rangers is that they all missed the playoffs and it clearly suggests that teams that continually block shots is a telltale sign of team's struggling to get the puck out of their own end. The Devils have many offensive weapons. The Devils are locked in and the way they took Philadelphia off of its game was nothing short of excellence. The only disadvantage the Devils have is between the pipes and while that can be significant in playoff hockey, it is not enough to deter us from taking back a tag with superior squad. Play: New Jersey +124 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +173 over BOSTON

The 76ers had the Celtics by the throat in game one but a late meltdown prevented Philly from gaining home court advantage. What we learned from that game and from Boston’s win over Atlanta is that the Celts are more vulnerable than in the past because outside of defending, they don't excel. During the regular season the Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency and dead last in field-goal attempts. Similar issues have continued into the playoffs too. In terms of rebounding, the Celtics have a better chance of bailing out the Greek economy than winning the battle of the boards over Philadelphia. Boston finished 30th in the league while the 76ers finished 7th. The Celtics are an aging team that looked it more and more with each passing week in this year’s unforgiving schedule. The 76ers are a young, talented and energetic team that was better than Boston in game one outside of about a 6-minute stretch. Yes, the Celtics have experience and they play great defense but they’re dinged up, they're beatable and they will likely get outplayed again. Of course the 76ers can win here. Play: Philadelphia +173 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee -130 over N.Y. METS

The Brewers are playable here, as they’re a rather cheap price because of Yovani Gallardo's 5.35 ERA. Gallardo is traditionally a slow starter but he always picks it up right around this time of year. Besides, that high ERA is a direct result of two poor starts against the Cardinals in which he allowed 15 runs in 5.2 frames. Take that pair out and he’s actually been outstanding. Gallardo is a staff anchor with a proven track record. Miguel Batista and the entire Mets bullpen can't compare. Batista is 41-years-old. In 18 innings this season, he’s allowed 24 hits while issuing 15 walks. That has produced a disturbing 2.13 WHIP and between starting and relieving, the Mets have lost 10 of the 12 games he’s appeared in. Batista is the type of guy you bring in when you’ve surrendered a game due to a lopsided score. Additionally, the Mets mental makeup can't be good after a difficult loss yesterday in front of a packed house in Miami. They had a 4-2 lead going to the bottom of the ninth, in what was an intense game. They lost 8-4 to a walk-off grand slam and now they have to face back-to-back pitchers that they’ve not had much success against. Play: Milwaukee -130 (Risking 2 units to win 1.54 units).

Detroit -114 over CHICAGO

Drew Smyly has come out of nowhere to post some outstanding numbers. What’s even more impressive is that he remained unfazed in his first four starts against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas and the Yankees. That’s a tough quartet to open your career against yet Smyly passed with flying colors. Few starters have posted better numbers than this rookie lefty and the profile says it’s no fluke. A high strikeout rate and a solid groundball rate suggest that this youngster is here to stay. Chicago has just two wins in eight starts versus lefthanders. Against a suspect Royals staff, the South Side scored one-run combined on Saturday and Sunday. They’re batting .234 over their past five games. John Danks’ skills have deteriorated thus far in 2012. He has a low strikeout rate (26 in 44 frames). His BB/SO ratio is poor and so is his 39% groundball rate. His raw stuff has shown a decline as well. His average fastball velocity is 89.9 mph, compared to 91.6 mph in 2011 and 91.4 mph in April 2011. When we see a significant change in a pitchers velocity and numbers in a short time span, the result is often a trip to the DL and Danks is either heading there or to the pen if things don’t improve real soon. His 5.89 ERA is not the result of bad luck. Play: Detroit -114 (Risking 2 units to win 1.75).

EZWINNERS

Milwaukee Brewers -145

The Brewers starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo has been solid against everyone expect the Cardinals and I expect a good start from him in this game against the Mets. Gallardo has a 22.24 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals and a 2.45 ERA in his other five starts. The Mets have had bullpen problems as they blew two saves in Miami this weekend and they send Miguel Batista to the mound. Batista struggled early in his first start as a member of the Mets' rotation, giving up four runs over his first two innings. I like the Brewers bats to get to him here as well. Play on Milwaukee.

JR O'Donnell

Detroit Tigers -120

This is a match up between Detroit on the road visiting the Chicago White Sox, with both teams struggling this season with DET 16-17 and CWS 16-19 overall. Tigers send out Drew Smyly (LHP) who is 1-0, with a 1.59 ERA and 1.09 WHIP facing John Danks (LHP), 2-4, 5.89 ERA & 1.44 WHIP. Smyly in six starts has been excellent away, surrendering only one earned run in four times, and "0" runs one time. The Sox Danks shows not too much to be excited about lately, and has been struggling with 29 ER in 44.1 innings pitched, and the biggest issue is "19" walks with "26" strikeouts.

MLB Predictions

Detroit Tigers -115

The Tigers are coming off a win yesterday to give them a 4 game split with the Oakland Athletics, while the White Sox dropped the rubber match game vs the Royals yesterday by a score of 9-1. Detroit is now 17-17 on the year while the White Sox are third in the AL Central at 16-19. Rookie Drew Smyly is back on the mound looking to improve on his impressive start to the season. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .221 opponents batting average over his 6 starts. Amongst those starts was a start vs the White Sox where he went 6 innings giving up 7 hits and just 2 earned runs while striking out 7 and walking none. John Danks will be pitching for the White Sox to make it two lefties on the mound tonight. Danks is 2-4 on the season with a 5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .263 opponents batting average. He has yet to face the Tigers this season but over his career he is 4-7 with an ERA of 5.04 against them. Danks allowed 2 earned runs against in his last start and that was the first time over his 7 starts this season where he didn't allow 3+ earned runs against. Although the Tigers are hitting a poor .220 against lefties this season the White Sox are hitting just .193 against left handed pitchers. The Tigers are 53-21 in their last 74 games vs divisional opponents, and 23-11 in their last 34 games as a road favorite. The White Sox are just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall, and 3-9 in their last 12 games following a loss. The White Sox are also just 1-4 in Danks' last 5 home starts, and 6-13 in his last 19 on 5 days rest. The Tigers are 22-8 in their last 30 meetings vs the White Sox, and 12-5 in their last 17 meetings in Chicago. Smyly has been a much better pitcher to date, and although the Tigers aren't playing their best baseball the White Sox are really struggling. Take Detroit to win tonight.

Oakland Athletics +182

Oakland split a 4 game series with the Tigers over the weekend, while the Angels lost 2 of 3 in Texas including last night's 13-6 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. The A's are now 18-17 on the season and 9-7 on the road, while the Angels are just 15-20 on the year and 9-8 at home. Tonight we have the same pitching match up we saw on April 17th in a 5-3 Oakland win. Tyson Ross is just 1-3 on the season with a 7.71 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and .336 opponents batting average, but those numbers are inflated due to two poor outings @TB and @Balt. Ross started the season off with two quality outings and allowed just 3 earned runs against in 5.2 innings of work against the Blue Jays in his last time out. In his start vs the Angels he went 6 innings allowing 7 hits and 2 earned runs. The Angels counter with Dan Haren who is 1-3 on the season with a 4.19 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .287 opponents batting average. In his last star Haren went just 3.2 innings vs the Twins allowing 8 hits and 5 earned runs. He has had three very quality starts this season, but hasn't been consistent throughout the first month and a half of the season. The Angels are just 1-6 in Haren's 7 starts this season. Note that the A's are 2-3 in Ross's starts. Also note that the Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 vs AL West opponents. Los Angeles is also just 1-7 in Haren's last 8 starts dating back to last season, and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The A's are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and already took 3 of 4 in Los Angeles this season. Take note that the Angels are 0-4 in Haren's last 4 starts vs the Athletics. With the Angels coming off a 6 game road trip including last night's emotional lost in the Sunday Night'er it is going to be a good spot for the A's who are fresh off a 6 game home stand. The A's have already won this same pitching match up earlier in the season, and they are in a good spot to pull it off again. Take the A's.