MATT RIVERS
Now for Monday's free play, and I will side with the Chicago White Sox to come through at Tampa Bay.
Chicago is feeling pretty good about themselves right now, as Robin Ventura's club just swept the first place Cleveland Indians, and they have won five straight and nine of their last ten games as they head into Tropicana Field to face a Tampa Bay squad that just took two of three up in Boston against their division-rival.
The pitching matchup favors a play on the Pale Hose, as Chicago starter Chris Sale is a fine 5-2 this year and sports a 2.50 ERA. His counterpart Matt Moore has struggled in his first full season up with the big club, as Moore is just 1-4 for the year with an over 5 ERA.
Moore's last win comes on May 1st, and I have a feeling he will have to wait another five days before he gets a shot at winning his next game.
Go with the ChiSox to open this series with the win tonight.
1♦ WHITE SOX
Jack Jones
Miami Marlins -114
I like the Miami Marlins in today's spot to beat the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are certainly in a letdown situation after their rare National TV appearance last night, which resulted in a 7-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves.
Miami starter Carlos Zambrano has found a home in Miami. He has seemed to return to his old self, going 2-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.117 WHIP through nine starts this season. Jordan Zimmerman is having a solid season as well, but he struggles against today's opposition.
Zimmerman has never beaten Miami, going 0-2 with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts against the Marlins. He allowed 6 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 2-11 loss in his last start against them. Zambrano is 8-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 13 career starts against Washington.
Zambrano is 24-9 against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997. Washington is 15-34 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Miami is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Marlins Monday.
Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Angels -128
The red-hot Angels have the edge at home tonight with ace Jered Weaver on the hill. Weaver, who is 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA through 10 starts, has been unhittable at home where he is 4-0 with an ERA of 0.83 in 4 starts. Weaver has also had success against the Yankees. The Angels are 5-0 all-time in Weavers' home starts vs. New York. The Yankees' Phil Hughes has been at his worst on the road where he is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.12 in 4 starts. He also hasn't had much luck against the Halos, going 1-2 (1-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 8.70. The Angels are 24-11 in their last 35 at home versus the Yanks. Take L.A.
David Banks
Miami Heat -7.5
The Boston Celtics (47-32, 40-37-2 ATS) finally prevailed in seven games vs. the pesky 76ers Saturday, but Boston is shooting the ball miserably and is banged up, which is not how you want to enter a series with the Miami Heat (54-23, 40-37 ATS). The Heat were the favorites to win the East before these playoffs started and they showed why in the last 2 games of their series with the Pacers when Indiana was on the verge of taking a 3-1 series lead. Expect to see the fully motivated Miami team that closed out that series in every game of these Eastern Conference Finals, which begin on Monday night from American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL at 8:30 ET on ESPN.
The Celtics had trouble putting Philadelphia away in Game 7 despite several moments where they had chances to build on leads that would have taken the Sixers' hearts away. In fact, Philadelphia got to within four points wit a little more than 5:00 left before Boston finally pulled away for good to the 85-75 triumph, with large help from Ray Allen hitting his only two three-point shots of the game in seven attempts in those waning moments. Allen is obviously bothered by his ankle spurs that will likely require surgery when these playoffs are over, but he has no choice but to play with significantly more limited mobility than usual, as Boston is thin at the guard spot with Avery Bradley out until well into next season due to shoulder surgery. The Celtics followed up their horrific 33.3 percent shooting performance in Game 6 by shooting a still less-than-mediocre 42.5 percent on Saturday, and they will need to improve on that to compete with a team of the Heat's caliber. The question is, can they vs. a Miami defense that is allowing 85.5 points per game on 41.1 percent shooting in the playoffs, especially with the Heat not having to worry about Allen that much?
The Heat were essentially a two-man show in the last three games vs. the Pacers, but when those two men are two of the very best players in the NBA in LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, that is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, Miami may have played its best two games of the season to close out that series despite two guys carrying 90 percent of the offensive load, as the Big Two did not miss many shots and every player on the court was able to play defense without feeling any pressure to score. There is even some question as to whether a return by the injured third member of the Big Three, Chris Bosh, may actually hurt the team right now, as it has been clicking on all cylinders lately and Bosh will be looking to take his share of shots when he comes back. Still, the Heat are deservedly prohibitive favorites to win this series, and having a few extra days off while the aging Celtics played until Saturday is an added bonus for Game 1.
These teams met in the playoffs last season with Miami taking out a much stronger Boston team than this one out in five games. However, the Celtics did win three of the four regular season meetings this year, winning the last three matchups after the Heat won the first meeting of the season. Then again, it is fairly clear that Miami just cruised through the regular season and that it has been able to flip the switch and take its game to a whole new level when necessary during these playoffs.
John Ryan
Baltimore Orioles at Blue Jays
Prediction: Blue Jays
5* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays using the money line AND a 5* graded play using the RUN LINE as they take on the Baltimore Orioles set to start at 7:05 PM ET. This play was outlined in my betting ticket weekend report and now I will provide you with the detail supporting this Contrarian Play on Toronto. Baltimore has lost two in a row and several of my contrarian articles have focused on their staying power to be atop the American League East standings. Toronto is a solid team, but has lost five straight games. Someone?s losing streak is going to end and I strongly believe it will be the Blue Jays.
The Orioles two losses combined with a Tampa Bay Rays win Sunday has both teams tied for the Al East division lead. Toronto sit si fourth place of the five team division and trail the Orioles and Rays by five games. So, despite the five-game losing streak, Toronto is still in solid position with a 24-24 record to make a playoff run.
Hunter has been on my Black list as a starter that had reached unsustainable levels and was prone to a series of starts more reflective of his average start. This is not suggesting that he is a poor starter headed for a minor league rehab assignment, but rather that he had just reached unsustainable pitching levels.
Since publishing that article, Hunter has posted a 1-2 team record with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.211 WHIP in his last three starts. He has struggled even more in road starts posting a 7.43 ERA with a 1.652 WHIP allowing seven home runs and recording 13 strikeouts spanning four starts and 23 innings worked. Moreover, he is 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP in eight career starts against Toronto.
Supporting and reinforcing this graded play is a money line system that has produced a solid 96-47 record for 67% winners since 2006. Play against any AL team with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season.
Here is a RUN LINE system that has produced a solid 82=42 record and has made 37.2 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on any team against a 1.5 run line and after allowing 12 runs or more and is now facing an opponent after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. At the time of this writing Monday morning ET, the current run lines are averaging +145 for a -1 ? Toronto play.
Toronto is in a series of strong game situations and roles that support the graded play using the money line. The Blue Jays are a solid 24-10 making 16.9 units per one unit wagered using the money line with a tired bullpen after three straight games throwing four or more innings since 1997; 26-13 making 15.3 units per one unit wagered using the money line after three or more consecutive losses spanning the last three seasons.
Toronto is a solid 21-10 against the run line making 14.9 units) in home games when facing solid power teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs game over the last three seasons. Moreover, they are a solid 17-4 against the run line making 15.4 units per one unit wagered after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more over the last three seasons.
Dave Price
LA Dodgers -108
I'll take the Dodgers, who are 21-5 at home, versus the Brewers, who are 8-15 on the road. The Brewers, who have lost 8 of their last 11 overall, are 3-13 in Marcum's last 16 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. The Dodgers are 3-0 in Harang's last 3 starts. Plus, he is 4-0 on the money line in his last 4 starts versus Milwaukee. Take the Dodgers.
Harry Bondi
Chicago White Sox +105
The Chicago White Sox are red hot right now having won 9 of their last 10 and send their best pitcher, Chris Sale, to the mound this afternoon to face a Tampa squad coming off a draining series with Boston. Rays have not fared well against southpaws this season going just 2-7 so far and send disappointing Matt Moore to the hill. Much was expect of Moore but he has struggled with his command and is constantly working deep into counts which runs up his pitch count and takes him out early in ballgames. Let's back the hottest team in baseball right now with their best pitcher on the mound and as a short dog. Take the White Sox over the Rays.
Tony Stoffo
White Sox vs. Rays
Play: Under 7.5
My top rated total play for today goes here on the Under as the White Sox and Rays match-up. Everything I looked at including Bio charts and trends all point towards a lower scoring game in this spot. Plus let's not forget that both of these lineups have never faced today's starters - which means a huge edge towards a lower scoring game today. Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 7-1-3 in Rays last 11 Monday games. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Under is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Jeff Alexander
Seattle Mariners +185
The Mariners are showing value at this price given the strong current form of scheduled starter Kevin Millwood and the inconsistencies of Texas' Matt Harrison. Millwood has been unbelievable over his last 3 starts, going 3-0 with an ERA of 0.41 and a WHIP of 0.636. He shut down this Texas club in his most recent win, allowing no runs on 3 hits in 6 innings. He has also been strong on the road, as evidenced by his 1.78 road ERA. The Rangers have lost 4 of Harrison's last 6 starts. They have also lost 3 of his 4 home starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.24. We'll take the Mariners at a very nice price.
Jorge Gonzalez
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
The Dodgers have been winning despite numerous injures to the roster. The Dodgers are 15-4 on their home field. Over the last five games, the Dodgers are batting .310 are averaging 5.1 runs per game. Take the Dodgers!