SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Boston (11-3 SU and ATS)
The red-hot Celtics aim to complete a shocking sweep of the second-seeded Magic in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals at TD Garden.
Boston hammered a desperate Orlando team Saturday night, allowing just 12 first-quarter points on the way to a 94-71 bashing as a 3½-point home favorite to take an ostensibly insurmountable 3-0 series lead. Glen Davis (17 points) led a balanced attack, as six Celtics scored in double figures, with Rajon Rondo netting a dozen assists to go with his 11 points. Boston, the No. 4 seed in the East, also forced 17 turnovers and committed just nine.
Boston has now won six in a row SU and ATS against the teams that posted the top two regular-season records, taking Games 4, 5 and 6 from the top-seeded Cavs before snagging the first three from the Magic.
Orlando had only three players score in double figures Saturday, and none were named Dwight Howard, who had a meager seven points and seven rebounds. Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson scored 15 apiece, but the Magic shot a dismal 36.9 percent (24 of 65), hitting just 8 of 30 from three-point land (26.7 percent). Stan Van Gundy’s troops allowed the Celtics to shoot 46.6 percent overall (34 of 73) and 54.5 percent from long distance (6 of 11).
No team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, in 93 previous opportunities.
Boston is 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the last six meetings with Orlando, and the Celts’ SU and ATS win in Game 3 halted a 7-0 ATS tear by the visitor and the underdog in this rivalry, a streak that dated to Game 7 of last year’s second-round playoff series – won by Orlando. Doc Rivers’ squad is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home starts against the Magic.
The SU winner has cashed in each of Boston’s last 24 games overall, including all 14 playoff contests, and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 19 contests.
Boston is 30-18 SU this season at the Garden but just 18-29-1 ATS. In the playoffs, though, the Celtics are 6-1 SU and ATS at home. Orlando is 29-17 (26-19-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 12 of its last 15 away from home (10-4-1 ATS), with Saturday’s meltdown marking its first SU and ATS road loss in this year’s playoffs.
The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference finals tilts, but despite the debacle in this series, they remain on several positive pointspread sprees, including 20-8-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 10-4-1 after a non-cover, 18-7-1 after a day off and 16-7 against Atlantic Division foes.
Along with their 11-3 ATS mark in the postseason (6-0 last six), the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 6-1 at home, 4-0 in conference finals contests, 6-0 after a day off, 7-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 laying points.
Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 8-2-1 overall (6-1 last seven), 40-12-1 after a non-cover, 28-9 after a SU loss, 9-3 as a pup (all on the road) and 37-13-1 after a day off. Likewise, Boston is on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall (4-0 last four), 10-2 in conference finals contests (6-1 last seven), 5-1 after a day off and 6-2 as a playoff chalk.
Finally, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 11 Celtics-Magic clashes overall, including six of seven this season, with all three games of this series falling short of the posted number. Also, the last five meetings between these two in Boston have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (24-21) at Tampa Bay (32-12)
The Red Sox, winners of five of their last six, head to Tropicana Field for a key three-game set with right-hander Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) on the hill opposite the Rays’ Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35).
Boston took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 8-3 victory. Still, the Red Sox remain just 4-7 in their last 11 road games and 8-20 in their last 28 on the road against teams with a winning percentage of .600.
Tampa, which has the best record in baseball and leads Boston by 8½ games in the A.L. East, has won eight of its last nine, including four of five on a road trip that ended Sunday with a 10-6 win in Houston. The Rays are on several hot streaks, including 38-14 overall, 123-56 at home, 23-6 against A.L. East teams and 12-5 in series openers.
The Rays swept a four-game set in mid-April in Boston, dominating the Red Sox in outscoring them 24-9. Also, the Rays have taken 17 of the last 23 series clashes in Tampa (playoffs included).
Buchholz is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three road starts this season, allowing just four earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. He’s coming off Wednesday’s 3-2 home win over Minnesota, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings, striking out seven and walking just one. With Buchholz on the hill, the Red Sox are just 2-8 on the road against winning teams, but 7-0 in his last seven road starts, 7-0 in his last seven series openers, 9-3 in his last 12 after four days off and 7-3 in his last 10 against A.L. East teams.
Buccholz faced the Rays on April 17 and gave up four runs (none earned) on three hits over five innings, but suffered the 6-5 home loss. He’s 2-2 with a 2.01 ERA in five career starts versus Tampa
Davis beat the Yankees on Wednesday in the Bronx, giving up two runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 10-6 victory. Tampa has won five of his last seven starts, including an April 16 win in Boston when he gave up one run on two hits over five innings of a 3-1 victory. In his only previous career start against the Red Sox – last September at Fenway Park – Davis got rocked, allowing eight runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-1 loss.
Davis is 2-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four starts at The Trop this season.
For the Red Sox, the under is on surges of 23-7-1 as road ‘dogs, 33-17-3 as ‘dogs anywhere and 4-1-1 when Buchholz starts as a pup, but they are on “over” runs of 5-0 on Monday, 5-2-2 in series openers, 8-3-1 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts overall and 4-1 when Buchholz pitches on Monday.
Tampa has stayed below the total in 15 of 22 overall, eight straight at home, five of seven in series openers and 35 of 55 at home against losing teams, but the Rays are also on “over” streaks of 10-3 on Monday and 5-1 against A.L. East teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over has cashed in three of the last four matchups in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
DUNKEL INDEX
Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to close out the series and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Boston is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7)
Game 513-514: Orlando at Boston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 123.073; Boston 135.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 12 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7); Under
MLB
Boston at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to build on their 17-6 record in their last 23 home games against Boston. Tampa Bay is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135)
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burres) 15.328; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.263
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.228; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.151
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+145); Over
Game 955-956: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.063; Tampa Bay (Davis) 17.473
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Over
Game 957-958: Toronto at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 14.868; LA Angels (Saunders) 16.305
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
NHL
Montreal at Philadelphia
The Flyers look to close out the series and take advantage of a Montreal team that is 2-5 in its last 7 playoff games as an underdog from +150 to +200. Philadelphia is the pick (-180) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180)
Game 67-68: Montreal at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.036; Philadelphia 14.210
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over
Matt Fargo
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Over 9.5
We come out with a rare totals play for Monday in this spot. Pittsburgh is coming off a five-game homestand where the last four games were all low scoring and stayed below the number. That will point people toward another ‘Under’ play here however looking at the contrarian side, the Pirates can easily break out on offense and we get some value in the total that was released based on the recent results. On the other side, the Reds are coming off a five-game roadtrip where the first four games went ‘Over’ with yesterday’s game staying below the number even it was a game that easily could have, and arguably should have, gone ‘Over’ as well. Cincinnati is hitting .296 over its last 10 games so momentum is on its side for the offense to continue rolling along. The Pirates send Brian Burres to the hill and he has been either really good or really bad. In two starts against the Cubs and Giants he allowed 11 runs in eight innings while in three other starts against the Cubs, Brewers and Dodgers, he allowed three runs in 18 innings. Which Burres do we get tonight? I think we will see the former since those two bad starts both came on the road and throughout his career, he has not shown enough consistency to prove eh can put together back-to-back quality outings. He has actually done that only three times in his career, covering 46 starts. He goes up against Aaron Harang who is having troubles of his own. He has been up and down all year and his last two starts were nearly identical as he allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Cardinals and Braves. He has a 6.02 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the season those numbers jump to a 6.82 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in six starts under the lights. The ‘Over’ is 7-2 in the Pirates last nine road games against teams with a winning record while the ‘Over’ is 4-1-1 in the Reds last six home games against teams with a losing record. 3* Over Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds
Rob Vinciletti
Blue Jays vs. Angels
Play: Under 9
Both of these teams have struggled vs left handed pitching this season. Toronto is averaging a shade over 2 runs and hitting just .189. The Angels are averaging just 3.5 runs per game on .229 hitting vs leftys. In the pitching match up the Angles have J.Saunders tonight and he has been spectacular in his past 3 starts with a 0.81 era. He has already shutdown down Toronto this season going 8 innings without allowing an earned run. Toronto counters with B.Cecil and he has a respectable American league road era of 3.42. Look for this game to go under tonight.
BIG AL
Blue Jays @ Angels
PICK: Over 9
The Angels seem to have solved their scoring woes, at least for now as they've plated 36 runs in their last six games. Those games were on the road and this three-game series against the Jays is at home, but that's OK because Los Angeles has lefty Joe Saunders going for it, and Saunders has gotten plenty of run support recently in his home starts. In fact, the over is 11-5 in Saunders' last 16 outings in his home ballpark. Toronto's lefthander Brett Cecil has the advantage of pitching for the team with the most home runs in the Majors this season, and Cecil has been a beneficiary of this, including two starts ago when his team beat the Rangers by a 16-10 margin and no less than five different Blue Jays batters connected on round-trippers. In fact, Cecil's 5.6 runs per game of support is slightly better than the 5.2 run average that the Toronto hitters backed him with in 2009. And Cecil gets his best run support when he's on the road, as indicated by his 5.19 road ERA to go with a 7-2 record in 11 starts. The only way a pitcher can win that percentage of games with that type of ERA is if the bats are showing up. Take the 'over.
Jack Jones
Blue Jays/Angels OVER 9
The Blue Jays are scoring a whopping 7.0 RPG in their last 10 games overall, while allowing 4.8 RPG in the process. The Angels are scoring 6.1 RPG in their last 9 games while also giving up 6.2 RPG in their last 6 contests. So these are two hot teams at the plate right now and each should find solid success at the dish tonight against their opposing starters. Brett Cecil has been rocked of late, going 1-1 with an 8.57 ERA and 2.050 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Joe Saunders just cannot seem to find his groove at home, going 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in 5 home starts.
The Blue Jays are 21-5-1 to the OVER in their last 27 Game 1's. Toronto has gone 3-0-1 to the OVER in their previous four games while the Angels have gone 4-0 to the OVER in their last 4 games. The Angels are 11-5 to the OVER in Saunders' last 16 home starts and 12-4 to the OVER in Saunders' last 16 starts working on only 4 days' rest. Finally, 8 of the last 9 meetings in this head-to-head series have seen at least 9 combined runs scored. Take the OVER Monday.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago White Sox -152
This is more of a fade against the Indians and starter Justin Masterson. Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 7 games overall and they have failed to score more than 4 runs in all seven games. Masterson is 0-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, 0-10 (-10.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons, and 0-11 (-12.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing his teams losing by at least 4.2 runs/game in all four spots. The White Sox send their best starter to the mound Monday in John Danks, who is 3-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.060 WHIP this season. Masterson is 0-4 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.814 WHIP this year for Cleveland. The White Sox come into this game having lost 5 of 6 to the Indians this season, so they'll be hungy for some payback starting with Game 1 of this series. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.
JIM FEIST
PIRATES / REDS
TAKE: OVER
The surging Reds open a seven-game home series this week at Great American Ball Park. And, what better way then to welcome the Pirates, a team they have dominated of late. The Reds have taken eight of the last 10 meetings from the Pirates. The last time these clubs met in Pittsburgh, the Reds swept the series, outscoring the Bucs by a 16-1 margin. The Reds are led by hard hitting joey Votto. Votto has been a nightmare for the Pirates, hitting .375 against them with four home runs and 22 RBIs in 35 games. Brian Burres starts for the Pirates and is 2-1 this season with a 4.91 ERA. He will be opposed by Aaron Harang who is just 2-5 for the Reds with a 6.02 ERA. The price is a bit steep to lay here with the Reds, but I fully expect Cincinnati to score at will in this series as they did at Pittsburgh. Therefore, I will take the OVER here on Monday.
James Patrick
White Sox vs. Indians
Ozzie Guillen won't forget his teams lackluster effort when the Tribe played in the Windy City earlier this season and with the Chisox (4-0) in Monday action and the Tribe just (6-16) versus lefthanded starters we'll look for Chicago to add another loss to Cleveland ledger of (3-15) in Justin Masterson's past (18) starts.
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Angels -120
The Angels starting pitcher Joe Saunders is only 3-5 this season with an ERA of 4.42, but after a slow start to this year Saunders has really been pitching well. Over his last three starts, Saunders is 2-0 with an ERA of only 0.81. The Blue Jays starting pitcher Brett Cecil has not been pitching well. Over his last three starts Cecil has an ERA of 8.56. Cecil has a great fastball, but his control is a problem and I expect the Angels to have success against him in this game. The Blue Jays are only 2-5 in the last seven trips to Anaheim and Toronto is only 2-6 in their last eight games against a left handed starter. Play on the Angels.
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando at BOSTON (-7)
I handed out the FREE winner on Sunday night with the Mets as they beat the Yankees in the Subway Series. It improved my comp record to 100-79-3. Tonight I am delivering on the hardwood with a free winner on the Celtics as they wrap up the Eastern Conference title with a blowout of the Magic.
What reason do we have to believe the Magic are going to put up a fight tonight in Boston? They haven’t made any big adjustments this whole series and just got pounded on Saturday 94-71. There’s no reason to believe anything will change tonight. Go ahead and lay the chalk and play the Celtics to get this one and advance to the NBA Finals.
Boston went into Orlando and took the first two games, then led wire-to-wire against Orlando Saturday, dominating from the opening tip. They got solid play from everyone, but you could tell the Magic are just not into this series. They are taking far too many one-on-one moves, not passing the ball well and just seemingly not caring.
The Magic shot just 36.9 percent from the floor and turned the ball over 17 times, and were once again outrebounded by the Celtics, this time 43-36. Just looking at the Magic players during the game and the expressions on the faces told me they don’t care what happens today. They are not interested. What happened to this team from the first two rounds to this one is amazing, considering they were the ones demoralizing the opponents.
On the other side, Boston seems to have it rolling, winning six straight playoff games and cashing at the betting window all six times. They are playing better than in 2008 when they won the NBA championship and it’s all thanks to PG Rajon Rondo who is going everything for this team, including leading them in hustle points.
Orlando is on ATS slides of 0-4 as a road ‘dog and 1-4 in their last five Conference Finals games. On the other side, the Celtics are 7-1 ATS at home against teams with winning road records and 6-0 when they get a day off.
Boston has cashed in five of the last six meetings and 15 of the last 22 in Beantown. I’m liking the attitude of the Celtics and I’m liking their defensive intensity. Lay the chalk as this one turns into a double-digit winner for Boston.
4♦ BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Toronto at LA ANGELS (-125)
For Monday night, I am backing the Angels over the Blue Jays.
LA is back at home after dropping 2 of 3 in St. Louis, while Toronto continues on the road after snapping a 3 game slide with the win at Arizona yesterday.
The Angels have already won the first 3 meetings in the series, sweeping 3 at the Rogers Centre in the middle of April.
Included in that sweep was a solid 8 innings of work from tonight's starter Joe Saunders who did not allow an earned run in the win. Saunders has won his last pair of starts, allowing just 1 earned run in his last 17 innings of work.
Look for the lefty to shut down the Toronto attack, and for the Angels to make it 4-0 in the season series over the Jays.
The road gets a little long for Toronto tonight, as LA puts it to them.
1♦ LA ANGELS
Tom Freese
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
Angels starter Joe Saunders has allowed 4 runs total in his last 3 starts. Los Angeles is 27-9 when Saunders pitches Game One of a series. The Angels are 20-8 with Saunders when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. Toronto starter Brett Cecil has allowed 13 runs in his 12.1 innings of work. The Blue Jays are 5-11 their last 16 road games vs. lefty starters. Toronto is 1-4 their last 5 meetings with the Angels and they are 2-5 their last 7 Monday games. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES
SPORTS WAGERS
Orlando +7½ over BOSTON
What we have here is an inflated line due to the Celtics complete dominance in this series. Remember, the Magic were a 6½-point choice in game one, a 7-point favorite in game 2 and now there’s a 14-14½ swing in the point spread in game four? Wow. The Magic may bet blown away again but if they have any pride whatsoever, they’ll come out and play their hearts out from start to finish. Team’s with a 3-0 lead have a tendency to get a little complacent figuring that the series is over and while they’re probably right this is a lot of points to be spotting a team that figures to go down fighting hard. The C’s have come in with a near flawless game plan and they’ve executed it to near perfection but again, a little Celtic letdown and a few early three’s by Orlando and the Magic could absolutely keep this one well within this range and possibly even win. They could go home completely embarrassed but to avoid that all they need to do is play hard for 48 minutes and put forth a strong showing regardless of whether they win or lose. One thing is for certain; this line is inflated and that’s always the best time to step in. Play: Orlando +7½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.64 over CINCINNATI
Aaron Harang should not be this big a price over anyone and that’s all there is to it. To begin with, the Reds are 2-7 when Harang starts and that alone makes him a huge risk. He comes in with a well-deserved 6.02 ERA and .316 BAA after allowing 67 hits in 52 innings. Harang has allowed 10 bombs already this year and while the Pirates could make him or anyone else look good, Harang is still too much of a big risk to warrant laying –1.75 on. The Pirates have won its last two games in which Brian Burres started. He’s not going to dazzle anyone but he’s getting good run support and he’s giving the Pirates a chance to win. If you throw out a recent start he had at Wrigley with the wind blowing out (the total in that game was 10½), Burres has only allowed three earned runs over his last 19.1 innings and that includes shutting out the Dodgers in 5.1 frames. The fact that Harang has been so frequently knocked around gives the Pirates a great chance to win here and at this price they’re certainly worth a look. Play: Pittsburgh +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.17 over L.A. ANGELS
Brett Cecil remains one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game and the fact that the Angels have never seen him makes him even more appealing here. Cecil throws strikes and he’s very capable of striking out guys, as his 30 K’s in 34 innings will attest to. His only rough outing of the year came in Arlington and if you take away that start he would have dazzling numbers. Joe Saunders has walked 23 and struck out 25. His last three games have come against Seattle, Oakland and the White Sox and that would explain his 0.81 ERA over his last three starts. Prior to those last three games, Saunders was 1-5 with an ERA of 7.04 and the fact of the matter is he’s just an average pitcher. One also must consider the current state of the Angels bullpen. They were absolutely crushed over the weekend in St. Louis and if you can’t get guys out in that park against that team, it says a lot. The Angels pen is dead last in the AL with a 5.33 ERA. They’re also averaging seven walks every nine innings and they’re dead last in the AL with 89 walks issued. In fact, they’re just about dead last in every key category and unless Saunders can go seven or more, the Angels are extremely vulnerable. So, we get the better offense, the better defense, the better starter, the better bullpen and a tag to boot. Play: Toronto +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll back the Rays tonight at home against Boston, as Tampa Bay has had great success against the Red Sox here at home. In the last three years, Tampa is 16-6 against the Red Sox here, and they start Wade Davis who shut down Boston to just one run over five innings in his only start against them his year. Buchholz was roughed up for four runs over five innings in his lone 2010 meeting, and we still don’t trust the Boston offense enough to beat a good pitcher on the road.
Play on: Tampa Bay Rays