SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Phoenix (8-2 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (8-2, 6-4 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers and the surging Suns, both fresh off second-round sweeps and having gotten a full week of rest, open the best-of-7 Western Conference finals at Staples Center.
Phoenix is on a 22-4 SU spree in its last 26 games, going 19-6-1 ATS in that stretch. The third-seeded Suns got pushed to six games by No. 6 Portland in the first round, going 4-2 SU and ATS, then punished the seventh-seeded Spurs with a four-game SU and ATS sweep in the second round. Phoenix won Games 3 and 4 in San Antonio as a road underdog, finishing it off eight days ago with a 107-101 victory as a four-point pup. Amare Stoudemire had 29 points in the clincher, and Steve Nash had 20 points and nine assists in the finale.
Jason Richardson (21.9 ppg) has been Phoenix’s top point producer in the playoffs, with Stoudemire (20.5) close behind. Nash is dealing out nine assists per game, third-best in the postseason but trailing only Boston’s Rajon Rondo (11.1) among players still remaining.
Los Angeles, seeded first in the West, has won six in a row in the playoffs, taking the last two games SU and ATS in its six-game first-round series with pesky Oklahoma City before rolling over Utah in four straight (3-1 ATS). The Lakers closed out the Jazz last Monday with a 110-96 rout as a 3½-point road underdog, getting 33 points and 14 rebounds from Pau Gasol and 32 points from Kobe Bryant.
Bryant is the fourth-leading scorer in the postseason, at 26.9 ppg, but the three ahead of him have already bowed out: Miami’s Dwyane Wade (33.2), Denver’s Carmelo Anthony (30.7) and Cleveland’s LeBron James (29.1). Gasol has put up 20.2 ppg along with 13.1 rebounds, second-best in the playoffs.
Los Angeles went 3-1 SU and ATS in its four regular-season meetings with Phoenix this season, with the SU winner cashing in all four games. The Lakers are on further rolls against the Suns of 7-2 SU and 9-4 ATS. The home team is on a 5-1 ATS run, and the SU winner is 11-1 ATS in the last dozen matchups. Most recently, Los Angeles won 102-96 as a two-point road chalk on March 12.
These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in all 10 of the Suns’ playoff games this year and in 19 in a row overall for Phoenix, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in L.A.’s 10 playoff contests.
Phoenix is 26-20 SU (27-19 ATS) on the highway this season (4-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing a shade less at 106.1 ppg (45.6 percent).
Los Angeles is 39-7 inside Staples Center this year, but just 19-25-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by nearly nine ppg (103.7-95.0), shooting an even 46 percent and allowing 43.6 percent shooting. The Lakers are 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) at home in the playoffs.
The Suns are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a break of three or more days, but they own a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 34-16-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-0 as an underdog, 20-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 19-6-1 after a spread-cover and 20-8-1 after a SU win.
The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, but they are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 5-11-1 at home (all as a chalk), 3-11 after a spread-cover, 2-8-1 on Monday and 3-8 against Pacific Division foes.
Los Angeles is on a 6-1-1 “over” run in its last eight games, and the over has hit in five of its last seven as a favorite, but the Lakers are also on “under” stretches of 9-2 in the conference finals, 4-1 after three or more days off and 11-3 as a playoff chalk. Phoenix carries “under” streaks of 7-1-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a favorite, 7-2 when getting five to 10½ points, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog and 4-1 in the conference finals, though the over has cashed in the Suns’ last four games following three or more days’ rest.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over/under split in this season’s four contests and has alternated in the last six meetings overall, with the March 12 contests in Phoenix falling well short of the 212½-point price. However, the total has gone high in eight of the last 11 series meetings at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (21-15) at San Diego (22-15)
The Giants will try to take over first place in the N.L. West when they send veteran right-hander Matt Cain (2-2, 3.28 ERA) to the mound at Petco Park in San Diego against Padres’ lefty Clayton Richard (2-2, 3.21).
After getting swept by the Padres at home to start last week, the Giants turned around and swept a three-game set from the Astros, capped by Sunday’s 4-3 victory. San Francisco is on streaks of 20-9 as a favorite, 19-7 in series openers, 6-2 as a road chalk and 6-1 on Monday.
San Diego returned home off a 5-1 road trip and got swept by the Dodgers, including a 1-0 loss on Sunday, managing just four runs in the three-game series. The Padres have no dropped five straight home games, but they remain on surges of 19-10 overall, 7-3 in series openers and 20-8 against winning teams.
The Padres are 6-0 against San Francisco this year, allowing just eight runs in the six games. San Diego has also won 10 of the last 12 clashes at Petco Park, including a three-game sweep last month.
Cain squared off against the Padres and Richard on Wednesday, giving up five runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-2 loss. He is 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts, and while the Giants have won four of Cain’s last five starts when he’s coming off four days off, they’ve lost seven of his last 10 as a favorite, 19 of his last 26 when he faces winning teams and six of his last seven against the N.L. West.
Additionally, San Francisco is 3-12 in Cain’s last 15 starts versus the Padres, against whom the right-hander is 4-7 with a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts, including 1-4 with a 2.89 ERA in nine contests at Petco Park. This will be his third start against San Diego this season and he has yet to get a victory, allowing a combined seven runs on 13 hits in 13 2/3 innings (4.61 ERA).
Richard allowed two runs on seven hits in seven innings in Wednesday’s 5-2 victory over Cain in San Francisco. He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three outings and 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA at home this year. In two starts against the Giants this season, he has allowed a combined three runs on 14 hits in 13 1/3 innings (2.03 ERA), and the Padres won both contests. For his career, Richard is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three games against San Francisco (17 1/3 innings).
When Richard throws, the Padres are on streaks of 8-3 at home, 4-1 when he’s a home ‘dog and 5-0 when he faces winning teams.
The Giants are on “under” runs of 3-1-2 overall, 9-1-1 against N.L. West teams and 6-2 on the road against left-handers, and behind Cain the under is on surges of 9-4 on the road, 10-3 as a road favorite, 7-3 when he’s coming off four days of rest. The Padres are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 38-18-4 overall (8-0-1 last nine), 3-0 at home, 35-16-2 against N.L. West teams, 5-0-1 against right-handers, 20-7-1 against winning teams, 6-2-3 in Richard’s last 11 starts overall and 5-0-3 in his last eight as an underdog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in 15 of the last 21 meetings – going 7-0-1 in the last eight – and five straight battles in San Diego have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (19-19) at N.Y. Yankees (24-13)
Baseball’s biggest rivalry resumes at Yankee Stadium when the Red Sox and Yankees kick off a three-game series with Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 6.35 ERA) scheduled to pitch for the visitors opposite Philip Hughes (5-0, 1.38 ERA).
Both teams lost Sunday, with the Red Sox falling in Detroit 5-1, while the Yankees were tripped up at home by the Twins 6-3. Boston has dropped three of its last four and is in further slumps of 1-5 on the road, 9-19 against A.L. East teams and 6-18 against winning teams.
New York has dropped five of eight overall, but it remains on positive runs of 50-12 at home, 44-11 against right-handers at home, 44-15 against A.L. East teams and 44-19 against winning teams.
This is the third series between these rivals this season, but the first in New York. The Yankees have won four of the six meetings, including two of three 10 days ago at Fenway Park. New York is 13-3 in the last 16 series clashes, and it has beaten the Red Sox seven straight times inside Yankee Stadium.
Matsuzaka is making just his fourth start of the season, and he’s coming off his best outing to date as he limited the Blue Jays to one run on three hits in seven innings while striking out nine in a 6-1 victory Tuesday. In his seven career starts against the Yankees, he is 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA.
With Matsuzaka on the hill, the Red Sox are on runs of 38-15 overall, 17-6 on the road, 8-1 against winning teams, 22-8 when he gets five days off and 13-6 when he faces A.L. East opponents.
Hughes has won each of his last three starts, compiling a 0.86 ERA, allowing two runs in 21 innings. The Yankees have won eight of his last 10 starts dating back to last year and he has not allowed an opponent to score more than two runs in any outing this season. On Wednesday, he blanked the Tigers on five hits over seven innings of an 8-0 win. Also, Hughes shut down the Red Sox on May 7, allowing two runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 10-3 win.
With Hughes pitching, the Yankees have won five straight against winning teams, five straight when he gets four days off and four of five at home against winning teams.
The Red Sox are on “over” runs of 6-3-1 overall, 20-8-2 in series openers, 7-3-1 against winning teams and 4-0 on Monday, but behind Matsuzaka they’re on “under” streaks of 15-7 on the road and 6-1 when he faces a winning team. The Yankees carry “under” trends of 6-1 overall, 22-7 when they face winning teams at home and 8-2-2 on Monday, but they’ve topped the total in five of seven when Hughes gets four days off and four straight when Hughes faces A.L. East teams
Finally, in this rivalry, the over has been the play in five of the six clashes this season, but the “under” has cashed in five of the last six battles in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
Phoenix at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing with 3 or more days of rest. LA is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6)
Game 501-502: Phoenix at LA Lakers (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.837; LA Lakers 128.375
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6); Under
MLB
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
The Indians look to build on their 5-1 record in Fausto Carmona's last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Cleveland is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170)
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.055; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 17.556
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-220); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-220); Under
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.350; Atlanta (Lowe) 16.842
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Over
Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.711; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.772
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 907-908: Arizona at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Jackson) 13.491; Florida (Volstad) 16.764
Dunkel Line: Florida by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-155); Under
Game 909-910: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.779; Cubs (Wells) 14.761
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); N/A
Game 911-912: Washington at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 14.264; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.959
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 913-914: San Francisco at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.613; San Diego (Richard) 15.151
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Over
Game 915-916: Houston at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.443; LA Dodgers (Ely) 15.082
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Over
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 15.040; Detroit (Porcello) 17.216
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 16.979; Toronto (Eveland) 15.651
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Over
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 14.237; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.068
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Over
Game 923-924: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.564; NY Yankees (Hughes) 17.159
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-210); Under
Game 925-926: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.585; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.452
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); Under
Game 927-928: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.451; Texas (Holland) 14.976
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+120); Over
Game 929-930: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.556; Oakland (Gonzalez) 13.910
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Over
Marc Lawrence
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
When the A's open a two game series with division rival Seattle in Oakland this evening they will will do so knowing they've captured 12 of the last 20 games in this series. In addition, Mariners right hander Ryan Rowland-Smith enters with a rocky 5.4 ERA in his four road starts this season and is 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in his career road starts in May. Stay at home with Oakland here tonight.
Craig Trapp
Suns vs. LA Lakers
Play: Under 210.5
Two teams with a week off spells trouble for timing and outside shooting. Just as we saw in game 1 of East Conference Finals teams take at least a half to get their feet under them. Lakers are coming off a series in which they played another run and gun team in UTAH and they slowed them down and really took advantage of them. Look for LAL to run the triangle offense and use close to control this game. PHO will make shots late but not enough to push this one over!
Rob Vinciletti
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: New York Mets
The Mets have lost 5 of the last 6 after a solid 10-1 streak earlier in the season. On Sunday they were down big, but showed good resolve in getting the score to a respectable 10-8. Tonight they send one of their better starters this year M.Pelfrey to the mound. The Mets have won 5 of his 7 starts and he has a fine 3.21 era. Atlanta counters with D. Lowe. In his starts this year Lowe has been mediocre at home with a 5.49 era. When he faces the Mets he has had little personal success of late with a 7.65 era. The Mets have won all 3 games this season vs an Atlanta team that really struggles in divisional play with a 3-9 record. The Culprit has been the offense. The Braves are hitting just .210 vs fellow division rivals and average just a shade over 2 runs per game. The Mets even with the losing streak are hitting over .290 the past 7 games and are over .500 as a road dog in this range. The Capper comes from the database. What we want to do is play against certain home teams off a home favored win of 5 or more runs that scored 10 or more runs in vs an opponent who scored 5 or more runs in a road dog loss. These home teams are 3-12. Look for the Mets to get game 1 tonight.
David Chan
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
We muttered about this in winning Friday’s free pick; we’re going back to the well after the Jays swept the Rangers this weekend. The Jays are 23-16 overall, but a disappointing 2-7 against the Red Sox and Rays. There’s something going on here psychologically with Toronto.
The team is rebuilding with a new GM and a lot of young players. The club knows it won’t really compete in the AL East against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, so the players don’t approach those games with confidence. Against the rest of the league, the Jays think they can play. Not only can they play: at 21-9, they win.
I’m going to start betting the Jays every day they DON’T run into an AL East behemoth, and hope this trend continues. With luck, both trends continue—if we don’t fade the Jays against the Yankees, Rays, and Bosox (we might, but we risk death by chalk poisoning), the unbalanced schedule at least means that those three teams can lay enough losses on Toronto to get us favorable prices against Baltimore and outside the division.
In this particular game the pitching matchup looks like Dana Eveland (Jays) vs. Kevin Slowey (Twins). Slowey’s the better pitcher, but Eveland has been better over the last three starts. That’ll do.
EZWINNERS
San Francisco Giants -120
The Giants will be looking for some revenge against the Padres who swept them in a three game series last week and these two teams have reverse the fortunes since that series. The Giants bats came to life and San Francisco is coming off of a three game home sweep of an Astros team that had just swept St. Louis. San Diego's bats have been cold. The Padres were swept in their last series by the Dodgers and only managed to score four runs in the series. San Francisco is 19-7 in their last twenty six opening games of a series and they are 11-5 in their last sixteen games as a favorite of -150 or less. Cain vs. Richard is a rematch of last Wednesday's game and I like Cain to win this time around. Play on San Francisco.
JR O'Donnell
FLA (-150) vs ARI
JR O going powerful tonight as the Red Hot Florida Marlins, who have steam rolled 4 straight, grab #5 tonight behind Volstad. The Marlins have been hitting on a torrid pace, .325 BAA the last few games and have scored at least 8 runs in this stretch. Edwin Jackson has been awful and tonight his woes continue as he allows a ton of runs on the road and has a 13+ ERA in 3 road starts.
The -150 lead here is about as high as our camp will go. However, Jackson, 0-3 and with a 10+ ERA vs. Florida and the Marlins red hot right now, all add up to an easy FISH win. JR's power ratings on this baby have the Marlins a solid 2 run winner.
MTi Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Marlins are 0-6 at home after a win and it is the first game of the series and 0-5 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series. Arizona is a very nice 5-0 as a 140+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led. Finally, the Marlins are 0-6 when Christopher Volstad starts at home vs a team that lost their starters last two starts. Dont underestimate the Snakes in this spot.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll lay the price with the Dodgers on Monday night, as LA is red hot winning seven games in a row, and tonight face a Houston team that has dropped three straight and is dead cold at the plate. The Astros six combined runs in their last three games, and averaging only seven base hits in those losses. And here they’ll face John Ely, who has allowed only three runs combined in his last two starts, and has a 1.35 home ERA. Dodgers bats and Ely pitching combine for an easy win here.
Play on: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Fargo
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
This may look like a mismatch on paper but there is a lot of value on the Pirates in my opinion. Pittsburgh nearly pulled off the sweep in Chicago over the weekend as it took two of three from the Cubs with a late inning loss on Sunday being the only setback. It was just the second road series win of the season for the Pirates who are a solid 5-4 in their last nine road games after starting the season 2-8 away from home. The Phillies have been playing excellent baseball as they are 9-2 in their last 11 games. This is why we are seeing suck ax big line but I think it is unjustified as the starting pitching does not warrant this sort of number. I am mainly referring to Kyle Kendrick who should not be a 2-1 favorite over any team. He has been extremely inconsistent this season as he has allowed no runs in two of his starts but has allowed four or more runs in his five other outings. He had an encouraging season a year ago although it was limited to just two starts and seven relief appearances and that definitely has not carried over. It has already been a tale of two seasons for Charlie Morton who was on the brink of losing his spot in the rotation. He was horrible in his first four starts as posted a dreadful 16.20 ERA in those games but he has rebounded with three straight quality starts. He is full of confidence now and in his lone start against the Phillies last season, he had a quality performance in a 3-2 Pirates win. Play on National League teams that are averaging 3.8 rpg or fewer and coming off a loss by two runs or less but going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse. This situation is 42-20 (67.7 percent) since 1997. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates
Rocketman Sports
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Phoenix Suns +6
Phoenix is 8-2 SU and ATS in all playoff games this year. Phoenix is 22-9 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Phoenix is 37-19 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. Phoenix is 23-6 SU and 22-7 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more in the 2nd half of the season. Phoenix is scoring 109.7 points per game overall this year and 107.2 points per game on the road this year. Phoenix has won 6 games in a row heading into tonight's action. My power ratings has Phoenix to win this game outright by 5 points tonight! We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!
Steve Merril
Royals @ Orioles
PICK: Under 9
Baltimore and Kansas City start a brief two-game set on Monday night. The Orioles send Brad Bergesen to the hill who has improved a bunch since returning from AAA. The righty has won three straight starts against the Red Sox, Twins, and Mariners. Bergesen has given up five runs over his last 19.3 innings of work. He defeated the Royals last season in Baltimore giving up one run and seven hits in seven innings pitched. Yuniesky Betancourt (1-6), Billy Butler (1-4), Mitch Maier (1-4), Alberto Callaspo (0-3) and Scott Podsednik (0-2) all have struggled against Bergesen. The Royals offense has struggled on the road scoring just 4.2 runs per game. At night, the Royals offense hasn’t done much as they average just 3.3 runs per game.
Kansas City’s Kyle Davies may be rounding into form. Davies sandwiched two good starts in between a shellacking in Texas. Last time out he gave up two runs and six hits in five innings to Cleveland. Davies also threw six good innings against the Rays in Tampa on May 1st. The righty lost a 3-2 game against the Orioles last season giving up three runs and six hits in seven innings of work. Cesar Izturis (2-8), Garrett Atkins (2-8), Ty Wigginton (0-3) and Luke Scott (0-2) have poor numbers against Davies. With two improving pitchers facing a pair of struggling lineups, we expect a low-scoring game and recommend a play on the Under in this spot.
BEN BURNS
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have owned the Nationals here at St. Louis. Indeed, they're a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they hosted them. The Cards figure to have the edge for this evening's opener and have a solid shot at continuing their series dominance.
Lohse is 0-2 in four home starts. However, he's got a respectable 3.60 ERA in those games, averaging greater than six innings per start. On the other hand, Stammen is 0-1 with a terrible 12.20 ERA and 2.614 WHIP in three road starts. He's averaged less than four innings per start in those games.
Lohse is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his last two starts against Washington. both in 2008. Overall, his team is 5-1 in his six starts against the Nats. Note that Washington's leading home run hitter, Adam Dunn, is questionable after missing yesterday's game with flu-like symptoms.
Stammen lost his lone start here, giving up six runs (3 earned) in 4 2/3 innings. Note that Albert Pujols is hitting .440 with five homers in 16 games against the Nats, since 2007.
While the Nats are 18-40 (-15.4) the past few seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, the Cards are 4-0 the last four times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Consider laying the wood.
Tom Freese
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore starter Brad Bergesen has allowed 5 runs total in his last 3 starts all of which were wins. The Orioles are 6-2 their last 8 home games vs. a team with a win percentage of less than 40%. Baltimore is 11-4 their last 15 games home games vs. the Royals. Kansas City is 58-121 their last 179 games vs. AL West teams and they are 3-8 their last 11 games overall. The Royals are 1-6 their last 7 games vs. righty starters. Kansas City is 16-35 their last 51 games off a win. PLAY ON BALTIMORE -