David Banks
Oklahoma City Thunder -7
Well, the Los Angeles Lakers (45-28, 31-42 ATS) finally put away the pesky Denver Nuggets in seven games Saturday, but as a reward they now get to open up their next series on just one day of rest vs. the second-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (51-19, 37-33 ATS). Furthermore, the Thunder are well-rested as they will have had eight days off at tip-off, and the schedule makers certainly did the Lakers no favors by scheduling the first four games of this series over just a six-day span! Game 1 from Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK is Monday night at 9:30 ET on TNT.
Oklahoma City made quick work of the defending NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks in a first round four-game sweep that wrapped up last Saturday, May 5th. The Thunder actually struggled here at home in the first two games of that series, needing a rather lucky game-winning shot from Kevin Durant to win Game 1 by one point and then escaping with a three-point win in Game 2. However, they played their best ball on the road in Dallas, dominating Game 3 95-79 and then rallying from a 13-point deficit entering the fourth quarter of the clincher to prevail 103-97. They have been sitting around ever since and there is no telling how a young club like this will handle that situation. There is no debating that this is a very talented team though as the Thunder finished third in the NBA in both scoring and field goal percentage during the regular season, and they surprisingly finished fourth in field goal percentage against on defense despite allowing 96.9 points per game, as those points against were more a function of the pace Oklahoma City plays at, as it does indeed have a couple of nice defenders in Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka.
Playing seven games was probably the last thing that the Lakers wanted to do before facing these guys, but it least they advanced this far, which was not a given on Saturday night when the Nuggets rallied to take a 73-69 lead early in the fourth quarter. However Steve Blake, who finished with a career playoff high 19 points off the bench, gave the Lakers the lead back on a three-pointer with 9:00 left and Los Angeles never trailed again. The Lakers won despite getting only 17 points for Kobe Bryant, who may have still been feeling the effects of his stomach flu but it didn't matter as Pau Gasol bounced back for probably the worst playoff game of his life with possibly the best, as he had 23 points and 17 rebounds. Also, Andrew Bynum added 16 points and Metta World Peace contributed 15 points and great defense in his first game back from a seven game suspension for his infamous elbow to James Harden of the Thunder. You can bet that he will not receive a hospitable welcome to Oklahoma City in Game 1.
The Lakers won that game in Los Angeles on April 22nd, but that was their only win in three regular season meetings with the Thunder. Oklahoma City won the only meeting in this building 100-85 back in February and they then won the first road meeting at the Staples Center 102-93. The Thunder are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings here at home.
Lenny Del Genio
Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
Line is heading in the wrong way here in a game matching two NL West rivals that are heading in opposite directions. LA has won four in a row, including sweeping Colorado over the weekend to move to a perfect 10-0 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. Overall, they are 15-3 at home this year and 17-4 when favored. You have to like their chances to continue those marks tonight behind Clay Kershaw, who should have a better record given a 0.898 WHIP in seven starts. He's been very successful at Chavez Ravine in the past when in the -150 to -200 price range with the Dodgers winning 17 of his 19 starts. He's 6-2 in 10 starts vs. Arizona to go with a 2.15 ERA. Here he faces a D'backs team that's lost seven of eight with a lineup averaging 3.7 runs per game vs. lefties.
Steve Janus
A's/Angels OVER 7
Even though the A's and Angels have both struggled offensively early this season, I think these two teams will easily surpass 7 runs tonight.
The A's will send out Tyson Ross, who is 0-3 with a 13.15 ERA and 2.385 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last two road starts, he has allowed 16 runs on 20 hits in just over 7 innings of work. I would be shocked if the Angels didn't put at least 5 runs in this game.
Los Angeles will counter with Dan Haren, who isn't quite himself. Haren has been dealing with a bad back, and has struggled as a result. He is just 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA in his last three starts, giving up 5 runs in each of his last two starts.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if these two teams didn't go over the posted total by the fifth inning. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Harens last 7 starts during game 1 of a series and 4-0 in Athletics last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -1.5 +111
The Texas Rangers should have no problem winning this Game 1 against the Kansas City Royals by multiple runs tonight. They have the edge on the mound and at the plate, so look for this one to end in a blowout victory in favor of the Rangers.
Scott Feldman has been a valuable player in Texas, mostly serving as a fill-in starter, but doing a great job when he gets the opportunity. Feldman is 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in four career starts against Kansas City.
Bruce Chen has been rocked here lately for the Royals. The left-hander is 1-2 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.562 WHIP over his last three starts. Chen is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.237 WHIP in four career starts against Texas.
The Rangers are batting .305 while scoring 6.7 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2012. The Royals are 1-12 in their last 13 road games following 2 or more consecutive wins. Kansas City is 1-7 in Chen's last 8 starts overall. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Monday.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
OKLAHOMA -7.5 over LA lakers: The Lakers are just a terrible road team at 12-23-1 ATS and 16-20 SU, plus they have gone just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Oklahoma City. The Lakers have to be thoroughly drained for this one after playing 7 games vs the fast paced Nuggets and now they must take on another fast paced team, on one days rest and they have gone just 16-27 ATS on 1 days rest this year. The Thunder have been sitting at home for a week now and while they may come out a bit rusty, they are very fresh and should wear down the Lakers in the second half with their high octane offense that has averaged 105.7 ppg on their home floor. the Thunder are 3-0 ATS this year on 3+ days rest and have outscored those opponents by 12.7 ppg. this has all the makings of a good old fashioned whooping, especially if we add the fact the Metta World Peace could struggle mightily in this hostile atmosphere, after his elbow incident vs James Harden Thunder in a rout here.
BOSTON -4.5 over Philadelphia: Really can't believe i'm going against my Sixers, but I have to in this spot. Philly really played a good game 1 and led for most of it, but they still couldn't close the deal and now I expect Boston to make some adjustments. The Celtics have been one of the better teams in the second half of the year and they have been solid at home going 28-9 SU and outscoring their home opponents by 7.8 ppg, plus the Celts are also a solid 25-16 ATS on one day's rest this year. Philly took hold of the early part of game, but I don't expect them to have a solid start in this one. Boston will make the adjustments and take this game over from the start. They are the better team here, while the Sixers are really playing with house money right now. Boston makes a statement with an easy win here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Philadelphia Under 173.5: In game 1 I had the Over, but I feel that adjustments will be made and a more deliberate and slower paced game will ensue. Both of these teams have been two of the better defensive teams this year and that's where the adjustments will be made in this one. Philly has allowed just 87 ppg on 1 days rest, while the Celtics have allowed just 89 ppg in the same situation. Boston allowed the Sixers 91 points in game 1 and that is not normal as they ahve allowed just 84.3 ppg in their home games this year. Philly allows 92.8 pg on the road, but I believe they will play a bit more solidly at that end of the floor in this one, especially vs a Boston team that is not shooting all that well. Look for this one to finish in the 160's, with Boston winning by 5+.
NHL Predictions
Devils / Rangers Over 4.5
These two teams have met 6 times already this season and they don’t like each other at all - it should be a great series. The totals of the 6 meetings from most recent to the first were: 6, 5, 2, 1, 7, and 5. As you can see 4 of the 6 games got over tonight’s posted total of 4.5. Although the Rangers have been playing the UNDER all playoffs long I think the Devils will set the pace tonight. New Jersey has scored 3 or more goals in 7 straight games and all but 2 of their 12 postseason games thus far. Although the Rangers have either “pushed” or went under the total in all but 1 game in these playoffs they have had a number of games with 5 goals. 7 of their 14 games have had 5 or more goals and therefore would have cashed OVER 4.5 wagers. Tonight I see the Devils setting the pace and I expect it to be more of an offensive game than a defensive game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game at 2-2 at one point and cashing our OVER wager tonight.
John Ryan
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
5* graded play on the Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the Boston Celtics in game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals set to start at 8:05 PM ET. The 76ers had a 13 point lead at one point and entered the fourth stanza with a four point lead before giving way to the will of the more playoff experienced Boston Celtics.
Look at the box score shows an incredibly tight game where nearly every meaningful category of play was equal. The 76ers shot 36-for-82 for 44% from the field and the Celtics matched that number exactly. The 76ers scored 13 fast break points to the Celtics 14 fast break points. The 76ers had 40 points in the point and the Celtics 39 points. The biggest lead was 13 points for the 76ers and just six points for the Celtics. The Celtics led for just 2:05 before taking the lead for good midway through the fourth quarter. The 76ers know they let one escape, but they also know that they can compete with Boston on their home floor.
So, this is one of those games that in review shows an increased confidence emanating from the 76ers team and an increasing amount of doubt surrounding the Celtics. The 76ers met for a fairly length film study of Game 1 and then had a informal shoot around with many of the players getting into one-on-one situations and a little ?street ball?. The team was loose and full of energy.
The Celtics, however, were given the day off to rest their aging bumps, bruises, and egos. The Atlanta series was quite physical and it is no secret that the Celtics greatest enemy is their age. This marks the second day in the playoffs that head coach Doc Rivers gave the tem a day off to rest, which unprecedented in playoff history.
This is a great defensive matchup much like the first round one the 76ers won against a depleted Bulls team. The 76ers rank second in scoring defense allowing 88.8 points per game and the Celtics rank third allowing 89.0 points per game.
The biggest difference between the two teams is that Philadelphia is a far better rebounding team and are far more athletic on the offensive glass than the Celtics. The 76ers rank 17th in the NBA averaging 50.2 rebounds per game while the Celtics are 29th averaging 46.8 rebounds per game.
The 76ers averaging nearly three more offensive boards than the Celtics, who rank a league-worst 30th getting an averaging of just 7.7 offensive boards per game. This translates into as many as six additional points on the scoreboard. Moreover, it prevents the Celtics from look to generate fast break scoring opportunities because they have to keep all five players blocking out their offensive counterpart to prevent the 76ers from getting second chance scoring opportunities. That matchup is hard to quantify, but certainly is a meaningful number favoring the 76ers.
The simulator shows a high probability that the 76ers will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning Game 2. The simulator shows detailed projections showing that Boston will shoot between 43 and 47% from the field and that Philadelphia will grab between 10 and 15 offensive boards. In past games, Philadelphia is 15-7 ATS when their opponents have shot between 43 and 47% of their shots in game played this season. Philadelphia is a resounding 200-158 ATS in road games when the they have grabbed 10 to 15 offensive boards in a game since 1996. Take the Philadelphia 76ers + 4
Sean Murphy
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are desperately seeking consecutive wins for the first time since mid-April, and I'm confident they'll accomplish that task tonight.
Detroit is coming off a 3-1 win in Oakland yesterday, and now appears primed to build some positive momentum against a struggling White Sox club.
Despite their recent issues, the Tigers are still a .500 team, and still sitting a game-and-a-half ahead of the White Sox in the A.L. Central standings. This is a veteran team that isn't about to hit the panic button.
Rookie starter Drew Smyly has certainly lived up to his billing as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six starts this season. What I really like is the fact that he's managed to work six innings in each of his last three starts, never eclipsing the 100-pitch mark. One of those starts came against these same White Sox, as he held them to two earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 Tigers victory back on May 4th.
Chicago will counter with John Danks. He's been a slow starter in recent years, and 2012 has been no different. Danks checks in with a 2-4 record and 5.89 ERA. Coming off a solid outing against the Indians last Tuesday, I won't be one bit surprised if we see him regress in this spot. Note that Danks has been a train wreck here at home, going 0-3 with a 7.32 ERA. He's also been absolutely dreadful over his last couple of starts against the Tigers, allowing 20 hits and 15 earned runs in only 9 2/3 innings of work.
There's no home field advantage to speak of when it comes to the White Sox here at U.S. Cellular Field. They're just 6-11 when hosting this season, and after scoring a grand total of one run in back-to-back losses to the Royals over the weekend, there's no reason to anticipate a sudden turnaround tonight.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -134
Fresh off an impressive sweep of the Cardinals, expect the Braves to keep right on rolling against a Cincy club they have defeated 4 times in the past five meetings at home. Cincy's Homer Bailey can't be trusted here. The Reds are just 9-26 in Bailey's last 35 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog. The Braves are 6-2 in Randall Delgado's last 8 starts as a favorite. Bet the Braves.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Yankees -109
The Yankees are showing value at this price considering they are 4-2 against the Orioles this season and have won all 3 meetings in Baltimore. Looking back, the Yankees are 50-17 in the last 67 meetings, including 21-7 in their last 28 in Baltimore. Baltimore's Jason Hammel is off to a sensational start, but he hasn't fared well against the Yankees. The right-hander is just 1-3 (2-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.87 in 6 career starts versus New York. The Yankees' Ivan Nova, meanwhile, is 3-1 (4-2 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.96 in 6 career starts versus the O's. The Yankees are 20-7 in Nova's last 27 starts, 8-2 in his last 10 road starts and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. We'll take the Yanks.
Jeff Alexander
LA Dodgers -150
The Dodgers, who have won 15 of 18 at home this season, are in good hands with Kershaw (2.56 ERA) on the hill. The Dodgers are 20-6 in his last 26 starts, 17-4 in his last 21 series-opening starts and 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Also, Kershaw is 6-2 (7-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.15 in 10 lifetime starts versus Arizona. The Dodgers are 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the Diamondbacks and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the D-backs. Ian Kennedy is a fantastic starter, but he has an ERA of 3.91 on the season and the D-backs have dropped his last 3 starts. He also has a 4.75 lifetime ERA versus the Dodgers. Take L.A.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Detroit -120 over CHICAGO: Time for the Tigers to start flexing the muscles they have and showing the rest of the division that they are the team to beat here. Drew Smyly has done a very nice job for te Cats this year as he is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his 6 starts this year, including a start vs the Sox in which he allowed just 2 ER in 6 innings of a 5-4 Detroit win. He should be able to shut them down again, as the Sox come in having scored just 1 run in their last 2 games (vs a bad KC Staff), while they hit just .227 and have scored 3.5 rpg at home all year. John Danks has had a rough go of it this year, with a 2-4 mark and a 5.89 ERA, including an 0-3 mark with a 7.23 ERA at U.S. Cellular. The Tigers are not a team he relishes facing either, as he is 1-3 with an 8.46 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, while current Tigers players have hit .302 with 23 extra basehits (7HR's) in 202 AB's vs him. Neither offense is great right now, but the Tigers should have a better showing vs Danks than the Sox will have vs Smyly. Look for Detroit to start off this short series with a win.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Tampa Bay +134 over TORONTO: Not a good spot for the Jays here as they are off a 9 game road trip and don't have a day off before taking on a desperate Rays team that has won just 2 of their 6 games on this current trip and 2 of their last 10 overall. Tampa is 4-1 the last 5 meetings in the series and 8-3 in their last 11 games here. Jeff Neimann has struggled with this team, going 2-3 with a 5.48 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but he is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in his last 2 starts here. Brandon Morrow has also struggled with the Rays as he is 2-3 with a 4-50 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but he has really struggled in his last 2 starts in this park vs them, going 0-2 with an 8.73 ERA in those two starts. Neither team is playing great right now, but a desperate Rays team will take advantage of a Toronto team that should be less focused after such a long trip. Good spot for the Rays here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008, the Rays are 16-2 as a road dogs vs a divisional team that is behind them in the standings, if the Rays are off a win of 8 or less runs.
Washington/ San Diego Under 7: With the Pitching that the Nats have and the way they just don't score alot at home, I'll be looking at a lot of Unders in their home games this year. The Padres struggle vs lefties on the road, hitting just .221 and scoring just 2.41 runs per 9 innings off them and tonight they will be facing a tough lefty. Ross Detwiler as struggled some in 2 of his last 3 starts, but those two start were on the road and he is back home for this one, where he has posted a 1.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in his 3 starts. Don't see these Pads getting many runs here, especially in a park that allows opponents just 3.31 rpg. The Nats have struggled to score at home as they have averaged just 3.4 rpg here, and will be taking on a guy that has done well vs them. Tim Stauffer is making his first start of the year and in 4 career starts he has a 1.66 ERA vs the Nats, while in 2 starts here he has an 0.65 ERA. Both offense will struggle vs good pitching in this one and that's a good recipe for an Under, especially in a park that has seen just 6.8 rpg scored on the year.
Cleveland -121 over MINNESOTA: The Twins are a bad team at 10-24 on the year and it may not get better for them tonight. The Tribe is off to an 18-16 start, but they have done some damage on the road, going 10-6, while hitting .259 and scoring 5.3 rpg (2nd in league) away from home. Tonight they should continue to hit well vs Carl Pavano and his low 80's fastball. Carl is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA on the year, including an 0-1 mark with a 6.88 ERA in 3 starts here. Jeanmar Gomez has struggled overall with a 2-2 mark and a 4.66 ERA, but he has done well on the road, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and an 0.68 WHIP in his 2 road starts this year. The Twins do score 4 rpg at home. but that won't be enough here as Cleveland should take game 1 with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Cincinnati Over 8.5: Both pitchers are average at best right now, while both offenses have shown recently that they can score some runs. Braves home games have averaged 10.9 rpg and I can see at least 11 here as well.
BOSTON -1.5 (+110) over Seattle: The Boston offense is waking up a bit as they have put up 23 runs in their last 3 games, plus we know how they kill left handed pitching at home, hitting .360 and scoring 7.65 rp/9 off of them at Fenway. Seattle has averaged just 3.2 rpg in their last 5 and just won't have enough offense to keep this one close.
Chicago/ St Louis Over 7.5: (Added) Both starters have done well this year so far, but neither has been good vs tonight's opposition of late. Dempster has a 4.40 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cards, while Westbrook has a 4.88 in his last 5 vs the Cubs. St Louis home games have gone 12-3 to the Over, with those games scoring 10.9 rpg. Should be a fun one on ESPN tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Colorado +107 over SAN FRANCISCO: Just because the sharps have said so. LOL Just Kidding. The Rockies have struggled on this trip, but they do get the Giants off a 6 game road trip, which included an emotional series in Arizona over the weekend. Look for the Rockies to steal one here.
Vegas Experts
Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland
Excellent line value with the road side here, and we'll back the Cleveland Indians to bounce back from a tough weekend series against Boston and open a new series against Minnesota with a win tonight. Cleveland can't match up against powerful offenses, but here they face a Minnesota team that is only hitting .238 on the season and scoring fewer than 3.5 runs per game. Gomez is in a bounce-back start after his worst outing of the year, and we like his chances after holding the Twins to 2 runs over 6 2/3 inning in his lone meeting against them last season. Pavano owns a 0-3 TSR against Cleveland in his last three meetings, and we'll back the better pitcher and better team at a very low price tonight.
Wunderdog
Detroit at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox +115
The Detroit Tigers were supposed to be a blur and lockdown the weak AL Central with relative ease. That certainly has not been the case as the Tigers now 34 games into the season and are a pedestrian .500 team. When you consider the fact that they started 9-3 and looked to be on their way, they have been in an elongated slump leaving them at 8-14 in their last 22 games. Drew Smyly has pitched very well but he has seen a pair of his starts blown up by the pen turning both into team losses. The Tigers have been really struggling to put a couple good games together and are now 0-8 after a win in their last eight. The White Sox are getting good work from Danks with a low total from 7-8.5 as he has pitched them to a 13-6 mark in his last 19, including 7-3 at home. Play on Chicago.