Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -130
I'll back the O's behind Bradley Bergesen tonight. Bergesen has been electric over his last 3 starts, going 3-0 with an ERA of 2.33, and two of those wins came against Boston and Minnesota. It is also worth noting that the Orioles are 11-4 in Bergesen's last 15 home starts, 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a home favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies is struggling for the Royals. He's posted a 7.15 ERA in 4 road starts and his ERA is an even higher 7.80 over his last 3 starts. Davies also carries a 7.94 ERA in 3 career starts against the O's. It is also worth noting that the Royals are just 1-5 in Davies' last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Royals are just 19-48 in the last 67 meetings in this matchup, including 4-11 in their last 15 meetings in Baltimore. Bet the O's.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +1.45 over ST. LOUIS
Kyle Lohse (15 BPV, 0-2-5-0-1 PQS) has seen his strikeouts and walks regress and with batters getting better wood against him this year, the results haven’t been pretty. He’s needed 197 pitches to get through his last nine innings, so he clearly hasn’t found it yet. Not that he ever had “it”. Furthermore, the Cardinals are sinking faster than LeBron James’ chances of staying in Cleveland and if things don’t change soon something is going to give in St. Louis. As talked about in one of our earlier blogs, the Cards made a huge error in hiring Mark McGwire as its hitting coach. One can only imagine what the players are thinking when getting instructions from a guy that had a career batting average before steroids of .243. It’s like getting Shakespeare lessons from a high school dropout. It’s ludicrous and don’t think it doesn’t have a negative effect because it clearly has. The Cards have scored three runs or less in eight of its last 12 games. They just lost five of six games to Houston and Cincinnati and were swept by the Astros. Over its last dozen games the Cards are batting .231. Tony LaRussa is the most overrated manager ever. He’s had success only because of his pitching coach, Dave Duncan, who has taken pitchers off the scrap heap for years and made them effective. The players are being instructed by a liar and a cheat, (McGwire) or a guy with zero credibility. He was hired because he was going broke and needed a job so his pal LaRussa stepped up for him. The Cards are a go against team right now and you can be sure that the front office is putting pressure on LaRussa about McGwire. In other words, LaRussa is having a Jack Daniels right now. Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals laying significant juice is a huge risk that is not worth taking. Play: Washington +1.45 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.80 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)
It sure is tough to pull the trigger on the Pirates over the Phillies but this one is all about taking back a big price on Charlie Morton over Kyle Kendrick. Morton (83 BPV, 0-0-4-4-4 PQS) is due a break. His 9.19 ERA is downright unfair. He’s thrown three rock solid games in a row has lasted at least six innings in all of them. Morton has 27 K’s in 31 frames. He throws strikes and when you throw strikes you always have a chance to win. So, while the line-up he’ll face tonight needs no introduction, there’s a great chance the Pirates will score some runs against Kendrick (5 BPV, 3-1-3-3-2 PQS). Kendrick hasn’t been very impressive this season nor has he ever been. He has yet to show any skills over an extended period of time. He can implode at any time and is likely to even more at home. In fact, in three home starts, Kendrick has a BAA of .311 and an ERA of 6.59. Furthermore, the Phillies might get caught napping here after a five game trip to Colorado and Milwaukee in which they won four times including a three-game sweep this past weekend. This is a vulnerable spot against a vulnerable pitcher and the price seals the deal. Because this choice is largely based on going against Kendrick, we’re going to play this one in the first half. Play: Pittsburgh +1.80 in the first five innings).
John Ryan
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Houston Astros
3* graded play on Houston as they take on the Dodgers set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Astros will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 104-95 for just 52.3% winners, but has averaged a +169 DOG and has made a whopping 75.3 units since 2004. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season and after a win by 2 runs or less. These are the systems that really will make you money in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB. We commonly refer to them as ?Black Jack? systems as they are analogous to playing BJ and getting paid a huge amount for every hand played. Specifically, this system pays you $1.69 for every winning $1.00 hand played. So over the course of a betting night at the BJ table you can hit under 50% winners and still come out a big time winner. So, this system played 199 hands of BJ and won just 52% of the hands played, but still made $75.00 in profits. Take Houston.
Tony George
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Phoenix Suns +6.5
A ton of points here. While LA enjoyed some mis-matches on Utah, and the Jazz playing little or no defense and not contesting the rim, I like the Suns in this series to keep it tight, and keep it close. Without Kobe practicing up to this game, he may not be sharp and Grant Hill for the Suns has played some serious defense on shooting guards in the previous 2 series. Add in the fact the Suns can score from the outside, and I like the generous points here, regardless of the 3-1 advantage in the regular season for LA Straight up.
Teddy Covers
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds played their guts out over the weekend, taking two out of three from the St Louis Cardinals while moving into first place in the NL Central. Here’s a classic Dusty Baker quote, a clear indication of why the Reds are primed for a letdown as they face off against a hungry, desperate Brewers team tonight. Baker: “You’ve got to enjoy the moment - enjoy May 16th. My dad always said, ‘Enjoy today because tomorrow isn’t promised to anybody.’ ”
Cinci’s Johnny Cueto is in a prime ‘bet against’ spot today as well. Cueto threw his first career complete game in his last outing, holding the light hitting Pirates to a single hit. I’m always wary off a pitcher coming off his first career complete game, or a relatively rare dominant showing. Look no further than Dallas Braden’s loss in LA over the weekend immediately following his perfect game as a classic recent example.
The Brewers are 4-14 at Miller Park, coming off a disappointing 0-6 homestand. But the Brewers have been solid money winners on the highway, three games above .500. Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo has been nothing short of dominant, allowing two runs or less in each of his last six starts; striking out 46 batters in 35 innings of work. This is a prime bounce-back spot for the road team, making them worthy of a wager in this very reasonable price range. 2* Take Milwaukee.
Lee Kostroski
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Kansas City Royals
The managerial change for the Royals appears to have provided a positive boost for the team as the Royals are 2-1 since the official announcement of the move and the lone loss came in a one-run game that the Royals led most of the way. Going 3-8 on a road trip in early May likely doomed Trey Hillman, but it was a very tough scheduling stretch that included two four game series playing in Tampa Bay and Texas in between a three-game set in Chicago. The Royals are still ten games below .500 on the season but the early season schedule has been difficult and the Royals have been a solid offensive team.
The schedule improves for Kansas City this week as the Orioles have the worst record in baseball. Baltimore is just 7-11 in home games this season and Baltimore has been out-scored by 55 runs on the year. For the season Baltimore is hitting .250 compared with a .272 team average for the Royals. In the last ten games Baltimore is batting just .224 against right-handed pitching and in five of the last eight games the Orioles have scored two or fewer runs.
Kyle Davies allowed nine runs two starts ago in Texas for an ugly outing that has marred a solid season otherwise. 25-runs were scored in that game and Davies did not take the loss so it could be chalked up to offense friendly conditions in Arlington that day. Davies has not allowed more than four runs in any of his six other starts and he has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four outings. Opposing batters are hitting just .242 against Davies this season and the Kansas City bullpen has a 3.18 ERA over the last ten games.
Bradley Bergesen has pitched well in his last two starts but both outings came in favorable match-ups. His win in Minnesota came in very cool pitching friendly conditions and his win last week came against a weak hitting Seattle team that is having serious problems. Bergesen has just ten strikeouts in nearly 30 innings of work so his chances of long term success in the American League are slim and his home ERA is 6.64. The Baltimore bullpen has also had recent struggles with a 5.25 ERA in the last ten games. While neither of these teams has played great ball this season Kansas City has shown much more promise on offense and Davies has been a solid pitcher this season despite marginal numbers. With underdog value in what should be at worst an even match-up, the Royals look like a solid play Monday.
Black Widow
1* on Baltimore Orioles -130
Bradley Bergesen has been one bright spot on a struggling Orioles' team. Bergesen has a winning record this season and he is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Plus, it's not like he has faced weak competition, beating the likes of the Red Sox and Twins in the process. Royals' started Kyle Davis has imploded of late, going 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his career, Davies is 1-1 with a 7.94 ERA vs. Baltimore. Bergesen dominated the Royals in his only start against them last year, allowing 1 earned run in 7 innings for a 7-3 Baltimore victory. Bergesen is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 4-13 (-9.2 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Bergesen is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. He is the one starter that is giving Baltimore a great chance to win every time he takes the ball. Take the Orioles on the Money Line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oakland A's -154
With the Mariners being just 5-16 in their last 21 overall and 1-5 in their last 6 games in Oakland, it gives the A's an excellent opportunity to get off their snide tonight. The Mariners are the lowest scoring team in baseball and with only 1 run crossing the plate yesterday, we can note that they are 0-7 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. They are also a pathetic 5-23 in their last 28 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Athletics are 20-7 in their last 27 games as a home favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the A's.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox +132
The Sox are showing solid value in the underdog role today when you consider that the Tigers have dropped 15 of their last 21 series openers. Plus, Chicago puts a pitcher on the hill tonight with a long history of beating the Tigers. Garcia is 16-6 in his career (20-6 on the money line) when starting against Detroit with an ERA of 3.76. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 7-0 in Garcia's last 7 road starts vs. the Tigers. Take the Sox.
Red Dog Sports
LA Lakers -1.5 (1st quarter)
The Lakers are 5-0 in the playoffs at home in the first quarter. They have Kobe and underrated Pao Gasol inside. Fisher is usually good for some key shots too.
The Suns are playing well with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, Grant Hill, etc. but in their sweep of San Antonio they were down to the Spurs after one quarter in both games played on the road in Texas.
The Lakers led 29-26 back in December at home vs. the Suns and led 31-24 after one quarter at home back in November. The two LA home games before that led 39-26 (without Nash) and 29-25.
Phil Jackson's teams have done well in playoff series where they have won game one, so I like our chances for the Lakers to jump out early and lead by 2 or more tonight and cover the 1.5.
Let's hope Nash and Amare and the rest of the Suns get off to a slow start.
Also, shouldn't Andrew Bynum be known as Big Baby 2 with all of his injuries and lack of production?
Lakers -1.5 (1st quarter)
Larry Ness
TEX (-155) vs ANA
The Angels have won three consecutive AL West titles (five of last six, as well) and just completed a three-game home sweep of the A's (won twice by scores of 4-0). They now trail the Rangers by 2 1/2 games heading into the opener of this two-game series. Los Angeles will play 21 of its next 27 away from home and if the Angels are going to stay close in the West, they'll have to be MUCH better than they were on their recent 10-game trip, where they lost the first seven, before winning two of three at Seattle to end the trip 2-8. Scott Kazmir gets the start for LA and the lefty has not delivered since the team picked him up late last season from the Rays (maybe Tampa knew something?). Kazmir started strong for the Angels, posting a 1.73 ERA in six regular season starts (team was 4-2) but was terrible in two postseason starts, lasting just 10 innings while allowing nine ERs (8.10 ERA) with seven walks and just one strikeout. He's 2-3 with a 6.82 ERA in six starts (team is 2-4) to open the 2010 season and while he's 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Rangers (teams are 9-1), that could easily be considered "old news." Derek Holland gets the nod for Texas. The lefty went 8-13 (6.12 ERA) as a rookie last year, really struggling down the stretch (1-6 with a 10.19 ERA in his last seven starts). He opened the season in Triple-A after suffering a knee sprain in spring training but responded by going 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in six starts. He earned his call up and then delivered last Wednesday in his first start of 2010, pitching six scoreless innings in a 10-1 victory over Oakland. The Rangers are 13-7 at home this year and I'll back them against their former nemesis Kazmir. The operative word here being FORMER!
Sac Lawson
TOR (-104) vs MIN
Riding the hot streak here fellas.. Toronto has won 4 straight games, and as good as Minnesota is, fact is, they're not much better than a 0.500 team when we get them away from their home field. This game is tough, because we are indeed betting against the better of the two bullpens, but I really feel like the Toronto bats are hot right now, and I feel like we've got the better starter on the mound.
Slowey is on the hill for Minnesota, and this is a youngster who is just flat out hittable, and on top of it is 0-2 with a 6.53 ERA over the course of his career against Toronto, and in his only start IN Toronto he gave up 10 hits. Funny thing is, 10 hits isn't too rare for Slower, like I said, he's a hittable guy and these Toronto bats are definitely hitting right now. Dangerous combo.
On the other side, Eveland has been as inconsistent as you can possibly be so far this year, but I do like the guys stuff, and the thing we have going for us is the effectiveness against lefties. This Minnesota lineup is one of the few in the majors that is truly left-hand heavy. They pound the hell out of right handed pitching, but Eveland is a lefty and he's a lefty that only allows left handed bats to hit 0.170 on him. That means all the power bats for the Twins are in big trouble this evening. The funny thing is, Boston has been the one team to get to Eveland, if you take his two starts against Boston out, Eveland is having a fantastic year. I look for that solid left handed approach to be successful today.
I realize the numbers indicate that Minnesota has hit lefties well this year, but none of the lefties they've faced have been as effective as Eveland in pitching to left-handed bats. I really do feel like he's the better starter today, and I feel like Toronto has a hotter lineup, and the luxury of playing at home in the Rogers Center. At this short line, Toronto is a solid play. 1 unit on the Jays!
HOU (+147) vsLOS
This is going to be very brief. Fact is, I do not like John Ely, and I do not think he has a spot in a major league rotation. I will give him props, because his changeup has been phenomenal thus far, and it's getting tons and tons of groundball outs, and tons of strikeouts. Good for him. But, he's not going to continue to hit the zone with it, he never has, and his Fastball being at 88 and completely straight is going to get him into huge trouble.
Wandy has had a rough year thus far, but the Dodgers are without Ethier again, and coming off a terrible offensive performance last evening. And at the end of the day, Wandy is still the staff ace in Houston, and getting him at a +150 price against a kid that has career-long minor leaguer written all over him is just too good to pass up. Yes, I'll call this a value play, but in reality I actually do think that Houston wins this matchup more than 50% of the time.
Dan Bebe
SFG (-112) vs SDP
Triple revenge? Hell yes!
As this is one of two free plays, and one of three plays overall today, time is a little short for long writeups. Suffice it to say that when two pitchers go head-to-head 3 times in the season's first 7 weeks, it's an extremely cliche thing to say, but it's damn hard for one guy to win that battle all 3 times.
That's the case here, as Clayton Richard and Matt Cain battle for the 3rd time in the season's early months, and the Padres have won each of the first two meetings! Tonight, Cain strikes back.
I think we're getting an extremely low price on Cain because of those first 2 meetings, and because his career numbers against the Padres involve a lot of close losses. But we need to remember that every pitcher regresses to the mean, good or bad. Cain had a rough start at home against the Padres, walking 6 and allowing 5 runs, but this guy is a very, very good pitcher, and he won't duplicate that.
It doesn't take a genius to look at the WHIP of the two pitchers in this game and know what we should expect. Richard allows 1.5 runners per inning, yet seems to get out of jams. That is going to catch up with him. Cain's WHIP is just 1.125, very low for a starting pitcher, and seemed to get unlucky repeatedly.
So, this bet today is based on the double revenge angle as well as the idea that Cain has been unlucky, Richard lucky, and the Giants would love nothing more than to snag a win against their rivals from the South.
Take the Giants!
ATL / NYM Over 8.5
If Derek Lowe and Mike Pelfrey could ever reliably pitch well against the Mets and Braves, respectively, this game wouldn't be a value.
However, as it stands, that's not the case, and we're getting a GREAT number here, at 8.5, with two pitchers that generally make up the engine room of high-scoring head-to-head battles.
The best part of this wager is that we're getting the number 9, a key value in baseball. Yet, what struck me as interesting is that the marquee names of the pitchers involved has kept this line as low as it is. But, if we look at career numbers, Pelfrey is a 5.58 ERA pitcher against Atlanta, Lowe is a 7.61 ERA pitcher against the Mets, and Pelfrey has always been significantly worse when on the road.
On top of that, the Braves offense came alive yesterday against the D'backs, and I believe they continue to put up numbers today against a guy they have confidence in. In addition, Pelfrey wiggled his way through 5 solid innings against the Braves earlier this year, and with the same idea we expressed in the Giants/Padres game, if you continue to put runners on base as Pelfrey has done throughout his career against the Braves, eventually you're going to get burned.
Tonight, we have 8.5, which is a fantastic baseball number with two teams that should be able to get some runs. I don't trust either pitcher, both have struggled, and the Mets have a ton of confidence against Derek Lowe. I know this is a relatively vague write-up compared to most, but time is short!
Play the Over!
Rocco Vincintore
Boston at NY Yankees
Pick: NY Yankees
The Yankees are 44-11 in their last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter, the Yankees are 5-1 in Hughes' last 6 starts and the Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven games played in New York! Add it up and you have our 56-12 TRIPLE SITUATION WINNER on the Yankees! Did you know that Hughes has allowed 19 baserunners in his last 21 innings pitched with an ERA of .86 in his last three games.
O.C. Dooley
Cubs -125
The Cubs have been extremely inconsistent in the early stages of this season except for infielder Ryan Theriot who has carried a lofty batting average. Yesterday Theriot (elbow) was sidelined but WILL return to the lineup this evening. One has to wonder why the Cubs are favored considering the visiting Colorado just swept their opponent during the weekend. On the other hand Chicago who has the 3rd-highest payroll in baseball continues to struggle (16-22) which has drawn the ire of fiery manager Lou Piniella who is close to staging a tirade similar to the many he has been known for throughout his career. Going into yesterday’s contest Chicago had amazingly lost 7 consecutive times against lowly Pittsburgh and came very close to getting swept by the Pirates. The situation is completely different this evening as the Cubs have actually WON at a recent 9-1 clip at HOME against the Rockies. Going for Colorado is veteran Aaron Cook who on the ROAD dating back to last August (0-5, 9.79 ERA) has been for the most part a disaster. The only time Cook started a game inside Wrigley Field saw the hometown Cubs rally from a massive EIGHT run deficit to pull out a miracle victory. I am aware that Randy Wells in his past couple of Cubs starts (8.10 ERA) has been awful, but my database research indicates that for the entire season to date Colorado has gone a disastrous “0-6” after winning four-times in the prior 6 contests. As mentioned earlier the Cubs are on a 9-1 roll at HOME against the Rockies and I expect that trend to continue