SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (4-2 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
The top-seeded Cavaliers look to maintain home-court advantage when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics in Game 2 of the best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland found itself in trouble in the third quarter of Game 1, trailing 69-58, but it finished the quarter on a 21-9 tear to get the lead and went on to a 101-93 victory Saturday, barely covering as a seven-point home favorite. LeBron James, named the league MVP on Sunday for the second straight year, had 35 points and seven assists, and the Cavs shot 48.7 percent (38 of 78). Cleveland also made 31 trips to the free-throw line, making 21, while Boston was 17 of 21 from the charity stripe.
Rajon Rondo (27 points, 12 assists) and Kevin Garnett (18 points, 10 rebounds) each had double-doubles for Boston, which went 36 of 81 from the floor (44.4 percent) but hit just 4 of 16 from three-point range (25 percent).
Cleveland is a stout 39-6 SU at home this year, but is just 19-26 ATS (2-3 ATS in the playoffs), averaging 103.1 points per game on 49.6 percent shooting while giving up 94.3 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting. Boston is 27-17 on the highway (22-21-1 ATS), putting up 97.9 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and allowing 94.6 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting.
The Cavs have owned this rivalry lately, going 19-7-2 ATS in the 28 meetings (3-2 this season), including 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes at the Q. The home team and the chalk are 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups, and Cleveland is on a 7-1 ATS run in playoff games against Boston (6-0 last six), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all five meetings this season and eight straight overall.
Despite the non-cover in Game 1, the Celtics remain on pointspread upswings of 9-4-1 as a postseason underdog, 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss and 23-11 when catching five to 10½ points, though they are also on ATS dives of 1-4 as an underdog overall, 4-14 in second-round contests and 6-17-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cavaliers are still on ATS slides of 5-11 overall (3-6 last nine), 1-6 against winning teams, 2-7 after a SU win and 4-9 as a favorite. However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 18-5-1 in second-round playoff games and 18-7-1 as a playoff chalk.
The under is 17-6 in Cleveland’s last 23 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 11-1 against Atlantic Division foes, 8-2 as a playoff favorite, 6-0 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and 5-1 after a SU win. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 11-4 overall, 5-1 on the road, 7-1 against the Central Division, 7-1 as a pup and 6-2 as a playoff ‘dog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in all five meetings this season and is 6-1 in the last seven contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) at Phoenix (4-2 SU and ATS)
The seventh-seed Spurs, fresh off an upset of second-seeded Dallas, make the trek to the desert for Game 1 of their best-of-7, second-round series against the third-seeded Suns at U.S. Airways Center.
San Antonio dumped the Mavericks in six games in the first round, capped by Thursday’s 97-87 home victory as a 4½-point chalk. Manu Ginobili had 26 points, and rising young star George Hill poured in 21, while Tim Duncan added 17 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. The Spurs won by double digits despite blowing all of a 22-point lead and shooting just 19 of 31 from the free-throw line (61.3 percent).
The Spurs shot 45.9 percent in the opening round and held Dallas to 42.9 percent shooting.
Phoenix also went six games in its first-round series against Portland, finishing off the Blazers with Thursday’s 99-90 road victory as a 1½-point underdog. Jason Richardson paced the Suns with 28 points, hitting 10 of 16 overall and 5 of 8 from long distance. Phoenix shot 47.3 percent from the field (35 of 74), including 12 of 23 from beyond the arc (52.2 percent). For the series, the Suns shot 47.2 percent and limited Portland to 43 percent shooting.
San Antonio is 22-22 SU and ATS on the road this season (1-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), putting up an average of 96.9 ppg (45.4 percent shooting) and yielding 95.5 ppg (44.3 percent shooting). Phoenix is 34-10 (27-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys (2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs, scoring a whopping 112.3 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting and allowing 102.6 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting.
Phoenix has cashed in all three meetings this season in this rivalry (2-1 SU), winning and covering in both contests in the desert, including a 112-101 victory as a six-point chalk on April 7. These two teams met in the first round two seasons ago, with the Spurs advancing 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS), and in the second round three years ago, with San Antonio winning in six games (3-2-1 ATS). Also, the SU winner is 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes between these two.
The Spurs are on ATS upticks of 21-9-1 overall, 4-1 on Monday and 4-1 in conference semifinal games, but are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a playoff pup and 1-5 ATS in their last six after a break of three days or more.
The Suns are on several ATS rolls, including 29-11-1 overall, 15-5-1 at home, 16-5 against the Southwest Division, 20-7-1 as a favorite and 15-6-1 after a spread-cover. That said, Phoenix is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 18 after a break of three days or more and 2-8 as a playoff chalk of less than five points.
San Antonio is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 6-0-1 overall (all against the Mavericks), 23-9-2 on the highway, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-0 in second-round games, 4-0-1 as a ‘dog, 8-1-1 as a playoff pup, and 13-3-2 getting points on the road. The under for Phoenix is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, but the Suns also sport “over” streaks of 5-2 at home (all as a chalk), 10-4 in second-round playoff games and 9-4 against the Southwest Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings overall, including all three this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (17-8) at Philadelphia (14-10)
The Cardinals kick off a seven-game trip to Pennsylvania when they send red-hot rookie Jaime Garcia (2-1, 1.04 ERA) to the hill opposite the Phillies’ Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05 in 2009), who is slated to come off the disabled list and make his 2010 debut in the opener of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
Chris Carpenter and two relievers combined on a three-hit shutout Sunday, leading St. Louis past Cincinnati, 6-0. With the win, the Cardinals finished off a solid 6-1 homestand and won for the seventh time in their last eight games. Tony LaRussa’s squad, which has the National League’s best record, is on additional outstanding runs of 6-1 as a favorite, 5-0 versus N.L. East foes, 10-1 on Monday and 28-8 in series openers.
The Phillies hit two home runs – including a grand slam by Shane Victorino – in a nine-run fourth inning to rally past the Mets 11-5 on Sunday night, winning the first series of a 10-game homestand. Although it scored blowout victories on Saturday (10-0) and Sunday, Philadelphia has still dropped eight of its last 14 contests since starting the season 8-2, going 2-3 at home during this stretch. The Phillies have also lost four of five to left-handed starters, four of five at home versus southpaws and four straight series openers, but on the positive end they’ve won 35 of 52 against the N.L. Central and 24 of 32 on Monday.
These teams faced off just five times last year, with the Phillies winning four of the five contests, and going back to 2008, they’ve won eight of the last 10 series clashes, going 4-1 at home. In last year’s four wins over St. Louis, Philadelphia tallied 39 runs.
Garcia delivered yet another stellar effort in his most recent outing on Wednesday, holding the Braves to just four hits and one walk in seven scoreless innings en route to a 6-0 home victory. The left-hander has allowed a total of three earned runs in 26 innings, going exactly six innings in his two road starts (at San Francisco, at Milwaukee) and seven innings in his two home contests. Furthermore, Garcia has permitted just 25 baserunners (16 hits, nine walks) with 17 strikeouts in 26 innings.
Blanton has been on the shelf all season recovering from a strained left abdominal muscle. His last appearance was in the World Series against the Yankees on Nov. 1, when he started and gave up four runs on six hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in Philadelphia’s 7-4 home loss. Over his final six outings of 2009 (four starts, two relief appearances), the veteran right-hander gave up 19 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings (6.26 ERA).
In 16 regular-season home starts last year, Blanton went 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA. Also, he’s 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three all-time appearances against the Cardinals. Two of those three wins came last year, with Blanton holding St. Louis to a total of three runs in 14 innings in leading Philadelphia to a 6-1 road win and a 9-2 home victory.
St. Louis brings a slew of “under” trends into this four-game series, including 7-2-1 overall, 7-3 on the road, 7-0 in series openers, 12-3-1 versus winning teams and 8-3 on Monday, and all four of Garcia’s starts this year have stayed low. On the flip side, it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia, including 36-16-2 overall, 16-5-2 at home, 8-2 against N.L. Central teams, 6-1 on Monday and 7-2 as an underdog.
Finally, the over is 13-6-2 in the last 21 Phillies-Cardinals clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (16-10) at Minnesota (16-9)
The top two teams in the A.L. Central begin a three-game series at the new Target Field in Minneapolis, with Scott Baker (2-2, 5.72 ERA) scheduled to toe the slab for the Twins opposite Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer (1-1, 4.23) in a pitching rematch from last week.
Justin Verlander went 8 1/3 strong innings Sunday, giving up just a single run on three hits and no walks in helping Detroit to a weekend sweep of the Angels with a 5-1 victory. The Tigers have won a season-high five straight games (all at home), and they’re 9-3 in their last dozen contests (4-2 on the road). Additionally, they’re on stretches of 7-3 against division rivals and 4-1 as an underdog, but Detroit has also lost 29 of 43 as a road ‘dog and five of six when opening a series.
The Twins return home after capping a nine-game road trip with Sunday’s 9-3 victory in Cleveland. Minnesota was a mediocre 5-4 on the trip – including losing two of three in Detroit – but the Twins’ first ever homestand at Target Field was a success, as they went 6-3. Minnesota enters this series on impressive runs of 16-5 at home (including the Metrodome), 27-11 against A.L. Central foes, 25-17 versus right-handed starters, 20-6 in series openers, 22-6 as a favorite and 6-1 on Monday.
These division rivals met last week in Motown, with the Twins winning the opener 2-0 and Detroit coming back to score victories of 11-6 and 3-0. Last year, Minnesota took 11 of the final 17 meetings with the Tigers, including a 6-5, 12-inning home victory in a one-game playoff to determine the division champ. Also, no team was happier to see the Twins depart their old home than the Tigers, who lost 62 of their last 90 games inside the Metrodome.
Scherzer, who’s in his first year with Detroit, is coming off his worst outing of the season, as he squandered six runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Twins on Wednesday. However, the Tigers’ offense bailed him out and ended up rolling to an 11-6 home win. Despite that result, Scherzer’s teams (Detroit and Arizona) are just 2-7 in his last nine starts dating to September.
Scherzer’s been at his best on the road so far, going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts, pitching at least six innings in all three contests. Last week’s start against Minnesota was the first time in the right-hander’s young career that he’s faced the Twins.
Baker started opposite Scherzer on Wednesday and got torched for five runs on nine hits in four innings, and he’s now had back-to-back poor outings – both against division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland) – yielding 11 runs on 19 hits in 9 2/3 innings. At home this year, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in three games.
Despite his last two poor efforts, with Baker starting the Twins are still on positive runs of 11-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 36-16 as a favorite, 12-3 as a home chalk, 5-1 in series openers and 13-4 versus division rivals. Baker is also now 5-4 with a 4.60 ERA in 18 career starts against the Tigers, including getting a no-decision in last year’s one-game playoff for the division title.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 4-0-1 on the road, 4-1-1 as an underdog, 3-0-1 as a road pup, 5-2 versus A.L. Central competition and 8-1 on Monday. Additionally, when Baker pitches, the over is on tears of 5-1-2 overall, 15-7-2 at home, 6-1-1 in series openers and 20-7-2 versus division rivals. However, the under is 5-0-2 in Minnesota’s last seven Monday contests and 5-0-1 in Baker’s last six on Monday.
Finally, the under was 4-1-1 in the last six Metrodome meetings between these two in 2009, but the over has cashed in eight of Baker’s last nine starts against Detroit, with four of his last five at home versus the Twins flying high.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
San Antonio at Phoenix
The Suns look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 home games as a favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4)
Game 705-706: Boston at Cleveland (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.362; Cleveland 128.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6); Under
Game 703-704: San Antonio at Phoenix (10:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.780; Phoenix 131.911
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 11; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4); Under
MLB
St. Louis at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to build on their 11-1 record in their last 12 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Philadelphia is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115)
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.499; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.650
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Under
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 15.168; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.875
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Under
Game 905-906: Arizona at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Valdez) 13.672; Houston (Paulino) 13.720
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); Over
Game 907-908: Colorado at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.612; San Diego (Correia) 15.125
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Under
Game 909-910: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.610; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.347
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-310); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-310); Under
Game 911-912: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 14.467; Cleveland (Talbot) 15.444
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Over
Game 913-914: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 13.872; Boston (Buchholz) 15.095
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Under
Game 915-916: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.963; White Sox (Peavy) 15.973
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-175); Over
Game 917-918: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.743; Minnesota (Baker) 16.232
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over
Game 919-920: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harden) 14.581; Oakland (Braden) 15.131
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Under
NHL
Vancouver at Chicago
The Canucks look to follow up their 5-1 win in Game 1 and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games after scoring 5 goals or more in the previous game. Vancouver is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+150)
Game 63-64: Philadelphia at Boston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.570; Boston 13.477
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over
Game 65-66: Vancouver at Chicago (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 13.151; Chicago 12.400
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+150); Over
Rob Vinciletti
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Over 8.5
This game fits a nice system that has won 9 of the last 10 times. What we want to do is play over the total for road teams like the Blue Jays, that are off a home win of 5 or more runs vs an opponent off a home dog loss of 2 or more runs. The Blue Jays have lefty Cecil on the mound tonight and he has a 5.40 road era. Toronto also has a poor road bullpen era at 6.87. The Indians have hit well in the past 7 games nearly .300. Look for both teams to put up some runs tonight in what should turn out to be a high scoring game.
BIG AL
Orioles @ Yankees
PICK: Over 9
The Orioles did something over the weekend that happens about as frequently as Halley's Comet. Baltimore swept the Red Sox in a three game series and are starting to look like the kind of team that folks had high hopes for coming out of Spring Training. They are in the back end of a 12-game stretch against the Yankees and Boston (six games against each of them) and with just this three game series in the Bronx left, the O's are actually sitting at 5-4. In fact, after a disastrous start of 2-16, the O's are now 7-18 and five of those victories have come against Boston and New York, so there is at least some optimism in Baltimore. But tonight will be tough as Jeremy Guthrie is going to try and put a horrible start behind him (7 ER in 4 2/3 INN), but it won't be easy as it's Yanks ace CC Sabathia's turn in the rotation. If nothing else, Guthrie should get some run support as in the last three games played in the Bronx in 2009, the O's scored a total of 20 runs. Guthrie is just 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 13 games against New York so he will likely need that kind of support if the O's are going to have a chance. The problem, however, is that in four starts against the O's last season, the Yankees scored a total of 36 runs for Sabathia. The over is 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings of these two teams. Take the 'over.'
David Chan
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Take the Orioles at better than +225, backing Jeremy Guthrie over CC Sabathia.
This one is purely about the price; the Orioles will likely lose but too big a number is on offer.
The Orioles are coming of a weekend sweep of the Boston Red Sox. Jeremy Guthrie is their best pitcher. His season ERA is a disappointing 4.70, but his 1.27 WHIP isn’t the end of the world. What Guthrie has suffered from the most is a lack of run support: the Orioles have posted only 13 runs in his five starts to date. Now that the Orioles are hitting a little, they’re worth a shot.
If you get more than +225, winning four games out of 13 is better than breakeven. The Orioles can win in this spot at that ratio, maybe even 5/13. These teams played a three-game set at Camden Yards last week and Baltimore won a game; Guthrie will be looking to do better in this rematch where CC out-duelled him in another game from that series.
Jim Feist
Mets vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
The NY Mets have found their offensive touch, sparking this nice run. They just had a stretch scoring 10, 7 and 9 runs in three straight games. Now they head to Cincinnati, a team with weak pitching and a small park conducive to hitting and home runs. NY lefty Oliver Perez continues to struggle with control, walking 14 in 21 innings, at 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA. The Reds go with Mike Leake who has walked 15 in 27 innings. You don't want to allow free passes in a small park like this. Play the NY Mets/Reds Over the total.
Jorge Gonzalez
Arizona D-Backs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Arizona D-Backs
The Arizona Diamondbacks are on a three game losing streak and will turn to the best pitcher in their minor leagues when they take on the hapless Houston Astros. Rookie Cesar Valdez will be making his Major League debut against the light hitting Houston Astros. Valdez will get the opportunity to stay in the majors if he can have some success. The D-Backs have posted an ERA of 9.00 over their last six games. The Pitching staff in ranked 29th in the majors with an ERA of 5.09. The Arizona offense have held up their end of the bargain by batting .277 and scoring 5.84 runs per game. The Astros offense can make any pitching staff look instantly better. Houston has a league low 72 runs. The Astros will send the struggling Felipe Paulino (0-0, 5.40 ERA) to the mound. The Astros have lost seven straight games from the NL West Division and have lost the last seven games that Paulino has started at home. The Astros have lost their sixth straight game and the D-Backs have won the last four meetings between the two teams. Take Arizona here as a slight favorite.
EZWINNERS
Colorado Rockies -155
There is no one in Major League Baseball pitching better than the Rockie's Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez extended his scoreless innings streak to 22 1/3 as he pitched six shutout innings in his last start against Arizona as the Rockies routed the Diamondbacks 12-1 on Tuesday night. Jimenez's scoreless innings streak is the longest in franchise history by a Colorado starter. San Diego's starting pitcher Kevin Correia is 4-1 this season, but Correia hasn't pitched six innings since his first start of the year. In route to his 4-1 record Correia has been the beneficiary of some nice run support so far this season which I don't see happening in this game. The Rockies are 4-1 in Jimenez's last five starts against the Padres and I expect them to win here. Play on Colorado.
JR O'Donnell
CWS / KAN Over 9.5
We are rolling the Over 9.5 here Monday as we note the 10-15 Chicago White Sox own the worst batting average @ 2.23 and tonight's Royals hurler is just what the doctor ordered for the Chicago Sox. Gas can Gill Meche (0-2, 10.13) is a on a terrible run and the Royals bullpen will be shelled after he get's rocked early. Looking at J Peavy (0-2, 7.85 ERA) he has been a huge bust and the (10-15) Royals will get to him. They have shown that they can hit the rock this young season. The line is @ 9.5 here Monday and we have it @ 10.6 runs. Let's look for 2 awful pitchers to get rocked tonight.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles 4-10 their last 14 games as underdogs. Starting pitcher Joe Saunders is 1-4 on the year. Saunders has allowed 8 runs in his last 7.2 innings of work. The Angels are 1-4 their last 5 games overall. Boston Starter Clay Buchholz has allowed just 11 runs in his 4 starts this year. The Red Sox are 122-60 their last 182 games as home favorites. The Sox are 4-1 vs. lefty starters. Boston is 11-4 in the last 15 starts made by Clay Buchholz. PLAY ON BOSTON
Scott Spreitzer
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
Righthander Cesar Valdez makes his Major League debut tonight and he couldn't have asked for a better team to do it against. Houston has averaged just 3.6 rpg in their last 53 home night games against righthanders. Valdez, a strikeout machine at Triple-A Reno (25 Ks in 23 2/3 IP) sports a 3.80 ERA this season. Felipe Paulino counters for the Astros. He gets little run support from his teammates, but it wouldn't matter much anyway. His four opponents have scored 27 runs, or 6.75 rpg in his starts this season. The Astros have lost all four games and Paulino has been tagged with a 5.40 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. In fact, Houston has won just 4 of Paulino's last 21 starts, overall. Houston enters Monday having won just 12 of their last 43 games going back to last season. Meanwhile, the D'backs have won four straight meetings
VEGAS EXPERTS
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Good pitching matchup here with Cecil and Talbot, but we’ll back the home side here behind Talbot, who has a 2.05 ERA on the season, and it’s even better at Progressive Field where he’s allowed just one earned run in nine innings. Cleveland’s bats are starting to warm up a bit, and even through Toronto put up nine runs yesterday, they haven’t been able keep the offensive momentum going after a big day at the plate. Cleveland has taken 10 of the last 15 games of this series, and we’ll back them here.
Play on: Cleveland Indians
Matt Fargo
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: New York Mets
After winning eight straight games, the Mets dropped the final two games over the weekend against the Phillies as they were mowed down by Roy Halladay and then Johan Santana was roughed up last night. This is a good opportunity to bounce back and get back into the win column. Oliver Perez certainly has not been the most efficient pitcher this season but his best start this season came on the road at St. Louis as he allowed just one run on four hits in 6.1 innings and that has been his only start away from home this season. Last year after coming back from injury, he was very solid away from New York as he posted a 3.42 ERA in four road outings. His last outing against the Reds last year was a poor one but prior to that, he allowed three runs or fewer in his five previous starts against Cincinnati, posting a 3.72 ERA over that span. He will be opposed by rookie Mike Leake who has been very solid with a 3.25 ERA in four starts. He does have a rather high 1.41 WHIP which is a cause for concern and his last home start was a bad one against the Dodgers as he allowed five runs on eight hits in seven innings. The Mets are 7-1 in their last eight games against right-handed starters while the Reds are 0-4 in their last four games as favorites between -110 and -150. Also, play on teams with a moneyline between +125 and -125 after a loss by six runs or more going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less two straight games. This situation is 89-49 (64.5 percent) since 1997. 3* New York Mets
Steve Merril
St Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia gets to face another tough left hander tonight in St. Louis’ Jaime Garcia who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA in four starts this season. But if you take a closer look, Garcia has done it against light hitting Atlanta, San Francisco, New York, and Milwaukee. This will be the lefty's first true test of the season, and he’s pitching in the bandbox of Citizen's Bank Park. The Cardinals are just 2-4 in Philadelphia over the last three seasons, and with Philadelphia hitting .266 at home and averaging 5.7 runs per game, St. Louis is in a tough spot tonight. Joe Blanton makes his season debut for the Phillies after being activated from the DL. It's good timing for the righty as he comes back in time to face St. Louis whom he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA against in his career. Last season, Blanton defeated the Cardinals twice giving up three runs and 11 hits in 14 innings of work. Albert Pujols (1-8), Ryan Ludwick (1-8), Yadier Molina (1-6), Tyler Greene (0-3), Jason LaRue (0-3) and Joe Mather (0-3) all have poor numbers against Blanton. The Cardinals are hitting .252 on the road this season, and since we think Blanton will make an instant impact for the Phillies, we’ll back the home underdog tonight.
BEN BURNS
Royals @ White Sox
PICK: Under 9.5
Admittedly, neither of these starters has gotten off to a very good start. In fact, they've both been pretty brutal. However, both have shown that they can get it done in the past and both figure to be highly motivated to turn things around, effective immediately. Given that these are two of the weaker offenses in baseball, this figures to be a good spot to do so.
The White Sox are currently the worst in the major leagues, in terms of number of hits per game. They enter the new week with just 7.2 hits per nine innings. The offense is averaging only 4.1 runs per game and that dips to a measly 3.5 (.212 average!) here at Chicago.
Like their hosts, the Royals are averaging only 4.1 runs per game. They're getting a couple more hits per game than the Sox but their 2.8 walks per game is tied for the second fewest in the American League, third fewest in the majors. Note that they managed a mere eight runs in their 4-game series at Tampa, including 0 yesterday.
The Royals aren't that familiar with Peavy, having only seem him once the past few seasons. He's faced them twice since 2004 and allowed just six hits in 10 1/3 innings, in those two games.
Meche has enjoyed success against the Sox. He's 8-3 with a 3.91 ERA in 17 starts against them. The 'under' was a profitable 11-6 in those games, including 6-1 the last seven. He had a 3.31 ERA in three starts against them last season, all three of which finished with nine or fewer combined runs.
The 'under' is 36-24-5 the last 65 times that KC played a road game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5 and I feel that those numbers have a strong shot at improving here. Consider the UNDER