Brad Diamond Sports
Play Kansas City over Chicago
Normally, the Royals are a horrid road entity, but they play into a Monday system with Meche that should make this encounter a surprising win for a suffering UNDERDOG.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels at BOSTON (-130)
Delivered a FREE winner on Sunday when the Hawks blew out the Bucks in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference series, and improved my FREE record to 88-70-3. Tonight I have a baseball winner for you as I go with the Red Sox at home against the Angels.
I’m playing the Red Sox tonight with right-hander Clay Buchholz on the hill. He’s been pitching his ass off lately and hasn’t got much support from his offense.
In his last three outings, Buchholz is 1-2 with a 1.83 ERA, allowing just four earned runs in the last 19.2 innings. But his Red Sox have lost 6-5, 3-0 and won 2-1 in those three starts. On Tuesday, Buchholz gave up just one run on seven hits over eight innings of a 2-1 victory over the Blue Jays. And against the Angels, he pitched well in last year’s playoff series, allowing two runs on six hits in five innings of a 7-6 loss.
On the mound for the Angels is lefty Joe Saunders who has been beaten up in his last two starts. In fact, the Angels are just 1-6 in the last seven starts for Saunders. Against Detroit on April 22, he gave up five runs on six hits in 2.2 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Tigers, then on Tuesday, he gave up three runs on nine hits in five innings of a 9-2 loss to the Indians.
Boston is 11-4 in Buchholz’s last 15 starts, 4-0 when he pitches Game 1 of a series and 8-2 against losing teams. The Angels are just 1-6 in Saunders’ last seven outings.
I’ll go with the Red Sox and Buchholz in this one!
4♦ BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Boston at CLEVELAND (-6')
For Monday night, going to lay the wood with the Cavaliers to claim a 2-0 series lead both straight up, and against the spread.
The Cavs came from 11 down at the half on Saturday to win Game 1, and they did wind up covering in that game, winning it by 8 as the 7-point choice. I don't think Cleveland will be playing from behind in this one, as I feel the Cavaliers definitely received their wake up call over the weekend.
Cleveland has dominated Boston to a tune of 7-1 against the spread the last 8 meetings at the Quicken Loans Arena, and the host in this series is on a 6-2 spread run the last 8 meetings overall.
Also the straight up winner has cashed the ticket in all 5 meetings this season, and 8 straight dating back to last year.
Those are tough numbers to ignore, so I won't.
Mark the G-Man down for a play on the favored Cavs in Game 2 of this series.
2♦ CLEVELAND
John Ryan
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: Baltimore Orioles
3* graded play on the Baltimore Orioles as they take on the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Rain is in the forecast with thunderstorms, but tonight looks favorable for this game to take place. Never under estimate the power of the dog in the money sports of the NHL and MLB. I had Montreal yesterday as a +260 dog winner and just last week nailed a +220 dog on the Pirates in MLB action. Here is another one of those plays. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 57-45 making 40.2 units since 1997. Play against home AL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher average hitting team batting = .265 to .279 facing a decent starting pitcher with a AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season. Yankees have not faired well agains similar starters like Guthrie. Yankees are 10-15 (-22.8 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts since 1997.
Rocketman
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -4
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS this year when playing with 3 or more days rest. Phoenix is 14-4 ATS this year against Southwest Division opponents. Phoenix is 18-7 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more in 2nd half of the season. Phoenix is 34-10 SU at home this year where they are scoring 112.3 points per game. Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Suns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Southwest. Suns are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Suns are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Suns are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. Suns are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. Suns are 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games overall. Suns are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. Western Conference. Suns are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win. Suns are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!
Craig Trapp
Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Play: Over 192
Surprised that these two teams have been scoring a bunch lately going over in game 1 and all 5 games this year head to head. No one can stop Lebron one on one for Celtics and as he gets double teamed watchout for the great three point shooter in CLE. BOS can't beat CLE with just one player like CLE can but together they can score with CLE. Rondo pushing the ball really was a problem for CLE in for most of Game 1. Look for more of the same from BOS and tonight might even be the night we see the upset from the Celtics. Either way like a low 200's score here as over crusies.
TEDDY COVERS
San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix
PICK: Phoenix -3.5
The betting markets are giving San Antonio a boatload of respect for tonight’s game at Phoenix. Bettors appear impressed with the Spurs ability to get past Dallas rather easily in the first round. And bettors certainly remember the success that the Spurs have had against the Suns in the playoffs, winning four playoff series between these two teams since 2003.
I’m not buying into either argument. This year’s Suns team is not the same team that lost those previous playoff series. Phoenix has a much deeper bench this year than in year’s past – Alvin Gentry’s rotation goes ten deep. When the reserves are getting playing time, Phoenix, not San Antonio, has the edge, in sharp contrast to where these teams have been in the past.
The Suns are also significantly better on the defensive end of the court than in recent years. Grant Hill shut down Andre Miller in the Suns series win against the Blazers, leading Phoenix to four wins in five games after he shifted over to guard Miller following Game 1’s loss. Hill: “I think we’ve learned that (defense) can be fun. We enjoy locking a team down. With that being said, obviously we’re going against one of the best half-court executing team, one of the best coaches out there. So we’re certainly going to be challenged, but I like where we are going into this series in terms of being prepared on both ends of the court.”
Hill is expected to match up with Manu Ginobili in this series. Phoenix head coach Alvin Gentry: “Guys, you know it’s all about Manu. When Manu goes, Tim is going to do what Tim does….” Even Amare Stoudamire is talking defense entering the series: “I’ve had great offensive games against the Spurs, but I think now defensively is where we’ve taken that next step, and it’s all about the team.”
The Spurs series win against the Mavs seems to have left them overvalued as well. Dallas has a long history of playoff failures –superstar Dirk Nowitzki simply hasn’t been able to will his team to victory-- and their offensive gameplan simply didn’t work against San Antonio’s defense. Phoenix hung 116, 110 and 113 on San Antonio, covering the spread in all three regular season meetings while winning both home games against the Spurs by double digit margins. Expect more of the same tonight. 2* Take Phoenix.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -125
Minnesota has won 14 of 19 home games against the Tigers the last 3 seasons, and this comes as no surprise when you consider how inconsistent the Tigers have been on the road and how consistent the Twins have been at home. The Tigers are just 16-37 in their last 53 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 while the Twins are 43-17 in their last 60 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. In fact, the Twins are 22-6 in their last 28 games as a favorite period. It's also nice to know that the Twins are 15-3 in Baker's last 18 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Twins.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -139
The Padres are smoking hot, but I believe Ubaldo Jimenez has what it takes to cool them off tonight. He is 5-0 on the season with an ERA of just 0.79, and he has been even better on the road with an ERA of 0.40. Oh yeah, might I mention that his ERA is 0.00 over his last 3 starts. In those games, the Rockies have won by a combined score of 18-1. In addition, Jimenez has had a great deal of success against the Padres. In fact, the Rockies are 4-1 in his last 5 starts against them. San Diego is just 2-18 in its last 20 games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, losing by an average score of 2.5 to 5.7 in these contests. Take the Rockies.
Jack Jones
Cardinals/Phillies UNDER 9.5
The Cardinals open a four-game set in Philly tonight, and Game 1 should be a pitcher's duel between Jamie Garcia and Joe Blanton. Garcia has been the Cardinals' best starter this year, going 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.962 WHIP through 4 starts. Joe Blanton makes his season debut, but he comes in with confidence knowing that he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. St. Louis.
This play also falls under a system that is 48-20 (71%) to the UNDER since 1997. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 9 runs or more. St. Louis has been pitching tremendous as a team, actually allowing 4 runs or less in 11 straight games. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in those 11 contests. Bet the UNDER Monday.
SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +1.19 over CINCINNATI
Oliver Perez is a pitcher that’s not worth getting excited over and there are plenty of concerns with him that include a lack of command but he has kept the damage to a minimum for the most part. Perez will face a line-up here that is not intimidating in the least and it’s worth noting that even though he’s having trouble finding the strike zone consistently, his BAA is just .244. What’s also worth noting is that the Reds offense is batting a collective .239, which is rather embarrassing when you consider they play half their games at a venue that inflates hits by 17% and homers by 26%. The Reds are 12-13 thus far but have three wins over Houston, two over the Cubs and two over the Marlins in which they allowed 14 runs but scored 16 and got very lucky in both of them. Rookie Mike Leake has very decent numbers but don’t be fooled. He’s faced the Cubbies, Astros and Pirates and when he faced the Dodgers he was rocked. Leake also has brutal command, as evidenced by his 15 walks and 18 K’s in 27 frames. At Great American Ballpark, a rookie pitcher with not so great stuff that is behind in the count too often is a disaster waiting to happen. Leake is really not that good at all and will very likely be exposed in a big way here. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.06 over CLEVELAND
Brett Cecil is one of the most promising young pitchers in the game. He’s made two starts thus far and while he showed flashes of brilliance last year, he looks so much more poised, confident and downright nasty this year. Cecil has also faced two tough lineups in Boston and Tampa Bay. In 12.2 frames he’s walked just two and struck out 11. He has both an impressive BAA of .234 and a WHIP of 1.03. Cecil will most certainly enjoy facing the Indians a whole lot more. In fact, in two starts against the Tribe last year Cecil posted an ERA of 0.69 in 13 innings. The Jays took three out of four from the A’s and it’s also worth noting that they’re 6-3 on the road. Mitch Talbot also has decent numbers but a correction could be forthcoming. You see, Talbot has just seven K’s in 26.1 innings and that tells us that the ball has been put in play almost every batter. He’s also walked 11 batters, which has led to an unsustainable 86% strand rate. Mitch Talbot was dealt to the Indians from Tampa Bay and he was “the player to be named later” in the deal. The Rays office is pretty sharp in terms of assessing young pitching talent and it’s unlikely they made that big an error with Talbot. Jays offense is more dangerous, its pen is superior to the Indians and they have a big edge on the mound. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Vancouver +1.47 over CHICAGO
Well, we all saw what happened to the Pens in game two after they dominated game one. They looked too easy and they lost outright. A similar situation presents itself here in that the Canucks won in very impressive fashion but the difference is that Vancouver has proven to be a huge threat to win it all and they’ve been on a serious roll since game three of the Kings series. Furthermore, Roberto Luongo was extremely sharp last game and if this guy has his groove back, and it appears like he does, than the Canucks are even more of a threat. Antti Niemi is definitely back in goal after allowing five goals in game one and who knows if he’s fragile or not. What we do know is that the Canucks are a very determined club that has a great offense and a great goalie. In fact, the Canucks scored more goals than the Blackhawks during the regular season and were second only to the Caps. They allowed more goals but Luongo was not sharp for a good portion of the year but again, he looks very sharp right now. So, the Canucks can take a stranglehold on this series and they’re not satisfied with winning just one game. They know how dangerous the Blackhawks are and they might even play better tonight. The Canucks carry a ton of momentum and confidence into this contest and you really have to like their chances of winning. At this price, they’re even more appealing. Play: Vancouver +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
GREG SHAKER
Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Under 6.5
Mr Shaker are you Nuts!! This is a rhetorical question and no time for that right now. Who's going to score runs here in this game? The Rocky pitcher is throwing BigTime Darts, allowing just 3 Earned Runs in over 34 innings of work and ZERO his last 3 starts. And doing that while not Pitching at Petco. Petco is a pitchers park. Did you know that? The SD Pitcher knows that and has allowed just 2 runs in 11.1 innings here this year. Both Bullpens doing quite spiffily right now with Rocky second line throwers posting an ERA of 2.95 over last 10 games while throwing at Coors Field. That is a hitter's park. Did you know that? SD relievers are even better with an ERA of 1.97 over their last 10 games. Saying that this Total offers value might be true, so I will say it. This Total offers value.