Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday May, 28

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Washington Nationals

The Nats and Marlins open a three-game series at new Marlins Park Monday afternoon where Jordan Zimmerman matches serves with Carlos Zambrano. Zimmerman enters the fray in great KW form with 17 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts while Zambrano appears to be unraveling with 12 strikeouts and 11 walks in his last three outings. With Zambrano's home ERA (4.50) nearly three runs higher than his road ERA (1.75) this season, look for Zimmerman to improve to 2-0 in his career team starts in South Florida here this Memorial Day afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play n Washington.

Sam Martin

Royals at Indians
Prediction: Under

We took a big 20* MLB Total of the Month winner on the Over in Indians vs. White Sox game yesterday - and that one was an easy game for as as those two teams went over the total in the fourth inning en route to an 18-run combined final score. But that game was in Chicago, and now the Indians return home where they play much differently. In fact, in their last six home games the Under has cashed five times, with the lone Over just inching a half-run above a low 7.5-run total. Kansas City hasn't scored much even in their victories, and in fact they've been held to four runs or less in five straight. Indians pitching reverts back to their normal form as this one stays well under the total tonight.

Michael Alexander

Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Chicago White Sox

CHICAGO is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter

CHICAGO is 4-0 in Sales last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game

TAMPA BAY is 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

This game fits a nice system that has won 13 of 15 times and plays on home favorites Like Boston off a loss if they had 5 or more hits and left 5 or more men on base vs an opponent off a road favored win and scored 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits and 10 or more men left on base which applies to Detroit. Boston has won 6 of 7 on Monday and scores 5.5 runs in day games. The Tigers have a pitching edge with Fister over Doubront but have a terrible 5.68 road bullpen era. Doubront has pitched much better of late with a 2.04 era for Boston. Look for Boston to take the opener here today.

Sean Murphy

Washington Nationals @ Miami
PICK: Miami

The Nationals entered their current road trip playing rather poorly, but have since turned things back around, notching back-to-back series wins over the division rival Phillies and Braves.

I'm not convinced they can keep it going on Monday, however, as they run into a highly-motivated Marlins club that is in the thick of the N.L. East race.

The Nats' go from being the 'hunters' to the 'hunted' in this spot. Remember, they took both games in a rain-shortened series against the Fish in Washington back in mid-April. Miami wasn't playing good baseball at the time, but certainly are right now, and have been for the entire month. The Marlins enter Monday's game sporting an 18-8 record in May.

Miami is coming off a disappointing one-run loss on Sunday, but is in good position to bounce back here. Note that the Marlins will benefit from staying at home, while the Nationals travel from Atlanta, after now wrapping up the series finale until late last night (ESPN game).

Jordan Zimmermann gets the call for the visiting Nats'. He's been terrific this season, posting a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, but only has a 3-4 record to show for it. Run support, or lack thereof, has been a major issue, as he's received just north of three runs per game. Note that Zimmermann has faced the Marlins five times over the course of his career, posting a 1-4 team record.

Carlos Zambrano will counter for the Marlins. He's coming off an awful outing against the Rockies, in which he allowed seven earned runs over five innings in an 8-4 loss. Starts like that have been few and far between, however, as he's recorded a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP so far this season. Like Zimmermann, Zambrano has also been plagued by a lack of run support, but that trend has started to reverse lately, as he's received 19 runs over his last four outings.

We're laying a reasonable price with what should be an extremely hungry, and focused Marlins club on Monday afternoon. The Nats' have been a terrific story, and will continue to be, but I expect to see them get tripped up in this spot.

David Chan

Phillies @ Mets
PICK: Under

The Phillies' (25-23) Cole Hamels (7-1, 2.17 ERA) is set to square off against the Mets' (27-21) Jonathan Niese (3-2, 4.29 ERA) on the mound this afternoon.

Hamels is arguably the hottest pitcher in all of baseball right now. He scattered four hits over eight scoreless frames vs. the Nats last Wednesday. So far he's struck out 66 batters over his 62 1/3's innings of work. He's 3-0 on the road with a 1.93 ERA this season.

Niese looked fantastic in his last start, giving up just a single run over 7 2/3's innings of work in his team's 3-1 victory over the Pirates on Wednesday. Niese would give up five hits while striking out five and walking two in the outing. The big south-paw has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, and has given up more than three earned runs in just two of his nine starts overall this year. Niese is 1-0 with a 3.79 ERA at Citi Field.

The opener of this three game set has "pitchers duel" written all over it; consider a second look at the "under"!

Freddy Wills

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

I like the odds we are getting with the Pirates with their ace James McDonald on the mound. McDonald is really turning into a stud as he posts a 0.82 WHIP and a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts. He's been lethal in his home starts where he posts a 1.57 ERA and that is no coincidence as he posted a 3.19 ERA in his home starts a year ago. Over the last three years he also has a much lower ERA during day starts (0.70 lower) and posts an ERA under 3 for day starts this year. He's backed by a top 5 bullpen and the Pirates are #1 with a 2.45 ERA during day games this year where they are 7-9. It's also not like the Reds are killing the ball against RHP.

The Reds are still only ranked 21st in OPS vs. RHP and McDonald has 4 career home starts against them and posts a 1.90 ERA. On the flip side Bronson Arroyo making the start for the Reds posts a 5.12 ERA during the day this year and in his last two starts vs. the Pirates he's struggled giving up 10 ER in 11 innings while allowing 20 base runners to reach base. He also gave up 4 HR in those two starts as well. Though the Pirates have struggled regularly to score runs they came out and scored 10 on Sunday.

Notable Hot Starters:
Cole Hamels (3-0, 1.00 WHIP, 1.64 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (2-1, 1.22 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Felix Doubrant (2-1, 1.19 WHIP, 2.04 ERA)
Scott Diamond (2-1, 1.31 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Chris Sale (2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.08 ERA)
Kevin Millwood (3-0, 0.64 WHIP, 0.41 ERA)
Phil Hughes (2-1, 1.21 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Out of the three pitchers that are cold with ERA's over 6 in their last three starts combined I give Alex White of the Rockies the best chance to win. For one the Rockies are at home where their bats seem to do magic and are facing a team they can actually beat in the Astros. Then again if the Rockies win game 1 of the double header I"m not so sure my money would be on the other side as I'm never confident in any team completing a double header sweep. It's just too hard to do these days.

Notable Cold Starters:
Barry Zito (2-1, 1.60 WHIP, 6.91 ERA)
Jeff Suppon (0-3, 1.85 WHIP, 6.32 ERA)

Jim Feist

Orioles vs Blue Jays
Pick: Over

Toronto had been doing pretty well in the AL East, but a five game slide capped off by Sunday's 12-6 loss to Texas now has the Jays back to 500. The Jays return home today with a chance to cut into first place Baltimore's AL East division lead of five games over the Jays. It starts tonight with Drew Hutchison on the mound. Hutchison is 3-2 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Hutchison had two excellent starts before his last game where he got touched-up for six earned runs over just four innings of work. Tommy Hunter will get the nod for the O's. Hunter is 2-2 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Hunter is also coming off a tough start, allowing five earned runs and nine hits over just six innings. Neither of these pitchers is very good and I look for runs to be flying here today. I'm taking the OVER.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

The surprising Pirates are finally getting a little offense, and are now at nearly .500. I'll give red hot James McDonald an edge over Bronson Arroyo, so I'm backing the Pirates again today.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ Boston Over 180: Boston showed at times that they will run and they will need to in this series if they hope to keep pace with the Heat. Miami has averaged 100.2 ppg at home this year, including 99.2 ppg at home in the playoffs. They also come in having averaged 107 ppg in their last 3 games vs a good Indiana defensive team. This team is rolling right now and should get plenty of points tonight vs an aging Boston team that may be a bit tired after going 7 games with the Sixers. Boston showed that they can ruin and put up some points on a good defense as they did hit the century mark twice vs the Sixers and they should be able to hit at least the 91 ppg that they have averaged on the road this year. Yes both teams do play very good defense, but I see this game as an uptempo game that should have both offenses putting up 90+ points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +118 over MIAMI

Jordan Zimmermann pitched well in two starts vs. Miami last season. He's always had pinpoint control and the ability to induce groundballs (50% groundball rate) to form a solid skill set. Zimmerman has allowed one earned run in six of his nine starts and his 2.47 ERA is one of the best among qualified starters in the NL. His 3-4 record is the direct result of poor run support and he certainly offers up more value than his counterpart, Carlos Zambrano. Excessive early career workload caught up to him a couple of years ago and he’s been unable to recapture the form he showed in his heyday. Zambrano has average skills right across the board, aside from a strong 50% groundball rate. However, he’s not had a GB % this high in seven years and it could just be an aberration, as he’s not added anything notable to his repertoire. He was rocked by Colorado (in Miami) in his last start and that could be a sign of things to come. The Nationals are warming up again with a weekend sweep over the Braves and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. Play: Washington +118 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +103 over TAMPA BAY

The White Sox are not only scorching hot right now but they’re seeing beach balls at the dish. After scoring 35 runs in a three-game sweep of the Indians, they suddenly find themselves within a half game of first place. The Chisox have scored six or more runs in five straight and in seven of their past eight. They’ve batted .352 during this latest five-game winning streak and will now face a laboring Matt Moore here. There were high expectations for Moore this season but he has not lived up to them and his skills aren’t showing many reasons for optimism. He has a troublesome groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/19%/46%. He’s walking too many batters and his inability to get ahead in the count combined with that high fly-ball rate has caused Moore to be taken deep eight times in nine starts. Chris Sale has transitioned to being a starter well. His dominant skills as a reliever have followed him. Sale has 48 K’s against just 14 walks in 50 IP. His groundball rate is 48% and his skills have him firmly among the top starters in the league. With their ace going and with the way they’re hitting right now, we have no hesitation in pulling the trigger on this sizzling visitor. Play: Chicago +103 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Yankees +133 over L.A. ANGELS

The Yankees are coming on with five wins in a row. They’re hitting .284 over that stretch while scoring 17 times over the weekend at pitcher-friendly Oakland. After a slow start in April, Phil Hughes has turned it on in May, where he is 3-2 in five starts and has a 3.45 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. His overall ERA of 4.94 has him undervalued here but Hughes is enjoying a skill rebirth so far in 2012. His velocity is up on his fastball from 91.2 in 2011 to 92.4 MPH this season. He’s struck out 46 in 47 frames while walking just 14. Current Yanks have seen Jared Weaver plenty of times with 233 career AB’s against him in which they’ve hit a combined .262 with 19 home runs. The Angels are enjoying their own six-game winning streak but it came against Seattle and Oakland that pair is among the bottom feeders in terms of offense. Prior to playing the A’s and M’s, the Halos lost a series to the Padres. In summarizing, they’ve played nine straight against weak hitting opponents and they take a big step up in class in facing this offense. Not often do we get a take-back like this one on the Yankees and we’ll look to take advantage. Play: N.Y. Yankees +133 (Risking 2 units).

JEFF BENTON

Your Monday freebie is the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Giants return home after a winning road trip - 4-3 in their games at Miami and Milwaukee - and I am going with starter Barry Zito to tighten things up against the Diamondbacks. Zito is 2-1 his last three starts, but the southpaw has allowed 11 runs his last 14-plus innings worked.

One of the wins in that three game span is a six inning, three run victory over the same D-Backs club he is facing today.

Trevor Cahill will counter, and Cahill did lose to the Giants the last time he faced them on May 12th, getting tagged for six hits and four runs in just under six innings of work.

Arizona comes into this road game with a two game winning streak, but they have dropped two of the last three versus San Francisco.

Going to side with the Giants in the small home underdog role to open this set with the victory.

1♦ SAN FRANCISCO

CRAIG DAVIS

It's just hard to pick against the Dodgers at home, period.

Los Angeles fans thought they might take it on the chin when Matt Kemp went down, but they've just kept plugging along, averaging 4.8 runs per game while winning 9 of the last 13. Jerry Hairston had a career-high five hits in Sunday's 5-1 win and it seems like a new player every game that steps up in Kemp's absence.

Granted, it's going to be tougher against a pitcher like Shaun Marcum on the hill against the Dodgers today, but even when the odds seem to be against them, they find a way to get it done. Like I said, you can never count out the Dodgers at home as they have only five losses there all year.

That's impressive.

I'm also banking on the fact that even though Marcum is pitching quite well this year, the starting staff has posted as 5.46 ERA over their last 11 games... and they've dropped eight of those 11.

Aaron Harang (3-2, 4.36), didn't have a great outing Tuesday at Arizona, but he is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts vs. the Brew Crew since the start of the 2011 season.

Sorry Brewers fans, I see another Dodgers home win here... take the Dodgers as your free play of the day.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS

ANTHONY REDD

29-18-1 run with my comp plays following Sunday's winner on the Yankees at Oakland.

Going to back the Dodgers (-105) today against visiting Milwaukee.

LA hasn't skipped a beat despite missing Matt Kemp, going 9-4 minus their injured clean-up hitter while averaging 4.8 runs a game.

The Dodgers are 21-5 at home this season, winning 10 of their last 12. Today's opponent, Milwaukee, is 8-15 on the road. Pretty much sums up the difference between these two teams, right?

The Brewers are 2-8 in Shaun Marcum's starts this season. At this price, I'm more than willing to back LA at home to see that record fall to 2-9.

4♦ LA DODGERS