Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -138
After getting crushed to the tune of 13-0 yesterday, and after 5 straight losses to Cleveland this season, the White Sox should not be lacking any motivation tonight. They should be in good hands with the lefty Danks too as he is dealing (2.26 ERA this season). The key will be if Chicago can give him the run support he needs, and I like their chances Masterson (0-4 w/ a 5.65 ERA this season). The Tribe found a way to win yesterday, but they have still dropped 6 of their last 7. The Indians are 3-15 in Masterson's last 18 starts, 0-8 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog and 0-7 in his last 7 series opening starts. It is also worth noting that the White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 7-2 in Danks' last 9 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss. Take the Sox.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
TAM (-130) vs BOS
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Clay Buchholz heads to the mound for the visitors; Buchholz has pitched well this year; he's 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA.
But, just like his team, Buchholz has struggled at times vs. the Rays; 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA lifetime at Tropicana; the Red Sox are 1-4 their last five vs. Tampa Bay; they're also just 14-15 (-5.4 units) vs. right-handed starters.
In the other dugout: Right-hander Wade Davis gets the nod for the home team; Davis battled through a game vs. the Yanks on Wednesday night and earned the victory to improve to 4-3 on the year; he allowed two runs on seven hits over 5 2/3's innings; he walked three and had seven K's; he has an ERA of 3.35.
Although he's struggled against the Red Sox in the past, I expect Davis, who has consistently pitched between 5 to 7 innings on average this season, with 2-3 runs allowed, to build off his last performance as he gets the benefit of throwing in front of the home town crowd.
Not only is Tampa Bay 5-1 its last six at Tropicana Field, it's also 8-1 its last nine overall; already 14-4 (+9.8 units) vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: The Rays have the best mark in all of baseball, thanks to a 14-4 run against AL East opponents; Tampa swept the Red Sox at Fenway at the beginning of the year outscoring Boston 24-9 over the four game series.
Tampa has been sharp on the road as well and is coming off a 4-1 road trip after stomping on the Astros 10-6 yesterday.
Boston has won five of six, which included a very satisfying victory over Roy Halladay and the Phillies yesterday; I expect a letdown tonight.
When taking into account all of the above factors, you may want to consider a second look at Wade Davis and the TAMPA BAY RAYS in this situation.
Gamblers World
Toronto Blue Jays at LA Angels
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Angels send Joe Saunders our to face Brent Cecil in a battle of lefties in Anaheim, after a weekend of tough interleague play for both teams. Saunders has certainly not impressed so far this season and got shelled in both of his last 2 outings. Cecil has shown some solid effort with 8 and 10 strikeouts in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays have been exceptional on grass fields this season at 14-7 and up over 9 units ATS. In a day where the board is pretty bare, we like Cecil to dominate the struggling Angels.
BEN BURNS
White Sox @ Indians
PICK: Indians +1.5
While they haven't done the well against the rest of the league, the Indians have fared very well against the White Sox this season. In fact, they've beaten them five straight times, going 5-1 (+5.3) on the season. Here, we get the White Sox coming off a 13-0 blowout loss and the Indians coming off a much-needed victory, one which snapped their long losing streak.
I respect Danks. However, the Sox rarely give him much in terms of run support. Additionally, he doesn't have a very good record vs. the Tribe. In fact, he's just 2-5 with a 4.89 ERA in 10 starts vs. Cleveland. While the White Sox have gone 4-6 in those games, note that three of the victories came by a single run. In other words, they'd be just 1-9 in Danks' 10 starts vs. the Indians, if being asked to lay -1.5 runs.
Conversely, Masterson has a 1.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in three starts vs. Chicago. He already beat them this season (5-3 win on 4/8) and his previous start against them saw him pitch a complete game but lose 1-0.
After yesterday's win, the Indians finally have some positive momentum. As pitcher David Huff noted, "Now we roll. It's been a tough couple weeks. But now we've got to move on and get ready for the next one."
While many teams tend to bounce back with a big effort off a shutout loss, the Sox are just 11-15 (-5.8) in that situation the past couple of seasons. In what could easily be a close game, consider playing Cleveland on the run-line (at +1.5 runs.)
Hollywood Sports
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Clay Buchholz is emerging as one of the best pitchers in the American League with his 5-3 record and 3.26 ERA. Buchholz pitches well against the Rays as well given his 2.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .195. And Buchholz is tough on the road. This season, he sports a 1.86 ERA and a .233 opponent's batting average away from home in three starts this season. The Red Sox have also won the last seven road games when Buchholz took the mound. Tampa Bay sends out rookie Wade Davis who is 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA. But this first-year hurler is showing some cracks in his armor as he has a 4.32 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and a 1-2 record over his last three starts. Davis has not been as effective at home at Tropicana Field either given his 4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and a .253 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 2.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and opponent's batting average of .224 when on the road. As a small underdog, the suddenly surging Red Sox offer nice value against their AL East rival. Play Boston with the money line while listing both starting pitchers.
THE PREZ
Blue Jays @ Angels
PICK: Under 9
Weather: Sunny and cool with temps in the low 60's at first pitch. Winds blowing in from rightfield at 10 mph
Joe Saunders has found his command over his last three outings and in his last two trips to the mound he's offered evidence the control on his off-speed stuff is back. The Angels lefty handcuffed the A's with a four-hit complete game shutout two starts back and then was just as impressive on Wednesday in Chicago where he allowed one run on four hits with two walks and four strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings of work. Saunders 4.1/9 BB ratio was the cause of his April struggles but a start against the Blue Jays tonight offers him a chance to string together a third straight QS. The southpaw posted a 2.55 ERA over his final eight starts last year, rallying for his second consecutive 16-win season; and if he has found the arm slot that allowed him to dominate in the final two months of '09, Toronto hitters will find it tough surfing tonight in Anaheim.
The Blue Jays have been miserable against left-handers this season recording a league low .565 OPS in 350 at-bats. They rank dead last with a batting average of .191 and have scored a paltry 32 runs against southpaws in 31 games. The Toronto offense has but 28 extra-base hits in 350 official at-bats against lefties and have won three of nine games in starts against lefties because of their pitching, not hitting. Give Sanders a good chance to find his way through six-to-seven innings tonight against an offense that scored 12 runs on Sunday afternoon at hitter-friendly Chase Field.
While the Jays have struggled in games against lefties, their own southpaw starter, Brett Cecil, should not be overlooked. Cecil raised eyebrows in early May taking a perfect game into the 7th inning against the Indians, an outright dominating performance of 10 strike outs, 2 walks, 1 base hit, and 1 earned run through eight innings of work. The Blue Jays’ prospect, like most young pitchers struggled with the long ball and walks in 2009, allowing 1.64 HR/9 and 3.66 BB/9. While he did have strong strike out numbers in Low-A (10.15 K/9), High-A (9.58 K/9), AA (10.08 K/9) and AAA (9.10 K/9) in the 2008 season, Cecil experienced a drastic drop in his K/9 last season in AAA (5.88 K/9) and at the MLB level (6.65 K/9) but has since improved his changeup and raised his swing and miss ratio by nearly 5 percent in and out of the strikezone by being more aggressive with his fastball/change-up mix.
How much fun is Cecil having with his new found command, velocity and improved change up? The Jays lefty performed his best Mister Magoo impersonation in his last start against Seattle. Cecil forgot his eyeglasses back in Toronto so he pitched against the Mariners without them.
According to the Toronto Sun, “We were out in the bullpen when I told John (Buck, the catcher),” Cecil said. “I said ‘This should be fun ... I don’t have my glasses.’ I think John was pretty worried he was going to put down one finger (the fastball signal) and I was going to throw a curve.”
It should be noted that Cecil’s lens correction is fairly mild and he was able to see Buck’s signals, or at least his performance suggested such. Throughout the night, Cecil attacked the strike zone against the light-hitting Mariners and that approach got him into the seventh inning before the M's could cross home plate. It was the lefty’s third win of the season, and more importantly a confidence builder heading into tonight's contest against the Halos. Cecil (3-2) came into the Seattle contest off two sub-par outings, so to see the young southpaw relaxed enough to bounce back from the two poor efforts, this after taking his perfect game into the seventh inning in Cleveland, is a promising sign and evidence that the young hurler believes he belongs. Cecil got just what he needed working a quality start into the seventh inning against the M's, allowing two runs, handing the game over to the bullpen. Expect the same results tonight.
The Angels have had more success against lefties than the Blue Jays, but they have experienced their own struggles in this arena, too. LA has scored only 55 runs in 39 games against LH pitching and have recorded soft 2010 numbers in this situation (.248 BA .303 OBP .409 SLG).
Cecil will face the Angels for the first time offering him the advantage the first two times through the lineup and Saunders is 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA in six lifetime starts against Toronto.
Additionally, playing to the UNDER on road teams (Toronto) with a team batting average of .255 or less on the season after a getaway day win by six runs or more has been a 75% proposition over the last five MLB campaigns. The trend is 45-15 over that span, 8-5 this season and has seen an average of seven runs per game scored in this scenario.
Feel more than comfortable playing UNDER 9 runs tonight in LA.
5* Play on the UNDER 9 runs
TEDDY COVERS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay has been the single most profitable team to support in all of baseball this year, earning their backers more than 14 units of profits on a single unit per game basis. The Rays 32-12 record is the best in baseball, and their 19-5 mark on the highway is by far the best road record of the 30 MLB teams.
Rays supporters are clearly doing well this year. But it’s surely worth noting that all of Tampa Bay’s profits – every dollar – have come supporting this team on the road. If you’ve played the Rays in every home game in 2010, you’re dead even; nary a penny’s worth of profits.
It’s still early in the season, but this is a huge series for the Red Sox, who trail the Rays by 8.5 games in the standings. Much of that deficit comes from the four game sweep that Tampa Bay put together at Fenway Park last month, when the Rays outscored the Red Sox 24-9. At the time, the Red Sox lineup was ice cold. That’s certainly not the case right now – the Sox pounded out eight runs in their win at Philly yesterday, and have averaged more than 5.5 runs per game over their last dozen contests.
The Red Sox have won four of Clay Buchholz’s last five starts. In his last two outings, against solid lineups in Minnesota and Detroit, Buchholz has been dominant, allowing just eight hits and three runs in 14.1 innings of work. Meanwhile, Tampa rookie hurler Wade Davis has been decidedly mediocre since his hot start, allowing 28 baserunners in 16.2 innings of work in his last three outings, two of which came against the light hitting Mariners and A’s. Look for Boston to steal a win here, tightening up what is sure to be a very competitive race in the AL East. 2* Take Boston.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -130
The Rays have had Boston's number. They are a perfect 4-0 against Boston this season and 17-6 in the last 23 meetings in Tampa Bay. I shouldn't just say the Red Sox. The Rays have actually dominated the entire division. They are 23-6 in their last 29 vs. the American League East. Plus, they flat out get it done at home where they are 123-56 in their last 179 home games. Boston is playing well and Buchholz has been dealing, but the Red Sox are just 6-13 in his last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 2-8 in his last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays have won 5 of Davis' 8 starts this season including one over Boston on April 17th. I'll take the Rays here.
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox +122
Reasons the Red Sox win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, with a winning record on the season. This is a 59-45 ML System hitting 60.5% since 1997 and gaining +39 units.
2.) After getting swept by the Rays in their first series of the season, Boston will be looking for payback in this series. It starts with Game 1 and starter Clay Buchholz, who has posted a 2.01 ERA in five lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Red Sox are 7-0 in Buchholz's last 7 road starts. Rays' starter Wade Davis has posted a 10.56 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in two lifetime starts vs. Boston. Bet the Red Sox on the road.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Pirates/Reds OVER 9
Pittsburgh is 8-0 OVER in road games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season, and we are seeing 12.1 runs scored on average in these games. It is also 9-0 OVER after 2 straight games where it stranded 10 or more runners on base over the last 3 seasons, and we are seeing 11.7 runs scored on average in these games. Harang is carrying a 6.02 ERA on the season and Burres is carrying an ERA of 7.43 on the road. Plus, Burres has been over this number in 6 of his last 7 starts. Take the Over in Cincy tonight.